China Coronavirus

Started by lurganblue, January 23, 2020, 09:52:32 AM

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Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

Quote from: trailer on April 21, 2020, 11:15:26 AM
Quote from: gaafan2 on April 21, 2020, 10:47:41 AM
Quote from: Smurfy123 on April 21, 2020, 10:13:15 AM
Lads dare I say it but it has not been anywhere near as bad as first predicted
Now I say that with my upmost condolences with the family's whose loved ones have passed away
Robbie Swann said this morning that his early predictions of close to 2000 deaths are massively off the mark
ICU beds are only 40% full
PPE seems well under control compared to the UK
Hospitals across the north are pretty much empty(a lot to do with no one going to A an E)
Now I know a lot of this has got to do with lockdown happening but has this been somewhat of an over reaction? How many of the 200 had underlying problems?
Now our biggest problem now is our care homes and not the general public
We have paralysed the economy which will result in deaths and bankruptcy for years
Just my thoughts don't eat the head of me

+1

+2

I'd agree. The numbers are a mess right from the early predictions, to how many are actually infected and have died. The wife (a nurse) says the hospitals are empty and there's literally very little happening. Granted she's not on a Covid ward but some of her friends are and they say similar. I'd expect a controlled and gradual relaxation of restrictions shortly.

Altnagelvin is relatively quiet outside covid 19 wards, the 4 wards set aside for covid 19 have not seen a big increase in last 2 weeks, PPE is the big issue in there.

GetOverTheBar

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on April 21, 2020, 11:19:50 AM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on April 20, 2020, 11:50:18 AM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on April 20, 2020, 11:31:42 AM
During this pandemic are normal flu deaths being recorded as just that, flu deaths and what is the rate of those since this all started ?

Probably very little as the flu will be getting few chances to spread.

Might have to hold my hands up here:

QuoteNearly 185,000 people have died compared to around 175,000 on average compared to past five years - up until the pandemic hit the death rate was lower than average.

But the figures for year-to-date also show the impact of flu and pneumonia compared to coronavirus.

The number of deaths from flu and pneumonia - at more than 32,000 - is three times higher than the total number of coronavirus deaths this year.

This difference will obviously narrow in the coming weeks as the flu season is coming to an end.

But all of this relies on clinical judgement rather than a diagnostic test. Flu and coronavirus have similar symptoms - cough and fever - and flu is not tested for.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519


But in saying that - how many of those flu/pneumonia deaths that are occurring outside of hospital have an accompanying COVID test and have COVID down as reason for death if a positive test?

Will depend on the Medical Practitioner, like I said earlier, like any job - you'll have people who take paperwork seriously, you'll have people who just tick the box to get the paper out of the road. Covid-19 could be being ticked to get it out of the road by some which is reflected in the stats we get daily.

whitegoodman

Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 21, 2020, 11:31:34 AM
Quote from: trailer on April 21, 2020, 11:15:26 AM
Quote from: gaafan2 on April 21, 2020, 10:47:41 AM
Quote from: Smurfy123 on April 21, 2020, 10:13:15 AM
Lads dare I say it but it has not been anywhere near as bad as first predicted
Now I say that with my upmost condolences with the family’s whose loved ones have passed away
Robbie Swann said this morning that his early predictions of close to 2000 deaths are massively off the mark
ICU beds are only 40% full
PPE seems well under control compared to the UK
Hospitals across the north are pretty much empty(a lot to do with no one going to A an E)
Now I know a lot of this has got to do with lockdown happening but has this been somewhat of an over reaction? How many of the 200 had underlying problems?
Now our biggest problem now is our care homes and not the general public
We have paralysed the economy which will result in deaths and bankruptcy for years
Just my thoughts don’t eat the head of me

+1

+2

I'd agree. The numbers are a mess right from the early predictions, to how many are actually infected and have died. The wife (a nurse) says the hospitals are empty and there's literally very little happening. Granted she's not on a Covid ward but some of her friends are and they say similar. I'd expect a controlled and gradual relaxation of restrictions shortly.

Altnagelvin is relatively quiet outside covid 19 wards, the 4 wards set aside for covid 19 have not seen a big increase in last 2 weeks, PPE is the big issue in there.

Has your wife always worked in ICU or has she been pulled into it for Covid ?  Are they likely to start pulling staff back out of there if numbers decrease in the coming weeks ?

RadioGAAGAA

#3828
Quote from: Smurfy123 on April 21, 2020, 10:13:15 AM
Lads dare I say it but it has not been anywhere near as bad as first predicted
Now I say that with my upmost condolences with the family's whose loved ones have passed away
Robbie Swann said this morning that his early predictions of close to 2000 deaths are massively off the mark
ICU beds are only 40% full
PPE seems well under control compared to the UK
Hospitals across the north are pretty much empty(a lot to do with no one going to A an E)
Now I know a lot of this has got to do with lockdown happening but has this been somewhat of an over reaction? How many of the 200 had underlying problems?
Now our biggest problem now is our care homes and not the general public
We have paralysed the economy which will result in deaths and bankruptcy for years
Just my thoughts don't eat the head of me

The problem is - things are not as bad as could be *because* of the measures taken that have crashed the economy.

If we release back without visibility of any immediate changes, then there is a high risk in 2-3 weeks the health system is swamped - the 2nd peak - and there would be no visibility of it until the point people start arriving in the wards - at which point you are 2-3 weeks behind that curve ramp and are f**ked.


The solution is to dramatically ramp up testing, ideally we'd be in a situation like Germany, with a strong testing/tracing system already in place.

But, we are where we are - so its ramp up testing as much as possible, it won't be perfect, but it has to be made work - and not just of people being admitted to hospitals, but try to identify people who would be in contact with many - key links in the social chains - shopworkers, home help etc - test them repeatedly and often and use that as a means of measuring virus levels in general populace. Then start relaxing certain lockdown measures, carefully waiting to see their effects on the virus spread. Basically then "tune" the lockdown measures to a point where health admissions are at an acceptable level.
i usse an speelchekor

imtommygunn

Yeah the medical profession would seem to be of the opinion wave 2 could be worse(up north at least) so I doubt that resources will be released any time soon.

Also it is because of lockdown I would say that we're not as bad as we could be. I still think flybe going under saved a lot of bother up north as the routes in and out were a lot less. You'd be less likely to go on 1 day business trips(or short busness trips) from London.

It still interests me as to how many have had this asymptomatically and whether considerably more have had it than is thought. I still think there is not a full handle on how people are getting this either. (e.g. if you read the GAA thread with someone suggesting handpassing a football which someone else has touched etc you have to wonder what could spread it. If it's that easy to spread then we'd all have had it but the question is how easy is it to spread? There are varying reports on how long it stays on surfaces).

RadioGAAGAA

Yep - basically economies across the world are waiting for the antibody test to give a better picture of how prevalent it is.
i usse an speelchekor

Milltown Row2

And where are we with an effective anti body test?

And you'll never make it as a politician, holding your hands up in your early post wouldn't be the norm!
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: Milltown Row2 on April 21, 2020, 12:19:01 PM
And where are we with an effective anti body test?

Dunno - there have been quite a few false dawns with it so they are obviously having more trouble than envisaged.

Sounds like its one of those things - you won't know when it'll be done till its done. Been there before and had to keep explaining to dumb project managers how a novel unknown is not quantifiable.
i usse an speelchekor

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

Quote from: whitegoodman on April 21, 2020, 11:47:51 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 21, 2020, 11:31:34 AM
Quote from: trailer on April 21, 2020, 11:15:26 AM
Quote from: gaafan2 on April 21, 2020, 10:47:41 AM
Quote from: Smurfy123 on April 21, 2020, 10:13:15 AM
Lads dare I say it but it has not been anywhere near as bad as first predicted
Now I say that with my upmost condolences with the family's whose loved ones have passed away
Robbie Swann said this morning that his early predictions of close to 2000 deaths are massively off the mark
ICU beds are only 40% full
PPE seems well under control compared to the UK
Hospitals across the north are pretty much empty(a lot to do with no one going to A an E)
Now I know a lot of this has got to do with lockdown happening but has this been somewhat of an over reaction? How many of the 200 had underlying problems?
Now our biggest problem now is our care homes and not the general public
We have paralysed the economy which will result in deaths and bankruptcy for years
Just my thoughts don't eat the head of me

+1

+2

I'd agree. The numbers are a mess right from the early predictions, to how many are actually infected and have died. The wife (a nurse) says the hospitals are empty and there's literally very little happening. Granted she's not on a Covid ward but some of her friends are and they say similar. I'd expect a controlled and gradual relaxation of restrictions shortly.

