26 County General Election 2020

Started by Snapchap, January 09, 2020, 06:52:51 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

What will be makeup of the next government?

FF/SD/Lab/Green
FG/SD/Lab/Green
FG/FF
FF/Green
FG/Independents
FG/Independents
FG/Green
FF/SF
FF/Green/Independents
FF Minority
FG Minority
FG/SF
FF/Lab/Green
FF/Lab
FF/Lab/Green/Independents

Rossfan

Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Itchy

Quote from: Hound on January 14, 2020, 03:15:22 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on January 13, 2020, 03:33:22 PM

My alternative to MNC's - I don't really know at the moment. All I'm saying is we'd need to get one quickly because the EU will impose Tax harmonisation and probably soon. I think there are areas we could and should be exploring so we can develop indigenous industries that can be sustainable into the future. I think there's scope in renewable energies like wind, wave and biomass for example but I'm no expert. My point is basically - we need to wean ourselves off the junkie like dependence on MNC's attracted by immorally low CT regimes.

12.5% of profits is absolutely not a fair rate of tax - let's be honest about it. Especially when you factor in the huge tax breaks inherent in our system and look at effective tax rates. We have this regime to attract these companies. As I've said before it's unsustainable and from a moral standpoint in my view it's not defensible in a country with so many homeless, a creaking two tier health system and an ever widening wealth gap. "Entrepreneurs" come in many shapes and sizes and their marginal tax rate on profits they draw from their companies is essentially the same as a PAYE worker once PRSI & USC (remember when FG were going to abolish this.....long time ago) is factored in. Every extra € I make in my job the government take more than half of it off me also. These "entrepreneurs" as you call them employ people so they can make more money. That's the bottom line. They are not Robin Hood.

Sorry for splitting in two.

Agree completely re encouraging indigenous business and sustainable renewable energy. But that can be done alongside continuing to attract MNCs. Enterprise Ireland has some great supports for Irish businesses.

MNCs pay 12.5% tax on their Irish profits. "Huge Irish tax breaks" are a complete myth.

Imagine a newspaper report saying Hound earns 100k and pays 50k tax in Ireland. Hound's brother lives in the Cayman Islands earns 900k and pays no tax. So the Hound brothers have an effective tax rate of 5% and it's a disgrace!

That's exactly what the media do with the Googles and Facebooks. They combine their Irish resident company which pays 12.5% tax and their Bermudan or Cayman resident companies that pay no tax, and say overall it's a 2% effective tax rate. Yes, they use havens to the biggest extent possible, and absolutely fair enough to have a go at that, but to call it an Irish tax break is just the height of nonsense.

These companies employ thousands, pay millions in tax and do lots of business with small Irish businesses. They are fantastic for Ireland. IDA has said in their recent press release that one third of MNCs in Ireland have been here for over 20 years.

Here's IDA's latest release on new Ireland wins:

Adesto Technologies Corporation, semiconductors/IOT, have announced plans to partner with the European Space Agency which will see the creation of senior engineering roles in its Cork and Dublin offices.

ARTeSYN, biopharma, plans to expand its operations in Waterford by adding 50 new roles in Production, Engineering, Customer Service and Research & Development

EJ, access solutions, new production facility in Birr, Co. Offaly

Elavon, card payment solutions, has invested in its office, making Arklow, Co. Wicklow a mini Fintech hub in Ireland

Eurofins, life sciences, new Software Engineering Centre in Leopardstown, creation of 150 high-tech jobs

Fort Wayne Metals, medical devices manufacturer, new €10m manufacturing facility in Castlebar leading to the creation of 80 new jobs, doubling their current workforce

FundRock, investment fund manager, new office in Limerick employing 30 people with plans to expand this in the future

Huawei, ICT, new Dublin office which will create 100 jobs

Janssen Sciences, part of J&J, expansion of its manufacturing building in Co. Cork which will create 200 new jobs

Liberty Insurance, plans to create over 120 new roles, expanding its operations in Co. Cavan

Otterbox Products, a smartphone cases, Cork new office, up to 100 employees

Overstock, an online retail shopping site, new European base in the IDA business park in Sligo, plans to recruit 20 employees this year

Panasonic Avionics, in-flight entertainment, new repair shop in Dundalk

Patreon, payment platform, new European Headquarters in Dublin, will create 30 new jobs

PublicRelay, analytics firm, to open an office in Cavan which is expected to create 20 new jobs

Travelport, technology company in travel industry, 22 new jobs in their Dublin operations

WuXi Vaccines, biologics technology, plans to build a $240m vaccine production facility in Dundalk which will see the creation of 200 new jobs


I would wager that half of those wouldve happened without any IDA intervention. The company work for hired 100 people last year, nothing to do with the IDA, all to do with increased sales.

mouview

Quote from: seafoid on January 14, 2020, 01:11:48 PM
Quote from: Shamrock Shore on January 14, 2020, 12:27:58 PM
Prediction

Ok.

