What is the most likely future of Northern Ireland ?

Started by seafoid, April 28, 2022, 12:43:07 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

smelmoth

Quote from: seafoid on April 29, 2022, 05:30:35 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 29, 2022, 05:14:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on April 29, 2022, 04:46:04 PM
I think NI has a lot of problems but I don't know if they are all insoluble. Sectarianism is probably linked to poor education levels. Low productivity is linked to low investment.
It's curious that you said education standards rather than education structure. You say sectarianism is probably linked to education standards. What evidence have you got to support this? Would the mix of eduction standards in NI be any different that say GB or RoI? Education standards might well a problem in need of a solution but if education standards are no worse than elsewhere I think we can see that it's not an easily soluble problem. Then you add in NI's complicating factors.

I suspect the in built sectarian structures of NI education might be a bigger factor in societal sectarianism. Try removing that and you will meet significant resistance.

On productivity I agree on your description of the problem (ie a lack of investment) but the solution is easier to point to (we need more investment) than it is to deliver (ie attracting that investment - we have had the GFA and American fanfare, we have had EU support programmes and a sustained GB subvention. We also have the protocol and "the best of both worlds". Don't get me wrong, the position is improving. But people are unlikely to believe there is some magic investment tree just waiting to be unlocked. Brexit has taught people to make sure the promises are underwritten before any vote.
Loyalist education is a huge problem. So is the post industrial situation. The British state preferred to put people on social welfare  rather than invest.

NI underperforms.

I agree with all this. But my previous post was challenging how easy these problems would be to solve. Restating the description of the problem is not a solution. Nor is it any sort of comment on the ease of solving these problems

keep her low this half

Quote from: smelmoth on April 29, 2022, 05:45:46 PM
Quote from: seafoid on April 29, 2022, 05:30:35 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 29, 2022, 05:14:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on April 29, 2022, 04:46:04 PM
I think NI has a lot of problems but I don't know if they are all insoluble. Sectarianism is probably linked to poor education levels. Low productivity is linked to low investment.
It's curious that you said education standards rather than education structure. You say sectarianism is probably linked to education standards. What evidence have you got to support this? Would the mix of eduction standards in NI be any different that say GB or RoI? Education standards might well a problem in need of a solution but if education standards are no worse than elsewhere I think we can see that it's not an easily soluble problem. Then you add in NI's complicating factors.

I suspect the in built sectarian structures of NI education might be a bigger factor in societal sectarianism. Try removing that and you will meet significant resistance.

On productivity I agree on your description of the problem (ie a lack of investment) but the solution is easier to point to (we need more investment) than it is to deliver (ie attracting that investment - we have had the GFA and American fanfare, we have had EU support programmes and a sustained GB subvention. We also have the protocol and "the best of both worlds". Don't get me wrong, the position is improving. But people are unlikely to believe there is some magic investment tree just waiting to be unlocked. Brexit has taught people to make sure the promises are underwritten before any vote.
Loyalist education is a huge problem. So is the post industrial situation. The British state preferred to put people on social welfare  rather than invest.

NI underperforms.

I agree with all this. But my previous post was challenging how easy these problems would be to solve. Restating the description of the problem is not a solution. Nor is it any sort of comment on the ease of solving these problems

To improve educational performance
1. Do away with grammar schools.
2. Bring back technical colleges, so many trades struggling for workers.
3. Make schools promote and teach practical skills on a par with exams
4. Expand EWA down from 16 to 14 but tie it into attendance at school. No school = no money.

seafoid

Quote from: smelmoth on April 29, 2022, 05:45:46 PM
Quote from: seafoid on April 29, 2022, 05:30:35 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 29, 2022, 05:14:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on April 29, 2022, 04:46:04 PM
I think NI has a lot of problems but I don't know if they are all insoluble. Sectarianism is probably linked to poor education levels. Low productivity is linked to low investment.
It's curious that you said education standards rather than education structure. You say sectarianism is probably linked to education standards. What evidence have you got to support this? Would the mix of eduction standards in NI be any different that say GB or RoI? Education standards might well a problem in need of a solution but if education standards are no worse than elsewhere I think we can see that it's not an easily soluble problem. Then you add in NI's complicating factors.

I suspect the in built sectarian structures of NI education might be a bigger factor in societal sectarianism. Try removing that and you will meet significant resistance.

On productivity I agree on your description of the problem (ie a lack of investment) but the solution is easier to point to (we need more investment) than it is to deliver (ie attracting that investment - we have had the GFA and American fanfare, we have had EU support programmes and a sustained GB subvention. We also have the protocol and "the best of both worlds". Don't get me wrong, the position is improving. But people are unlikely to believe there is some magic investment tree just waiting to be unlocked. Brexit has taught people to make sure the promises are underwritten before any vote.
Loyalist education is a huge problem. So is the post industrial situation. The British state preferred to put people on social welfare  rather than invest.

NI underperforms.

I agree with all this. But my previous post was challenging how easy these problems would be to solve. Restating the description of the problem is not a solution. Nor is it any sort of comment on the ease of solving these problems
The UK regions have been starved of investment since 1980. Not just NI.   Some kind of mean reversion would make a big difference to NI. Money would go a long way. So would an authority that cared about the place. The post industrial mess has to be a priority. NI bonds could be issued with a decent yield to go with Government input. They could be repaid via increased productivity.
Now much money would NI need ? Does the Protocol qualify for Structural funds ?
The economy has to be weaned off the subvention as well.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

smelmoth

#33
Seafoid you seem to be on the cusp of word salad.

You identify education and sectarianism as issues but seem to be dancing around the elephant in the room here. A religiously segregated education system is sectarianism strongest ally. Failure to tackle this is a failure to tackle sectarianism.

The system we have has other flaws. Flaws which should be addressed but there is no getting away from the core issue.

Included in these problems is standards and relative educational attainment. But these differences exist elsewhere without the consequent sectarianism.

Again I would stress that these problems are not easily fixed. Most would not consider them readily soluble.

We are all in agreement that NI needs investment now and into the future. Talk of other areas lacking in investment doesn't address the NI issue. NI needs investment to succeed. Promises of funding will have to be tested.

In a UI the money would have to come from ROI unless serious flesh can be put on the bones before any vote or if somehow NI could be weaned off the subvention.

I think SF have recognised much of this. But they haven't yet done anything to prepare their electorate north or south for the type of NI we are talking about, the timescale it could be achieved, the potential cost and the accommodation that will have to be extended to unionism to achieve a UI.

To achieve a UI that ROI will vote for NI will have to be significantly less sectarian. It will have to be cheaper. And it will include a NI entity with power sharing and a role for UK. It will have a significant population (maybe up to 1 million) who have an allegiance to Britain and possibly the crown.

All of which is possible. But it's slow and will take massive leadership.

And that is before you even think about getting a UI majority in NI

Olly

I think an M1 that goes to Strabane and I think Lough Neagh will have criuse ships.
Access to this webpage has been denied . This website has been categorised as "Sexual Material".

seafoid

Quote from: smelmoth on April 29, 2022, 10:24:53 PM
Seafoid you seem to be on the cusp of word salad.

You identify education and sectarianism as issues but seem to be dancing around the elephant in the room here. A religiously segregated education system is sectarianism strongest ally. Failure to tackle this is a failure to tackle sectarianism.

The system we have has other flaws. Flaws which should be addressed but there is no getting away from the core issue.

Included in these problems is standards and relative educational attainment. But these differences exist elsewhere without the consequent sectarianism.

Again I would stress that these problems are not easily fixed. Most would not consider them readily soluble.

We are all in agreement that NI needs investment now and into the future. Talk of other areas lacking in investment doesn't address the NI issue. NI needs investment to succeed. Promises of funding will have to be tested.

In a UI the money would have to come from ROI unless serious flesh can be put on the bones before any vote or if somehow NI could be weaned off the subvention.

I think SF have recognised much of this. But they haven't yet done anything to prepare their electorate north or south for the type of NI we are talking about, the timescale it could be achieved, the potential cost and the accommodation that will have to be extended to unionism to achieve a UI.

To achieve a UI that ROI will vote for NI will have to be significantly less sectarian. It will have to be cheaper. And it will include a NI entity with power sharing and a role for UK. It will have a significant population (maybe up to 1 million) who have an allegiance to Britain and possibly the crown.

All of which is possible. But it's slow and will take massive leadership.

And that is before you even think about getting a UI majority in NI
The education system would have to be reformed to become non sectarian.
I think the educational system is a structural weakness.
The Unionist system is breaking down.  The economic metrics for NI  are very weak in the UK context.

This is independent of whether or not peoplev want change
The province has a special status given the potential for intercommunal violence. So money would be available. The question is which model is likely to be most sustainable.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

smelmoth

You are getting there.

The big question for nationalism is how peaceful and functioning does NI have to be to be attractive to a majority of the RoI electorate? And how does nationalism help get NI to that state?

We are now in a position where nationalists have to make the NI state work to realise their constitutional dreams and conversely unionism knows that the more dysfunctional NI is the less attractive it is to the RoI voter. Only then do we realise the political significance of the antagonist, author, footballer, bin enthusiast and Queen's Counsel that is J Bryson.

Winding unionists up and creating a platform for our wee Jamie might rally the republican vote in NI but a volte face will ultimately be required to actually achieve anything constitutional. A prolonged period of influence for Alliance or other unaligned parties might serve SF better in the long term

seafoid

Quote from: smelmoth on April 30, 2022, 11:50:30 AM
You are getting there.

The big question for nationalism is how peaceful and functioning does NI have to be to be attractive to a majority of the RoI electorate? And how does nationalism help get NI to that state?

We are now in a position where nationalists have to make the NI state work to realise their constitutional dreams and conversely unionism knows that the more dysfunctional NI is the less attractive it is to the RoI voter. Only then do we realise the political significance of the antagonist, author, footballer, bin enthusiast and Queen's Counsel that is J Bryson.

Winding unionists up and creating a platform for our wee Jamie might rally the republican vote in NI but a volte face will ultimately be required to actually achieve anything constitutional. A prolonged period of influence for Alliance or other unaligned parties might serve SF better in the long term
A lot of NI political focus is worthless. Sectarianism has no tradeable value. NI needs a majority of rational politicians.

Neither the deindustrialisation nor the war have been properly dealt with. Bringing NI up.to speed would also be attractive to pension funds etc.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

smelmoth

Quote from: seafoid on April 30, 2022, 12:50:40 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 30, 2022, 11:50:30 AM
You are getting there.

The big question for nationalism is how peaceful and functioning does NI have to be to be attractive to a majority of the RoI electorate? And how does nationalism help get NI to that state?

We are now in a position where nationalists have to make the NI state work to realise their constitutional dreams and conversely unionism knows that the more dysfunctional NI is the less attractive it is to the RoI voter. Only then do we realise the political significance of the antagonist, author, footballer, bin enthusiast and Queen's Counsel that is J Bryson.

Winding unionists up and creating a platform for our wee Jamie might rally the republican vote in NI but a volte face will ultimately be required to actually achieve anything constitutional. A prolonged period of influence for Alliance or other unaligned parties might serve SF better in the long term
A lot of NI political focus is worthless. Sectarianism has no tradeable value. NI needs a majority of rational politicians.

Neither the deindustrialisation nor the war have been properly dealt with. Bringing NI up.to speed would also be attractive to pension funds etc.


Salad









Spectacular











Word

Snapchap

Quote from: Rossfan on April 28, 2022, 03:22:12 PM
Probably
Probably
No
Unlikely
No, nay, never.
What party/parties are competent in your view?

seafoid

Quote from: smelmoth on April 29, 2022, 10:24:53 PM
Seafoid you seem to be on the cusp of word salad.

You identify education and sectarianism as issues but seem to be dancing around the elephant in the room here. A religiously segregated education system is sectarianism strongest ally. Failure to tackle this is a failure to tackle sectarianism.

The system we have has other flaws. Flaws which should be addressed but there is no getting away from the core issue.

Included in these problems is standards and relative educational attainment. But these differences exist elsewhere without the consequent sectarianism.

Again I would stress that these problems are not easily fixed. Most would not consider them readily soluble.

We are all in agreement that NI needs investment now and into the future. Talk of other areas lacking in investment doesn't address the NI issue. NI needs investment to succeed. Promises of funding will have to be tested.

In a UI the money would have to come from ROI unless serious flesh can be put on the bones before any vote or if somehow NI could be weaned off the subvention.

I think SF have recognised much of this. But they haven't yet done anything to prepare their electorate north or south for the type of NI we are talking about, the timescale it could be achieved, the potential cost and the accommodation that will have to be extended to unionism to achieve a UI.

To achieve a UI that ROI will vote for NI will have to be significantly less sectarian. It will have to be cheaper. And it will include a NI entity with power sharing and a role for UK. It will have a significant population (maybe up to 1 million) who have an allegiance to Britain and possibly the crown.

All of which is possible. But it's slow and will take massive leadership.

And that is before you even think about getting a UI majority in NI
Sectarianism and the Union plus the after effects of the war are the big ones I think. Being part of the UK in the last 40 years was not to NI's advantage .
A misfiring NI will be of no interest to the South. NI would have to be self propelling which would mean cutting out most of the waste that exists today. It's a bit like East Germany in 1990.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

smelmoth

#41
A misfiring NI is indeed a big problem for nationalism. Sectarianism and economic fragility are massive issues for nationalism. They are massive issues for everyone who cares about this place but they are are of particular relevance to the goals of nationalism. To be regarded as a successful or progressive nationalist is to do something about these issues. Otherwise nationalism is just a flag to dance around.

Saying that NI needs money just restates the problem. It does not provide a solution nor indicate how close we are to a solution.

Hinting at the availability of funds from Uncle Sam, the EU or slightly strangely Pension Funds is just words on a page. When will there be some detail on what these bodies will provide? For how long? On what terms?

We have already had the breakthrough of GFA and the peace process. Internationally the big prize to be associated with is peace, not constitutional change. We have already had the big breakthrough, shook the international money tree and collected the bounty. It all helped but it wasn't society changing. It's very much unclear, what if anything is available for a UI. We are certainly not in a position to just assume that funds, and all the funds that will be required, will just flow. We also have a threat that constitutional change is associated with violence (in the run up or immediately after) in which case international benefactors don't get their reflected glory.

A big first step for nationalism would be to weigh in full square behind integrated education. I genuinely don't believe there is any chance of achieving a UI without coming through a generation of integrated education as the norm rather than as an exception.

This will be a long journey as nationalism hasn't even began thinking about the first step.

johnnycool

Much being made of the sectarian nature of the Education structures in the north and whilst there's a slither of truth in that the biggest issues is how poorly the economically disadvantaged families fare in the current structures either side of the sectarian divide.

Entrance exams being the obvious example where the middle and upper class are tutoring away at their wee darlings and able to afford the various fees some colleges levy, and the "old boys" network that evolves from these schools.

Culturally there's also the lack of social mobility within these same groups, kids reared on benefits are more likely to see this as the norm with no way out of it and that needs tackled head on to break that cycle.


seafoid

Quote from: smelmoth on May 02, 2022, 09:39:06 AM
A misfiring NI is indeed a big problem for nationalism. Sectarianism and economic fragility are massive issues for nationalism. They are massive issues for everyone who cares about this place but they are are of particular relevance to the goals of nationalism. To be regarded as a successful or progressive nationalist is to do something about these issues. Otherwise nationalism is just a flag to dance around.

Saying that NI needs money just restates the problem. It does not provide a solution nor indicate how close we are to a solution.

Hinting at the availability of funds from Uncle Sam, the EU or slightly strangely Pension Funds is just words on a page. When will there be some detail on what these bodies will provide? For how long? On what terms?

We have already had the breakthrough of GFA and the peace process. Internationally the big prize to be associated with is peace, not constitutional change. We have already had the big breakthrough, shook the international money tree and collected the bounty. It all helped but it wasn't society changing. It's very much unclear, what if anything is available for a UI. We are certainly not in a position to just assume that funds, and all the funds that will be required, will just flow. We also have a threat that constitutional change is associated with violence (in the run up or immediately after) in which case international benefactors don't get their reflected glory.

A big first step for nationalism would be to weigh in full square behind integrated education. I genuinely don't believe there is any chance of achieving a UI without coming through a generation of integrated education as the norm rather than as an exception.

This will be a long journey as nationalism hasn't even began thinking about the first step.
There are funds all over the world looking for a decent return . Why is NI lagging behind Scotland and the RoI? is it because of the history? Is there anything that can be fixed? Is there any reason the people can't be more productive before integrated education kicks in?
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

smelmoth

Quote from: johnnycool on May 02, 2022, 11:38:54 AM
Much being made of the sectarian nature of the Education structures in the north and whilst there's a slither of truth in that the biggest issues is how poorly the economically disadvantaged families fare in the current structures either side of the sectarian divide.

Entrance exams being the obvious example where the middle and upper class are tutoring away at their wee darlings and able to afford the various fees some colleges levy, and the "old boys" network that evolves from these schools.

Culturally there's also the lack of social mobility within these same groups, kids reared on benefits are more likely to see this as the norm with no way out of it and that needs tackled head on to break that cycle.

A slither?

Is the education system any better or worse that day GB or RoI in terms of attainment?

Attainment is obviously a key issue for education and has impacts on social mobility. Big issues here. Big issues everywhere. But we have a very specific problem of sectarianism within society. There is more than a slither of truth to the fact that religiously segregated eduction props up sectarianism.

My school education was entirely on a segregated basis. I witnessed behaviours by students and teachers that I instantly could see where sectarian and could only have been exhibited and replicated in that "safe space" of an exclusively taig environment. I saw many more behaviours than I probably only came to realise later where of a similar nature. Add to that the channelling of school friendships down sectarian lines and the ability to walk the streets after school instantly differentiate hun from taig based on school uniform . None of these things help society whether they are getting better or worse academic grades.

Social mobility problems need sorted but they are not the problems that sets NI apart when you want to take it on