Westminster General Election 2024

[imtommygunn]

I am not sure on Lagan Valley and north belfast there. I would have my doubts SF will get in again in north belfast. In lagan valley maybe? (though maybe wishful) DUP may be ousted.

[Rois]

Lagan Valley boundaries have changed, now bringing in some of north Lurgan (I will now be voting in Lagan Valley). 
I voted in North Belfast last time when Dodds was ousted, I hope for the same luck in Lagan Valley this time round.

[Snapchap]

Some of the lads need to familiarise themselves with the term "the lesser of two evils". By their very nature no politician is going to tick every box but if you find yourself rooting for the Tory candidate *ever* then you need to take a look at yourself.

I haven't seen anyone here rooting for the Tory candidate. And there's no question that Labour is the lesser of two evils, but the point is that as far as Kier Starmer himself goes, you could barely more than slide a cigarette paper between himself and your average Tory.

[Tony Baloney]

Some of the lads need to familiarise themselves with the term "the lesser of two evils". By their very nature no politician is going to tick every box but if you find yourself rooting for the Tory candidate *ever* then you need to take a look at yourself.

I haven't seen anyone here rooting for the Tory candidate. And there's no question that Labour is the lesser of two evils, but the point is that as far as Kier Starmer himself goes, you could barely more than slide a cigarette paper between himself and your average Tory.

Some of the lads need to familiarise themselves with the term "the lesser of two evils". By their very nature no politician is going to tick every box but if you find yourself rooting for the Tory candidate *ever* then you need to take a look at yourself.

I haven't seen anyone here rooting for the Tory candidate. And there's no question that Labour is the lesser of two evils, but the point is that as far as Kier Starmer himself goes, you could barely more than slide a cigarette paper between himself and your average Tory.

Look back over recent history- Blair was voted in, Corbyn was not and there is a reason for that. Starmer clearly closer to Blair than Corby. despite being part of his team at one stage.

[armaghniac]

Some of the lads need to familiarise themselves with the term "the lesser of two evils". By their very nature no politician is going to tick every box but if you find yourself rooting for the Tory candidate *ever* then you need to take a look at yourself.

I haven't seen anyone here rooting for the Tory candidate. And there's no question that Labour is the lesser of two evils, but the point is that as far as Kier Starmer himself goes, you could barely more than slide a cigarette paper between himself and your average Tory.

The average Tory, as represented by people now driven out of the party, was fairly middle of the road, but the party left those behind in its recent governments. Someone close to middle ground is ideal.

[Deerstalker]

Not sure why some are getting so exercised about Starmer, he has never been in power so whatever he has said has had no effect on anyone.

On some issues he has had to align closer to the Tory position, if the issue is popular with voters. In others he will have to detach Labour from it and hammer the Tories, that's opposition for you.

You can't do anything if you aren't in power. He and Labour should be judged when they are in office.

[Orior]

I am not sure on Lagan Valley and north belfast there. I would have my doubts SF will get in again in north belfast. In lagan valley maybe? (though maybe wishful) DUP may be ousted.

SF would be strong favourites for North Belfast. They're very active on the ground and other parties have a despondency about them.

[lurganblue]

Corbyn standing as an Independent and not for ToryLite

[imtommygunn]

Hope he gets in.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

SF should be comfortable in North Belfast, boundary changes help. FST should be the same again boundary changes help I'm actually amazed with 20 yrs of demographic shift unionists still are competitive there. Turnout for Elliot amongst unionist must be very very high.
The other SF seats are nailed on
I think SDLP will hold their 2 seats but nothing like the majorities they had last time
Upper Bann and east Derry could be in play but nationalist turnout here for whatever reason is poor.
Alliance will win EB if long is standing and they will hold North Down. I think the gap in Lagan Valley is too big so will miss out there, they will also do well in East Antrim and Strangford.
UUP could win south Antrim.

Looking forward to it should be the most interesting Westminster election here for a while.

[naka]

wonder would sdlp look at south down and think we have a chance
weren`t too far away last time

[clonian]

wonder would sdlp look at south down and think we have a chance
weren`t too far away last time

I'd say the gap has grown since the last time. Who's going to stand that would make a difference?

[naka]

wonder would sdlp look at south down and think we have a chance
weren`t too far away last time

I'd say the gap has grown since the last time. Who's going to stand that would make a difference?

probably right, i am simply looking to see which constituencies could there be a shock.
 SF have a slicker operation but chris Hazard has fallen away, a few years ago he was front and centre of a fair bit of SF publicity.


 

[marty34]

wonder would sdlp look at south down and think we have a chance
weren`t too far away last time

I'd say the gap has grown since the last time. Who's going to stand that would make a difference?

probably right, i am simply looking to see which constituencies could there be a shock.
 SF have a slicker operation but chris Hazard has fallen away, a few years ago he was front and centre of a fair bit of SF publicity.


 

I've said this before. MPs in Westminister don't make a difference in reality.

Out of sight, out of mind. SF do the right thing.

I'd say, as a quiz, it'd be hard to name the 18 MPs from the north. Unless you're a political anarok. Stormont is local and in the news a lot more.

If you look at ni question time in London, there's about 5 people at it. Nobody cares.  Only people interested in being an MP is someone like the SDLP's Richie and unionists like Dodds etc. who want to get a title bestowed on them after their time in up.  That's what the senior DUP members are after - Paisley and Campbell.

Granted, people will vote in huge numbers but ultimately it's pointless.

[LCohen]

In 2016, against Hillary, Trump ran a very successful deterrence campaign.

Target voter turnout in groups that historically voted Democrat, by targeting individuals within each of those groups, who then repeat the negative messaging.

You will hear that Starmer essentially is Jeremy Corbyn. He isn't, Corbyn isn't in Starmer's party and is standing and campaigning against Starmer's party.

You will hear that Labour can't be trusted on economics as they will blow the budget and separately that they will do nothing different as they will stick to the Tory rules and therefore by implication, to Tory policies. It can't be both, and in fact it's neither.

You will hear that Labour have an open door policy on immigration. They won't.

You will hear that Labour will nationalise industries whilst at the same time breaking Starmer's leadership campaign promise to nationalise industries. It doesn't matter that the 2 can't both be true, as long as 2 different groups of voters believe that one of them is true.

The Tory election campaign, such as it is, is all about Starmer, possibly with a hint of Raynor. Be prepared for every manner of dirt to be flung at him. The Jimmy Saville stuff will resurface. The donkey field etc. expect more and more of this to pop up in social media rather than the traditional press. The latter don't like backing losers, and so whilst they dearly want a Tory victory, they know it isn't possible so they might go softer on Labour than you would imagine.

The Tory campaign has more money than ever before. It also has less canvassers than ever before and in some places is struggling for candidates. The rules have been changed to allow more money to be spent. This is Sunak vs Starmer and a central, media driven, rather than local, candidate driven election.

Of the many reasons being proffered as to why so many sitting Tory MPs are not seeking reelection, one that is not discussed is that a few of them don't want anything to do with the campaign, and the direction it is likely to go.