The Official Golf Thread

[laoislad]

I'm looking for odds on Tianlang Guan the 14 year old to make the cut but can't find any.
Might be worth a couple of yo yo's.

[southdown]

Sarah Stirk has fantastic pins.  What a woman.

[mouview]

Sarah Stirk has fantastic pins.  What a woman.

Glad tweren't just myself thinking that!

[Milltown Row2]

Woods, Tiger    4/1

   Laird, Martin    100/1

   Lawrie, Paul    300/1


Mcilroy, Rory    8/1

   Cabrera, Angel    110/1

   Toms, David    300/1


Mickelson, Phil    11/1

   Jacobson, Fredrik    110/1

   Donaldson, Jamie    300/1


Rose, Justin    18/1

   Van Pelt, Bo    110/1

   Gay, Brian    300/1


Scott, Adam    25/1

   Kaymer, Martin    110/1

   Curtis, Ben    300/1


Bradley, Keegan    25/1

   Johnson, Zach    125/1

   Ishikawa, Ryo    350/1


Schwartzel, Charl    25/1

   Els, Ernie    125/1

   Glover, Lucas    350/1


Oosthuizen, Louis    28/1

   Manassero, Matteo    125/1

   Na, Kevin    350/1


Westwood, Lee    28/1

   Coetzee, George    150/1

   Bjorn, Thomas    350/1


Johnson, Dustin    30/1

   Henley, Russell    150/1

   Lynn, David    350/1


Donald, Luke    30/1

   Olesen, Thorbjorn    150/1

   Leishman, Marc    400/1


Watson, Bubba    35/1

   Cink, Stewart    150/1

   Weir, Mike    500/1


Kuchar, Matt    35/1

   Moore, Ryan    150/1

   Fujita, Hiroyuki    500/1


Snedeker, Brandt    35/1

   Couples, Fred    175/1

   Potter, Ted    500/1


Garcia, Sergio    40/1

   Singh, Vijay    200/1

   Peterson, John    500/1


Poulter, Ian    45/1

   Merrick, John    200/1

   Langer, Bernhard    500/1


Mahan, Hunter    45/1

   Senden, John    200/1

   Wiratchant, Thaworn    750/1


Fowler, Rickie    50/1

   Molinari, Francesco    200/1

   Olazabal, Jose Maria    750/1


Day, Jason    55/1

   Sterne, Richard    200/1

   Smith, Nathan    1000/1


Harrington, Padraig    55/1

   Yang, Y.E    200/1

   Guan, Tian-Lang    1000/1


Stricker, Steve    55/1

   Grace, Branden    200/1

   O'Meara, Mark    1000/1


Mcdowell, Graeme    60/1

   Streelman, Kevin    200/1

   Woosnam, Ian    1000/1


Watney, Nick    60/1

   Garrigus, Robert    200/1

   Weaver, Michael    1000/1


Stenson, Henrik    60/1

   Thompson, Michael    225/1

   Dunbar, Alan    1000/1


Haas, Bill    66/1

   Clark, Tim    225/1

   Vogel, TJ    1000/1


Dufner, Jason    66/1

   Fernandez-Castano, Gonzalo    225/1

   Mize, Larry    1000/1


Simpson, Webb    70/1

   Points, DA    225/1

   Lyle, Sandy    1000/1


Furyk, Jim    70/1

   Piercy, Scott    225/1

   Fox, Steven    1000/1


Choi, KJ    80/1

   Immelman, Trevor    250/1

   Stadler, Craig    1000/1


Hanson, Peter    80/1

   Pettersson, Carl    250/1

   Crenshaw, Ben    1000/1


Colsaerts, Nicolas    90/1

   Huh, John    250/1

   Watson, Tom

[Puckoon]

http://www.golfwrx.com/82203/the-23-golfers-who-can-win-the-masters/

Opinion piece from a golf statistician on who can win this years masters, and how he arrived at the conclusions...

As the world's most popular golf tournament plays this week, I wanted to give a rundown of the Masters from a statistical perspective.

