A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[dec]

I see Jon Tonge has produced another survey that is just pure bollocks. Unfortunately these polls and surveys will be taken seriously and will influence  a future SoS on the need for a referendum or not. The guy has a responsibility to actually produce serious surveys and polls that are reflective of the population and not the toilet paper ones he keeps coming up with. The link will show parties disliked by the non nationalist/ unionist voters. This can be proved to be absolute nonsense by actually looking at transfers of these voters in ACTUAL elections.
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/majority-of-middle-ground-say-ni-should-remain-as-an-integral-part-of-the-uk-poll/903311698.html

From the article "Some 57% rarely or never vote, with 38% always or sometimes voting."

So you probably can't use "transfers of these voters in ACTUAL elections."

[JPGJOHNNYG]

40% of everyone doesn't vote and that's on a good day. I think it's fair enough then when we are looking at non unionist non nationalists to look at the alliance and green voting patterns. If you are familiar with Jon and his polls then you know they are w**k, he often has support for UI around 30% and often when questioned admits the pro UI figure is low (so what's the point then). The problem is these figures are then used as gospel by the usual suspects. It's similar to the Nilt surveys that have SF support in the teens and UI support around 25% are used as proof that no border poll is required. Quite frankly polls like ths as much of a joke as they are are being used and manipulated and really should be vetted more. Nolan questioned the integrity of lucid talks Bill white despite their accurate correlation with election results but gives these other charlatans a bye

[clonadmad]

NI in all its glory

https://twitter.com/craigyboy321/status/1632113801439870976?s=46&t=Z3KW3Rw04beopUDsdM2Hwg

[armaghniac]

NI in all its glory

https://twitter.com/craigyboy321/status/1632113801439870976?s=46&t=Z3KW3Rw04beopUDsdM2Hwg

This guy is actually arguing with data, which is a marked improvement on most tweets defending NI.

[Eamonnca1]

Wee Seamy wants to move the goalposts in the belief that most people in the UK will want to keep NI:

Jamie Bryson: The constitutional future of Northern Ireland should be a matter for all of the UK, not just NI
A letter from Jamie Bryson:

By Letters
Published 30th May 2023, 07:02 BST- 3 min read
Updated 30th May 2023, 07:14 BST

It is undemocratic that most of the United Kingdom can't vote on its possible dissolution. Creating an unprecedented right for Scotland or Northern Ireland to secede without any say for the rest of the country was a constitutional wrong-turn

It is undemocratic that most of the United Kingdom can't vote on its possible dissolution. Creating an unprecedented right for Scotland or Northern Ireland to secede without any say for the rest of the country was a constitutional wrong-turn

There has been much talk – largely driven by elements of the media – in relation to a 'border poll' in recent weeks. As far back as the NI Constitutional Act 1973, the Anglo-Irish Agreement and the Framework document, there was a fundamental constitutional error at the heart of UK government policy. This error was then repeated in the Belfast Agreement, and in consequence within section 1 of the NI Act 1998 (which essentially replicates the 1973 Act).

The error was (and is) to confer upon Northern Ireland the principle of self-determination as a bespoke concept, rather than self determination being a question for the entirety of the UK's sovereign territory as a whole. In addressing the Scottish Referendum, the late Court of Appeal judge Sir John Laws said in his book 'The Constitutional Balance' that it was "...profoundly undemocratic that in 2014 only those resident in Scotland, and not the inhabitants of England, Wales or Northern Ireland, were allowed to vote on the prospective dissolution of the United Kingdom".

The UK Supreme Court considered the application of self-determination in recent the Lord Advocate's Scottish Reference, and helpfully set out the principles to be applied. In essence, there is no right to unilaterally secede, save for whereby the territory is under oppressive rule or military occupation. That, plainly, doesn't even come close to applying to Northern Ireland. A state has a right to protect its territorial integrity; there is no principle requiring a state to allow one constituent part the right to secede.

In creating an unprecedented right to secede, outside the parameters of the internationally recognised principle of self-determination, the UK government made a fundamental constitutional wrong-turn, similar to the constitutional error made in surrendering sovereignty to the European Union via the European Communities Act and associated treaties. The government were given an instruction to remedy that error via the Brexit referendum in 2016. It is obvious to point out that in relation to Northern Ireland, the instruction from the UK electorate has been ignored, with the government leaving this part of the Union subjugated under EU law via the Northern Ireland Protocol and its embedding Windsor Framework.

We forever hear nationalists lecturing all and sundry about 'constitutional conversations' and the need to engage in discussing Northern Ireland's future. Of course, what they really mean is discussing a united Ireland. The moment a unionist seeks to inject ideas into the 'conversation' as to how to strengthen the Union – such as this article, or Ian Paisley Junior's Referendum Bill – all of sudden that is heresy and is met with nationalist outrage. That neatly illuminates the deceptive nature of nationalism's honeyed language seeking to present conversations about the future as being totally benign and inclusive. It is only inclusive when it is on their terms.

Unionism ought to unashamedly begin a campaign to correct the constitutional wrong-turn on self-determination, and instead seek to build an argument for the remedying of that error by either making the future of the Union a question for the whole Union; or, alternatively by requiring a border poll to not only obtain a majority in NI and the Republic of Ireland, but also in Great Britain.

Jamie Bryson, NI Director of Policy, Centre for the Union

[Armagh18]

That could very well backfire. Throw a few stats about the cost of this place to the English and they would soon road us

[Eamonnca1]

Polling numbers in Britain for this sort of thing can be hard to track down, mainly because nobody gives a toss about the place and they don't even bother polling for it. But I remember a poll in the Manchester Evening News in the wake of the bomb of 1996 and it showed overwhelming support for Irish unity, it was something like 75% IIRC. The attitude was "it's nothing to do with us, we should leave them to it." One letter writer wrote "if only the Irish would fight amongst themselves and leave us alone."

[Mourne Red]

Changing face of NI from the census tables released today:

0-14 age cohort
Catholic 47.36
Other Christian 23.55
Other/no reg/not stated 23.26

15-39
43.28
30.5
26.2

40-64
41.96
39.89
18.16

65+
35.54
52.82
11.56

15-20 years there'll be a UI in my opinion

[Piskin]

Bryson is dumb as a rock if he wants the whole of the UK to vote.

[Eamonnca1]

Edited for readability:

	0-14 age cohort	.   15-39	.   40-64	.    65+
Taigs	.   47.36	.   43.28	.   41.96	.   35.54
Prods	.   23.55	.   30.5	.   39.89	.   52.82
Other/no reg/not stated	.   23.26	.   26.2	.   18.16	.   11.56

Taigs and prods definitely sloping in opposite directions. Others seem to peak in the 15-39 group. The pace of change is going to accelerate as the prod over 65s die off as the young taigs reach voting age.

[An Astrail]

Bryson is just looking to put more complexity into a border poll. So you'd have to get a majority in the 6, a majority in the 26 and a majority in Britain. At the very least it puts a whole lot more cost into it. But also if you established the principle, you could then also get the rest of the UK voting on Scottish independence to make that harder. And they know that Scottish independence - if it passed - would be a catalyst for the end of the UK.

[Wildweasel74]

I take a English vote on a UI, they want to get rid of us. Where does, Bryson get his backroom qualifications from. He hadn't the brains to get into a real lawyer course.

[marty34]

Does he write them articles and tweets etc. or does someone else help him?

The amount of tweets and re-tweets he puts out is shocking.  It's 7 days a week.

[johnnycool]

I take a English vote on a UI, they want to get rid of us. Where does, Bryson get his backroom qualifications from. He hadn't the brains to get into a real lawyer course.

When you spend most of your life in Bangor, Newtownards, Dundonald, Donaghadee, East Belfast and the likes you're bound to get the misconception that Unionism is still in complete control.

[imtommygunn]

Does he write them articles and tweets etc. or does someone else help him?

The amount of tweets and re-tweets he puts out is shocking.  It's 7 days a week.

I would say that's pretty much his profession. I would suspect this boy has backing financially.