China Coronavirus

[trailer]

Scientists with some clear advice in the UK. They haven't a baldy.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Am I right in saying your against cross border policies, bodies etc?

No. This has a time pressure that normal cross-border politics doesn't. Burning hours for no progress is begrudgingly accepted in politics.


Days spent fukking around with neanderthals and their caveman politics before being able to change measures as far as Coronavirus is concerned can make a big difference when every hour counts.

It doesn't take much time to give the NI a separate update before going public, We're the only other "Country" with a land border. Unless we're a complete irrelevance of course.

To what end?

All it would do would be play to the egos of those in Stormont.

They aren't going to find out significantly earlier than the general public.
They aren't going to make any decisions based on that new information as they cannot agree on the colour of shite as it is.
They aren't going to have any valuable input into the ROI government's decision making process.

As long as Stormont blindly trot out the London line, they are an irrelevance. He's right to utterly ignore them.

[macdanger2]

Interesting comparison of figures between Ireland and Sweden

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0511/1137763-what-can-we-learn-from-swedens-covid-19-icu-figures/

It can be very tricky to compare the Covid-19 experiences of different countries. Populations are not evenly distributed in terms of age, location, ethnicity, social class, or culture. Different groups and regions are not equally susceptible to the virus.

Then there is the fact that countries measure the impact of the coronavirus differently. For instance, Ireland is one of only a very small number of European countries that includes both nursing homes and suspected or probable Covid-19 cases in official numbers.

This doesn't stop people making international comparisons though. With so many people straining at the leash to break out of lockdown, many point to the different experience in Sweden with no lockdown. It raises questions about whether Ireland's social, travel, and work restrictions needed to be so tough here after all.

For anyone who asks that question of Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan, he has a very sharp and succinct answer: "Have you seen the intensive care admissions figures for Sweden?"

Well actually, no, not really. We haven't seen those figures. Sweden's ICU caseload is hardly headline news here. Perhaps it should be. Because there is something important that Sweden's critical care experience can tell us. It is this: there never was any realistic alternative strategy that Ireland could have pursued.

Our healthcare system simply could not have coped with the more relaxed approach taken by Sweden. This graph showing the number of people treated in intensive care in Ireland and in Sweden shows why.



There are two striking observations about the graph. The first is that the underlying level of Covid-19 disease in Sweden, as evidenced by the numbers in intensive care, is running very significantly above the levels of disease in Ireland and has been doing so since the start.

In fact, the level of disease in Sweden is three times higher than in Ireland if the ICU occupancy rates are any guide. If anything, the gap between both countries appears to be widening, as Ireland continues to strangle the spread of the virus by retaining the lockdown while Sweden pursues its more relaxed approach.

The second striking observation is that while the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in intensive care in Ireland was down to 72 by 10 May, on a like-for-like basis the number for Sweden was 233. That is more than three times the level of disease in Ireland.

This is a huge gap. It suggests that if Ireland had followed the Swedish more relaxed approach to social distancing, we would have required at least another 161 beds in intensive care for confirmed Covid-19 patients alone. 

Add to that the additional beds required for three times as many "presumed or suspected" Covid-19 cases - which have always been a significant and constant feature in intensive care. The number of extra beds required for Covid-19 patients would then be above 200 by now.

We just do not have that capacity in intensive care. Notwithstanding the issue about where in the country those vacant beds might have been required, by 10 May we could accommodate, at a push, about 150 additional patients in fully-staffed ICU beds nationwide.



Before this crisis began, Ireland only had about 225 intensive care beds nationally. By 10 May, including non-Covid-19 patients, there were 257 people receiving critical care in Irish hospitals. That means even with the lockdown, if the HSE had not scrambled to expand critical care capacity, hospitals in Ireland would have been in serious trouble by now with medics having to make torturous decisions about who to allow into critical care units and who to turn away.

Our health system could not have coped. Fortunately, that did not happen because of the extra critical care capacity that was put in place.

But what if our National Public Health Emergency Team had advised the Government to follow the Swedes? What if the level of Covid-19 illness was more than three times as high in Ireland as it is now? Because that is precisely what the Swedish intensive care numbers tell us would have happened.