FG 55
FF 48
Lab 5
SF 20
Green 7
Looney Left 4
Inds 19

FG 45
FF 43
Lab 12
SF 15
Green 17
Lefties 4
Indies  rest

The country is trína chéile

Really, the safest bet would be a FG/FF coalition if both could hold their noses and do it. Any other combination is leaving us at the mercy of a cabal of lefties/republicans/greens and other head-the-balls, none of whom would provide us with the political stability we need for the turbulent few years ahead. FG still the safest bet anyway, no matter what you might think.

seafoid

Quote from: Hound on January 14, 2020, 03:15:22 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on January 13, 2020, 03:33:22 PM

My alternative to MNC's - I don't really know at the moment. All I'm saying is we'd need to get one quickly because the EU will impose Tax harmonisation and probably soon. I think there are areas we could and should be exploring so we can develop indigenous industries that can be sustainable into the future. I think there's scope in renewable energies like wind, wave and biomass for example but I'm no expert. My point is basically - we need to wean ourselves off the junkie like dependence on MNC's attracted by immorally low CT regimes.

12.5% of profits is absolutely not a fair rate of tax - let's be honest about it. Especially when you factor in the huge tax breaks inherent in our system and look at effective tax rates. We have this regime to attract these companies. As I've said before it's unsustainable and from a moral standpoint in my view it's not defensible in a country with so many homeless, a creaking two tier health system and an ever widening wealth gap. "Entrepreneurs" come in many shapes and sizes and their marginal tax rate on profits they draw from their companies is essentially the same as a PAYE worker once PRSI & USC (remember when FG were going to abolish this.....long time ago) is factored in. Every extra € I make in my job the government take more than half of it off me also. These "entrepreneurs" as you call them employ people so they can make more money. That's the bottom line. They are not Robin Hood.

Sorry for splitting in two.

Agree completely re encouraging indigenous business and sustainable renewable energy. But that can be done alongside continuing to attract MNCs. Enterprise Ireland has some great supports for Irish businesses.

MNCs pay 12.5% tax on their Irish profits. "Huge Irish tax breaks" are a complete myth.

Imagine a newspaper report saying Hound earns 100k and pays 50k tax in Ireland. Hound's brother lives in the Cayman Islands earns 900k and pays no tax. So the Hound brothers have an effective tax rate of 5% and it's a disgrace!

That's exactly what the media do with the Googles and Facebooks. They combine their Irish resident company which pays 12.5% tax and their Bermudan or Cayman resident companies that pay no tax, and say overall it's a 2% effective tax rate. Yes, they use havens to the biggest extent possible, and absolutely fair enough to have a go at that, but to call it an Irish tax break is just the height of nonsense.

These companies employ thousands, pay millions in tax and do lots of business with small Irish businesses. They are fantastic for Ireland. IDA has said in their recent press release that one third of MNCs in Ireland have been here for over 20 years.

Here's IDA's latest release on new Ireland wins:

Adesto Technologies Corporation, semiconductors/IOT, have announced plans to partner with the European Space Agency which will see the creation of senior engineering roles in its Cork and Dublin offices.

ARTeSYN, biopharma, plans to expand its operations in Waterford by adding 50 new roles in Production, Engineering, Customer Service and Research & Development

EJ, access solutions, new production facility in Birr, Co. Offaly

Elavon, card payment solutions, has invested in its office, making Arklow, Co. Wicklow a mini Fintech hub in Ireland

Eurofins, life sciences, new Software Engineering Centre in Leopardstown, creation of 150 high-tech jobs

Fort Wayne Metals, medical devices manufacturer, new €10m manufacturing facility in Castlebar leading to the creation of 80 new jobs, doubling their current workforce

FundRock, investment fund manager, new office in Limerick employing 30 people with plans to expand this in the future

Huawei, ICT, new Dublin office which will create 100 jobs

Janssen Sciences, part of J&J, expansion of its manufacturing building in Co. Cork which will create 200 new jobs