First, I want to discuss what I call the "Critical Holes" in a golf tournament. These are holes that based on tournament history are where the top finishers have gained the most strokes versus the field. For Augusta, they are Nos. 7, 12, 15, 17 and 18. So as you are tracking the tournament, I would key in on these particular holes as they have the largest influence on a golfer's success at Augusta.

The neat thing about the Masters is it is a limited field, and we can immediately eliminate about one fifth of the field as not having a realistic chance of winning the tournament. I would put these as most of the past champions and the amateurs.
•Ben Crenshaw
•Bernhard Langer
•Craig Stadler
•Fred Couples
•Ian Woosnam
•Jose Maria Olazabal
•Larry Mize
•Mark O'Meara
•Mike Weir
•Sandy Lyle
•Tom Watson
•Alan Dunbar
•Michael Weaver
•Steven Fox
•T. J. Vogel
•Tianlang Guan
•Nathan Smith

I would also eliminate the following:
1.Players who are first-time invitees
2.Players whose first Tour win came this year

Since 1935, only one winner has won The Masters in his first appearance; Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. So I would shy away from picking these players:
•Branden Grace
•David Lynn
•George Coetzee
•Jamie Donaldson
•John Huh
•John Peterson
•Nicolas Colsaerts
•Russell Henley
•Scott Piercy
•Ted Potter Jr.
•Thaworn Wiratchant
•Thorbjørn Olesen
•Kevin Streelman
•John Merrick
I would also eliminate players who missed the cut at the Valero Open this past week:
•David Toms
•Gonzalo Fdez-Castano

I will also filter out the European Tour players that I do not have substantial data on:
•Thomas Bjorn
•Paul Lawrie
•Richard Sterne
•Francesco Molinari

Now, we start to get to the nitty-gritty of Augusta. Over the past 10 years, Augusta has heavily favored long hitters who hit the ball well from what I call "The Danger Zone."

The Danger Zone is approach shots from 175- to 225 yards. This is the biggest key because without quality Danger Zone play at the Masters, the golfer will not be successful.

While Augusta National is known for its greens, the make percentage on putts is fairly high from inside 15 feet; likely due to the excellent putting surfaces. The real difficulty on the greens at Augusta is from longer than 20 feet away.

Between the undulations and the super-fast green speed, it becomes a task to not 3-putt on long putts at Augusta. The big reason why long hitters do so well at Augusta now is that the course plays like a par 68 for them, and that allows them to get away with putting worse. So, if a player is not long, they had been bring their putting and Danger Zone play with them. If a player is long, they can get away with lesser putting.

First, I will eliminate the players that I think are too short to play well at Augusta National:
•Tim Clark
•Brian Gay
•Jim Furyk
•Matteo Manassero
•Ben Curtis
•Kevin Na
•Hiroyuki Fujita
•Zach Johnson

I will also take out the players that have struggled from the Danger Zone this year.
•Martin Kaymer
•Ryan Moore
•Ian Poulter
•Steve Stricker
•Hunter Mahan
•Jason Dufner
•Ryo Ishikawa
•Fredrik Jacobson
•Trevor Immelman
•Jason Day

Also, Augusta National does not take too kindly to low ball hitters.

Graeme McDowell's only major championship win came at the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, where his low ball flight helped him control the ball in the wind.
•John Senden
•Carl Pettersson
•Graeme McDowell
•Stewart Cink
•D.A. Points

These players simply have not done much this season to warrant a pick:
•Robert Garrigus
•Lucas Glover
•Retief Goosen
•Peter Hanson
•Padraig Harrington
•Vijay Singh
•Michael Thompson
•Bo Van Pelt
•Ernie Els
•Webb Simpson

That brings us down to 23 players:
•Keegan Bradley
•Angel Cabrera
•K.J. Choi
•Luke Donald
•Rickie Fowler
•Sergio Garcia
•Bill Haas
•Dustin Johnson
•Matt Kuchar
•Martin Laird
•Marc Leishman
•Rory McIlroy
•Phil Mickelson
•Louis Oosthuizen
•Justin Rose
•Charl Schwartzel
•Adam Scott
•Brandt Snedeker
•Henrik Stenson
•Nick Watney
•Bubba Watson
•Lee Westwood
•Tiger Woods