Altnagelvin is relatively quiet outside covid 19 wards, the 4 wards set aside for covid 19 have not seen a big increase in last 2 weeks, PPE is the big issue in there.

Has your wife always worked in ICU or has she been pulled into it for Covid ?  Are they likely to start pulling staff back out of there if numbers decrease in the coming weeks ?

It is not ICU. The way it is working is as follows,, you come in to test centre, if positive you go to one of four wards for medical care, some will stay there and be discharged if things go well. These wards will have some patients on breathing  assistance(not ventilator) The really bad cases, ie ventilation  etc go to ICU. She was deployed there 3 weeks ago from another part of hospital, eventually if things go to plan she will go back to her own area, no word yet however

Smurfy123

#3834
There is no evidence at all to suggest that it can spread from surfaces etc. The scientists at WHO have come out and said that.
We need to slowly start lifting restrictions here and start getting things back to normal.
Shops open
Schools back in strict social distancing (20% attendance each day) All kids back 1 day a week
Building sites open
Parks open
Anyone over the age of 70 needs to isolate for another 6 weeks
We are going to see deaths but not as many as people think

clarshack

Quote from: Smurfy123 on April 21, 2020, 12:36:23 PM
There is no evidence at all to suggest that it can spread from surfaces etc. The scientists at WHO have come out and said that.
We need to slowly start lifting restrictions here and start getting things back to normal.
Shops open
Schools back in strict social distancing (20% attendance each day) All kids back 1 day a week
Building sites open
Parks open
Anyone over the age of 70 needs to isolate for another 6 weeks
We are going to see deaths but not as many as people think

would agree with this.

J70

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on April 21, 2020, 11:52:44 AM
Quote from: Smurfy123 on April 21, 2020, 10:13:15 AM
Lads dare I say it but it has not been anywhere near as bad as first predicted
Now I say that with my upmost condolences with the family's whose loved ones have passed away
Robbie Swann said this morning that his early predictions of close to 2000 deaths are massively off the mark
ICU beds are only 40% full
PPE seems well under control compared to the UK
Hospitals across the north are pretty much empty(a lot to do with no one going to A an E)
Now I know a lot of this has got to do with lockdown happening but has this been somewhat of an over reaction? How many of the 200 had underlying problems?
Now our biggest problem now is our care homes and not the general public
We have paralysed the economy which will result in deaths and bankruptcy for years
Just my thoughts don't eat the head of me

The problem is - things are not as bad as could be *because* of the measures taken that have crashed the economy.

If we release back without visibility of any immediate changes, then there is a high risk in 2-3 weeks the health system is swamped - the 2nd peak - and there would be no visibility of it until the point people start arriving in the wards - at which point you are 2-3 weeks behind that curve ramp and are f**ked.


The solution is to dramatically ramp up testing, ideally we'd be in a situation like Germany, with a strong testing/tracing system already in place.

But, we are where we are - so its ramp up testing as much as possible, it won't be perfect, but it has to be made work - and not just of people being admitted to hospitals, but try to identify people who would be in contact with many - key links in the social chains - shopworkers, home help etc - test them repeatedly and often and use that as a means of measuring virus levels in general populace. Then start relaxing certain lockdown measures, carefully waiting to see their effects on the virus spread. Basically then "tune" the lockdown measures to a point where health admissions are at an acceptable level.

Its amazing that you have to actually point that out.

But not surprising. Its happens every time there's some big issue that requires mass response. Then, after the appropriate measures are taken or imposed to contain or prevent the problem, you have the backlash saying it was all bullshit or overstated in the first place, as if the preventative measures were irrelevant to the relatively happy outcome.

Milltown Row2

 It was completely needed, wish we'd have shut the airports at the start to, hopefully if something like this happens again that the first action. If it's not entering the country it can't generate
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

Smurfy123

Robbie Swann prediction was made with lockdown measures
His scientists estimated 15000 deaths with lockdown in place
Even with no lockdown I can't imagine numbers being close to 5000

five points

Quote from: J70 on April 21, 2020, 12:49:08 PM

Its amazing that you have to actually point that out.

But not surprising. Its happens every time there's some big issue that requires mass response. Then, after the appropriate measures are taken or imposed to contain or prevent the problem, you have the backlash saying it was all bullshit or overstated in the first place, as if the preventative measures were irrelevant to the relatively happy outcome.

The thing is that the economy has never previously been shut down in the history of the State. For the simple reason that taking such drastic action will never result in any sort of relatively happy outcome.