Brexit.

[seafoid]

https://youtu.be/Pm8JzSVaB1c

I thought this was a joke until Mike showed up in 1987's suit...

Is it in Ulster Scots?

[NAG1]

https://youtu.be/Pm8JzSVaB1c

I thought this was a joke until Mike showed up in 1987's suit...

Is it in Ulster Scots?

Can you imagine the meeting which they actually watched this finished project and thought to themselves, 'this is actually really good, we will go with this'?

One of the most cringe-worthy things I have seen in a long time and probably re-emphasises how out of touch politicians are in general.

[armaghniac]

Some data from the BBC http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38762034

Definite trend in the education levels.

[seafoid]

According to Private Eye DEXI ,which is the department for exit from the EU , cannot get civil servants cos anyone with a brain voted Remain. Brexit is the sort of madness that could detach NI from the teat of England.

[No wides]

According to Private Eye DEXI ,which is the department for exit from the EU , cannot get civil servants cos anyone with a brain voted Remain. Brexit is the sort of madness that could detach NI from the teat of England.

Yeah because no one qualified enough wouldn't take the huge fees to negotiate the exit based on principal - f**k you post some shite, in other news I believe according to a source on the internet as soon as article 50 is triggered, all men above 40 will stop having erections!

[Rossfan]

By Jases you'd give Seafín a good run for his money in the shite posting stakes .

[No wides]

By Jases you'd give Seafín a good run for his money in the shite posting stakes .

How did you get on with your PR lecture in Omagh, are we on for a united Ireland this year?

[seafoid]

According to Private Eye DEXI ,which is the department for exit from the EU , cannot get civil servants cos anyone with a brain voted Remain. Brexit is the sort of madness that could detach NI from the teat of England.

Yeah because no one qualified enough wouldn't take the huge fees to negotiate the exit based on principal - f**k you post some shite, in other news I believe according to a source on the internet as soon as article 50 is triggered, all men above 40 will stop having erections!

Having an erection has no effect on GDP.
The Torygraph reports that tax as a % of UK gdp is back to 1986 levels. Liverpool were winning stuff back then so it is quite a while ago.

[thewobbler]

I look forward to the day when someone comes along who is able to analyse Brexit with complete objectivity.

As a subject it seems to attract people who wilfully hunt down and then promote only those pockets of information (whether based on fact or not, as long as someone has said it somewhere) that back up their original stance.

It has actually developed religious undertones.

Which can't end well.

[No wides]

I look forward to the day when someone comes along who is able to analyse Brexit with complete objectivity.

As a subject it seems to attract people who wilfully hunt down and then promote only those pockets of information (whether based on fact or not, as long as someone has said it somewhere) that back up their original stance.

It actually become sort of religious.

Which can't end well.

Best post ever on the subject, this bold bit is seafoid in a nutshell.

[seafoid]

I look forward to the day when someone comes along who is able to analyse Brexit with complete objectivity.

As a subject it seems to attract people who wilfully hunt down and then promote only those pockets of information (whether based on fact or not, as long as someone has said it somewhere) that back up their original stance.

It actually become sort of religious.

Which can't end well.

Best post ever on the subject, this bold bit is seafoid in a nutshell.

Show me an economic case for Brexit a mhaicín

[No wides]

Brexit hasn't happened kid, all your posts are pure scaremongering facilitated by your own deluded sense of expertise on a process which hasn't happened before.

[heganboy]

An interesting opinion piece in the examiner
http://www.irishexaminer.com/viewpoints/analysis/the-irish-border-after-brexit-will-be-real-but-can-be-simplified-442136.html
This is by Michael Lux and Eric Pickett 2 tax and customs lawyers who also gave evidence at the northern Ireland committee in Westminster last week.
Lux is a German and former head of the EU's custom process.

BRITISH prime minister Theresa May declared in her white paper on the United Kingdom's exit from and new partnership with the European Union the following: "When the UK leaves the EU we aim to have as seamless and frictionless a border as possible between Northern Ireland and Ireland, so that we can continue to see the trade and everyday movements we have seen up to now."

So what will that mean in practice?

When the UK exits the customs union of the EU, the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland will become an external customs border. Private persons carrying goods bought on the other side of the border and commercial traffic which had passed the border freely under the rules of the single market will then have to comply with the customs procedures applicable in Ireland or the UK.


In Ireland, the customs legislation of the EU will apply to movements of goods between Northern Ireland and Ireland. The EU rules on VAT and excise duties (eg, on alcohol and tobacco) on importation will also apply when goods are brought from Northern Ireland to Ireland.

This means that it will not be possible "to see the trade and everyday movements we have seen up to now". Travellers can import goods from Northern Ireland duty and tax free only up to a certain amount (€300, with limitations for alcohol and tobacco) and will have to declare goods with a value above the threshold when entering Ireland.

Irish traders will have to declare to customs goods to be exported to, or to be imported from, Northern Ireland. In order to ensure that the customs, VAT and excise rules are complied with, Irish Customs will perform risk-based and random checks of private persons and lorries crossing the border from the North.

This may lead to queues and delays. It can be expected that the UK will have comparable rules, as it will also want to protect its financial interests.

These border formalities will increase the costs for traders because they will either have to recruit a customs specialist or use a service provider, such as a logistics company specialised in customs formalities or a customs agent.

Manufacturers will have to reconsider whether it is still economically feasible to move goods for processing several times over the border (eg, using milk from Northern Ireland in order to produce yoghurt in Ireland and re-exporting the yoghurt).

Current trade flows will therefore change. Private persons will also adjust their shopping habits and will consider on the one hand whether they want to be subjected to occasional customs controls (risking to be fined if they have exceeded the duty-free threshold), and, on the other hand, whether buying goods in Northern Ireland will be more favourable, due to different prices and duties, as well as currency fluctuations. People in Northern Ireland will make the same considerations when reflecting on whether to shop in Ireland.

The white paper announces that the UK is aiming at concluding a "new comprehensive, bold and ambitious free trade agreement" with the EU.

This could be misunderstood in the sense that trade between Ireland and Northern Ireland would be "free". Unfortunately, this is not true. A free trade agreement only means that goods made entirely or substantially in the partner country are free from import duty.

Import Vat and excise duty are still due and will be collected in the context of an importation. Furthermore, goods made outside Northern Ireland (eg, a mobile phone made in China and bought in Northern Ireland) and goods manufactured with a large proportion of foreign components (eg, a Caterpillar made in Northern Ireland with a substantial part of Chinese components) will not be duty-free when imported into Ireland.

Controlling whether the conditions for duty-free treatment are fulfilled will be the task of the customs authorities in both countries. Complying with these rules will create an additional administrative burden for traders.

Furthermore, the importer risks that non-compliance is only detected during a customs audit and that the normal customs duties are then recovered; as the goods have normally already been sold to the customers, the importer has to bear the unexpected financial burden.

While a "special deal" just between Northern Ireland and Ireland isn't legally possible and special EU customs rules for the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland are unlikely, the main goal now is to ensure that the customs procedures and formalities will be as seamless and frictionless as possible for private persons and businesses.

The customs legislation of the union foresees a number of simplifications, such as oral customs declarations or even declarations made by passing the border, as well as declarations made by entry in the records which can be used if the conditions are met.

Furthermore, Ireland and the UK could agree that there is only one border stop so that an export from Ireland is treated at the same time as an import into the UK, and vice versa.

This can be achieved either through a joint border office in which officials from both countries are working, or by empowering, eg, the customs officials of Ireland to act also on behalf of the UK.

Much can be done in preparation for the new situation irrespective of the final relationship between the UK and the EU. For example, investments in constructing a sufficient number of customs offices, installing scanners so that lorries do not need to be unloaded on most cases, red and green lanes for vehicles, creating and maintaining a compatible IT infrastructure, can help to significantly reduce queues, delays and red tape.

If the UK joins the common transit convention, goods could be moved from the point of departure to the point of destination (eg, from Dublin to Belfast) under duty suspension without a need for controls at the border.

Ireland should already consider recruiting and training additional customs officials because the new customs offices at the border with Northern Ireland will need a sufficient number of well-trained staff, The workload will increase for Irish customs in other customs offices, too, due to the fact that trade with the UK will become subject to customs formalities, and irrespective of the kind of preferential agreement that might be concluded between the EU and the UK, if any.

The main benefit of the Brexit for Ireland will be that it provides new work opportunities for customs specialists, accountants, IT experts, and infrastructure builders. Irish travellers will have to comply with the customs and the related Vat and excise rules when they buy goods in Northern Ireland.

[thewobbler]

I look forward to the day when someone comes along who is able to analyse Brexit with complete objectivity.

As a subject it seems to attract people who wilfully hunt down and then promote only those pockets of information (whether based on fact or not, as long as someone has said it somewhere) that back up their original stance.

It actually become sort of religious.

Which can't end well.

Best post ever on the subject, this bold bit is seafoid in a nutshell.

Show me an economic case for Brexit a mhaicín

I don't have to. Here's the thing. It could be 20 years before the effect of Brexit is measurable.... yet no matter what those figures suggest it will still be impossible to assess whether it was the right decision, the wrong decision, or entirely neutral.

For until someone invents a time machine, it's impossible to know how things would have operated in an alternate reality with a different decision. In that alternate reality, for example, it might have taken 5 more years for the Italians to trigger their Brexit and sow the seeds for the EU's disintegration. Or perhaps the increasing right wing presence of governments in Europe might have forced the UK into a hasty retreat. Nobody will ever know.

Which ultimately, due to the inability of human beings to run accurate simulations of the butterfly effect, is why economists are, to a man (and woman) almost always and completely wrong in their economic predictions. It's effectively guesswork to devise a macroeconomic strategy from the events of the past, as there are just too many variables, and not enough constants.

[No wides]

I look forward to the day when someone comes along who is able to analyse Brexit with complete objectivity.

As a subject it seems to attract people who wilfully hunt down and then promote only those pockets of information (whether based on fact or not, as long as someone has said it somewhere) that back up their original stance.

It actually become sort of religious.

Which can't end well.

Best post ever on the subject, this bold bit is seafoid in a nutshell.

Show me an economic case for Brexit a mhaicín

I don't have to. Here's the thing. It could be 20 years before the effect of Brexit is measurable.... yet no matter what those figures suggest it will still be impossible to assess whether it was the right decision, the wrong decision, or entirely neutral.

For until someone invents a time machine, it's impossible to know how things would have operated in an alternate reality with a different decision. In that alternate reality, for example, it might have taken 5 more years for the Italians to trigger their Brexit and sow the seeds for the EU's disintegration. Or perhaps the increasing right wing presence of governments in Europe might have forced the UK into a hasty retreat. Nobody will ever know.

Which ultimately, due to the inability of human beings to run accurate simulations of the butterfly effect, is why economists are, to a man (and woman) almost always and completely wrong in their economic predictions. It's effectively guesswork to devise a macroeconomic strategy from the events of the past, as there are just too many variables, and not enough constants.

In 164 pages of drivel, sense prevails, very sensible well worded post.  +1