I don't pick players that are better than 10/1 odds, so that means Tiger (7/2) and Rory McIlroy (8/1) are out. But, let's take a look at Tiger's key metrics so far this year:
•Driving Effectiveness: 108th
•Birdie Zone (75-125 yards): 41st
•Safe Zone (125-175 yards): 46th
•Danger Zone (175-225 yards): 43rd
•Short Game (1-20 yards): 20th
•Strokes Gained Putting: 1st

While Tiger has been extremely successful this year, his effectiveness of the tee should be a concern. Furthermore, he's been much more conservative off the tee by leaving his driver in the bag more often than he was last year.

The reason for Tiger's success this year is due to his putting. Not only is he making a lot of putts, but he's No. 1 in putts made from 15- to 25 feet. Typically, putts made from more than 15 feet on Tour is a 'volatile' metric. Meaning, a player can rank well in putts made from longer than 15 feet one month and then rankly poorly the next month.

With Tiger's conservative nature off the tee, he's giving up a lot of yards to the elite players on Tour. But, between his strong iron play and incredible long putting, he is able to find the green and make putts.
His game reminds me a bit of Mike Weir's game in 2003 when Weir was a mediocre driver of the ball, but a top-5 player from 125-200 yards and a top-5 putter in the world. However, Weir needed soft conditions to help him win a Green Jacket. While Tiger hits the ball much longer than Weir did in 2003, I just tend to think that he's leaving too much to risk if he goes conservative off the tee. I can understand making Tiger a favorite, but I think he's more realistically a 9/1 odds or so to win.

And with that, here are my top-10 picks (Rory and Tiger excluded):

Phil Mickelson (10/1)
Justin Rose (20/1)
Dustin Johnson (25/1)
Lee Westwood (25/1)
Louis Oosthuizen (25/1)
Keegan Bradley (28/1)
Rickie Fowler (45/1)
Henrik Stenson (50/1)
Nick Watney (50/1)
Bill Haas (75/1)

Now it's time to sit back and enjoy the show.

[Tony Baloney]

Thanks MR.

Looking at value in the 25 - 40/1 bracket. A few tempting choices between Bradley, Snedeker, Kuchar and Scott. Not sure who my pick is.

Paddy Power are paying out on 6 places.

[Milltown Row2]

Europeans don't win this often. Rory with a bitta form but who knows, Woods is too short a price at 4/1's for any real value though I'd be very happy to back him if he won!! But It's a difficult course, thought Rory played well but missed a few shots also so he could improve, It's interesting that Tiger as Orior said was practicing at the course, he's basically got his life a bit more stable and has worked harder at his game lately

[Minder]

I see McIlroys accent is heading like GMacs

[Orior]

Bubba's press conference

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/golf/mastersaugusta/9982631/The-Masters-2013-Bubba-Watson-cries-in-press-conference-after-green-jacket-question.html

[Milltown Row2]

Bubba's press conference

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/golf/mastersaugusta/9982631/The-Masters-2013-Bubba-Watson-cries-in-press-conference-after-green-jacket-question.html

Seriously!!!!

[Onion Bag]

I have a gut feeling Poulter will have a good tournament, might put a wager on him

I'd hate it if the fcuker won.

I would love it if he won it @ 45/1

[mouview]

Think I'll back McIlroy; Karl McGinty writes his chances off.

[southdown]

My £££ is on big Phil, he drives well and his short game is excellent.

[Minder]

My £££ is on big Phil, he drives well and his short game is excellent.

His car ?

I think it was Johnnie Miller that said if Phil Mickelson couldn't chip or putt he would be selling cars in San Diego.

[offtheground]

Read somewhere that Phil isn't taking a Driver to this event - has a modified 3-wood instead.....


EDIT -

The 'Phrankenwood'
http://www.cbssports.com/golf/blog/eye-on-golf/22036730/masters-phil-mickelsons-phrankenwood-a-3-wood-on-steroids