Stormont Assembly Elections 2017

[Applesisapples]

If I was SF I would go all out to win FST and maximise the SF vote, possibly ousting Ritchie in SD. As I said it matters not who from here sits in Westminister.

[seafoid]

What do SF MP's do once they are elected?

[Orior]

What do SF MP's do once they are elected?

Same as the rest of them - feck all!

One of your better punchlines.

[Dire Ear]

However Gildernew is capable of winning in FST no matter what the SDLP do (and they will stand)

How exactly, what are the figures?

[armaghniac]

An anti Brexit electoral approach is a sensible approach since this is the very reason for the election and the issue that will dominate the campaign more than any other. I'n not sure Westminister elections have an awful lot of significance in relation to the north in terms of policy implementation though other than to give a snapshot of electoral support at a given moment.

I think an anti Brexit pact would be wise, if a majority of pro Brexit MPs are returned then this will be used by some as justification for all sorts of crap. Getting SF in FST, SDLP in South Belfast and Alliance in E. Belfast should be a priority. If some independent ani Brexit unionists joined in, so much the better.  If Gildernew did not sit in parliament, she should be given an explicit anti Brexit role meeting people and campaigning. She was effective in Agriculture in NI and this is where the problem lies.

I'm a bit disappointed that no broad anti Brexit campaign has emerged, with nothing more than everyone sounding off from their own perspective.

[yellowcard]

However Gildernew is capable of winning in FST no matter what the SDLP do (and they will stand)

How exactly, what are the figures?

She would have a 50/50 chance (maybe slightly better) with an SDLP candidate running. It would probably be a guaranteed SF seat if the SDLP did not run a candidate.

Last election vote count:

Elliott             23,608
Gildernew      23,078
SDLP                2,732
Green                  788
Alliance                658

That was before Brexit and I'd expect the unionist candidate to suffer slightly because of that this time.   

[Owen Brannigan]

FST Results 2017 election:

SDLP   5,134
Sinn Féin   22,008
Traditional Unionist Voice   780
Ulster Unionist Party   6,060
Democratic Unionist Party   15,581
Conservatives   70
Labour Alternative   643
Alliance Party   1,437
Green Party   550

Unionist pact of TUV, UUP & DUP produces 22,421 compared to 22,008 for SF on a turnout of 72.6%.  However, some SDLP votes will go to SF candidate regardless of a SDLP candidate running.

[Owen Brannigan]

West Tyrone election results 2017 on 69.9% turnout

WT      
DUP   9064   
Ulster Unionist Party   3654
SDLP   6283   
Sinn Féin   21321   
TUV   851   
Alliance Party   1252   
CISTA   373   
Conservatives   27   
Green Party   412   
IND   864   
IND   98   
IND   85   
IND   41   

UUP, TUV and DUP will only muster 13569, so SF retain.

[Owen Brannigan]

Foyle election results 2017 on 65% turnout

SDLP   14,188
SF   16,350
PBP   4,760
DUP   5,975
UUP   1,660
AP   1,124
CISTA   196
Con   77
GP   242
IND   44

SDLP looks to be in trouble for Mark Durkan but the questions remain about how PBP voters will decide and whether SDLP can be rescued by votes from unionists and AP.  Turnout wasn't as high as other places in a high turnout election.

Possible SF gain and a target area for them.

[Owen Brannigan]

East Londonderry election results 2017

DUP   14,040   
UUP   2,814   
TUV   1,038   
IND   4,918   
SF   10,804   
SDLP   3,319   
IND   1,204   
PBP   492   
PUP   879   
GP   305   
AP   1,841   
Con   219   

A unionist pact of DUP, TUV, UUP & IND U produces 22,810.

Looks like Campbell has no worries even without any help from the unionist family.

[gallsman]

The chat of pacts is as depressing as it was two years ago. Tom Elliott is a gobshite of the highest order and a few on here have personal reasons to despise him but it matters not a jot whether it's him or Gildernew elected. If themmuns get to have their wee moment again, best just to laugh - Elliott is a joke.

SDLP have been vulnerable in Foyle and South Down for a long time now but their supporters there are loyal, so it wouldn't surprise me all that much if they managed to hang on yet again. Can't see them winning South Belfast again though. Alasdair has turned too many off him in the last couple of years.

[Owen Brannigan]

Mid Ulster election results 2017 on 72.4% turnout.

SDLP   6,419
SF   26,207
DUP   9,568
TUV   1,244
UUP   4,516
WP   217
AP   1,017
GP   243
IND   247

No worries for SF here.

[armaghniac]

The chat of pacts is as depressing as it was two years ago. Tom Elliott is a gobshite of the highest order and a few on here have personal reasons to despise him but it matters not a jot whether it's him or Gildernew elected. If themmuns get to have their wee moment again, best just to laugh - Elliott is a joke.

I think it does matter, if Elliot is going around stating that people in Fermanagh welcome Brexit then that is doing damage.

[gallsman]

Also, I saw Gerry Carroll going on about how Britain is a "failed state" and that PBP would stand behind Corbyn in socialist solidarity.

Given what's going on in Syria and Yemen, the rhetoric of "failed state" is a bit embarrassing.

[gallsman]

The chat of pacts is as depressing as it was two years ago. Tom Elliott is a gobshite of the highest order and a few on here have personal reasons to despise him but it matters not a jot whether it's him or Gildernew elected. If themmuns get to have their wee moment again, best just to laugh - Elliott is a joke.

I think it does matter, if Elliot is going around stating that people in Fermanagh welcome Brexit then that is doing damage.

Brexit is happening regardless - what he says or does (or doesn't do) will have negligible real impact for the constituents. In my opinion of course