Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[yellowcard]

It's Miracle of Istanbul territory now, everything has to fall into place perfectly for Labour to merely achieve a hung parliament- the best way to achieve a 2nd Referendum. Tactical voting has to be perfect, the margins of errors in the polls have to fall their way, the Brexit party taking Labour votes in targeted seats has to be ineffective, turnout because of weather / the season has to be in their favour, the youth vote has to fall favourably over targeted constituencies. That's a lot of variables that have to go their way

Based on that latest poll where the Tories have regained ground despite their campaign based on a basic slogan and no substance, it is depressing to think that a UK electorate would mandate a far right Tory party with a workable majority back into government. What does it tell you about modern society and the UK electorate though? The Tories fought a campaign on a basic message of 'getting Brexit done' and it looks as though it has worked. Barring a miracle it appears as though the Tories will get back in with a majority to do as they see fit. Given the make up of this next cabinet with carte blanche to do whatever they want, I wouldn't even rule out a no deal Brexit at this point.

Why so down over one poll which seems to be an outlier in the recent trend. And pools have been plain wrong in most British campaigns recently. A Labour majority seems unlikely at present but as regards Remain - the biggest obstacle to that is the fact that more than 50% of people in Britain want to leave the EU. Which is a bit of a problem. Jeremy Corbyn's fault obviously....

It's the fact that it is days out from the election when Labour should have really gained ground by now. Instead they have lost ground if the poll is to be taken at face value.

Labour were never going to get a majority anyway, the best that they could hope for was a hung parliament with a coalition between themselves and SNP. That now appears unlikely though unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the last few days. All based on the preface that the polls are indeed accurate.

It tells me a good half of the Brits are horrible racist f*cks. Its only a few centuries ago the savaged half the world so its in them somewhere!

I think the Brexit referendum itself confirmed that. They appear to be about to vote into power though the most far right government since the Thatcher days and who knows what type of further cuts they will try and implement at the expense of public services. It is a potentially very dangerous government and I suspect that a lot of their promises will go out the window the minute that they are elected.

[easytiger95]

Cheer up lads - Bojo might just have had his Gordon Brown "awful woman" moment. Did you not see this today?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/refuses-to-look-at-picture-of-boy-forced-to-sleep-on-hospital-floor

I think he is cracking under the pressure - might not be the time to exploit it for a hung parliament result, but a narrow Tory win makes Brexit of the kind that Boris wants extremely hard to achieve. He needs a landslide and a parliament full of swivel eyed loons to insure him against the remains of the centrist fringe rebelling - I'd say the odds of that are receding.

If he comes home with a ten or 15 seat majority, he doesn't look like the Heineken candidate that he was puffed up to be - and there should be enough relatively sane MPs in there to block him from no deal at the end of next year.

[seafoid]

There are alot of people who do not read from credible media sources (few left) to see all poitical lies exposed. They take exactly at face value what they read on the dominant Tory backed papers. So it doesn't matter how many twitter campaigns there are highlighting all lies and injustices...

Newspaper sales now are a lot lower than before.
Young people get their news from social media where the Tories are weaker

My point being young people and social media will not get Labour into power. You dont have to buy a paper, the headlines on most of the red tops (with their anti-labour Bias) you see standing in line at the shop are enough to persude the average Joe who does not sit on twitter all day to vote for the Torys.

The Tories have to win. The others don't.
Brexit hasn't won an election since 2016

[seafoid]

It's Miracle of Istanbul territory now, everything has to fall into place perfectly for Labour to merely achieve a hung parliament- the best way to achieve a 2nd Referendum. Tactical voting has to be perfect, the margins of errors in the polls have to fall their way, the Brexit party taking Labour votes in targeted seats has to be ineffective, turnout because of weather / the season has to be in their favour, the youth vote has to fall favourably over targeted constituencies. That's a lot of variables that have to go their way

Based on that latest poll where the Tories have regained ground despite their campaign based on a basic slogan and no substance, it is depressing to think that a UK electorate would mandate a far right Tory party with a workable majority back into government. What does it tell you about modern society and the UK electorate though? The Tories fought a campaign on a basic message of 'getting Brexit done' and it looks as though it has worked. Barring a miracle it appears as though the Tories will get back in with a majority to do as they see fit. Given the make up of this next cabinet with carte blanche to do whatever they want, I wouldn't even rule out a no deal Brexit at this point.

Why so down over one poll which seems to be an outlier in the recent trend. And pools have been plain wrong in most British campaigns recently. A Labour majority seems unlikely at present but as regards Remain - the biggest obstacle to that is the fact that in 2016 more than 50% of people in Britain wanted to leave the EU. Which is a bit of a problem. Jeremy Corbyn's fault obviously....

Who knows what the percentage is now? A more popular Labour leader would significantly close the gap on, if not overhaul, any Conservative lead in the polls. He's simply not a popular option amongst floating voters. BJ DEFINITELY isn't either so it's rock and a hard place territory for those voters.

I think it's different since the Scottish ref after which Labour collapsed in Scotland.
Labout plus the SNP are currently 20 seats behind the Tories .

[Saffrongael]

There are alot of people who do not read from credible media sources (few left) to see all poitical lies exposed. They take exactly at face value what they read on the dominant Tory backed papers. So it doesn't matter how many twitter campaigns there are highlighting all lies and injustices...

Newspaper sales now are a lot lower than before.
Young people get their news from social media where the Tories are weaker

What happened the right wing media conspiracy where everyone is being fed the Daily Mail every day and people can't make their own minds up on issues ? You have done quite the pivot

[yellowcard]

Cheer up lads - Bojo might just have had his Gordon Brown "awful woman" moment. Did you not see this today?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/refuses-to-look-at-picture-of-boy-forced-to-sleep-on-hospital-floor

I think he is cracking under the pressure - might not be the time to exploit it for a hung parliament result, but a narrow Tory win makes Brexit of the kind that Boris wants extremely hard to achieve. He needs a landslide and a parliament full of swivel eyed loons to insure him against the remains of the centrist fringe rebelling - I'd say the odds of that are receding.

If he comes home with a ten or 15 seat majority, he doesn't look like the Heineken candidate that he was puffed up to be - and there should be enough relatively sane MPs in there to block him from no deal at the end of next year.

If people need to see this incident to know what kind of an individual Boris Johnson is, then they have been hiding under a rock for the last few years. There will be a fuss made of it for a few hours and tomorrow it will be yesterdays news. Most of the right wing newspapers will probably not even cover the story. 

I think you are right regarding the size of the majority, I don't think it will be a landslide by any means but it would require the polling to be way out of sync for there to be anything other than a 15+ seat Tory majority.

[balladmaker]

It's Miracle of Istanbul territory now, everything has to fall into place perfectly for Labour to merely achieve a hung parliament- the best way to achieve a 2nd Referendum. Tactical voting has to be perfect, the margins of errors in the polls have to fall their way, the Brexit party taking Labour votes in targeted seats has to be ineffective, turnout because of weather / the season has to be in their favour, the youth vote has to fall favourably over targeted constituencies. That's a lot of variables that have to go their way

Based on that latest poll where the Tories have regained ground despite their campaign based on a basic slogan and no substance, it is depressing to think that a UK electorate would mandate a far right Tory party with a workable majority back into government. What does it tell you about modern society and the UK electorate though? The Tories fought a campaign on a basic message of 'getting Brexit done' and it looks as though it has worked. Barring a miracle it appears as though the Tories will get back in with a majority to do as they see fit. Given the make up of this next cabinet with carte blanche to do whatever they want, I wouldn't even rule out a no deal Brexit at this point.

Why so down over one poll which seems to be an outlier in the recent trend. And pools have been plain wrong in most British campaigns recently. A Labour majority seems unlikely at present but as regards Remain - the biggest obstacle to that is the fact that in 2016 more than 50% of people in Britain wanted to leave the EU. Which is a bit of a problem. Jeremy Corbyn's fault obviously....

Who knows what the percentage is now? A more popular Labour leader would significantly close the gap on, if not overhaul, any Conservative lead in the polls. He's simply not a popular option amongst floating voters. BJ DEFINITELY isn't either so it's rock and a hard place territory for those voters.

I think it's different since the Scottish ref after which Labour collapsed in Scotland.
Labout plus the SNP are currently 20 seats behind the Tories .

Nail on head .... and that's the exact reason why Scottish Independence will ensure a continuous Tory government in the UK for generations to come.

[seafoid]

There are alot of people who do not read from credible media sources (few left) to see all poitical lies exposed. They take exactly at face value what they read on the dominant Tory backed papers. So it doesn't matter how many twitter campaigns there are highlighting all lies and injustices...

Newspaper sales now are a lot lower than before.
Young people get their news from social media where the Tories are weaker

What happened the right wing media conspiracy where everyone is being fed the Daily Mail every day and people can't make their own minds up on issues ? You have done quite the pivot

I read the Torygraph and get the Mail on Sunday and most of the political
stuff in both is bollocks. People are being lied to. There isn't going to be a boom
after Brexit because there is a liquidity trap. Labour aren't any more anti Semitic than the Tories. The Tories purged their moderates but are portrayed as middle of the road. If the Tories did win a majority the UK would suffer.

[Rossfan]

Hopefully it will disintegrate as soon as possible.

[seafoid]

The polling was well off last time. It's not a science.

Johnson needs to win enough seats to avoid Parliamentary scrutiny. That is the point of the election.

[Kidder81]

https://inews.co.uk/news/general-election-2019-angela-rayner-vote-leave-eu-second-referendum-question-time-1336884


Angela Rayner, touted as a future Labour leadership contender, is likely to vote Leave if there is a second Brexit referendum under Jeremy Corbyn, she said on Monday night.

The shadow Education Secretary told a BBC Question Time special she would support a new Brexit deal as long as it "protects the economy and jobs".

Ms Rayner is now the most senior member of the shadow Cabinet to suggest she will support Leave in any rerun of the 2016 vote, after other front-runners for the leadership have committed to back Remain under any circumstances.


She told an audience of young people on Question Time: "People think we're trying to stop Brexit, that's not what we're trying to do."

Asked how she would vote in a second referendum, Ms Rayner said: "If we get a deal that protects the economy and jobs, then I would vote for it."

The 39-year-old is seen as one of the favourites to become Labour leader if Mr Corbyn steps down after an election defeat.

Other contenders including Emily Thornberry, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell are all in favour of staying in the EU - as are a large majority of Labour members.

'Dog-whistle racism'

During Monday night's debate Ms Rayner also clashed angrily with Brexit Party chief Nigel Farage over his role in the first referendum, telling him: "You were trying to dog-whistle racism and you're a disgrace."

He replied: "You've got an anti-Semitism problem, you have lowered British politics." Mr Farage told the audience he planned to spoil his ballot in Thursday's election, and insisted he will never accept a seat in the House of Lords.

[Franko]

The next 2 weeks will probably be vicious. The assaults on Labour will intensify especially if the gap in the polls continues to narrow. There is a huge amount at stake in this election.

Grow up and get a bit of thicker skin. "Assaults" ffs.

The moaning and whining and bitching from all sides is flat out embarrassing.

Labour and Corbyn in particular are the subject of a systematic, baseless smear campaign from the rich and powerful. They're scared of having to pay a fair share of tax. They're scared of the underclasses getting access to affordable education which might give them a leg up in society. They want to maintain the status quo.

This is, frankly, complete and utter bollox. Baseless? Pull the other one.

This evening's events have blown a few holes in this one gallsman.

[Franko]

https://inews.co.uk/news/general-election-2019-angela-rayner-vote-leave-eu-second-referendum-question-time-1336884


Angela Rayner, touted as a future Labour leadership contender, is likely to vote Leave if there is a second Brexit referendum under Jeremy Corbyn, she said on Monday night.