Liberty Insurance, plans to create over 120 new roles, expanding its operations in Co. Cavan

Otterbox Products, a smartphone cases, Cork new office, up to 100 employees

Overstock, an online retail shopping site, new European base in the IDA business park in Sligo, plans to recruit 20 employees this year

Panasonic Avionics, in-flight entertainment, new repair shop in Dundalk

Patreon, payment platform, new European Headquarters in Dublin, will create 30 new jobs

PublicRelay, analytics firm, to open an office in Cavan which is expected to create 20 new jobs

Travelport, technology company in travel industry, 22 new jobs in their Dublin operations

WuXi Vaccines, biologics technology, plans to build a $240m vaccine production facility in Dundalk which will see the creation of 200 new jobs


The sun doesn't shine out of their arses, Hound. They bring benefits but at the expense of the rest of the economy.
The Irish economy is fine when things are calm and then falls into crisis. An economy more focused on local needs might be more resilient. 

"The high relative openness of the Irish economy does, however, leave it more exposed to changes and shocks in global demand"

Between 08 and 2011 the economy contracted by 12%
Unemployment went to 15% in 2011
Net emigration restarted.

Next time will be even worse. 

"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

seafoid

Quote from: mouview on January 14, 2020, 03:56:22 PM
Quote from: seafoid on January 14, 2020, 01:11:48 PM
Quote from: Shamrock Shore on January 14, 2020, 12:27:58 PM
Prediction

Ok.

FG 55
FF 48
Lab 5
SF 20
Green 7
Looney Left 4
Inds 19

FG 45
FF 43
Lab 12
SF 15
Green 17
Lefties 4
Indies  rest

The country is trína chéile

Really, the safest bet would be a FG/FF coalition if both could hold their noses and do it. Any other combination is leaving us at the mercy of a cabal of lefties/republicans/greens and other head-the-balls, none of whom would provide us with the political stability we need for the turbulent few years ahead. FG still the safest bet anyway, no matter what you might think.

Safety is relative, Mo.
They are all groupthinkers. 
They have no idea what is coming down the tracks.

Even the idea that it is safe to have an election because Brexit is sorted out is debatable
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: seafoid on January 14, 2020, 04:15:26 PM
The sun doesn't shine out of their arses, Hound. They bring benefits but at the expense of the rest of the economy.
The Irish economy is fine when things are calm and then falls into crisis. An economy more focused on local needs might be more resilient. 

"The high relative openness of the Irish economy does, however, leave it more exposed to changes and shocks in global demand"

Between 08 and 2011 the economy contracted by 12%
Unemployment went to 15% in 2011
Net emigration restarted.

Next time will be even worse.

I don't follow the logic.

>> If you aren't exporting then you are f**ked long term. Would you have the ROI become an economic basket case like NI?
>> Having a diverse multinational industry base is more resilient than packing your eggs into relatively few local baskets. Explain how an economy "more focused on local needs might be more resilient"* - unless you mean 'cos its shite in the "good times" its just a bit more shite in the bad times?
>> The economy here contracted so much due the finance industry. That was a problem made of our own greed and cute hoors being too cute for their own good.

*and explain what that even means.


I agree entirely that a multinational selling something to someone in Ireland should pay no less tax than a local shop/factory for selling that same thing. Beyond that, I've no issue with the multinationals as long as they aren't in the business of exploitation elsewhere.
i usse an speelchekor

seafoid

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on January 14, 2020, 04:35:46 PM
Quote from: seafoid on January 14, 2020, 04:15:26 PM
The sun doesn't shine out of their arses, Hound. They bring benefits but at the expense of the rest of the economy.
The Irish economy is fine when things are calm and then falls into crisis. An economy more focused on local needs might be more resilient. 

"The high relative openness of the Irish economy does, however, leave it more exposed to changes and shocks in global demand"

Between 08 and 2011 the economy contracted by 12%
Unemployment went to 15% in 2011
Net emigration restarted.

Next time will be even worse.

I don't follow the logic.

>> If you aren't exporting then you are f**ked long term. Would you have the ROI become an economic basket case like NI?
>> Having a diverse multinational industry base is more resilient than packing your eggs into relatively few local baskets. Explain how an economy "more focused on local needs might be more resilient"* - unless you mean 'cos its shite in the "good times" its just a bit more shite in the bad times?
>> The economy here contracted so much due the finance industry. That was a problem made of our own greed and cute hoors being too cute for their own good.

*and explain what that even means.


I agree entirely that a multinational selling something to someone in Ireland should pay no less tax than a local shop/factory for selling that same thing. Beyond that, I've no issue with the multinationals as long as they aren't in the business of exploitation elsewhere.

The whole economic model is the problem. There is too much downside risk and not enough investment in strengthening the local economy.
Very few Irish companies develop scale. They tend to be sold off. Why ?
Why do we keep on coming back to property bubbles ?
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Rossfan

Love it hate the Multis at least they kept an economy going from 2008 to 2014 during the collapse of  the FF/PD neoliberal unreal economy of lending each other money to buy houses from each other to rent to the Polush lads building the houses.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

five points

Quote from: seafoid on January 14, 2020, 05:14:56 PM
The whole economic model is the problem. There is too much downside risk and not enough investment in strengthening the local economy.
Very few Irish companies develop scale. They tend to be sold off. Why ?
Why do we keep on coming back to property bubbles ?

Too small a country, not enough wealth in it, and too much tax on new wealth creation, especially when you consider the risk of losing everything if it goes haywire.

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: seafoid on January 14, 2020, 05:14:56 PM
The whole economic model is the problem. There is too much downside risk and not enough investment in strengthening the local economy.

Your dodging my main question.

Again - 'Explain how an economy "more focused on local needs might be more resilient"*

*and explain what that even means.'


Quote from: seafoid on January 14, 2020, 05:14:56 PM
Very few Irish companies develop scale. They tend to be sold off. Why ?

Many reasons:
- no desire for the stress of expanding
- happy with their lot
- unsure of challenge of expanding
- don't have sufficient cash to expand in the means necessary and maintain security


Quote from: seafoid on January 14, 2020, 05:14:56 PM
Why do we keep on coming back to property bubbles ?

'cos people are stupid and banks are greedy. Once again, Dublin is prime for a collapse in the market. However this time, the prices across the country are likely to be much more resilient as they haven't bounced back to the crazy heights.
i usse an speelchekor

LooseCannon

Quote from: Rossfan on January 14, 2020, 03:34:47 PM
Elphin loses out again >:(

It'd be an ideal location for Apple, with the Orchard there and all....!






Provided the gobshites in Wicklow stay quiet.

armaghniac

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on January 14, 2020, 05:33:20 PM
'cos people are stupid and banks are greedy. Once again, Dublin is prime for a collapse in the market. However this time, the prices across the country are likely to be much more resilient as they haven't bounced back to the crazy heights.

Dublin prices haven't bounced back either, being 30% below 2007. That is 30% less that they are likely to fall.
Banks maybe greedy, but the Central Bank does not allow them throw money at you nowadays.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

tyrone08

Quote from: armaghniac on January 14, 2020, 06:39:27 PM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on January 14, 2020, 05:33:20 PM
'cos people are stupid and banks are greedy. Once again, Dublin is prime for a collapse in the market. However this time, the prices across the country are likely to be much more resilient as they haven't bounced back to the crazy heights.

Dublin prices haven't bounced back either, being 30% below 2007. That is 30% less that they are likely to fall.
Banks maybe greedy, but the Central Bank does not allow them throw money at you nowadays.

See a report on housing the other day which showed rental prices in Dublin were roughly 200 euro higher than in 2008. I assume its true but that is crazy.

seafoid

Quote from: armaghniac on January 14, 2020, 06:39:27 PM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on January 14, 2020, 05:33:20 PM
'cos people are stupid and banks are greedy. Once again, Dublin is prime for a collapse in the market. However this time, the prices across the country are likely to be much more resilient as they haven't bounced back to the crazy heights.

Dublin prices haven't bounced back either, being 30% below 2007. That is 30% less that they are likely to fall.
Banks maybe greedy, but the Central Bank does not allow them throw money at you nowadays.

It's another property bubble driven by ultra low interest rates

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexoctober2019/

« Dublin residential property prices are 21.3% lower than their February 2007 peak, »

Rates will go up when banks crash again.
Banks are strictly regulated but shadow banks are not.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Rossfan

Quote from: LooseCannon on January 14, 2020, 05:45:42 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on January 14, 2020, 03:34:47 PM
Elphin loses out again >:(

It'd be an ideal location for Apple, with the Orchard there and all....!






Provided the gobshites in Wicklow stay quiet.

😆😆😆

Th'oul windmill would never be able to power it!
Anyway it's full speed ahead on the media with hours of nonstop waffle.
Godhelpus only 25 more days of it.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM