Cryptocurrency

Started by gallsman, September 01, 2017, 02:36:49 PM

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smelmoth

Quote from: trailer on April 15, 2021, 08:41:35 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 14, 2021, 02:18:24 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 14, 2021, 11:15:07 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 14, 2021, 10:35:28 AM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on April 14, 2021, 09:50:32 AM
Let me be clear, I was talking solely about Bitcoin, not all the other Cryptocurrencies or Alt Coins as they are an entirely different conversation.

Smelmoth, what revenues does gold create?
None, but it still doesn't stop a gold bullion being worth whatever it is worth.
What revenues do jewellry or fancy art generate? But they still hold their value.

Think of Bitcoin the same. An asset just has to be accepted as a Store of Value and then that is what it becomes.  My view (and if you don't hold the same view then that's fine) is that Bitcoin is on the path to being accepted as a bona fide Store of Value; just like a painting or a bit of gold. #

I say this is it is apparent that more corporations are getting involved now as a legitimate part of their treasury holdings (again, I'm just talking about Bitcoin here, no other crypto assets) and the supply is fixed. 

It's some diversification for me as I still have much more in the traditional investments (pensions and stocks and shares ISAs) that I do in Bitcoin. For sure I wouldn't go all in on Bitcoin, just the same way as I wouldn't on any particular individual asset.

Until now I have only heard of cryptocurrencies being proposed as alternative to cash, gilts, stocks, currency or investments that combine some or all of those. Hence my focus on them.

You are now bringing in gold, art and jewellery.

Jewellery's inherent value is in precious metals and to a degree workmanship and the history (who owned/ wore some items before). Gold is related to this because of what it can be turned into. Other things are as rare as precious metals but people just don't like looking at them as much. And don't think people will enjoy looking at them in the future. They could however be wrong and some things will become less fashionable and be worth less in the future. Not aware of anyone who likes looking at Bitcoin.

Paint on canvas or a block of marble have little inherent value. What is done with them technically and aesthetically can add value. If it is any good that is.

There is behaviour around the edges where a self destroying physical artwork sells for big money. But that is Bill Drummond style performance art and is confined to very few individuals.

Bitcoin offers none of these. It works on the principle that rare (or restricted supply) is automatically valuable. It has nothing to back that up.

But if I was a big investor with deep pockets I could easily make a lot of noise about putting $10bn into Bitcoin and cashing in on the drip straight away as the price rises on foot of my announcement.

Tulips from Amsterdam

Don't look up NFTs whatever you do.

You don't allow for the technical aspect of crypto which adds value.

But what is value? We only value something because of how we feel about it. That the big question. If people didn't value gold it would be like any other rock on the ground.

Okay hit me with it. I have already factored in the use of technology to restrict the supply of something but beyond that what is the value (to the holder) in the technology?

Bitcoin is a store of value, same as anything else. It's pretty much been proven at this stage. 1 coin is worth over $60k. It's market cap will exceed Gold at some point. It's done.
Other Cryptocurrencies are solving real world problems. Smart contracts will be the future. Lots of things do and will use them. Ether (Ethereum) is pretty rubbish but other Cryptos like Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (Dot) are building on that. That's the tech aspect
Cryptos are the future and they are here to stay. Are they a risky investment? Yes. Could you lose it all? Yes. But that is pretty much the same for all investments.

None of that explains how the technology adds value.

I am not saying cryptocurrencies won't hang around. I am not challenging the medium of exchange role (see above) and nor am I saying that investments cannot go down in value (see above) but nobody here has yet explained the underlying basis of the value of a cryptocurrency. Offline the best I have heard is that its marketing. If I can convince you its worth X then its worth X. I need not explain the serious dangers in such a model

trailer

Quote from: smelmoth on April 15, 2021, 08:48:01 AM
Quote from: trailer on April 15, 2021, 08:41:35 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 14, 2021, 02:18:24 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 14, 2021, 11:15:07 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 14, 2021, 10:35:28 AM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on April 14, 2021, 09:50:32 AM
Let me be clear, I was talking solely about Bitcoin, not all the other Cryptocurrencies or Alt Coins as they are an entirely different conversation.

Smelmoth, what revenues does gold create?
None, but it still doesn't stop a gold bullion being worth whatever it is worth.
What revenues do jewellry or fancy art generate? But they still hold their value.

Think of Bitcoin the same. An asset just has to be accepted as a Store of Value and then that is what it becomes.  My view (and if you don't hold the same view then that's fine) is that Bitcoin is on the path to being accepted as a bona fide Store of Value; just like a painting or a bit of gold. #

I say this is it is apparent that more corporations are getting involved now as a legitimate part of their treasury holdings (again, I'm just talking about Bitcoin here, no other crypto assets) and the supply is fixed. 

It's some diversification for me as I still have much more in the traditional investments (pensions and stocks and shares ISAs) that I do in Bitcoin. For sure I wouldn't go all in on Bitcoin, just the same way as I wouldn't on any particular individual asset.

Until now I have only heard of cryptocurrencies being proposed as alternative to cash, gilts, stocks, currency or investments that combine some or all of those. Hence my focus on them.

You are now bringing in gold, art and jewellery.

Jewellery's inherent value is in precious metals and to a degree workmanship and the history (who owned/ wore some items before). Gold is related to this because of what it can be turned into. Other things are as rare as precious metals but people just don't like looking at them as much. And don't think people will enjoy looking at them in the future. They could however be wrong and some things will become less fashionable and be worth less in the future. Not aware of anyone who likes looking at Bitcoin.

Paint on canvas or a block of marble have little inherent value. What is done with them technically and aesthetically can add value. If it is any good that is.

There is behaviour around the edges where a self destroying physical artwork sells for big money. But that is Bill Drummond style performance art and is confined to very few individuals.

Bitcoin offers none of these. It works on the principle that rare (or restricted supply) is automatically valuable. It has nothing to back that up.

But if I was a big investor with deep pockets I could easily make a lot of noise about putting $10bn into Bitcoin and cashing in on the drip straight away as the price rises on foot of my announcement.

Tulips from Amsterdam

Don't look up NFTs whatever you do.

You don't allow for the technical aspect of crypto which adds value.

But what is value? We only value something because of how we feel about it. That the big question. If people didn't value gold it would be like any other rock on the ground.

Okay hit me with it. I have already factored in the use of technology to restrict the supply of something but beyond that what is the value (to the holder) in the technology?

Bitcoin is a store of value, same as anything else. It's pretty much been proven at this stage. 1 coin is worth over $60k. It's market cap will exceed Gold at some point. It's done.
Other Cryptocurrencies are solving real world problems. Smart contracts will be the future. Lots of things do and will use them. Ether (Ethereum) is pretty rubbish but other Cryptos like Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (Dot) are building on that. That's the tech aspect
Cryptos are the future and they are here to stay. Are they a risky investment? Yes. Could you lose it all? Yes. But that is pretty much the same for all investments.

None of that explains how the technology adds value.

I am not saying cryptocurrencies won't hang around. I am not challenging the medium of exchange role (see above) and nor am I saying that investments cannot go down in value (see above) but nobody here has yet explained the underlying basis of the value of a cryptocurrency. Offline the best I have heard is that its marketing. If I can convince you its worth X then its worth X. I need not explain the serious dangers in such a model

But that is true of anything surely?
I think the value of Bitcoin is derived from a few things.
1) It is decentralised, no one is in charge, no bank, no government
2) It is finite
3) To a lesser extent, it is valued by millions of people. Similar to any asset that people value

Traditional currencies like the Dollar or Pound have been used as a store of value for hundreds of years. This is no different.

smelmoth

Quote from: trailer on April 15, 2021, 08:54:46 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 15, 2021, 08:48:01 AM
Quote from: trailer on April 15, 2021, 08:41:35 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 14, 2021, 02:18:24 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 14, 2021, 11:15:07 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 14, 2021, 10:35:28 AM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on April 14, 2021, 09:50:32 AM
Let me be clear, I was talking solely about Bitcoin, not all the other Cryptocurrencies or Alt Coins as they are an entirely different conversation.

Smelmoth, what revenues does gold create?
None, but it still doesn't stop a gold bullion being worth whatever it is worth.
What revenues do jewellry or fancy art generate? But they still hold their value.

Think of Bitcoin the same. An asset just has to be accepted as a Store of Value and then that is what it becomes.  My view (and if you don't hold the same view then that's fine) is that Bitcoin is on the path to being accepted as a bona fide Store of Value; just like a painting or a bit of gold. #

I say this is it is apparent that more corporations are getting involved now as a legitimate part of their treasury holdings (again, I'm just talking about Bitcoin here, no other crypto assets) and the supply is fixed. 

It's some diversification for me as I still have much more in the traditional investments (pensions and stocks and shares ISAs) that I do in Bitcoin. For sure I wouldn't go all in on Bitcoin, just the same way as I wouldn't on any particular individual asset.

Until now I have only heard of cryptocurrencies being proposed as alternative to cash, gilts, stocks, currency or investments that combine some or all of those. Hence my focus on them.

You are now bringing in gold, art and jewellery.

Jewellery's inherent value is in precious metals and to a degree workmanship and the history (who owned/ wore some items before). Gold is related to this because of what it can be turned into. Other things are as rare as precious metals but people just don't like looking at them as much. And don't think people will enjoy looking at them in the future. They could however be wrong and some things will become less fashionable and be worth less in the future. Not aware of anyone who likes looking at Bitcoin.

Paint on canvas or a block of marble have little inherent value. What is done with them technically and aesthetically can add value. If it is any good that is.

There is behaviour around the edges where a self destroying physical artwork sells for big money. But that is Bill Drummond style performance art and is confined to very few individuals.

Bitcoin offers none of these. It works on the principle that rare (or restricted supply) is automatically valuable. It has nothing to back that up.

But if I was a big investor with deep pockets I could easily make a lot of noise about putting $10bn into Bitcoin and cashing in on the drip straight away as the price rises on foot of my announcement.

Tulips from Amsterdam

Don't look up NFTs whatever you do.

You don't allow for the technical aspect of crypto which adds value.

But what is value? We only value something because of how we feel about it. That the big question. If people didn't value gold it would be like any other rock on the ground.

Okay hit me with it. I have already factored in the use of technology to restrict the supply of something but beyond that what is the value (to the holder) in the technology?

Bitcoin is a store of value, same as anything else. It's pretty much been proven at this stage. 1 coin is worth over $60k. It's market cap will exceed Gold at some point. It's done.
Other Cryptocurrencies are solving real world problems. Smart contracts will be the future. Lots of things do and will use them. Ether (Ethereum) is pretty rubbish but other Cryptos like Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (Dot) are building on that. That's the tech aspect
Cryptos are the future and they are here to stay. Are they a risky investment? Yes. Could you lose it all? Yes. But that is pretty much the same for all investments.

None of that explains how the technology adds value.

I am not saying cryptocurrencies won't hang around. I am not challenging the medium of exchange role (see above) and nor am I saying that investments cannot go down in value (see above) but nobody here has yet explained the underlying basis of the value of a cryptocurrency. Offline the best I have heard is that its marketing. If I can convince you its worth X then its worth X. I need not explain the serious dangers in such a model

But that is true of anything surely?
I think the value of Bitcoin is derived from a few things.
1) It is decentralised, no one is in charge, no bank, no government
2) It is finite
3) To a lesser extent, it is valued by millions of people. Similar to any asset that people value

Traditional currencies like the Dollar or Pound have been used as a store of value for hundreds of years. This is no different.

Still nothing on the technology adding value there.

Currencies gain a value but the start as a medium of exchange in a domestic and then international economies. The nature of the trade and the dynamics in those economies (largely)establish the value.

So if crypotcurrencies are the same how are they currently going as a medium of exchange and what is the dynamics in the crypto economy and where is bitcoin going to get to against say the Yen if the Olympics goes ahead without spectators?

trailer

Quote from: smelmoth on April 15, 2021, 09:03:05 AM
Quote from: trailer on April 15, 2021, 08:54:46 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 15, 2021, 08:48:01 AM
Quote from: trailer on April 15, 2021, 08:41:35 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 14, 2021, 02:18:24 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 14, 2021, 11:15:07 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 14, 2021, 10:35:28 AM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on April 14, 2021, 09:50:32 AM
Let me be clear, I was talking solely about Bitcoin, not all the other Cryptocurrencies or Alt Coins as they are an entirely different conversation.

Smelmoth, what revenues does gold create?
None, but it still doesn't stop a gold bullion being worth whatever it is worth.
What revenues do jewellry or fancy art generate? But they still hold their value.

Think of Bitcoin the same. An asset just has to be accepted as a Store of Value and then that is what it becomes.  My view (and if you don't hold the same view then that's fine) is that Bitcoin is on the path to being accepted as a bona fide Store of Value; just like a painting or a bit of gold. #

I say this is it is apparent that more corporations are getting involved now as a legitimate part of their treasury holdings (again, I'm just talking about Bitcoin here, no other crypto assets) and the supply is fixed. 

It's some diversification for me as I still have much more in the traditional investments (pensions and stocks and shares ISAs) that I do in Bitcoin. For sure I wouldn't go all in on Bitcoin, just the same way as I wouldn't on any particular individual asset.

Until now I have only heard of cryptocurrencies being proposed as alternative to cash, gilts, stocks, currency or investments that combine some or all of those. Hence my focus on them.

You are now bringing in gold, art and jewellery.

Jewellery's inherent value is in precious metals and to a degree workmanship and the history (who owned/ wore some items before). Gold is related to this because of what it can be turned into. Other things are as rare as precious metals but people just don't like looking at them as much. And don't think people will enjoy looking at them in the future. They could however be wrong and some things will become less fashionable and be worth less in the future. Not aware of anyone who likes looking at Bitcoin.

Paint on canvas or a block of marble have little inherent value. What is done with them technically and aesthetically can add value. If it is any good that is.

There is behaviour around the edges where a self destroying physical artwork sells for big money. But that is Bill Drummond style performance art and is confined to very few individuals.

Bitcoin offers none of these. It works on the principle that rare (or restricted supply) is automatically valuable. It has nothing to back that up.

But if I was a big investor with deep pockets I could easily make a lot of noise about putting $10bn into Bitcoin and cashing in on the drip straight away as the price rises on foot of my announcement.

Tulips from Amsterdam

Don't look up NFTs whatever you do.

You don't allow for the technical aspect of crypto which adds value.

But what is value? We only value something because of how we feel about it. That the big question. If people didn't value gold it would be like any other rock on the ground.

Okay hit me with it. I have already factored in the use of technology to restrict the supply of something but beyond that what is the value (to the holder) in the technology?

Bitcoin is a store of value, same as anything else. It's pretty much been proven at this stage. 1 coin is worth over $60k. It's market cap will exceed Gold at some point. It's done.
Other Cryptocurrencies are solving real world problems. Smart contracts will be the future. Lots of things do and will use them. Ether (Ethereum) is pretty rubbish but other Cryptos like Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (Dot) are building on that. That's the tech aspect
Cryptos are the future and they are here to stay. Are they a risky investment? Yes. Could you lose it all? Yes. But that is pretty much the same for all investments.

None of that explains how the technology adds value.

I am not saying cryptocurrencies won't hang around. I am not challenging the medium of exchange role (see above) and nor am I saying that investments cannot go down in value (see above) but nobody here has yet explained the underlying basis of the value of a cryptocurrency. Offline the best I have heard is that its marketing. If I can convince you its worth X then its worth X. I need not explain the serious dangers in such a model

But that is true of anything surely?
I think the value of Bitcoin is derived from a few things.
1) It is decentralised, no one is in charge, no bank, no government
2) It is finite
3) To a lesser extent, it is valued by millions of people. Similar to any asset that people value

Traditional currencies like the Dollar or Pound have been used as a store of value for hundreds of years. This is no different.

Still nothing on the technology adding value there.

Currencies gain a value but the start as a medium of exchange in a domestic and then international economies. The nature of the trade and the dynamics in those economies (largely)establish the value.

So if crypotcurrencies are the same how are they currently going as a medium of exchange and what is the dynamics in the crypto economy and where is bitcoin going to get to against say the Yen if the Olympics goes ahead without spectators?

Sorry to be clear. Technology adds value by allowing them to be decentralised. It would be impossible to have a decentralised solution without technology. Apologies I thought that was clear.

Currencies are only valued because people value them. If people lose faith in a currency it devalues pretty quickly no matter what central authorities do. There has been umpteen examples of this.

I don't understand what you mean ref the Olympics

smelmoth

Quote from: trailer on April 15, 2021, 10:04:53 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 15, 2021, 09:03:05 AM
Quote from: trailer on April 15, 2021, 08:54:46 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 15, 2021, 08:48:01 AM
Quote from: trailer on April 15, 2021, 08:41:35 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 14, 2021, 02:18:24 PM
Quote from: trailer on April 14, 2021, 11:15:07 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 14, 2021, 10:35:28 AM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on April 14, 2021, 09:50:32 AM
Let me be clear, I was talking solely about Bitcoin, not all the other Cryptocurrencies or Alt Coins as they are an entirely different conversation.

Smelmoth, what revenues does gold create?
None, but it still doesn't stop a gold bullion being worth whatever it is worth.
What revenues do jewellry or fancy art generate? But they still hold their value.

Think of Bitcoin the same. An asset just has to be accepted as a Store of Value and then that is what it becomes.  My view (and if you don't hold the same view then that's fine) is that Bitcoin is on the path to being accepted as a bona fide Store of Value; just like a painting or a bit of gold. #

I say this is it is apparent that more corporations are getting involved now as a legitimate part of their treasury holdings (again, I'm just talking about Bitcoin here, no other crypto assets) and the supply is fixed. 

It's some diversification for me as I still have much more in the traditional investments (pensions and stocks and shares ISAs) that I do in Bitcoin. For sure I wouldn't go all in on Bitcoin, just the same way as I wouldn't on any particular individual asset.

Until now I have only heard of cryptocurrencies being proposed as alternative to cash, gilts, stocks, currency or investments that combine some or all of those. Hence my focus on them.

You are now bringing in gold, art and jewellery.

Jewellery's inherent value is in precious metals and to a degree workmanship and the history (who owned/ wore some items before). Gold is related to this because of what it can be turned into. Other things are as rare as precious metals but people just don't like looking at them as much. And don't think people will enjoy looking at them in the future. They could however be wrong and some things will become less fashionable and be worth less in the future. Not aware of anyone who likes looking at Bitcoin.

Paint on canvas or a block of marble have little inherent value. What is done with them technically and aesthetically can add value. If it is any good that is.

There is behaviour around the edges where a self destroying physical artwork sells for big money. But that is Bill Drummond style performance art and is confined to very few individuals.

Bitcoin offers none of these. It works on the principle that rare (or restricted supply) is automatically valuable. It has nothing to back that up.

But if I was a big investor with deep pockets I could easily make a lot of noise about putting $10bn into Bitcoin and cashing in on the drip straight away as the price rises on foot of my announcement.

Tulips from Amsterdam

Don't look up NFTs whatever you do.

You don't allow for the technical aspect of crypto which adds value.

But what is value? We only value something because of how we feel about it. That the big question. If people didn't value gold it would be like any other rock on the ground.

Okay hit me with it. I have already factored in the use of technology to restrict the supply of something but beyond that what is the value (to the holder) in the technology?

Bitcoin is a store of value, same as anything else. It's pretty much been proven at this stage. 1 coin is worth over $60k. It's market cap will exceed Gold at some point. It's done.
Other Cryptocurrencies are solving real world problems. Smart contracts will be the future. Lots of things do and will use them. Ether (Ethereum) is pretty rubbish but other Cryptos like Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (Dot) are building on that. That's the tech aspect
Cryptos are the future and they are here to stay. Are they a risky investment? Yes. Could you lose it all? Yes. But that is pretty much the same for all investments.

None of that explains how the technology adds value.

I am not saying cryptocurrencies won't hang around. I am not challenging the medium of exchange role (see above) and nor am I saying that investments cannot go down in value (see above) but nobody here has yet explained the underlying basis of the value of a cryptocurrency. Offline the best I have heard is that its marketing. If I can convince you its worth X then its worth X. I need not explain the serious dangers in such a model

But that is true of anything surely?
I think the value of Bitcoin is derived from a few things.
1) It is decentralised, no one is in charge, no bank, no government
2) It is finite
3) To a lesser extent, it is valued by millions of people. Similar to any asset that people value

Traditional currencies like the Dollar or Pound have been used as a store of value for hundreds of years. This is no different.

Still nothing on the technology adding value there.

Currencies gain a value but the start as a medium of exchange in a domestic and then international economies. The nature of the trade and the dynamics in those economies (largely)establish the value.

So if crypotcurrencies are the same how are they currently going as a medium of exchange and what is the dynamics in the crypto economy and where is bitcoin going to get to against say the Yen if the Olympics goes ahead without spectators?

Sorry to be clear. Technology adds value by allowing them to be decentralised. It would be impossible to have a decentralised solution without technology. Apologies I thought that was clear.

Currencies are only valued because people value them. If people lose faith in a currency it devalues pretty quickly no matter what central authorities do. There has been umpteen examples of this.

I don't understand what you mean ref the Olympics

I get the link between the technology and decentralisation. And I get the paper benefit of decentralisation. But I think it is overplayed.

Means of stopping currency manipulation are clearly of benefit to investors (though there can be other negative consequences). But preventing value manipulation by governments/central banks doesn't achieve much if others can simply manipulate value by marketing.

It's too simple to say currencies are only of value because they value it. The actual value fluctuates in line with real economy dynamics. Some big, some small. Some long term, some short term. The Olympics is a short term and small example. As short term and small as it is it is still real. What are real economy impacts on the current and future value of any given cryptocurrency?

I am being told that crypto currencies are the same as national/bloc currencies. Nobody as yet as explained how

thejuice

Well, it's also becoming a new form of banking. And you can earn between 12 to 14% APY on an asset that can go up in value. Bank of Ireland meanwhile are fleecing me just have money held with them.

I don't have time to get into the ins and outs of why things have value but when you see the cyclical nature of bitcoin and the fact that had I invested back in 2013 I'd have retired already and you see that opportunity coming around again I wasn't going to miss it out this time. If it goes the way of the dodo in a few years I won't mind. I have my plan to cash out when the time is right and if all goes as predicted I'll be in a good spot (though not likely retirement money sadly).
It won't be the next manager but the one after that Meath will become competitive again - MO'D 2016

smelmoth

Quote from: thejuice on April 15, 2021, 01:08:38 PM
Well, it's also becoming a new form of banking. And you can earn between 12 to 14% APY on an asset that can go up in value. Bank of Ireland meanwhile are fleecing me just have money held with them.

I don't have time to get into the ins and outs of why things have value but when you see the cyclical nature of bitcoin and the fact that had I invested back in 2013 I'd have retired already and you see that opportunity coming around again I wasn't going to miss it out this time. If it goes the way of the dodo in a few years I won't mind. I have my plan to cash out when the time is right and if all goes as predicted I'll be in a good spot (though not likely retirement money sadly).

If you are paying BOI negative interest rates you must be in a very large way of going.

Earring interest on cryptocurrency is not mainstream and I would say fraught with danger. Who is paying the interest, how sure are you of getting the cryptocurrency back and is it given hack in its original form or in a "real" currency equivalent. I would be concerned that anyone willing to pay you interest on a cryptocurrency is involved in extremely sub prime lending or is essentially playing with your asset on a rent to short play. What regulatory framework is this within?

But I fully agree with your last point. The "right time" is definitely the best time to cash out an investment. Bonne chance

smelmoth

So cutting to the chase - if Bitcoin was overvalued by say 15% how would you know?

yellowcard

I would agree with the points that Smelmoth is making. I would also add that the people who like to talk up Crypto mostly appear to already have skin in the game and it is in their best interest to do so. So all of the noise makes ordinary Joe Public feel as though they are missing out on something. Take for example how Elon Musk announced his investment and the credibility that big investors like him then give to the legitimacy of the currency. Will the same announcements be made on the sale side of the transaction, I wouldn't be so sure. He could slip back out of the Bitcoin market now with a huge profit.

So when I read somewhere back in this thread that there is a less than 10% chance that Bitcoin is valued lower in the long term than it is today, this should come with a health warning. This is based on opinion and not factual and we've all seen this movie before with other investments & assets. Any investments made into Crypto at this stage would need to be treated as spare money that you can afford to lose, just like going down to the bookies on a Saturday. If you've got in at low base costs well then brilliant but until you cash out you hold only a paper profit.



TheGreatest

Dogecoin is up 13,000 in the last 12 months. 430% this week. Its one of the most valuable assets on the planet

smelmoth

Best to look at crypto currencies (from an investment perspective) is as a cruel joke.

A few might get a laugh along the way but at what cost.

Those holding it today can get their money back before the bubble bursts but only by passing the problem to somebody else. The only people involved for whom this is not true is that the ones that got in low and trousered the uplift on the greater part of the stake and can well afford to cash out too late on what stake they left.

I notice there is no big rush of posters trying to explain the basis of the value of a cryptocurrency

Smokin Joe

Quote from: smelmoth on April 16, 2021, 03:21:33 PM
Best to look at crypto currencies (from an investment perspective) is as a cruel joke.

A few might get a laugh along the way but at what cost.

Those holding it today can get their money back before the bubble bursts but only by passing the problem to somebody else. The only people involved for whom this is not true is that the ones that got in low and trousered the uplift on the greater part of the stake and can well afford to cash out too late on what stake they left.

I notice there is no big rush of posters trying to explain the basis of the value of a cryptocurrency

I've already told you that, in my opinion, Bitcoin is valued on the same basis as gold. That is people believe it is a Store of Value.
Gold doesn't have value because it makes "pretty" jewellery as you suggested earlier, because fakes can be made that look just as "pretty".

Whether Bitcoin becomes that Store of Value is the question, I think it will, you think it won't. That's all there is to it.  We'll have a better idea in 2025 as to who was right.

Franko

Quote from: smelmoth on April 15, 2021, 02:08:26 PM
So cutting to the chase - if Bitcoin was overvalued by say 15% how would you know?

Could the exact same question not be asked about gold?

smelmoth

Quote from: Franko on April 16, 2021, 04:22:17 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 15, 2021, 02:08:26 PM
So cutting to the chase - if Bitcoin was overvalued by say 15% how would you know?

Could the exact same question not be asked about gold?

It can be asked about anything.

It's is relatively easy to answer (though not with absolute certainty) about a stock, gilt, currency or receivable.

It's is less easy to answer about gold because subjectivity plays more of a role. But subjectivity is far from the only factor.

With gold you can look to both historic ranges and the performance/expected performance of alternatives. The performance of alternatives is key to gold as it's a "flight to" investment. It's short term performance can vary but is has long term pedigree. Very large investors hold some gold and increase their holdings when they get concerned about their other asset classes. A retail investor investing in gold is a bloody fool.

Posing cryptocurrency as an alternative to gold is an academic conversation for retail investors. Investing in neither makes sense.

Anyone want to spell out why it's an alternative to stocks, currency etc?