A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

Started by winghalfback, May 27, 2015, 03:16:23 PM

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NetNitrate

The paradox of a United Ireland is the majority in the North will only vote to join a thriving state but for  Sinn Fein to gain power in the South they have to constantly trump what a piece of shit the Free State is. It's not - it's far superior to the North, far superior to the Uk, and a shame it's constantly put down.

Eamonnca1

Quote from: GJL on February 18, 2020, 12:05:01 AM
Taken from a sample of 2000 people. FFS lads.

So? 1000 would be a decent size for a poll. A poll is not a census, it's a sample. That's what polling is.

GJL

Quote from: Eamonnca1 on February 18, 2020, 04:35:11 AM
Quote from: GJL on February 18, 2020, 12:05:01 AM
Taken from a sample of 2000 people. FFS lads.

So? 1000 would be a decent size for a poll. A poll is not a census, it's a sample. That's what polling is.

Indeed. And we have seen in the UK the value of polls and how accurate they can be. A waste of time when dealing with such small numbers.

JPGJOHNNYG

The sample size isnt the problem its the fact that the people are interviewed.!!!!. I dont know any election in the world were its not an anonymous poll so this one is highly flawed and historically similar polls have given similarly low results for unity
Lord ashcroft and lucid talk are anonymous and have irish unity in the lead
Lucid talk isnt without its flaws as it seemed to be swamped by Alliance members in the run up to the last election resulting in some ridiculous projections for them but they still did exceptionally well on election day.
The middle ground ie Alliance and Green figures seem exceptionally low for unity considering other polling had them way ahead for unity post brexit!!!
All in all I wouldnt pay too much attention to it. Just laugh at the bel tel and its usual idiots like Ellis O hanlon using it for her own means and just ignoring any other recent polling. Expect Ruth Dudley to have something to say as well. The bel tel  really is a rag

JPGJOHNNYG

Ps not too sure how 'neutral' jon tonge is on the subject.

naka

the vote for a united Ireland is all about educating the undecided.
in advance of any vote there has to be a concerted plan to show the benefits of unity
Northern Ireland is a basket case of an economy totally reliant upon the subsidy of uk Parliament.
to persuade the unionists with a small u and the middle ground a pr campaign has to be set  in train highlighting the fact that ireland is  a progressive EU nation with a higher standard of gdp per capita.
to rush blindly into a poll is effectively what the unionists want because they know unlike with Scotland , the uk parliament wont be so partisan.
its a five/ten year plan which has to be rolled out on sound economic facts not on nationalist jingoism.
then we will see where we are with unity.

five points

Quote from: naka on February 18, 2020, 10:33:22 AM
a pr campaign has to be set  in train highlighting the fact that ireland is a progressive EU nation

Except it's not. We're a tiny dysfunctional country that suffers recessions or depressions every 15 years or so, tided over in between by the multinationals...

Quote from: naka on February 18, 2020, 10:33:22 AM
...with a higher standard of gdp per capita.

as evidenced by the fact our GDP doesn't even measure our national income. "Leprechaun economics"

armaghniac

GDP is not a proper measure, but the number at work in 26 counties increased by over 3% last year and that is a real measure.

As for the poll, a person can reasonably be a nationalist while not voting for an immediate united Ireland because the groundwork has not been done. Being a nationalist means that you expect the work to be done. SF have not even been able to produce a credible financial model for the 26 counties in their manifesto, never mind a UI. Their money tree economics is a serious obstacle to Irish unity.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

tbrick18

Quote from: armaghniac on February 18, 2020, 01:16:43 PM
GDP is not a proper measure, but the number at work in 26 counties increased by over 3% last year and that is a real measure.

As for the poll, a person can reasonably be a nationalist while not voting for an immediate united Ireland because the groundwork has not been done. Being a nationalist means that you expect the work to be done. SF have not even been able to produce a credible financial model for the 26 counties in their manifesto, never mind a UI. Their money tree economics is a serious obstacle to Irish unity.

Have SF discussed finance with regards to a UI?
I saw an interview with Mary-Lou and she seemed to be saying that preparations and discussions were needed so that the picture of what a UI could look like can be created. Is this not laying the groundwork?
Personally, I think we need to see what Brexit is going to bring to NI. If it turns out to be as bad as many predict, I could see many small "u" unionists voting for a UI to get back into Europe providing their British identity is retained. Likewise, for many Nationalists who might not vote for it now, I think a painful Brexit for us would swing that vote.
There is a sizeable proportion of the electorate here who would vote in economic terms and not on political terms with respect to a border poll.

five points

A politician making promises in a TV interview is not laying the groundwork for anything.

If Brexit is painful for the north, it will be equally so for the republic.

naka

Quote from: five points on February 18, 2020, 10:37:38 AM
Quote from: naka on February 18, 2020, 10:33:22 AM
a pr campaign has to be set  in train highlighting the fact that ireland is a progressive EU nation

Except it's not. We're a tiny dysfunctional country that suffers recessions or depressions every 15 years or so, tided over in between by the multinationals...

Quote from: naka on February 18, 2020, 10:33:22 AM
...with a higher standard of gdp per capita.
ireland might in your words be a tiny dysfunctional country but jeez compared  to the North it is an economic utopia

as i said this is a 5/10 year plan

as evidenced by the fact our GDP doesn't even measure our national income. "Leprechaun economics"

five points

We in the south have spent most of the last 10 years in recession. It's only a matter of time before that returns, and our tax receipts are in addition heavily dependent on a handful of multinationals, who could move on at any time. On top of that our debt is off the scale both in real terms and as a % of GNI.  We are in no shape to finance a unification project. Forget about a 5/10 year plan, we'd be doing well to finance it over 50 years.

Rossfan

When are them Nordies going to get off their lazy arses and start to earn a collective living for themselves?
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Eamonnca1

Quote from: GJL on February 18, 2020, 09:04:44 AM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on February 18, 2020, 04:35:11 AM
Quote from: GJL on February 18, 2020, 12:05:01 AM
Taken from a sample of 2000 people. FFS lads.

So? 1000 would be a decent size for a poll. A poll is not a census, it's a sample. That's what polling is.

Indeed. And we have seen in the UK the value of polls and how accurate they can be. A waste of time when dealing with such small numbers.

If you're referring to the recent UK general election, the outcome was entirely consistent with the polls. I'm not sure where you're coming from.

Eamonnca1

Quote from: five points on February 18, 2020, 03:40:07 PM
We in the south have spent most of the last 10 years in recession. It's only a matter of time before that returns, and our tax receipts are in addition heavily dependent on a handful of multinationals, who could move on at any time. On top of that our debt is off the scale both in real terms and as a % of GNI.  We are in no shape to finance a unification project. Forget about a 5/10 year plan, we'd be doing well to finance it over 50 years.

First I've heard of it. Where did you hear this?