The Horse racing thread

Started by maddog, December 19, 2006, 03:02:32 PM

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Louth Exile

Quote from: gaa.boy on March 27, 2008, 06:35:41 PM
Canary Islands 3.40 Lingfield (Friday) to win.  ;)

Odds on with some firms at present
St. Josephs GFC - SFC Champions 1996 & 2006, IFC Champions 1983, 1990 & 2016 www.thejoesgfc.com

bcarrier

Apparently this site has picked the winner for the past 7 years.

http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/result.php

bcarrier

Nicked from Allister at neigh ...a good trends analysis.

I think this year will be the hardest ever in which to apply a trends analysis to the big race and I have to say right at he outset that unlike other years, there is no 'absolute' qualifier anyway. Well, not yet at least. Last year Silver Birch did the analysis proud, despite not looking an obvious candidate, but this year I can see one of the 'big trends' going and something I have not considered going in. Still, I hope that what follows here helps some of you shorten your shortlists even further and I definitely hope it will spark some healthy debate.

Best to start with the annual trawl through the trends themselves. I still think that you can be too prescriptive about these, so I'm going to allow leeway here and there (no qualifiers otherwise) and perhaps try and suggest likely trend-breakers.

1. AGE - No runner aged seven or younger has triumphed since 1940, and none older than 12 has even placed since 1969. Stick between the ages of 8 and 12.

2. A WIN OVER AT LEAST 3M - Again, it's been a very long time since the winner has failed to win over at least 3 miles prior to this and this is one trend that I think it would be unwise to ignore. One day, some untried type may come storming home, but I won't be collecting on the winner that day.

3. WEIGHT - Not impossible to win from out of the handicap but that certainly won't be an issue this time. Only 14 since the war have hauled over 11st round and last year's places were all filled with sub-11st runners. Frankly, if there was a year when this was to be broken completely, you'd have to give this year a squeak because the quality most definitely has risen to the top. Phil Smith has attempted to get as many into the handicap as possible, but has compressed the weights so tightly that it's quite possible that something near the head of the weights might run very well. I'm not keen to get involved with any runner carrying more than 11-1 simply because the pace of this event has increased as the fences have become easier and it's a big ask to run with the choke out under a large weight.

4. NOVICES – Wouldn't have considered backing a novice or second-season chaser until Numbersixvalverde won, but if they have won a respected handicap chase from a big field, then they could win this too. If they haven't, then historically they shouldn't win this.

5. CLASS 1 WIN AT LEAST - 13 of the last 14 winners won a Class 1 race at some stage prior to running in the National. The one who didn't was Lord Gyllene, who won the Uttoxeter National Trial which is of course now a Class 1 race.

6. HUNTERS – As most of these have failed to satisfy the previous trend, I don't give them much chance. They are not used to this type of race and haven't got the class to win a top handicap.

7. PREVIOUSLY FINISHED, BUT UNPLACED IN THE NATIONAL - Any decent jumper could make it round in their own time, but only those that can do it at pace stand a chance of winning. I know someone previously pointed out a winner who'd previously run unplaced on the old Neigh, but I can't remember who it was or when and I won't be backing any who fit this profile. Falling or unseating has no such stigma attached.

8. ABILITY TO HANDLE A BIG FIELD – The last 14 winners at least had all previously won a chase with at least 12 runners and that is a good point to make your cut-off. The horse has to be able to go for its gap confidently and keeping up the momentum is pretty vital.

9. PLACED AT LEAST THIS SEASON – The last 20 winners of this all had at least one placed run under their belt the same season. Thirteen of that twenty won, but they're mostly confined to pre-2000 renewals and only three since then have. Only three Irish runners failed to place in a chase of some description that season, namely Bobbyjo, Pappillon and Numbersixvalverde, but all three either won or were placed in a hurdles race. I would ignore any runner that has not at least placed in a NH race over some kind of obstacles other than in hunter chases during the current campaign.

There are some other 'trends' that are contentious, but are certainly worthy of consideration, not least because they have in the past steered me away from some costly bets.

10. BLINKERS – Only Earth Summit has won with headgear in the last 20 years. I really don't know what to make of this statistic, but it scuppers my ideas of the winner this year, as you'll see below. I think this trend more than any other is open to interpretation and it doesn't necessarily preclude a runner from victory, although you'd hate to think your money was riding on a horse that really didn't fancy it.

11. WHITBREAD GOLD CUP AND SANDOWN - Of the last 14 National winners, only two had ever contested a chase at Sandown prior to this, and they finished unplaced and pulled-up. No horse has ever won the National AFTER wining the Whitbread. Again, this seems a bizarre statistic; why have so many trainers simply avoided running at Sandown prior to winning this?

12. MINIMUM OF 4 RUNS THIS SEASON - I'm not convinced about this one, but the last 12 winners had all achieved this, so it's worth looking at if you can't whittle enough with the rest of the trends. This was starting to worry me about Parsons Legacy, but he's now a non-runner anyway. Miinehoma was the last one to have less than four runs that season.

13. RAN WITHIN 42 DAYS OF THE BIG RACE – 19 of the last 20 managed this and only Hedgehunter won from outside this pattern, taking a 49-day holiday before the big one. I suppose the conclusion is that the horse is well and will be race-fit if we have seen it recently. People often don't want to back runners that have competed at Cheltenham but Silver Birch turned this over last year and Hedgehunter was second in the Gold Cup before running second here to Numbersixvalverde. Perhaps this year carries a warning in that so many were strung out at the end of races at the Festival. The ground was slower than normal and perhaps those who ran there will be feeling the ill effects of hard races if they line up in any event at Aintree during National week.

14. FRENCH BREDS – No winners in this race have been bred in France. I tried to make a case for it last year and drew another blank from that particular avenue. Looking at this year's field doesn't inspire me that one will, but Butler's Cabin would be the obvious candidate if it weren't for his weight.


I've done a little bit of digging and would like to say the following about the following:


HEDGEHUNTER (IRE) - Perennial campaigner in this race, but with the years now catching up, despite that good show last time in Ireland, it would be asking an awful lot for him to shoulder this kind of weight.

MR POINTMENT (IRE) – An advert for not running in The Becher after he was lumped with what is realistically a stopping weight. There's no doubting his class for this event and his liking for these fences, but you'd have to think he's likely to get a little tired with his running style and this burden. He may be the one for those of you looking for the weight trend to be broken, but not for me.

OLLIE MAGERN – An admirable and much-loved character who will undoubtedly try to go from the front in this. There'll certainly be no hanging around, but you can't help thinking that this is a decision based on a career on the down slope. Certainly this weight makes him unappealing as a trends selection.

SIMON – I must say I'm bemused by this one's campaign. You'd think after running a blinder last year, connections would have done something to ensure his handicap mark was a little more protected. In fact he's been competitive in more than one race this season and, as he's not over big, asking him to shoulder this weight round this course is too much in my opinion.

BUTLER'S CABIN (FR) – Would have to overcome the fact that he was bred in France, but his win in the Irish Grand National and at Cheltenham last season marks him out as a smart stayer. His handler seems to know his capabilities very well as he managed that win in Ireland just a handful of weeks after virtually collapsing at Cheltenham. Frankly, I'm more worried about the erratic form of his stable than his trends profile, but he will find his allotted weight tough in what looks a very open and hard-to-fathom race.

SLIM PICKINGS (IRE) – Certainly a danger to all based on his run last year, but based on his profile this season he should not win. For a start, he's been asked to carry more weight and that comes off the back of a season where he's done nil over fences. Had run over fences six times by this stage last season and fiddling about over hurdles hasn't set him any easier a task in this renewal. Still hasn't beaten more than six others in a chase.

CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) – Just edged over the cusp of what is acceptable in terms of weight and was a novice last year. What he has done is beat a field of at least twelve in a chase and that has been the one factor that negated the seeming inexperience of second season chasers in this. I'd be interested if he runs, but he wouldn't be a confident selection.

SNOWY MORNING (IRE) – People were quick to crab his chance after what seemed a very disappointing run in Ireland last time, but from a trends point of view, his profile would be largely unattractive as he was a novice last year and has failed to beat a field of twelve.

ALEXANDER TAIPAN (IRE) – I know I included this one when the weights were published, but I have very little inkling as to why. I doubt he'll run, but if he does, I doubt he'll win.

BEWLEYS BERRY (IRE) – Will undoubtedly be a popular choice given a bold show last year, but has plenty of weight considering the fact that he hasn't won a Class 1 chase. The stable had a great Cheltenham Festival but I think from a trends point of view, he's readily dismissed.