It would have been a disaster. It would have put Ireland right up there with Italy and Spain, in terms of the horrific scenes and experiences that we would have had to endure and witness. The European Centre for Disease Control highlighted that Ireland started into the crisis with the lowest number of intensive care beds per capita in Europe.

Our healthcare system was simply never strong enough to endure the journey that the Swedes embarked on. It just could not have coped and it is hard to imagine how Irish society would have coped.

In an interview with the Financial Times last Friday, Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, who masterminded Sweden's no-lockdown approach, claimed his country will have an advantage over other countries in the autumn. That is when he expects a second wave of coronavirus to hit.

Mr Tegnell says that a very high proportion of Sweden's population, particularly in Stockholm, will have had the virus by then and so have developed some form of immunity. That will bring Sweden closer to so-called herd immunity, which is quite a horrible term when you consider we are talking about real people and the sickness, anguish, fear and grief many have to suffer to achieve such immunity.

Here, however, Chief Medical Officer Dr Holohan makes it very clear at his press briefings that Ireland is not going to go for herd immunity. He also makes no bones about the fact that he is going to be very cautious and conservative (his words) when it comes to easing social restrictions - the polar opposite of his Swedish counterpart.

All the signs suggest that there is likely to be nothing coming from the Covid-19 numbers in Sweden that will cause him to change his mind.

Sweden Ireland details

1. The numbers in the graph for Ireland come from the HSE's Covid-19 Daily Operations Update of Acute Hospitals. The numbers for Sweden are published daily on the Swedish Intensive Care Registry. But since Sweden has twice the population that Ireland has, 10 million people versus 5m here, the Swedish ICU daily total has been divided in two so that the graph shows the numbers receiving critical care for Covid-19 per 5m people in both countries.

2. Crude official figures show that Sweden, with double the population of Ireland, has 2.2 times the number of Covid-19 deaths, suggesting at first glance that Ireland and Sweden might be neck and neck in the international coronavirus league tables.

3. Sweden has been doing very poorly when it comes to Covid-19 in nursing homes, something that Anders Tegnell says he deeply regrets. Care home deaths in Sweden are not included in the official numbers but are in Ireland, where they account for about 60% of all Covid-19 deaths.

4. Sweden's numbers don't include "presumed or suspected" Covid-19 cases either. They are included in Ireland.

5. The level of admission to intensive care is a key international comparator for the underlying level of disease, accounting for about 2.4% of all diagnosed cases according to the European Centre for Disease Control.

6. In Sweden, most primary and secondary schools are still open. So too are restaurants, cafes and shops. Gatherings have to be greater than 50 people before they are banned. It is left to people themselves to voluntarily engage in social distancing, while working from home is a choice that is encouraged rather than enforced.

7. Google's weekly Covid-19 Community Mobility Report which uses big data gathered from mobile phone locations shows a 73% drop in activity in the retail and recreation sector in Ireland compared to a 9% drop in Sweden. Footfall in grocery and pharmacy sector is down 15% in Ireland, but up by 14% in Sweden. The use of public parks is down 27% in Ireland, but up a massive 44% in Sweden.

[HiMucker]

That's a really interesting article mcdanger

[trueblue1234]

Am I right in saying your against cross border policies, bodies etc?

No. This has a time pressure that normal cross-border politics doesn't. Burning hours for no progress is begrudgingly accepted in politics.


Days spent fukking around with neanderthals and their caveman politics before being able to change measures as far as Coronavirus is concerned can make a big difference when every hour counts.

It doesn't take much time to give the NI a separate update before going public, We're the only other "Country" with a land border. Unless we're a complete irrelevance of course.

To what end?

All it would do would be play to the egos of those in Stormont.

They aren't going to find out significantly earlier than the general public.
They aren't going to make any decisions based on that new information as they cannot agree on the colour of shite as it is.
They aren't going to have any valuable input into the ROI government's decision making process.

As long as Stormont blindly trot out the London line, they are an irrelevance. He's right to utterly ignore them.

So that NI can shape some of their decisions based on what is been implemented in the South. They might decide not to use the information, or decide they have a better plan or decide we are going to follow the UK regardless. It doesn't matter. The ROI should still be trying to encourage a all Ireland approach. I don't think they should be treating NI as an irrelevance.

[RadioGAAGAA]

So that NI can shape some of their decisions based on what is been implemented in the South. They might decide not to use the information, or decide they have a better plan or decide we are going to follow the UK regardless. It doesn't matter. The ROI should still be trying to encourage a all Ireland approach. I don't think they should be treating NI as an irrelevance.

Nothing is stopping them from doing that.

They just aren't getting a 30 minute advanced warning.

[trueblue1234]

So that NI can shape some of their decisions based on what is been implemented in the South. They might decide not to use the information, or decide they have a better plan or decide we are going to follow the UK regardless. It doesn't matter. The ROI should still be trying to encourage a all Ireland approach. I don't think they should be treating NI as an irrelevance.

Nothing is stopping them from doing that.

They just aren't getting a 30 minute advanced warning.

Why not 24 hours before or 48 if it's possible. Give NI the opportunity to align and go together to the media.

[GetOverTheBar]

Hardly surprising, but the NI announcement was a whole pile of nothing.

[screenexile]

Hardly surprising, but the NI announcement was a whole pile of nothing.

Yeah they needed to announce some kind of criteria or time scale otherwise it's all a bit meaningless as we've seen basically the same plan from the UK & Ireland.

Although if you're looking at a rough outline of changes every 3 weeks it looks like School's out for summer!

[RadioGAAGAA]

Why not 24 hours before or 48 if it's possible. Give NI the opportunity to align and go together to the media.

Why wait that length of time when that could literally be a life or death decision - and your holding it back for a bunch of imbeciles to play tribal politics?

[trueblue1234]

Why not 24 hours before or 48 if it's possible. Give NI the opportunity to align and go together to the media.

Why wait that length of time when that could literally be a life or death decision - and your holding it back for a bunch of imbeciles to play tribal politics?

You not holding anything back. You think they didn't know the content of what they were releasing 24 hrs before? I don't believe that. It takes time to call a media announcement. Plus they would be advising NI what they were planning to do. Not provide a full written policy document.
Imbeciles or not it wouldn't have taken much effort to do. Unless as I said we're a complete irrelevance. Which is fine, just come out and say that. I'd be disgusted personally at that stance as a Nationalist living in NI but again that would just be my opinion.

[Jeepers Creepers]

Wuhan to attempt to test its entire population of 11 million in 10 days.

[currychip]

So that NI can shape some of their decisions based on what is been implemented in the South. They might decide not to use the information, or decide they have a better plan or decide we are going to follow the UK regardless. It doesn't matter. The ROI should still be trying to encourage a all Ireland approach. I don't think they should be treating NI as an irrelevance.

Nothing is stopping them from doing that.

They just aren't getting a 30 minute advanced warning.

According to the Belfast Telegraph on Tuesday 5th May Coveney said that they gave the NI Executive a "heads up" the day before the Republic announced details of easing the lock down.  How much detail was given, haven't seen that anywhere.   

Link here https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/dublin-minister-says-important-to-inform-irish-people-over-northern-ireland-executive-on-coronavirus-lockdown-plans-39181994.html

[RadioGAAGAA]

You not holding anything back. You think they didn't know the content of what they were releasing 24 hrs before? I don't believe that. It takes time to call a media announcement.

I'd say they did not know all the details 24 hrs before.

I'd also say it takes very little time to call a media announcement right now. Hour or two tops. Sure most media won't actually be in live attendance, they'll be watching a webstream.

Plus they would be advising NI what they were planning to do. Not provide a full written policy document.

Meh, I see little added value in them devoting anything beyond a phone call (if it suits) to tell them "this is roughly what we are gonna do from tomorrow, make of it what you will".

[Captain Obvious]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-five-stage-plan-for-exiting-lockdown-published-in-north-1.4251514?mode=amp