Is FF gone as a party?

Started by macker15, April 10, 2021, 10:59:54 PM

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dublin7

#60
Quote from: Lar Naparka on April 12, 2021, 12:55:10 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 12, 2021, 12:06:17 PM
Firstly I haven't read all of this thread but a few very general points as a nosey nordie.

FF come across rightly or wrongly as a fly boy party. Their TDs must be 90% male. A lot of their Politicians appear to want to be Politicians for the trappings and standing that goes with it without actually wanting to do any work. That doesn't work nowadays and it is one of the key reasons that their voter base is going to SF. SF know how to be active and be seen in the community.

They seem to be lacking real talent.
Donnelly, Foley and Darragh O'Brien just don't seem up to it. Stephen Donnelly is a car crash every time he opens his mouth.

The youth in Ireland would appear to see Housing as one of the key issues in the South, yet this government stopped construction? If they are serious, like really serious about effecting real change to young peoples lives then surely this is an area they make and exception for? That just something simple that demonstrates you're on the side of the people.

SF will win a landslide next time out and who could blame people for voting for them? FF and FG have been terrible at managing certain aspects of the State. Especially housing.

FF are in real bother. If SF can drop the "Up the RA" angle and become a bit more palatable then 55 - 65 seats, maybe even more, is highly likely.
+1
That's a truly excellent post. I'd only quibble with your assessment of SF's prospects at the next GE.
I'm not going by my personal views here, btw, I'm looking at the polls.
SF were taken completely by surprise with the returns of the last GE. As someone else pointed out, one of their successful candidates was on holidays on the day of the election. He, and most of the country, hadn't seen this coming. The hard fact is that  SF did extremely well by default- not on the merits of their policies.
At best, the consensus was that they'd tail in behind FF, FG in that order and a bit of a gap behind the big two.
That is going by polls and the views of political correspondents.
The Bobby Storey episode seems to have done them serious damage- this may only be short term btw. They had been trying to impress on the electorate that they had become a fully constitutional party that had severed its connections with its paramilitary roots. Then along came Bobby Storey and the party reverted to type. Again this isn't just my opinion, the polls reflected this.
How successful will they be at the next CE?
Again, it's hard to predict as we have no way of knowing what's going to happen between the present and the election. However, the party is running neck and neck with FG in current polls and have been so for sometime. (Both are around 32%.)
If that holds true going into the next GE, you would have to fancy FG finishing well ahead.
Why? Because of our Single Transferable Vote system.
SF isn't transfer friendly - a lot of their votes are "plumpers," People who plump for SF are not inclined to give their lower preference votes to any other candidates - and the same is true in reverse.  Unless SF gets a very high % of first and second preferences, they won't pick up enough third and lower preferences to stay in the race. The odds are that if a candidate is elected without reaching the quota, it won't be a SF candidate.
Another big issue is that FG and FF have well established party electoral systems in every constituency in the land. SF is still building a party structure in all electoral areas. It will be a case of waiting and seeing but going by the results of the last GE, I wouldn't bet the family silver on SF being the biggest party in the republic next time out.

That's well put Lar. Also SF only ran one candidate in each constituency were as FF/FG ran at least 2 so this is one of the main reasons why so many of the SF candidates who were elected did so by topping the poll. Even Mary Lou wasn't confident enough to run a 2nd SF candidate in her own constituency. If they run more candidates they'll split their vote and as Lar pointed out previously thy're not transfer friendly so it will be tough to get 2 candidates elected in alot of constituencies

Rossfan

#61
In 2020 GE SF got 2 quotas or more in
Dublin SC, Cavan/Monaghan*, Louth*, Donegal*, Waterford and Dublin MW*.
They got over 1.5 Quotas in
Dublin SW, Dublin Bay North, Dublin Central, Dublin Fingal and Dublin NW. Wexford and Wicklow.
So if their new vote holds and wasn't a fly by night ala Labour 1992 and 2011 there's a possible 9 extra seats for them next time.
Unless there's another big swing to them hard to see them gaining many more seats after that.

* got 2 seats in those.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

seafoid

Quote from: Rossfan on April 12, 2021, 03:36:11 PM
In 2020 GE SF got 2 quotas or more in
Dublin SC, Cavan/Monaghan*, Louth*, Donegal*, Waterford and Dublin MW*.
They got over 1.5 Quotas in
Dublin SW, Dublin Bay North, Dublin Central, Dublin Fingal and Dublin NW. Wexford and Wicklow.
So if their new vote holds and wasn't a fly by night ala Labour 1992 and 2011 there's a possible 9 extra seats for them next time.
Unless there's another big swing to them hard to see them gaining many more seats after that.

* got 2 seats in those.
They need a wider geograpical spread than the border and BAC
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Main Street

Quote from: dublin7 on April 12, 2021, 03:22:23 PM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on April 12, 2021, 12:55:10 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 12, 2021, 12:06:17 PM
Firstly I haven't read all of this thread but a few very general points as a nosey nordie.

FF come across rightly or wrongly as a fly boy party. Their TDs must be 90% male. A lot of their Politicians appear to want to be Politicians for the trappings and standing that goes with it without actually wanting to do any work. That doesn't work nowadays and it is one of the key reasons that their voter base is going to SF. SF know how to be active and be seen in the community.

They seem to be lacking real talent.
Donnelly, Foley and Darragh O'Brien just don't seem up to it. Stephen Donnelly is a car crash every time he opens his mouth.

The youth in Ireland would appear to see Housing as one of the key issues in the South, yet this government stopped construction? If they are serious, like really serious about effecting real change to young peoples lives then surely this is an area they make and exception for? That just something simple that demonstrates you're on the side of the people.

SF will win a landslide next time out and who could blame people for voting for them? FF and FG have been terrible at managing certain aspects of the State. Especially housing.

FF are in real bother. If SF can drop the "Up the RA" angle and become a bit more palatable then 55 - 65 seats, maybe even more, is highly likely.
+1
That's a truly excellent post. I'd only quibble with your assessment of SF's prospects at the next GE.
I'm not going by my personal views here, btw, I'm looking at the polls.
SF were taken completely by surprise with the returns of the last GE. As someone else pointed out, one of their successful candidates was on holidays on the day of the election. He, and most of the country, hadn't seen this coming. The hard fact is that  SF did extremely well by default- not on the merits of their policies.
At best, the consensus was that they'd tail in behind FF, FG in that order and a bit of a gap behind the big two.
That is going by polls and the views of political correspondents.
The Bobby Storey episode seems to have done them serious damage- this may only be short term btw. They had been trying to impress on the electorate that they had become a fully constitutional party that had severed its connections with its paramilitary roots. Then along came Bobby Storey and the party reverted to type. Again this isn't just my opinion, the polls reflected this.
How successful will they be at the next CE?
Again, it's hard to predict as we have no way of knowing what's going to happen between the present and the election. However, the party is running neck and neck with FG in current polls and have been so for sometime. (Both are around 32%.)
If that holds true going into the next GE, you would have to fancy FG finishing well ahead.
Why? Because of our Single Transferable Vote system.
SF isn't transfer friendly - a lot of their votes are "plumpers," People who plump for SF are not inclined to give their lower preference votes to any other candidates - and the same is true in reverse.  Unless SF gets a very high % of first and second preferences, they won't pick up enough third and lower preferences to stay in the race. The odds are that if a candidate is elected without reaching the quota, it won't be a SF candidate.
Another big issue is that FG and FF have well established party electoral systems in every constituency in the land. SF is still building a party structure in all electoral areas. It will be a case of waiting and seeing but going by the results of the last GE, I wouldn't bet the family silver on SF being the biggest party in the republic next time out.

That's well put Lar. Also SF only ran one candidate in each constituency were as FF/FG ran at least 2 so this is one of the main reasons why so many of the SF candidates who were elected did so by topping the poll. Even Mary Lou wasn't confident enough to run a 2nd SF candidate in her own constituency. If they run more candidates they'll split their vote and as Lar pointed out previously thy're not transfer friendly so it will be tough to get 2 candidates elected in alot of constituencies
Should SF run two candidates in a constituency, I'd expect the total SF vote to increase. Should one candidate be eliminated, I'd expect the bulk of the SF candidate's transfers would go to the other SF candidate.

Itchy

Quote from: Main Street on April 12, 2021, 11:17:43 PM
Quote from: dublin7 on April 12, 2021, 03:22:23 PM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on April 12, 2021, 12:55:10 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 12, 2021, 12:06:17 PM
Firstly I haven't read all of this thread but a few very general points as a nosey nordie.

FF come across rightly or wrongly as a fly boy party. Their TDs must be 90% male. A lot of their Politicians appear to want to be Politicians for the trappings and standing that goes with it without actually wanting to do any work. That doesn't work nowadays and it is one of the key reasons that their voter base is going to SF. SF know how to be active and be seen in the community.

They seem to be lacking real talent.
Donnelly, Foley and Darragh O'Brien just don't seem up to it. Stephen Donnelly is a car crash every time he opens his mouth.

The youth in Ireland would appear to see Housing as one of the key issues in the South, yet this government stopped construction? If they are serious, like really serious about effecting real change to young peoples lives then surely this is an area they make and exception for? That just something simple that demonstrates you're on the side of the people.

SF will win a landslide next time out and who could blame people for voting for them? FF and FG have been terrible at managing certain aspects of the State. Especially housing.

FF are in real bother. If SF can drop the "Up the RA" angle and become a bit more palatable then 55 - 65 seats, maybe even more, is highly likely.
+1
That's a truly excellent post. I'd only quibble with your assessment of SF's prospects at the next GE.
I'm not going by my personal views here, btw, I'm looking at the polls.
SF were taken completely by surprise with the returns of the last GE. As someone else pointed out, one of their successful candidates was on holidays on the day of the election. He, and most of the country, hadn't seen this coming. The hard fact is that  SF did extremely well by default- not on the merits of their policies.
At best, the consensus was that they'd tail in behind FF, FG in that order and a bit of a gap behind the big two.
That is going by polls and the views of political correspondents.
The Bobby Storey episode seems to have done them serious damage- this may only be short term btw. They had been trying to impress on the electorate that they had become a fully constitutional party that had severed its connections with its paramilitary roots. Then along came Bobby Storey and the party reverted to type. Again this isn't just my opinion, the polls reflected this.
How successful will they be at the next CE?
Again, it's hard to predict as we have no way of knowing what's going to happen between the present and the election. However, the party is running neck and neck with FG in current polls and have been so for sometime. (Both are around 32%.)
If that holds true going into the next GE, you would have to fancy FG finishing well ahead.
Why? Because of our Single Transferable Vote system.
SF isn't transfer friendly - a lot of their votes are "plumpers," People who plump for SF are not inclined to give their lower preference votes to any other candidates - and the same is true in reverse.  Unless SF gets a very high % of first and second preferences, they won't pick up enough third and lower preferences to stay in the race. The odds are that if a candidate is elected without reaching the quota, it won't be a SF candidate.
Another big issue is that FG and FF have well established party electoral systems in every constituency in the land. SF is still building a party structure in all electoral areas. It will be a case of waiting and seeing but going by the results of the last GE, I wouldn't bet the family silver on SF being the biggest party in the republic next time out.

That's well put Lar. Also SF only ran one candidate in each constituency were as FF/FG ran at least 2 so this is one of the main reasons why so many of the SF candidates who were elected did so by topping the poll. Even Mary Lou wasn't confident enough to run a 2nd SF candidate in her own constituency. If they run more candidates they'll split their vote and as Lar pointed out previously thy're not transfer friendly so it will be tough to get 2 candidates elected in alot of constituencies
Should SF run two candidates in a constituency, I'd expect the total SF vote to increase. Should one candidate be eliminated, I'd expect the bulk of the SF candidate's transfers would go to the other SF candidate.

When I read all these long posts I cant help but think that they are all based on the assumption that the rules of the game are the same as before. They are not - social media for one is massive now. Another, traditional media which to date has been aggressively biased against SF will soon realise that they are actually committing suicide doing this. What happens to FFG when Claire Byrne and Miriam O Callaghan start being fair and neutral in their interviews???

tiempo

Quote from: Itchy on April 13, 2021, 08:58:05 AMWhen I read all these long posts I cant help but think that they are all based on the assumption that the rules of the game are the same as before. They are not - social media for one is massive now. Another, traditional media which to date has been aggressively biased against SF will soon realise that they are actually committing suicide doing this. What happens to FFG when Claire Byrne and Miriam O Callaghan start being fair and neutral in their interviews???

There's something you don't have to worry about, the establishment have these people in their back pocket, their A game is the smear campaign and even then its piss poor to average at best

As you say social media is a huge game changer in this day and age and I feel SF have an edge here

O'Callaghan in her haste to sideline fairness and objectivity will do more good for SF than harm, but it is sickening to watch at times, same as that gimp Tubridy

Lar Naparka

Quote from: Main Street on April 12, 2021, 11:17:43 PM
Quote from: dublin7 on April 12, 2021, 03:22:23 PM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on April 12, 2021, 12:55:10 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 12, 2021, 12:06:17 PM
Firstly I haven't read all of this thread but a few very general points as a nosey nordie.

FF come across rightly or wrongly as a fly boy party. Their TDs must be 90% male. A lot of their Politicians appear to want to be Politicians for the trappings and standing that goes with it without actually wanting to do any work. That doesn't work nowadays and it is one of the key reasons that their voter base is going to SF. SF know how to be active and be seen in the community.

They seem to be lacking real talent.
Donnelly, Foley and Darragh O'Brien just don't seem up to it. Stephen Donnelly is a car crash every time he opens his mouth.

The youth in Ireland would appear to see Housing as one of the key issues in the South, yet this government stopped construction? If they are serious, like really serious about effecting real change to young peoples lives then surely this is an area they make and exception for? That just something simple that demonstrates you're on the side of the people.

SF will win a landslide next time out and who could blame people for voting for them? FF and FG have been terrible at managing certain aspects of the State. Especially housing.

FF are in real bother. If SF can drop the "Up the RA" angle and become a bit more palatable then 55 - 65 seats, maybe even more, is highly likely.
+1
That's a truly excellent post. I'd only quibble with your assessment of SF's prospects at the next GE.
I'm not going by my personal views here, btw, I'm looking at the polls.
SF were taken completely by surprise with the returns of the last GE. As someone else pointed out, one of their successful candidates was on holidays on the day of the election. He, and most of the country, hadn't seen this coming. The hard fact is that  SF did extremely well by default- not on the merits of their policies.
At best, the consensus was that they'd tail in behind FF, FG in that order and a bit of a gap behind the big two.
That is going by polls and the views of political correspondents.
The Bobby Storey episode seems to have done them serious damage- this may only be short term btw. They had been trying to impress on the electorate that they had become a fully constitutional party that had severed its connections with its paramilitary roots. Then along came Bobby Storey and the party reverted to type. Again this isn't just my opinion, the polls reflected this.
How successful will they be at the next CE?
Again, it's hard to predict as we have no way of knowing what's going to happen between the present and the election. However, the party is running neck and neck with FG in current polls and have been so for sometime. (Both are around 32%.)
If that holds true going into the next GE, you would have to fancy FG finishing well ahead.
Why? Because of our Single Transferable Vote system.
SF isn't transfer friendly - a lot of their votes are "plumpers," People who plump for SF are not inclined to give their lower preference votes to any other candidates - and the same is true in reverse.  Unless SF gets a very high % of first and second preferences, they won't pick up enough third and lower preferences to stay in the race. The odds are that if a candidate is elected without reaching the quota, it won't be a SF candidate.
Another big issue is that FG and FF have well established party electoral systems in every constituency in the land. SF is still building a party structure in all electoral areas. It will be a case of waiting and seeing but going by the results of the last GE, I wouldn't bet the family silver on SF being the biggest party in the republic next time out.

That's well put Lar. Also SF only ran one candidate in each constituency were as FF/FG ran at least 2 so this is one of the main reasons why so many of the SF candidates who were elected did so by topping the poll. Even Mary Lou wasn't confident enough to run a 2nd SF candidate in her own constituency. If they run more candidates they'll split their vote and as Lar pointed out previously thy're not transfer friendly so it will be tough to get 2 candidates elected in alot of constituencies
Should SF run two candidates in a constituency, I'd expect the total SF vote to increase. Should one candidate be eliminated, I'd expect the bulk of the SF candidate's transfers would go to the other SF candidate.
I'd imagine that there are no hard and fast rules here. You can only go by the experience of other parties who have run multiple candidates in constituencies around the country in times past.  It's important to bear in mind that a General Election really means holding 42 (?) mini elections, where the central issues in one  may not be relevant in others eg  upgrading or downgrading local hospitals etc.
Generally, where a party is hoping for two seats, it may think it advisable to field three candidates. In  that case, what you are asking makes sense. One is only there for his/her transfers to the other two. They may need the expected second and third preferences. But in fielding only two candidates for two seats , the permutations and combinations can be unpredictable.
Maybe candidate A and candidate B receive roughly the same vote but both are short of the quota then the danger arises that one will be eliminated.  Bertie Ahern could take three out of five seats in a five seater and did this for several elections running.
Bertie canvassed for votes all over the constituency while the other two were confined to their local area. The other two got relatively small first prefs but Bertie surplus was enough to get both elected.
At his last election, Bertie was in a three seater and had just one running mate, Royston Brady. Brady got well short of 1,000 first prefs but still got elected because of Bertie's surplus.
In other words, where running multiple candidates is involved, astute vote management is needed.
SF won't be as used to this as FG and FF but, on the other hand, they are actively preparing for the next GE and will have their candidates  lined up and have their areas to chase number ones laid out in advance.
Keep in mind that twice the candidates doesn't always mean twice the votes but Mary Lou has the tide with her and has the time to plot her strategies.
The next election will be a very interesting one..
Nil Carborundum Illegitemi

Itchy

Quote from: tiempo on April 13, 2021, 09:42:12 AM
Quote from: Itchy on April 13, 2021, 08:58:05 AMWhen I read all these long posts I cant help but think that they are all based on the assumption that the rules of the game are the same as before. They are not - social media for one is massive now. Another, traditional media which to date has been aggressively biased against SF will soon realise that they are actually committing suicide doing this. What happens to FFG when Claire Byrne and Miriam O Callaghan start being fair and neutral in their interviews???

There's something you don't have to worry about, the establishment have these people in their back pocket, their A game is the smear campaign and even then its piss poor to average at best

As you say social media is a huge game changer in this day and age and I feel SF have an edge here

O'Callaghan in her haste to sideline fairness and objectivity will do more good for SF than harm, but it is sickening to watch at times, same as that gimp Tubridy

Well it certainly hasnt had the effect they were looking for and instead has damaged these institutions. But when will it dawn on them that the next minister they go with a begging bowl to may be a SF minister?

Armagh18

Quote from: Itchy on April 13, 2021, 10:53:08 AM
Quote from: tiempo on April 13, 2021, 09:42:12 AM
Quote from: Itchy on April 13, 2021, 08:58:05 AMWhen I read all these long posts I cant help but think that they are all based on the assumption that the rules of the game are the same as before. They are not - social media for one is massive now. Another, traditional media which to date has been aggressively biased against SF will soon realise that they are actually committing suicide doing this. What happens to FFG when Claire Byrne and Miriam O Callaghan start being fair and neutral in their interviews???

There's something you don't have to worry about, the establishment have these people in their back pocket, their A game is the smear campaign and even then its piss poor to average at best

As you say social media is a huge game changer in this day and age and I feel SF have an edge here

O'Callaghan in her haste to sideline fairness and objectivity will do more good for SF than harm, but it is sickening to watch at times, same as that gimp Tubridy

Well it certainly hasnt had the effect they were looking for and instead has damaged these institutions. But when will it dawn on them that the next minister they go with a begging bowl to may be a SF minister?
That will be brilliant

tiempo

Quote from: Itchy on April 13, 2021, 10:53:08 AM
Quote from: tiempo on April 13, 2021, 09:42:12 AM
Quote from: Itchy on April 13, 2021, 08:58:05 AMWhen I read all these long posts I cant help but think that they are all based on the assumption that the rules of the game are the same as before. They are not - social media for one is massive now. Another, traditional media which to date has been aggressively biased against SF will soon realise that they are actually committing suicide doing this. What happens to FFG when Claire Byrne and Miriam O Callaghan start being fair and neutral in their interviews???

There's something you don't have to worry about, the establishment have these people in their back pocket, their A game is the smear campaign and even then its piss poor to average at best

As you say social media is a huge game changer in this day and age and I feel SF have an edge here

O'Callaghan in her haste to sideline fairness and objectivity will do more good for SF than harm, but it is sickening to watch at times, same as that gimp Tubridy

Well it certainly hasnt had the effect they were looking for and instead has damaged these institutions. But when will it dawn on them that the next minister they go with a begging bowl to may be a SF minister?

The establishment MO'C etc are part of will never accept SF, they'll fight them tooth and nail to the next election and if SF do enter government they'll traduce them at any opportunity, taking their own credibility with them as a result

If SF get in hopefully they can begin to dismantle the cabal that exists within the establishment protecting FFG, not that there isn't a mountain of other more important work to be done, but they'll just have to multi task

Rossfan

#70
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

trailer

Quote from: tiempo on April 13, 2021, 11:21:52 AM
Quote from: Itchy on April 13, 2021, 10:53:08 AM
Quote from: tiempo on April 13, 2021, 09:42:12 AM
Quote from: Itchy on April 13, 2021, 08:58:05 AMWhen I read all these long posts I cant help but think that they are all based on the assumption that the rules of the game are the same as before. They are not - social media for one is massive now. Another, traditional media which to date has been aggressively biased against SF will soon realise that they are actually committing suicide doing this. What happens to FFG when Claire Byrne and Miriam O Callaghan start being fair and neutral in their interviews???

There's something you don't have to worry about, the establishment have these people in their back pocket, their A game is the smear campaign and even then its piss poor to average at best

As you say social media is a huge game changer in this day and age and I feel SF have an edge here

O'Callaghan in her haste to sideline fairness and objectivity will do more good for SF than harm, but it is sickening to watch at times, same as that gimp Tubridy

Well it certainly hasnt had the effect they were looking for and instead has damaged these institutions. But when will it dawn on them that the next minister they go with a begging bowl to may be a SF minister?

The establishment MO'C etc are part of will never accept SF, they'll fight them tooth and nail to the next election and if SF do enter government they'll traduce them at any opportunity, taking their own credibility with them as a result

If SF get in hopefully they can begin to dismantle the cabal that exists within the establishment protecting FFG, not that there isn't a mountain of other more important work to be done, but they'll just have to multi task

This is classic SF voter diatribe. The establishment is working against us. We're outsiders shaking things up. Drain the Swamp. The Cabal. What a load of shite. What about in the 6 counties were SF ARE THE ESTABLISHMENT and have been for the last 10 years. Give me a f**king break.

Everyone pull up a chair, wait till you see the shite posted in response... here we go....

Itchy

Quote from: Rossfan on April 13, 2021, 11:28:08 AM
I wonder is this why Itchy was demanding I tell him who I voted for? ;D

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-under-pressure-to-reveal-location-of-its-secret-voter-database-40306631.html

I didnt demand anything. You are just too ball-less to say incase we laugh at you voting for a corrupt ex FG minister or a man who got elected to allow a few bog men in Roscommon to cut turf.

BTW - you could stick up two new articles every day from the Indo criticising SF, last week it was some nonsense about their twitter admin living abroad which this week is an important article on plans to make it illegal to have your parties twitter posts from abroad.

Snapchap

Quote from: Rossfan on April 13, 2021, 11:28:08 AM
I wonder is this why Itchy was demanding I tell him who I voted for? ;D

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-under-pressure-to-reveal-location-of-its-secret-voter-database-40306631.html

So sssentially, FFG are outraged that SF have an electronic database of voters? I enjoyed the bit in the article which notes that all parties get an electronic copy of eh....the electoral register of voters.

It's like the Indo have reached peak desperation.

seafoid

SF means ourselves alone.
FF and FG are globalists.

What sort of economic policy would SF run?
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU