Brexit.

[haranguerer]

Interesting they left the first three key words out of their link there

'Tanaiste rubbishes report ireland must face...'

[Insane Bolt]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47213842

Fantastic 😂

[LCohen]

Anything more specific?

I assume your question is related to trade?

It is widely accepted that there is a correlation between core infrastructure (transport/utilities) and productivity. Taken that given, then...


If there were a UI, we would likely see vast improvements in infrastructure in the border areas leading to improved growth in these areas. The improvement of the roads already within the ROI due to EU led investment should be consider as examples. For instance, we would most likely definitely see:
- New main road linking Monaghan to Maguiresbridge.
- Improved main road linking Enniskillen to Donegal town (via Ballyshannon).
- The A5 gets done rather than dithered over.

Then, dealing with the east coast:
- The York road junction gets done rather than dithered over.
- The Dublin-Belfast enterprise service gets new rolling stock that pulls the journey time down to around an hour (its only 100 miles). Even use of the older intercity 125s on a track fit for purpose would see a big drop in journey time - current top speed is limited to 90 mph. The enterprise service as it stands at the moment is an embarrassment. Benign topology and yet the best we can do is an average speed of ~55 mph between the 2 largest cities just 100 miles apart?

We would possibly see:
- extension of the dual carriageway from Ballygawley to Enniskillen. I wouldn't imagine this would dual carriageway over to Ballyshannon.
- improvements of the links to Warrenpoint dock so freight can be moved more quickly onto the motorway/rail network.

I'd also like to think there would be EU monies put toward improving broadband infrastructure in rural areas, which would also lead to improved economic output from our smaller businesses.

You had said that UI would lead to trade and then to GDP growth and then to tax revenue growth and and that would approximately close the deficit. All said without any reference to numbers which struck me as fairly fundamental hence my request for specifics.

I can't really say you have delivered any in the subsequent effort.

This investment in infrastructure - who has costed it or even hinted that they would fund it?

"Most likely definitely" is a belter if a phrase and the first time I've seen it. I do hope that when I see it again in serious economic analysis that the author with credit you appropriately

[LCohen]

What exactly are you asking here?

1. Economic prospects in event of Brexit and Northern Ireland remaining part of the UK

2. Economic prospects in event of Brexit and a United Ireland.

Would welcome both documents but there with or without Brexit there is no UI until serious economic propositions are presented. The onus is those arguing to change the status quo. The counter position would have to be presented then also

[LCohen]

if the worst happens and the UK crash out with no deal it's now inevitable there will be a united Ireland within 10 years

Care to spell out why?

[seafoid]

if the worst happens and the UK crash out with no deal it's now inevitable there will be a united Ireland within 10 years

Care to spell out why?

Tariffs of 70% on meat
Sterling fall by 25%
Squeeze on spending
Guaranteed economic crash because of current account deficit

Basically being in the UK would be worse economically for people in NI than being in RoI

[LCohen]

No deal would be suicidal for the U.K.

If No deal went ahead the economic justification for the existence
of Northern Ireland would disappear

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/07/no-deal-brexit-medieval-siege-eu-britain-industries

Plus the south is more socially progressive regarding reproductive rights !! After decades being behind .# Jaysus

If a time traveler from Crossmaglen in the 50's rolled up they would not believe the changes that have happened. It all started when Down won the All Ireland in 1960.

The Irish govt was dealt a bad hand with the Brexit referendum but they played as a team
and they got a result. It is fantastic to see all the Irish parties both north and south united in support of everyone in the north.

https://youtu.be/O3G1bwD0ao0

Agree that no deal is suicidal for UK

Agree that RoI is more socially progressive than NI (wouldn't be hard)

Totally disagree that Brexit removes the economic justification for the existence of NI. There isn't any economic justification for NI to disappear.

The issue is that today we are an expensive pain the hole for someone who can afford the bill

[LCohen]

if the worst happens and the UK crash out with no deal it's now inevitable there will be a united Ireland within 10 years

Care to spell out why?

Tariffs of 70% on meat
Sterling fall by 25%
Squeeze on spending
Guaranteed economic crash because of current account deficit

Basically being in the UK would be worse economically for people in NI than being in RoI

I get the sh1tshow that Brexit is but where is your analysis of what it will do to the ROI economy?
But that is all secondary

Surely the key to this is that Brexit absolutely rules out any possibility of NI being able to wean itself off the subvention in the timescales being discussed. So that money needs to be raised. There is zero chance of the RoI voter agreeing to step up to the plate and Brexit's impact on the ROI economy hardly does anything to improve that

[RadioGAAGAA]

You had said that UI would lead to trade and then to GDP growth and then to tax revenue growth and and that would approximately close the deficit. All said without any reference to numbers which struck me as fairly fundamental hence my request for specifics.

I can't really say you have delivered any in the subsequent effort.

Sorry, what?

You want me to take the time to research then provide estimated numbers (that you would be happy with - which would no doubt prove impossible) for a forum argument, whenever it is likely the best economists in the world with access to all relevant data would struggle with the task?

Get real.

This investment in infrastructure - who has costed it or even hinted that they would fund it?

I certainly have not costed it. But I'd say its likely someone somewhere has numbers on at least some of it. The A5 would be one part that would be known. There was examination of getting faster stock for the Belfast-Dublin rail link about 5-10 years ago.

Given the money that has been spent on the road, tram and rail links in the ROI over the last 15 years, it isn't much of a leap to expect the work would be undertaken. I doubt the term common sense would appeal to you since it would undermine your argument.

"Most likely definitely" is a belter if a phrase and the first time I've seen it. I do hope that when I see it again in serious economic analysis that the author with credit you appropriately

I doubt any evidence provided on here would meet your criteria (which I'd expect to swiftly move in quite an evasive fashion).

[RadioGAAGAA]

The issue is that today we are an expensive pain the hole for someone who can afford the bill

Your implicitly assuming that the UK can continue to afford the bill.

In a no-deal Brexit, I'd predict the UK govt to default on gilts within 24 months, possibly within 12 months.

In that instance, there would not be any money for this expensive pain in the hole (and I agree on that bit) as the UK can't foot the bill.

[LCohen]

You had said that UI would lead to trade and then to GDP growth and then to tax revenue growth and and that would approximately close the deficit. All said without any reference to numbers which struck me as fairly fundamental hence my request for specifics.

I can't really say you have delivered any in the subsequent effort.

Sorry, what?

You want me to take the time to research then provide estimated numbers (that you would be happy with - which would no doubt prove impossible) for a forum argument, whenever it is likely the best economists in the world with access to all relevant data would struggle with the task?

Get real.

This investment in infrastructure - who has costed it or even hinted that they would fund it?

I certainly have not costed it. But I'd say its likely someone somewhere has numbers on at least some of it. The A5 would be one part that would be known. There was examination of getting faster stock for the Belfast-Dublin rail link about 5-10 years ago.

Given the money that has been spent on the road, tram and rail links in the ROI over the last 15 years, it isn't much of a leap to expect the work would be undertaken. I doubt the term common sense would appeal to you since it would undermine your argument.

"Most likely definitely" is a belter if a phrase and the first time I've seen it. I do hope that when I see it again in serious economic analysis that the author with credit you appropriately

I doubt any evidence provided on here would meet your criteria (which I'd expect to swiftly move in quite an evasive fashion).

I'm not asking you to cost it. But if haven't costed it and can't point to anyone else who had then don't just make the assumption that it will be ticketyboo

[LCohen]

The issue is that today we are an expensive pain the hole for someone who can afford the bill

Your implicitly assuming that the UK can continue to afford the bill.

In a no-deal Brexit, I'd predict the UK govt to default on gilts within 24 months, possibly within 12 months.

In that instance, there would not be any money for this expensive pain in the hole (and I agree on that bit) as the UK can't foot the bill.

I don't assume that UK will always fit the bill. I know that there is government research ongoing to see how NI could be weaned off the subvention but it's a very long term play.

But funding NI out of an economy the size of RoI is a different league to doing so from UK. There are certainly negatives in both economies that would give cause for concern over the coming years

[RadioGAAGAA]

I'm not asking you to cost it. But if haven't costed it and can't point to anyone else who had then don't just make the assumption that it will be ticketyboo

- The A5 is stopped because of court challenges. Its a fair assumption at this point that one or two sums into how much it might cost have been done.
- There was investigations into buying high(er) speed stock for the Dublin-Belfast service. I know they were done. I can only assume that pricing was a part of the work done, hardly unrealistic.
- The York road junction is in court based on challenges to the tender decision. Something that has already been costed.

- I don't know of anything done on the other road links mentioned, but I haven't looked into it. They are not unrealistic, indeed, they are quite logical actions that a government of a UI would look into in the near term future. Can you provide a solid reason why any of the proposed developments would not be undertaken?


[If you are wondering where money would come from - do you really think the EU would not think it in their best interest to invest heavily in uplifting infrastructure here to try and avoid degeneration into violence?]

[RadioGAAGAA]

I don't assume that UK will always fit the bill. I know that there is government research ongoing to see how NI could be weaned off the subvention but it's a very long term play.

But funding NI out of an economy the size of RoI is a different league to doing so from UK. There are certainly negatives in both economies that would give cause for concern over the coming years

If the UK defaults - then the ROI being able to foot 50% of the bill* is better than the UK's 0. Its all relative.

*and that 50% would decrease fast. Who needs thousands of civil servants that sit around doing f**k all... maybe they are busy counting the moon and make some paperwork about how they counted it. The Irish govt would also be more likely to be able to strong arm the educational systems together for savings.

[Harold Disgracey]

From @joelymack on Twitter.

Theresa May
Theresa might
But Theresa won't
Because Theresa's shite
Theresa May
Theresa shan't
And Theresa won't
Because Theresa can't
Theresa May
Theresa tried
But Theresa didn't
Because Theresa lied
Theresa May
Theresa sucked
And Theresa knows
That Theresa's fucked