The shadow Education Secretary told a BBC Question Time special she would support a new Brexit deal as long as it "protects the economy and jobs".

Ms Rayner is now the most senior member of the shadow Cabinet to suggest she will support Leave in any rerun of the 2016 vote, after other front-runners for the leadership have committed to back Remain under any circumstances.


She told an audience of young people on Question Time: "People think we're trying to stop Brexit, that's not what we're trying to do."

Asked how she would vote in a second referendum, Ms Rayner said: "If we get a deal that protects the economy and jobs, then I would vote for it."

The 39-year-old is seen as one of the favourites to become Labour leader if Mr Corbyn steps down after an election defeat.

Other contenders including Emily Thornberry, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell are all in favour of staying in the EU - as are a large majority of Labour members.

'Dog-whistle racism'

During Monday night's debate Ms Rayner also clashed angrily with Brexit Party chief Nigel Farage over his role in the first referendum, telling him: "You were trying to dog-whistle racism and you're a disgrace."

He replied: "You've got an anti-Semitism problem, you have lowered British politics." Mr Farage told the audience he planned to spoil his ballot in Thursday's election, and insisted he will never accept a seat in the House of Lords.

I love the way you think you've made a great point here.

Critical thought = Nil.

[seafoid]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/09/jeremy-corbyn-could-win-without-gaining-seat-say-tories-warn/

Jeremy Corbyn 'could win without gaining a seat', as Tories warned he is closer to election success than people think
Gordon Rayner, political editor
9 DECEMBER 2019 • 9:30PM


Jeremy Corbyn is "much closer" to becoming prime minister than voters think because he could get into Downing Street without winning a single extra seat, a Tory party memo has warned.

The memo, dated Dec 7, says the chances of a Corbyn-led coalition have been "seriously underestimated", as gains of just 12 seats by the SNP, Liberal Democrats and other minor parties would be enough to remove Boris Johnson from No 10.

Internal Tory polling says a hung parliament would be the result of "as little as a 1 to 2 per cent movement in the current vote in a handful of seats".

Remain campaigners have calculated that just 40,000 strategically targeted votes spread across marginal constituencies would be enough to swing the result in Mr Corbyn's favour.

The Prime Minister spent Monday touring Leave-supporting Labour constituencies, but his day was dominated by a row over a picture of a boy being treated on the floor of a hospital and a suggestion by Mr Johnson that the BBC licence fee could be abolished.

Mr Johnson will on Tuesday stress that another hung parliament is a "clear and present" danger because of "sophisticated and well-financed attempts under way to prevent a Conservative majority through tactical voting".

On Monday, John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, encouraged Labour voters to consider a Lib Dem vote to "prevent a Tory government".

With just two more days of campaigning to go, the Tory memo – circulated among Conservative Campaign Headquarters staff at the weekend – reflects the fear gripping Tory campaigners over the threat of tactical voting.

A poll of polls on Monday showed the Tories 11 percentage points ahead of Labour and set for a 46-seat majority. However, another poll by ComRes for Remain United, which is campaigning for tactical voting, claims the Tory lead has shrunk to 7 per cent, which would give them just a two-seat majority.

Tory party chiefs are hugely concerned about the danger of complacency setting in among Remain-backing Conservative voters who will look at the polls and think they can "make a consequence-free statement" by voting for another party as a protest.


The memo, sent by Tory pollster Michael Brooks to campaign director Isaac Levido and seen by The Telegraph, says the "major risk" to a Johnson majority is "the belief that the Conservatives are indeed on course to win a comfortable majority". It says "voters' high expectations of a Conservative victory leave open the possibility they may use their vote to make a statement, wrongly believing that doing so will not change the outcome".

It suggests traditional Conservative voters who also voted Remain could vote Lib Dem in St Albans, Cheltenham, Richmond Park and Winchester.

Richmond Park, held by Zac Goldsmith by just 45 votes, is a key Lib Dem target, but Winchester is held by Steve Brine with a majority of 9,999, showing the extent to which the Tories believe Remain-voting seats are vulnerable.

The memo says such voters "fear" a Corbyn government but "do not believe he is a credible threat because they cannot see his path to victory".

Mr Brooks also says the collapse of the Lib Dem vote in the Midlands and North, in seats such as Southport, Derby North, Northampton South, Copeland and Calder Valley, has "overwhelmingly benefited" Labour, making Tory seats vulnerable to Labour and Labour-held Conservative target seats harder to take. Calder Valley, where the incumbent Tory has a 609 majority, could swing to Labour if fewer than a third of 2017's Lib Dem supporters vote tactically.


The memo also identifies a potential loss in Guildford, where Anne Milton, a former Conservative minister, is running as an independent and defending a 17,040 majority. Finally, it names five Leave-backing seats where the Brexit Party could ruin Conservative chances of making gains by splitting the Leave vote: Gedling; Lincoln; High Peak; North West Durham; and Dewsbury.

Mr Brooks warns: "The reality is that Jeremy Corbyn is much closer to becoming prime minister ... than many voters realise.

"Between them, [opposition] parties only need to win 12 more seats and Jeremy Corbyn will be prime minister. The reality is that Labour do not need to gain a single seat, they can simply rely on the SNP to make gains in Scotland or the Liberal Democrats to make gains in southern Conservative seats, and Jeremy Corbyn will be in No 10."


Between them, Labour, the SNP, the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and the Greens won 314 seats in 2017, with 326 needed for an overall majority.

Mr Brooks says talk of tactical voting is starting to have an effect in the North, where Leavers "believe they need to vote for the Brexit Party to secure their preferred outcome with Boris Johnson as prime minister", even though voting Tory would be enough to defeat Labour in certain seats.

On a visit to Staffordshire on Tuesday Mr Johnson will hammer home the document's message by saying: "Jeremy Corbyn and his Lib Dem, nationalist and Green allies need only 12 more seats than last time to make Jeremy Corbyn prime minister and continue the chaos of a hung parliament.

"We'll be stuck in this limbo, this first circle of hell, for the foreseeable future ... on the other hand, the Conservatives need only nine more seats for a majority. We could finally get Brexit done, end the uncertainty and move on.

"That is the choice and it could go either way – 12 seats in one direction and the nightmare will continue indefinitely; nine seats in the other direction and we can break free."

Prime Minister Boris Johnson boards his plane, following a visit to a Grimsby Fish Market
Prime Minister Boris Johnson boards his plane, following a visit to a Grimsby Fish Market CREDIT: PA
Mr McDonnell predicted "surprising results right across the country" and an even greater "shock" than in 2017, when Theresa May lost her majority despite starting with a huge poll lead.

Asked on ITV if he would encourage people to vote tactically in marginal seats, the shadow chancellor said: "I always urge people to vote for Labour, but people will make up their own minds about how their vote will have the maximum effect of preventing a Tory government under Boris Johnson."

A poll of polls compiled by Electoral Calculus puts the Conservatives on 43.5 per cent, nearly 11 per cent ahead of Labour who are on 32.7 per cent.


The Liberal Democrats have been squeezed by Labour and crashed to 12.5 per cent, down from a peak of 19 per cent when the campaign started five weeks ago.

The figures would translate into a 46-seat Conservative majority, with the Lib Dems on course for 13 MPs, only one more than in 2017, meaning they would lose seven of the 20 seats they had at the end of the last parliament following defections.

Nigel Farage's Brexit Party has also been squeezed by Mr Johnson and are down to just 2.9 per cent with no seats predicted.

Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said the Conservative vote had "stabilised and consolidated" but warned: "There are still two well known factors of polling. One is polling error, and the second is tactical voting, both of which could take us back into hung parliament territory." 

[DuffleKing]

Scaremongering propaganda much?

Memo 2: Foreigners are coming for your jobs
Memo 3: If we don't "get Brexit done" Brussels will invade