Cryptocurrency

Started by gallsman, September 01, 2017, 02:36:49 PM

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screenexile


Smokin Joe

I disagree, at least with respect to Bitcoin (the alts could be different).

Yes, there will be some short term dips, but if you are buying to hold for a number of years my view is that there is a less than 10% chance that a BTC will be worth less then than it is now and the upside is pretty much anything.
As I said yesterday, it is now emerging as a genuine store of value.

trailer


screenexile

Quote from: Smokin Joe on April 14, 2021, 07:06:27 AM
I disagree, at least with respect to Bitcoin (the alts could be different).

Yes, there will be some short term dips, but if you are buying to hold for a number of years my view is that there is a less than 10% chance that a BTC will be worth less then than it is now and the upside is pretty much anything.
As I said yesterday, it is now emerging as a genuine store of value.

So it is something where you're giving odds on the value increasing or decreasing... and you don't think it's a gamble??

It's all gambling stocks and shares/fx trading/crypto. You can't say it's not gambling!

Smokin Joe

Quote from: screenexile on April 14, 2021, 09:08:27 AM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on April 14, 2021, 07:06:27 AM
I disagree, at least with respect to Bitcoin (the alts could be different).

Yes, there will be some short term dips, but if you are buying to hold for a number of years my view is that there is a less than 10% chance that a BTC will be worth less then than it is now and the upside is pretty much anything.
As I said yesterday, it is now emerging as a genuine store of value.

So it is something where you're giving odds on the value increasing or decreasing... and you don't think it's a gamble??

It's all gambling stocks and shares/fx trading/crypto. You can't say it's not gambling!

What I mean is that I don't see much more risk over the long term in investing in bitcoin compared to equities.

What's the alternative to investing in some form of asset?  If you don't invest then it's worse than gambling as the real inflation rate is around 10% (ignore what the CPI / RPI rate is as it excludes many categories of expenditure), and so if you hold in cash you are guaranteed to lose purchasing power in the future. 

I would contend there is no risk free way of holding your money, and it was in that context that I mean it's not gambling, which for me means you have a high risk or ruin (or getting rekt as the youngsters say).

smelmoth

Quote from: Smokin Joe on April 14, 2021, 09:19:57 AM
Quote from: screenexile on April 14, 2021, 09:08:27 AM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on April 14, 2021, 07:06:27 AM
I disagree, at least with respect to Bitcoin (the alts could be different).

Yes, there will be some short term dips, but if you are buying to hold for a number of years my view is that there is a less than 10% chance that a BTC will be worth less then than it is now and the upside is pretty much anything.
As I said yesterday, it is now emerging as a genuine store of value.

So it is something where you're giving odds on the value increasing or decreasing... and you don't think it's a gamble??

It's all gambling stocks and shares/fx trading/crypto. You can't say it's not gambling!

What I mean is that I don't see much more risk over the long term in investing in bitcoin compared to equities.

What's the alternative to investing in some form of asset?  If you don't invest then it's worse than gambling as the real inflation rate is around 10% (ignore what the CPI / RPI rate is as it excludes many categories of expenditure), and so if you hold in cash you are guaranteed to lose purchasing power in the future. 

I would contend there is no risk free way of holding your money, and it was in that context that I mean it's not gambling, which for me means you have a high risk or ruin (or getting rekt as the youngsters say).

There is gambling and there is gambling.

I don't gamble on sport but I can at least see how you can analyse the factors behind some sporting outcomes.

And whilst share prices and exchange rates can at times defy logic there are real economy factors that influence outcomes that can be analysed in advance and underpin values.

That does not apply to cryptocurrencies. They generate no revenues. People buy them today in the hope that they worth more tomorrow. You can only earn money if you cash out. You cash out by selling and converting your investment into cash and yet they are apparently a store of value alternative to cash.

Cryptocurrency investment is not the same as share investment or even stock/currency speculation.

There will be plenty of big name investors audibly ploughing in to the market. They move out quietly. It's a game. Don't be gamed

Smokin Joe

#231
Let me be clear, I was talking solely about Bitcoin, not all the other Cryptocurrencies or Alt Coins as they are an entirely different conversation.

Smelmoth, what revenues does gold create?
None, but it still doesn't stop a gold bullion being worth whatever it is worth.
What revenues do jewellry or fancy art generate? But they still hold their value.

Think of Bitcoin the same. An asset just has to be accepted as a Store of Value and then that is what it becomes.  My view (and if you don't hold the same view then that's fine) is that Bitcoin is on the path to being accepted as a bona fide Store of Value; just like a painting or a bit of gold. #

I say this is it is apparent that more corporations are getting involved now as a legitimate part of their treasury holdings (again, I'm just talking about Bitcoin here, no other crypto assets) and the supply is fixed. 

It's some diversification for me as I still have much more in the traditional investments (pensions and stocks and shares ISAs) that I do in Bitcoin. For sure I wouldn't go all in on Bitcoin, just the same way as I wouldn't on any particular individual asset.

smelmoth

#232
Quote from: Smokin Joe on April 14, 2021, 09:50:32 AM
Let me be clear, I was talking solely about Bitcoin, not all the other Cryptocurrencies or Alt Coins as they are an entirely different conversation.

Smelmoth, what revenues does gold create?
None, but it still doesn't stop a gold bullion being worth whatever it is worth.
What revenues do jewellry or fancy art generate? But they still hold their value.

Think of Bitcoin the same. An asset just has to be accepted as a Store of Value and then that is what it becomes.  My view (and if you don't hold the same view then that's fine) is that Bitcoin is on the path to being accepted as a bona fide Store of Value; just like a painting or a bit of gold. #

I say this is it is apparent that more corporations are getting involved now as a legitimate part of their treasury holdings (again, I'm just talking about Bitcoin here, no other crypto assets) and the supply is fixed. 

It's some diversification for me as I still have much more in the traditional investments (pensions and stocks and shares ISAs) that I do in Bitcoin. For sure I wouldn't go all in on Bitcoin, just the same way as I wouldn't on any particular individual asset.

Until now I have only heard of cryptocurrencies being proposed as alternative to cash, gilts, stocks, currency or investments that combine some or all of those. Hence my focus on them.

You are now bringing in gold, art and jewellery.

Jewellery's inherent value is in precious metals and to a degree workmanship and the history (who owned/ wore some items before). Gold is related to this because of what it can be turned into. Other things are as rare as precious metals but people just don't like looking at them as much. And don't think people will enjoy looking at them in the future. They could however be wrong and some things will become less fashionable and be worth less in the future. Not aware of anyone who likes looking at Bitcoin.

Paint on canvas or a block of marble have little inherent value. What is done with them technically and aesthetically can add value. If it is any good that is.

There is behaviour around the edges where a self destroying physical artwork sells for big money. But that is Bill Drummond style performance art and is confined to very few individuals.

Bitcoin offers none of these. It works on the principle that rare (or restricted supply) is automatically valuable. It has nothing to back that up.

But if I was a big investor with deep pockets I could easily make a lot of noise about putting $10bn into Bitcoin and cashing in on the drip straight away as the price rises on foot of my announcement.

Tulips from Amsterdam

trailer

Quote from: smelmoth on April 14, 2021, 10:35:28 AM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on April 14, 2021, 09:50:32 AM
Let me be clear, I was talking solely about Bitcoin, not all the other Cryptocurrencies or Alt Coins as they are an entirely different conversation.

Smelmoth, what revenues does gold create?
None, but it still doesn't stop a gold bullion being worth whatever it is worth.
What revenues do jewellry or fancy art generate? But they still hold their value.

Think of Bitcoin the same. An asset just has to be accepted as a Store of Value and then that is what it becomes.  My view (and if you don't hold the same view then that's fine) is that Bitcoin is on the path to being accepted as a bona fide Store of Value; just like a painting or a bit of gold. #

I say this is it is apparent that more corporations are getting involved now as a legitimate part of their treasury holdings (again, I'm just talking about Bitcoin here, no other crypto assets) and the supply is fixed. 

It's some diversification for me as I still have much more in the traditional investments (pensions and stocks and shares ISAs) that I do in Bitcoin. For sure I wouldn't go all in on Bitcoin, just the same way as I wouldn't on any particular individual asset.

Until now I have only heard of cryptocurrencies being proposed as alternative to cash, gilts, stocks, currency or investments that combine some or all of those. Hence my focus on them.

You are now bringing in gold, art and jewellery.

Jewellery's inherent value is in precious metals and to a degree workmanship and the history (who owned/ wore some items before). Gold is related to this because of what it can be turned into. Other things are as rare as precious metals but people just don't like looking at them as much. And don't think people will enjoy looking at them in the future. They could however be wrong and some things will become less fashionable and be worth less in the future. Not aware of anyone who likes looking at Bitcoin.

Paint on canvas or a block of marble have little inherent value. What is done with them technically and aesthetically can add value. If it is any good that is.

There is behaviour around the edges where a self destroying physical artwork sells for big money. But that is Bill Drummond style performance art and is confined to very few individuals.

Bitcoin offers none of these. It works on the principle that rare (or restricted supply) is automatically valuable. It has nothing to back that up.

But if I was a big investor with deep pockets I could easily make a lot of noise about putting $10bn into Bitcoin and cashing in on the drip straight away as the price rises on foot of my announcement.

Tulips from Amsterdam

Don't look up NFTs whatever you do.

You don't allow for the technical aspect of crypto which adds value.

But what is value? We only value something because of how we feel about it. That the big question. If people didn't value gold it would be like any other rock on the ground.

smelmoth

Quote from: trailer on April 14, 2021, 11:15:07 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 14, 2021, 10:35:28 AM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on April 14, 2021, 09:50:32 AM
Let me be clear, I was talking solely about Bitcoin, not all the other Cryptocurrencies or Alt Coins as they are an entirely different conversation.

Smelmoth, what revenues does gold create?
None, but it still doesn't stop a gold bullion being worth whatever it is worth.
What revenues do jewellry or fancy art generate? But they still hold their value.

Think of Bitcoin the same. An asset just has to be accepted as a Store of Value and then that is what it becomes.  My view (and if you don't hold the same view then that's fine) is that Bitcoin is on the path to being accepted as a bona fide Store of Value; just like a painting or a bit of gold. #

I say this is it is apparent that more corporations are getting involved now as a legitimate part of their treasury holdings (again, I'm just talking about Bitcoin here, no other crypto assets) and the supply is fixed. 

It's some diversification for me as I still have much more in the traditional investments (pensions and stocks and shares ISAs) that I do in Bitcoin. For sure I wouldn't go all in on Bitcoin, just the same way as I wouldn't on any particular individual asset.

Until now I have only heard of cryptocurrencies being proposed as alternative to cash, gilts, stocks, currency or investments that combine some or all of those. Hence my focus on them.

You are now bringing in gold, art and jewellery.

Jewellery's inherent value is in precious metals and to a degree workmanship and the history (who owned/ wore some items before). Gold is related to this because of what it can be turned into. Other things are as rare as precious metals but people just don't like looking at them as much. And don't think people will enjoy looking at them in the future. They could however be wrong and some things will become less fashionable and be worth less in the future. Not aware of anyone who likes looking at Bitcoin.

Paint on canvas or a block of marble have little inherent value. What is done with them technically and aesthetically can add value. If it is any good that is.

There is behaviour around the edges where a self destroying physical artwork sells for big money. But that is Bill Drummond style performance art and is confined to very few individuals.

Bitcoin offers none of these. It works on the principle that rare (or restricted supply) is automatically valuable. It has nothing to back that up.

But if I was a big investor with deep pockets I could easily make a lot of noise about putting $10bn into Bitcoin and cashing in on the drip straight away as the price rises on foot of my announcement.

Tulips from Amsterdam

Don't look up NFTs whatever you do.

You don't allow for the technical aspect of crypto which adds value.

But what is value? We only value something because of how we feel about it. That the big question. If people didn't value gold it would be like any other rock on the ground.

Okay hit me with it. I have already factored in the use of technology to restrict the supply of something but beyond that what is the value (to the holder) in the technology?

Capt Pat

Bernie Madoff died today. Would Bernie Madoff have invested in cryptocurrency? Would Bernie Madoff have set up a cryptocurrency?

gallsman

Quote from: smelmoth on April 14, 2021, 10:35:28 AM

Until now I have only heard of cryptocurrencies being proposed as alternative to cash, gilts, stocks, currency or investments that combine some or all of those. Hence my focus on them.

You are now bringing in gold, art and jewellery.

Jewellery's inherent value is in precious metals and to a degree workmanship and the history (who owned/ wore some items before). Gold is related to this because of what it can be turned into. Other things are as rare as precious metals but people just don't like looking at them as much. And don't think people will enjoy looking at them in the future. They could however be wrong and some things will become less fashionable and be worth less in the future. Not aware of anyone who likes looking at Bitcoin.

Paint on canvas or a block of marble have little inherent value. What is done with them technically and aesthetically can add value. If it is any good that is.

There is behaviour around the edges where a self destroying physical artwork sells for big money. But that is Bill Drummond style performance art and is confined to very few individuals.

Bitcoin offers none of these. It works on the principle that rare (or restricted supply) is automatically valuable. It has nothing to back that up.

But if I was a big investor with deep pockets I could easily make a lot of noise about putting $10bn into Bitcoin and cashing in on the drip straight away as the price rises on foot of my announcement.

Tulips from Amsterdam

I'm no crypto bro but this is utter nonsense. Gold is a shit metal. It's soft and it tarnishes. It has no practical use other than to make jewellery, which is arbitrarily classified as appealing by some people. It's used as a store of value because people have said it has a value and it's, comparatively, scarce.. Exact same for gemstones.. And bitcoin.

If you have only heard of bitcoin being discussed as a medium of exchange rather than as a store of value, you've not participated in or observed the discussion around it for a good 6 or 7 years.

Mikhail Prokhorov

Quote from: gallsman on April 15, 2021, 12:08:01 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 14, 2021, 10:35:28 AM

Until now I have only heard of cryptocurrencies being proposed as alternative to cash, gilts, stocks, currency or investments that combine some or all of those. Hence my focus on them.

You are now bringing in gold, art and jewellery.

Jewellery's inherent value is in precious metals and to a degree workmanship and the history (who owned/ wore some items before). Gold is related to this because of what it can be turned into. Other things are as rare as precious metals but people just don't like looking at them as much. And don't think people will enjoy looking at them in the future. They could however be wrong and some things will become less fashionable and be worth less in the future. Not aware of anyone who likes looking at Bitcoin.

Paint on canvas or a block of marble have little inherent value. What is done with them technically and aesthetically can add value. If it is any good that is.

There is behaviour around the edges where a self destroying physical artwork sells for big money. But that is Bill Drummond style performance art and is confined to very few individuals.

Bitcoin offers none of these. It works on the principle that rare (or restricted supply) is automatically valuable. It has nothing to back that up.

But if I was a big investor with deep pockets I could easily make a lot of noise about putting $10bn into Bitcoin and cashing in on the drip straight away as the price rises on foot of my announcement.

Tulips from Amsterdam

I'm no crypto bro but this is utter nonsense. Gold is a shit metal. It's soft and it tarnishes. It has no practical use other than to make jewellery, which is arbitrarily classified as appealing by some people. It's used as a store of value because people have said it has a value and it's, comparatively, scarce.. Exact same for gemstones.. And bitcoin.

If you have only heard of bitcoin being discussed as a medium of exchange rather than as a store of value, you've not participated in or observed the discussion around it for a good 6 or 7 years.

sensible, reasoned analysis there gallsman

smelmoth

This has taken an interesting turn.

I have only made 4 posts to this thread so I will not repost them they are easy to check out. In summary 100% of my comments have been about cryptocurrencies as a store of value and investment. 0% of my posts are bout bitcoin (or any cryptocurrency) as a medium of exchange. And yet this leads Gallsman to post

Quote from: gallsman on April 15, 2021, 12:08:01 AM
I'm no crypto bro but this is utter nonsense. Gold is a shit metal. It's soft and it tarnishes. It has no practical use other than to make jewellery, which is arbitrarily classified as appealing by some people. It's used as a store of value because people have said it has a value and it's, comparatively, scarce.. Exact same for gemstones.. And bitcoin.

If you have only heard of bitcoin being discussed as a medium of exchange rather than as a store of value, you've not participated in or observed the discussion around it for a good 6 or 7 years.

To which Mikhail responds
Quote from: Mikhail Prokhorov on April 15, 2021, 12:46:07 AM
sensible, reasoned analysis there gallsman

Very strange. I could make the point about these guys seeing what they want to see and extrapolate that out into a wider point about cryptocurrency investors but happy to hear any other explanation of this behaviour first

trailer

Quote from: smelmoth on April 14, 2021, 02:18:24 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 14, 2021, 11:15:07 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 14, 2021, 10:35:28 AM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on April 14, 2021, 09:50:32 AM
Let me be clear, I was talking solely about Bitcoin, not all the other Cryptocurrencies or Alt Coins as they are an entirely different conversation.

Smelmoth, what revenues does gold create?
None, but it still doesn't stop a gold bullion being worth whatever it is worth.
What revenues do jewellry or fancy art generate? But they still hold their value.

Think of Bitcoin the same. An asset just has to be accepted as a Store of Value and then that is what it becomes.  My view (and if you don't hold the same view then that's fine) is that Bitcoin is on the path to being accepted as a bona fide Store of Value; just like a painting or a bit of gold. #

I say this is it is apparent that more corporations are getting involved now as a legitimate part of their treasury holdings (again, I'm just talking about Bitcoin here, no other crypto assets) and the supply is fixed. 

It's some diversification for me as I still have much more in the traditional investments (pensions and stocks and shares ISAs) that I do in Bitcoin. For sure I wouldn't go all in on Bitcoin, just the same way as I wouldn't on any particular individual asset.

Until now I have only heard of cryptocurrencies being proposed as alternative to cash, gilts, stocks, currency or investments that combine some or all of those. Hence my focus on them.

You are now bringing in gold, art and jewellery.

Jewellery's inherent value is in precious metals and to a degree workmanship and the history (who owned/ wore some items before). Gold is related to this because of what it can be turned into. Other things are as rare as precious metals but people just don't like looking at them as much. And don't think people will enjoy looking at them in the future. They could however be wrong and some things will become less fashionable and be worth less in the future. Not aware of anyone who likes looking at Bitcoin.

Paint on canvas or a block of marble have little inherent value. What is done with them technically and aesthetically can add value. If it is any good that is.

There is behaviour around the edges where a self destroying physical artwork sells for big money. But that is Bill Drummond style performance art and is confined to very few individuals.

Bitcoin offers none of these. It works on the principle that rare (or restricted supply) is automatically valuable. It has nothing to back that up.

But if I was a big investor with deep pockets I could easily make a lot of noise about putting $10bn into Bitcoin and cashing in on the drip straight away as the price rises on foot of my announcement.

Tulips from Amsterdam

Don't look up NFTs whatever you do.

You don't allow for the technical aspect of crypto which adds value.

But what is value? We only value something because of how we feel about it. That the big question. If people didn't value gold it would be like any other rock on the ground.

Okay hit me with it. I have already factored in the use of technology to restrict the supply of something but beyond that what is the value (to the holder) in the technology?

Bitcoin is a store of value, same as anything else. It's pretty much been proven at this stage. 1 coin is worth over $60k. It's market cap will exceed Gold at some point. It's done.
Other Cryptocurrencies are solving real world problems. Smart contracts will be the future. Lots of things do and will use them. Ether (Ethereum) is pretty rubbish but other Cryptos like Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (Dot) are building on that. That's the tech aspect
Cryptos are the future and they are here to stay. Are they a risky investment? Yes. Could you lose it all? Yes. But that is pretty much the same for all investments.