China Coronavirus

Started by lurganblue, January 23, 2020, 09:52:32 AM

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Taylor

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on January 14, 2022, 12:32:00 PM
Quote from: seafoid on January 13, 2022, 07:04:45 AM
Omnicron was unknown a month ago but now with ICU numbers falling in many countries it's much less of a worry.
The problem is that Covid is well established in poorer countries where public health is weak and will be back again with more iterations.

Nah - very unlikely.

At this point, it'd essentially be a new virus if it were to cause a significant disruption to the current trajectory.

Omicron will over the next month or two give almost everyone immunity - including the anti-vax hold outs.
That immunity will be close enough to be effective* against any other SARS-CoV-2 variant.
Furthermore, since it seems to come back on people fairly quickly - like a cold - the constant reserve of it in the community will by and by large keep immune systems fresh with it.

Get the NHS out of the woods (by flattening peak), then get rid of all local restrictions. At that point, they'll do more harm than good - we want to keep Omicron circulating in some shape/form when everyone has a good immune response to it. Probably prudent to keep an eye on international gateways, but not likely to be an issue.


*effective in this case = bringing down rates of serious illness/fatalities to those of similar infections.

Have followed your comments from the start Radio and to be fair you have been there or thereabouts on most things you have said.

Good enough for me.

So the home straight is in sight?

J70

Quote from: lenny on January 14, 2022, 05:18:48 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on January 14, 2022, 03:42:18 PM
Quote from: lenny on January 14, 2022, 02:37:44 PM
I see Alphonso Davies from Bayern has had to take time off from playing as he's got myocarditis after getting Covid in December. This was probably only picked up because he's a footballer and getting regular checks. The anti vaccine brigade keep pushing this as a major side effect of the vaccine but they don't like getting it pointed out that it's at least 4 times more likely to happen if you get Covid.
Only playing devils advocate here, but has he not got the vaccine? The anti vaxxers will blame it on that.

You'd be a very stupid advocate then. He got his vaccine pre season in July. He's played all season without a problem with all the regular checks and monitoring they do at top level professional clubs. He got Covid in December and when he tried to return to playing and training he was getting pains in his chest.

Aubamayang out too with heart issues after Covid.

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: lenny on January 14, 2022, 02:27:16 PM
Sounds brilliant and I hope it works out like that. I was reading something the other day though which makes me think it is unlikely. The problem is that Covid doesn't work in the same way as the flu. Each iteration of the flu evolves from the last one. With Covid it's not working out like that. Variants are emerging around the world but not necessarily as an iteration of the previous one eg omicron didn't evolve from delta. What that means is that the next variant to come along could be a lot more lethal than omicron and just as infectious or it could be even less dangerous. At this stage nobody knows and it will basically come down to luck.

There are four other (7 known in total, leaving aside SARS1 and MERS for now) coronavirus that transmit in humans, these are:

HCoV-NL63   
HCoV-229E
HCoV-OC43
HKU1

SARS-CoV-2 will go the same way as the above. Its what they do. The above 4 will all have variants being produced all the time, but luckily our immune system is largely able to recognise, adapt to any variations and deal with them.


Its probably worth bearing in mind that evolutionary pressure is on the virus to move up out of our lungs and reside more in our throat/nose - Omicron case in point - several reasons. Two of which are:
(i) a cough or sneeze will see more particles spread better if its only travelling from the back of our throat rather than from deep in the lungs - which would tend to line our airways with most of the viral particles.
(ii) someone who is not badly affected is in a better position to socialise and encounter other people to pass the thing onto.
i usse an speelchekor

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: Taylor on January 14, 2022, 07:54:05 PM
So the home straight is in sight?

Hopefully.

(Very) far from infallible of course, so you could all be laughing at my stupidity in a few weeks.

Well... prob not laughing as it'll mean we'll have more of the f**king restrictions to deal with.
i usse an speelchekor

imtommygunn

It tallies with what a friend of mine said to me the other day and tbh he knows his stuff. (Not from reading it on Facebook but his job). I trust him and hope you are both right!!

theskull1

The EMA official raised concerns that a strategy of giving boosters every four months hypothetically poses the risk of overloading people's immune systems and leading to fatigue in the population.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/eu-drug-regulator-says-more-data-needed-impact-omicron-vaccines-2022-01-11/
It's a lot easier to sing karaoke than to sing opera

seafoid

https://www.ft.com/content/42c5ff3d-e676-4076-9b9f-7243a00cba5e

Omicron's 50 genetic changes include more than 30 on the spike protein, the exposed part of the virus that binds with human cells. Scientists expect these changes to make it more transmissible than the dominant Delta variant and more likely to evade the immune protection provided by vaccines or previous infection.

Omicron required a booster because it is so different to Delta. The vaccines only gave around 70% coverage.
The next variant may not be so different.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

lenny

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been diagnosed with heart lesions after recovering from Covid-19 at the Africa Cup of Nations. The Arsenal forward was ruled out of Gabon's 1-1 draw against Ghana on Friday.

The "cardiac lesions" were found in a check by Confederation of African Football (CAF) medical officials, the Gabonese FA said in a statement. Officials examined Aubameyang after he returned following a positive Covid test. Two of his Gabon teammates, forward Axel MeyƩ and midfielder Mario Lemina, were both also found to have the same issue.

Joe public isn't going through these extensive tests when they "get over" covid. Covid is going to leave a long lasting legacy and devastating impact on our health services and peoples health.

Last Man

Plenty of work for the scientists! This is not a 1 size fits all. The risk factors have to be distilled further.

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: seafoid on January 15, 2022, 06:34:57 AM
Omicron required a booster because it is so different to Delta. The vaccines only gave around 70% coverage.
The next variant may not be so different.

Omicron up near our throats will always out-compete a variant that goes deeper into our lungs (and would hence be more dangerous)

i usse an speelchekor

Jim Bob

Quote from: lenny on January 15, 2022, 05:13:03 PM
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been diagnosed with heart lesions after recovering from Covid-19 at the Africa Cup of Nations. The Arsenal forward was ruled out of Gabon's 1-1 draw against Ghana on Friday.

The "cardiac lesions" were found in a check by Confederation of African Football (CAF) medical officials, the Gabonese FA said in a statement. Officials examined Aubameyang after he returned following a positive Covid test. Two of his Gabon teammates, forward Axel MeyƩ and midfielder Mario Lemina, were both also found to have the same issue.

Joe public isn't going through these extensive tests when they "get over" covid. Covid is going to leave a long lasting legacy and devastating impact on our health services and peoples health.

Maybe not but I'm sure many other professional athletes , who had Covid , had them as well and nothing detected. Typical Scaremongering nonsense !!

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on January 05, 2022, 06:40:12 PM
Quote from: Itchy on January 05, 2022, 05:24:39 PM
Absenteeism at work at 30% since we started back. I heard on news 8k teachers out with covid out of 27k nationwide in Republic which is also around 30%. Expected to get worse so not sure how the country stays open in these circumstances.

Probably by reducing isolation period further, watch this space

Reducing to 5 then

armaghniac

Quote from: Jim Bob on January 15, 2022, 07:19:12 PM
Maybe not but I'm sure many other professional athletes , who had Covid , had them as well and nothing detected. Typical Scaremongering nonsense !!

I'm sure you are right. But if half the people get Omicron and 2% of them have problems then 1% of the population has a long term issue and that would represent a significant increase in demand for medical services. I am not sure what the numbers really are, but neither are you.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Jim Bob

Quote from: armaghniac on January 19, 2022, 08:16:19 PM
Quote from: Jim Bob on January 15, 2022, 07:19:12 PM
Maybe not but I'm sure many other professional athletes , who had Covid , had them as well and nothing detected. Typical Scaremongering nonsense !!

I'm sure you are right. But if half the people get Omicron and 2% of them have problems then 1% of the population has a long term issue and that would represent a significant increase in demand for medical services. I am not sure what the numbers really are, but neither are you.

If ......

seafoid

https://www.ft.com/content/eadd09d2-4617-456c-b97f-8ce970a345b9

With some of his critics in the party pushing for a vote of no confidence in him, Johnson attempted to rally support by ending all remaining Covid restrictions in England, including mandatory face masks and working from home guidance.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU