The Super(ish) Leeds United Thread

[seafoid]

I think the fixes that Allardyce has imposed mean that Leeds are less likely to play like a trapdoor team. None of the other condemned have changed style for the run in. This may be important.

[seafoid]

Wins for Forest and Everton

[Rufus T Firefly]

Wins for Forest and Everton

And both huge victories. A real sense now that the walls are closing in. Forest was always likely to happen, but the fact that Everton went to Brighton and won 5-1 was a shock. The pressure is now on Leeds to take at least four points - which obviously includes a win - and even then it is likely to not be enough. Leeds really have to try and match Everton and beat Newcastle at home this weekend. A very tough ask.

[seafoid]

A draw against Newcastle is impressive
https://www.bbc.com/sport/live/football/65430059

[Hound]

A draw against Newcastle is impressive
https://www.bbc.com/sport/live/football/65430059

Two points dropped. If Bamford had scored his peno, it most likely would have been 2-0 at half time and Leeds strong favs. But at least they showed a bit of fight to ensure it was just 2, and not 3, points dropped

[seafoid]

A match they didn't expect anything from. Spurs are in free fall so the last match should deliver 3.

[seafoid]

Bookie pricing is crazy
Everton are 1 point ahead of Leeds who are 18th.
Everton are being hammered by Man City and are priced at 3/1 while Leeds are priced at 1/4 to be relegated.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soccer/2023/05/16/former-leeds-boss-marcelo-bielsa-named-head-coach-of-uruguay/

[Rufus T Firefly]

Bookie pricing is crazy
Everton are 1 point ahead of Leeds who are 18th.
Everton are being hammered by Man City and are priced at 3/1 while Leeds are priced at 1/4 to be relegated.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soccer/2023/05/16/former-leeds-boss-marcelo-bielsa-named-head-coach-of-uruguay/

I'm no expert on punting, but I can see logic in it. On paper, Everton's last two games are eminently winnable - Wolves away and Bournemouth at home. Before the City game, they gave a very impressive display away to Brighton and the bottom line is that they are now, at this moment, in a position of safety. That puts the onus on Leeds to get something from their games.

My hope is that four points will get us to where we need to be. My fear is that it will take two wins to get us safe, which might be too much of an ask. 

[seafoid]

Bookie pricing is crazy
Everton are 1 point ahead of Leeds who are 18th.
Everton are being hammered by Man City and are priced at 3/1 while Leeds are priced at 1/4 to be relegated.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soccer/2023/05/16/former-leeds-boss-marcelo-bielsa-named-head-coach-of-uruguay/

I'm no expert on punting, but I can see logic in it. On paper, Everton's last two games are eminently winnable - Wolves away and Bournemouth at home. Before the City game, they gave a very impressive display away to Brighton and the bottom line is that they are now, at this moment, in a position of safety. That puts the onus on Leeds to get something from their games.

My hope is that four points will get us to where we need to be. My fear is that it will take two wins to get us safe, which might be too much of an ask.

The betting model is that bottom 3 are odds on. Everton were odds on until that important win. On 5 May Everton were 4/6. 4 days later they were 9/4.

Where there is 1 point between Leeds at 2/5 and Everton at 3/1 the model doesn't make sense.
A 1 point advantage isn't a big enough buffer to justify the assurance given by 3/1.

[seafoid]

Leeds 1 up v West Am. Rodrigo

[RedHand88]

Holy crap Everton might actually be relegated this time.

[seafoid]

It's down to 1 from those 2

[seafoid]

1-1 now

[seafoid]

2-1 West am with 10 mins left

[seafoid]

3-1
Suboptimal