Brexit.

[sensethetone]

DUP just want a border, not money.

The good thing about the indicative votes is that it lays bare every single MP's intentions.

They voted down every form of soft Brexit or remain type deal last night so it would be hard not to think that they are simply intent on driving the greatest possible wedge as they see it between Ireland north and south despite Nigel Dodds statement last Friday.

Sammy says customs union and single market involvement still would lead to a hardening of the border?

[TheOptimist]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/uk-immigration-rules-deny-ni-born-irish-citizens-access-to-eu-rights-1.3846117#.XKKDCLFmU2k.facebook

I wonder how the Irish government have allowed this to materialise, this will infuriate nationalists in the north.

This is serious. I would guess influenced by all the Brits applying for Irish Passports since brexit!

[Armamike]

The only way to ensure no border checks is to stay in the EU, i.e. in the customs union and single market.  Norway is aligned with the single market but not in the customs union, which means infrastructure and 10 min checks at the Swedish border.  Turkey is in the customs union but not the single market, which can mean hours of delays in some cases.  If there's to be no hard border here then it will be a first, and a precedent being set.  The EU is a conservative, process driven institution so it's hard to see them wanting to take many risks.

[trailer]

It's so f**king frustrating the way the DUP are allowed to run around Westminster wielding a disproportionate amount of power for their electoral size. Nationalism should be in there. Our voice should be heard. At this moment in time, in 11 days time, a border will appear on this island. Paperwork, checks, declarations. It is all on its way unless this madness is stopped.

[imtommygunn]

And the DUP will take no accountability for it just like they take no accountability for anything. Vote no to everything and then you can never be held accountable just like the GFA when loyalists couldn't have IRA men/women being let out of jail - not their fault as they didn't vote for it. RHI no accountability, Paisley in Sri Lanka no accountability, Red Sky no accountability and the list goes on.

If a border happens they will say they didn't vote for it. They didn't vote for anything and this is on them. It is sickening that there is pretty much no nationalist representation in this at all.

[Armamike]

Sinn Fein are loitering about outside Westminster waiting for somebody to interview them.  They look utterly powerless in all of this.  Yes, they're talking to the EU, but it's hard to see what meaningful impact they're having.

[imtommygunn]

You do wonder if their real strategy is let the shit show unfold and it will further the cause for a united ireland.

[God14]

In the event of the UK crashing out on April 12th and a hard border & customs tarriffs invoked

Would a white van man with a van full of tools and materials be expected to pay duty on the materials
What is the 'duty free allowance'  if any, for a tradesman?

[Hound]

You do wonder if their real strategy is let the shit show unfold and it will further the cause for a united ireland.

Do honestly think they sat down and thought this through? Whether it was the right thing to do or not, they were always going to do nothing. No strategy or thought process involved.
What if they'd sat down and had a strategy meeting and came up with the conclusion that this is an unprecedented situation and sets up a golden opportunity where our few seats/votes could make a crucial difference in Brexit. Plus the publicity and airtime they would get in the British media to push their views would be like nothing before.
But no, let's do nothing. 

The DUP are fighting tooth and nail for what they believe in. Pushing their case non-stop. They might be making a hames of it at times, but nobody can question that they are doing whatever they can to the best of their ability on what is a shitshow for all concerned. Their new mantra (that they've fallen into by accident more than anything) of Union First, Brexit Second might finally be a winner for them.

It's absolute dreamland to think any of this will bring about a United Ireland, by SF doing nothing. NI's economy will almost certainly be hardest hit of any region due to Brexit. But Ireland (especially the 25 counties outside Dublin) will be a strong contender for next worst.

[LeoMc]

It's so f**king frustrating the way the DUP are allowed to run around Westminster wielding a disproportionate amount of power for their electoral size. Nationalism should be in there. Our voice should be heard. At this moment in time, in 11 days time, a border will appear on this island. Paperwork, checks, declarations. It is all on its way unless this madness is stopped.

That is FPTP for you.
Lib Dems and UKIP both on around 8%. One has a lot more MP's in WM than the other.
Greens and SNP both on 3%. One has a lot more MP's in WM than the other.
DUP & SF both around 0.01%. One has a lot more MP's in WM than the other.