MCKELVEY (IRE) – Is bound to be a popular choice following a brave second last year when seemingly injuring himself in the race. The fact that he wears blinkers is somewhat contentious stats negative but more alarmingly, Peter Bowen has only been able to get two runs over hurdles into him and he managed only eighth and unplaced. Considering the last twenty winners of this at least placed in the same season that has to be a huge negative.

POINT BARROW (IRE) – Went off favourite last year and has again made the trends shortlist. The wearing of blinkers would be seen as a negative in the context of statistical trends, but left off he would be a clear qualifier. Has had a largely disappointing season and looked tremendously one-paced on more than one occasion, but I was reminded of last year when comments about lack of speed were thrown Silver Birch's way. It's often best to ignore the visual impression created in three-mile sprints round Haydock and remember this is a unique event. Has a chance, but would be high enough in the weights all the same.

D'ARGENT (IRE) – Might carry some novelty money considering his colour, but is actually a fairly strong trends runner but for the fact that he normally wears blinkers. I'm unsure as to why he's been left in at this late stage because King has stated clearly at least twice that he doesn't consider this one an Aintree type, whatever that is. Personally, I think he has a fine chance if lining up, but I would be much happier if they left the headgear off. Certainly, he's currently at an ante post price that would encourage a smallish wager if interested.

CLOUDY LANE – I almost pressed the button in the autumn when I first started looking at he race and am now hoping I don't regret not doing it. He will surely start as favourite after what seems a perfect preparation for the race. However, he has not managed a Class 1 win and this is something shared by winners of the race for a quite some time now. In addition, coming off the back of three wins doesn't sit well with using previous winners as a guide.

CORNISH SETT – I really wish he could have had a recent run as that's the only thing I don't like about his profile. He wouldn't leap out as an obvious candidate but, when you trawl through his trends profile, everything bar that long layoff points towards a very good chance in this. His finest hour was undoubtedly The Vodafone Chase two seasons ago and he ran well enough in last term's RP Chase. The right age and off a fair mark, he might run well at a big price. I would certainly not put anyone off a small bet now at what are still very big odds, but I am concerned that something may have gone wrong in The Welsh National and he may not line up.

OVER THE CREEK – Normally I'd have had a line straight through this one as his novice status wrecks his chance here. However, he's not the average novice. I'd similarly disregarded Numbersixvalverde a couple of years ago, but on reflection really should have been happy to bet since he'd won a big field handicap chase. Then McKelvey ran a stormer last year too and, in a year when five-year-olds took both The Champion Chase and Champion Hurdle, to leave out a runner who has run well in big fields already might be dangerous. When you consider what Hot Weld and Butler's Cabin have subsequently done after their runs in the NH Chase at Cheltenham, then there's definitely some hope for Over The Creek here. He may go off at a much bigger price than if Comply Or Die wasn't in the race.

COMPLY OR DIE – I'd been concerned that he hadn't dealt with a big handicap field but The Eider put paid to that. The form of the race (or rather the depth of quality) has been queried recently, but there's no doubting this one has developed into the obvious trends horse for the race. His style of running will keep him up and out of trouble but I hope he doesn't get going too far out. My real concern is the application of blinkers. Earth Summit has done it, but it's not common and I'm really hoping that connections take a look at this issue and dispense with them for this race at least. Otherwise, I think he has a great chance and ticks in all the right boxes.

PATSY HALL (IRE) – Might develop into a leading fancy considering his trainer's reputation, but was a novice last year and had no more to give when pulled-up in last year's Irish National. I think a hard race at Cheltenham will have done his chances here no good at all and that in itself looked like a tired finish.

ROYAL COUNTY STAR – Favourite for the Irish equivalent at time of writing, but if Tony Martin decided to have a try in this, he would have to win The Irish National en-route before he would become a trends qualifier. Ran off 124 in The Troytown, but would be off 140 here which doesn't seem that appealing to be honest.

HOMER WELLS – Another engaged in The Irish National, but his chance here would be an obvious one if allowed to line up. By lining up at Fairyhouse he removes the only really strong negative statistic against him, which was time since last run. However a combination of a big effort there, his trainer's fitting of blinkers in his last run and the referral to a need for 'testing ground', would be enough to put me off a bet.

PHILSON RUN – Hasn't really had enough runs this year to fit into a winner's profile, but didn't last year either and still managed a staying-on fourth  at a huge price. That price won't be on offer this time around and the trainer has expressed a preference for softer ground than he's likely to get this time. In his defence, he ran a blinder behind D'Argent at Warwick, but he was outpaced whenever the winner wanted that day and you get the feeling he's going to be too slow to win here too.

OSSMOSES – It's the number of runs that puts me off this one and the fact that he's another confirmed mud lark. I don't actually think he'll line up unless there's a monsoon.

BALLYCASSIDY – 'If only' is the phrase that best applies and anyone reading the trends analysis two years ago would know why. It's unlikely that he'll get in but if he did, I'd definitely have a bet. If he'd stayed up in 2006 who knows what might have happened?

In conclusion, I think the shortlist should contain the following:
Comply Or Die, Over The Creek, D'Argent, Point Barrow and Cornish Sett

If any of these drops out (and I think D'Argent and Cornish Sett are the most likely) then the task looks a little more straightforward. I've noticed a general shortening on Comply Or Die in the last week and we may be looking at he main danger to Cloudy Lane in terms of betting by the day of the race. Strangely for this analysis, there are no clear qualifiers and I am the least confident I have ever been in trends finding the winner as all those on the shortlist have minor questions to answer. But if the blinkers come off Comply Or Die or Point Barrow, I'll be going in again.

If a 'key trend' is to go, I think it will be either Butler's Cabin or Over The Creek who does it, or it might be one of the minor trends with a blinkered runner winning for the first time in ten years.

I'm hoping those of you interested in trends (and those who dislike them) will comment on the thread and help steer us onto the winner.

boojangles

f**k sake,just missed that tip,Canary Island wins at 6/4. >:(
Good stuff tho all the same Gaa.Boy,any more good,uns

winsamsoon

a fully comprehensive summary of the grand national carrier but it may still be down to the old pin and paper techniques. I  myself will do a bit of duching on cloudy lane and die or comply . I really fancied cloudy until his last outing when his jumping wasn't the greatest and ultimately i think this will let him down. But it could all go tits up at the first of even the chair.
I never forget a face but in your case I will make an exception.

TacadoirArdMhacha

Has Cloudy Lane gone too short for any value? Is his price due to people overhyping the McCain connection?

Also i see Kauto Star's running again on Thursday and Master Minded on Friday.
As I dream about movies they won't make of me when I'm dead

harlechman

Backed Mr Pointment on betfair tonight at 26/1 (16s generally with the bookies). If you can excuse his last run he has to have a chance despite carrying 11st 11. He was very impressive winning over the national course back in November. Cloudy is a deserving favourite but I won't be backing him at such short odds.

spiritof91and94


girt_giggler

Silver Hotspur - 4.45 Southwell.

This horse owes me nothing over past few months. tougher task today but shall be backing anyway

gerrykeegan

Orsman 3rd
Silver hotspur no show
2007  2008 & 2009 Fantasy Golf Winner
(A legitimately held title unlike Dinny's)

Homer

This is just plain wrong. :( I wish these idiots would find something better to do with their time. From the Racing Post this afternoon...

http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/news.sd?psection=racingpost.co.uk&page=News&category=Top%20Stories&story_uid=964839

QuoteThe Grand National at Aintree, due to be run this Saturday April 5th, is in danger after some shrewd legal work by animal rights protesters.

The group known as Animal Aid had lawyers investigate the small print in the Rules and Regulations of the British Horseracing Authority. They found that the Grand National fences are against the regulations set out in Section 43, Paragraphs 16(a), 16(b) and 16(c), which lists what materials can be used to make up a fence. Strangely, spruce is not one of them and every fence on the Grand National track is at least some part spruce.

Aintree's clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch reported this morning: "Unfortunately it is true that the Grand National fences go against the stipulations set out in the BHA regulations and they have done so for the last 42 years. We have been in touch with the BHA about changing the regulations in time for the race but there is a pending legal challenge against it. Whatever happens, the Grand National will be run, even if it means we have to bypass all the fences but we hope it won't come to that."

The prospect of a Grand National without jumps will dismay many purists of the sport but the final outcome will depend on the results of a legal council meeting on Wednesday morning. Also at risk are the John Smith's Fox Hunters' Chase on Thursday and the John Smith's Topham Chase on Friday.

A four and a half mile flat race?  :'(

A sad day for National Hunt fans.

Mickey Linden

Happy April Fools Day Homer ;D


Goats Do Shave

When are the horses confirmed for the National?

Usually run a sweep stake in work, so waiting on the BBC site's kit to be published...

rootthemout

declarations for national confirmed today goats