[Walter Cronc]

Lads to say SF would have any influence is real pie in the sky stuff. Jesus there is upwards of 40 SNP MPs and look how they are treated.

A cohort of Tories would vote the exact opposite to anything SF does out of pure spite and anti irishness.

This shitshow is Englands doing and only the English can resolve it. Unfortunately we are cannon fodder in the middle.

[charlieTully]

And the DUP will take no accountability for it just like they take no accountability for anything. Vote no to everything and then you can never be held accountable just like the GFA when loyalists couldn't have IRA men/women being let out of jail - not their fault as they didn't vote for it. RHI no accountability, Paisley in Sri Lanka no accountability, Red Sky no accountability and the list goes on.

If a border happens they will say they didn't vote for it. They didn't vote for anything and this is on them. It is sickening that there is pretty much no nationalist representation in this at all.

It's sickening that there is still a British presence in Ireland.

[johnnycool]

It's so f**king frustrating the way the DUP are allowed to run around Westminster wielding a disproportionate amount of power for their electoral size. Nationalism should be in there. Our voice should be heard. At this moment in time, in 11 days time, a border will appear on this island. Paperwork, checks, declarations. It is all on its way unless this madness is stopped.

That is FPTP for you.
Lib Dems and UKIP both on around 8%. One has a lot more MP's in WM than the other.
Greens and SNP both on 3%. One has a lot more MP's in WM than the other.
DUP & SF both around 0.01%. One has a lot more MP's in WM than the other.

Hardly anything to do with FPTP when you run on an abstentionist ticket and don't take your seats.

Sinn Fein really can't take their seats in Westminster as ultimately they're a one agenda party, i.e. United Ireland or bust. Taking their seats in the UK Government would be totally contrary to that aim.
It would be like UKIP suddenly deciding Brexit was a bad idea and canvassing for article 50 to be revoked. They'd no longer be UKIP.

[easytiger95]

Upshot of the GFA was that Northern Irish residents could choose to be either British or Irish or both - that was the essential fudge that got it over the line. With Brexit that now changes to being British or European or both.

If a hard border materialises (and whilst I'd say the odds of it appearing are slightly increasing, the odds of it being permanent are vanishingly small) than the first thing that will happen is that NI nationalists will sue for their rights as European citizens, which were guaranteed under the GFA. Than you would have the spectacle of HM Government defending itself for repudiating a treaty it signed and ratified under international law. It won't go that far, even in a world of Trump, Johnson and disrespect for institutions. The pendulum swings slow but it does swing, and a revitalised international system a la the post WWII settlement may just be the result of all the facist flirtations of the past decade. And the UN won't want a permanent member of the security council reneging on UN registered treaties.

The "backstop" is a fact. The DUP are now prepared to sacrifice Brexit to maintain the Union. The irony here is delicious - if the DUP support a no-deal Brexit, they precipitate a border poll. If they support a soft Brexit, they risk being knifed in the back by the ERG and cut adrift by the Conservatives, and facing the possibility of the most left wing and republican-sympathetic Prime Minister ever - who might just call a border poll.

It is remarkable that the only principled stand they could have made, was also the one that was most effective for protecting the status quo - opposing Brexit from the outset. They took Arron Bank's soup despite knowing that leaving the EU, in any form, was poisonous for NI business and agriculture and they did it because they could foresee no consequences - Brexit would be defeated but they would be poster children for the burgeoning far right with dark money for all. Unfortunately for them, they won. And now they are squirming.

If I was Sinn Fein, I wouldn't be doing anything. When your opponents are setting themselves on fire, do not hand them a bucket of water. Theresa May said last week that NI was unprepared for a hard Brexit because of the lack of an assembly. The DUP cried foul straight away. Because they know what it coming. There will be a reckoning after all this is over, and the hegemony the Unionists currently enjoy in NI because of their numbers in Westminster will come to an end, and the Tories will be looking for any scape goat they can find.

Stay out of the way and let them at it.

[Farrandeelin]

Superb post easytiger.