Brexit.

[seafoid]

That is scary reading.

It is beyond hopeless I think.

The comments on the article go into more depth. There is zero upside for the UK.
I will post a few next week.

[heganboy]

Interesting case being brought to challenge the legal status of Brexit versus the GFA
http://money.cnn.com/2016/08/12/news/brexit-legal-cases-lawsuits/

[seafoid]

Martin Wolf, FT FT11 days ago
@SpeakingUp I strongly agree. The Leavers persuaded the British people to support them on a fraudulent basis. They also had (and have) no plan for leaving. That is worse than merely fraudulent. It is grotesquely irresponsible. The fact that this was the case was pointed out by many commentators (including me). The government is not to blame for not having a plan for Brexit, since there simply is no sensible plan for Brexit. Whatever the government does, it is going to be a terrible mess. The government is instead to blame for holding the idiotic referendum in the first place. Competent governments do not present the option of a national disaster before the electorate


sun carriage 9 days ago
@Armchair Economist. The harshest criticism in my view of Cameron, was his refusal to allow the Civil Servants to have prepared for the possibility of defeat, over the referendum. He put winning in front of the interests of his country. I do not think, that is forgivable.
Coase Theorem 9 days ago
sun carriage
But is EEA what the UK wants?
No
The U.K. doesn't know what it wants
Deciding what the UK wants is David Davis's job and he hasn't decided yet
As it happens EEA doesn't involve that much work (that's one of its virtues) so a lack of planning for it doesn't preclude it
What precludes it is that we don't know if as a country we want it

Italianstallion 9 days ago
@Coase Theorem Actually, David Davis thinks he knows what he wants (a special deal for UK, if not WTO then  later free trade deals).  This is worse than someone saying that the situation is new, lets think about what I want. If the Brexiteers would freely admit that they need time to work out what they want, as opposed to "preparation" time,  I for one would gain respect for them; as it is they (Davis and e.g Jenkins), live in a false world of certainty - only inconvenienced by the facts around them.  That is deeply worrying to me.  The comments on the civil service not being prepared are silly - how could they prepare for an inchoate desire to leave without any view about where to go next.

[seafoid]

David Allen Green FT guest writer9 days ago
@Hyerophant
Little is (literally) impossible in the field of human affairs, and so most political objectives can be achieved with skill and will-power sufficient for the task in question.
There is, however, no indication that there is sufficient political skill and will-power for the task of Brexit.
Italianstallion 9 days ago
@David Allen Green @Hyerophant David.  Please be franker.  At the moment there is no indication of any actual objectives for the negotiation, and no indication of any knowledge of basic facts.  Once we have these we can worry about second order things like skill and will power
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Rabiusa 9 days ago
I appreciate the hard truths exposed by this article. I predict that Brexit will be a very messy and chaotic affair. I clean break is impossible without doing irreparable damage to the UK economy, and by contrast any long-term dithering by the current government in implementing article 50 will simply prolong the economic uncertainty and may backfire politically. I do not believe May's appointments have what it takes to negotiate a good deal for Britain upon its eventual withdrawal (or ejection). It's going to be a mess, and it will damage the UK economy. The question is to what extent and how acutely. The lack of planning for exit by either the Brexiteers or the previous government is so negligent and naive it is almost criminal.
Fisher of Men 9 days ago
Excellent article.  I work in the Middle East alongside international executives, many of whom come from countries Brexiters hope to trade with.  I offer some context from the coal face for our intrepid Ministers. 
None can understand why UK is doing this and firmly believe we have weakened our international standing. They all laugh about the idea of us entering into WTO or bilateral negotiations as they know UK comes begging and will get well and truly shafted. 
Specific comments by country:
Saudis - 'you are now weak - how can you hope to negotiate from such a position.  Why doesn't your Queen do something?'
Chinese - 'you forget we are not really interested in trading with UK - we are only interested in buying houses in London and gaining access to your universities '
Americans - 'we still can't believe you allowed this to happen - how can one of the oldest democracies and guardian of English Law permit a bunch of Ministers to commit economic suicide.  And then you appoint them to define your future relationship with the EU and us!  Is this some sort of Mr Bean sketch....'
French - 'Don't worry my friend - there will be some sort of solution found'
Indians - 'we will trade with you but what are you going to sell to us.? You have already given us your best exports - cricket, the railways and the Civil Service.  Have you any idea how insanely difficult it is to do business in India!'
I could go on and whether you agree or disagree with the comments they show the size and scale of the task ahead.
Time to find Bulldog Drummond and Union Jack Jackson........but sadly this is the real world.

[seafoid]

Mr Subsea 9 days ago
Country and continent ruined by David Cameron's weakness in the face of UKIP, and not a single politician with the courage to stand up and state the obvious - that the public as a whole simply doesn't have the intellectual capacity to be allowed to vote on matters of such enormous consequence to all. Too many  are easily manipulated by Machiavellan forces like to Murdoch, Dacre & Co.
The one thing I am struggling to figure out is what these dark forces actually have to gain in the aggregate from the global depression that I fear will be the longer term ramification of Brexit. Ultimately it can't be good for global businesses like those Murduch presides over so I can only conclude it's about power, manipulation and control for their own sake. Horrifying really.
Eden de Vizes 9 days ago
It is increasingly clear that Brexit is a disaster. Even if there were a road map to achieving a sustainable alternative, which there clearly isn't, there is no basis for having any faith in the governmental & administrative resources of the U.K. to follow it.
As Martin Wolf remarked in the debate leading up to the referendum: "Leavers are mad". At that point he just meant: mad to want that outcome. But now we can see that madness indeed rules.
To think that Brexit can be made to work satisfactorily is now objectively to suspend rational thought. That's not the same thing as saying the EU is ideal & does not need reform.
The Leave campaign wrapped itself in a flag of jingoistic patriotism (and I will not even mention the lies). The true patriots now are those of us who are committed in every way to stopping this lunacy.
Rail at me, you Brexiteers. I know you will. But please read the tsunami of informed opinion and analysis showing your position to be fantastical, impractical and effectively unachievable.

[armaghniac]

Interesting case being brought to challenge the legal status of Brexit versus the GFA
http://money.cnn.com/2016/08/12/news/brexit-legal-cases-lawsuits/

Presumably this is the case discussed here about 3 weeks ago. It certainly has potential. It cannot stop the British of course, but it would require them to withdraw from the GFA, notifying the US etc and repeal the Northern Ireland Act 1998. At lot of pro Remain sentiment, not previously much interested in NI, might suddenly become very concerned about NI in that case.

[Hereiam]

What do people think will be the first real impact that Joe blogs is going to suffer because of the brexit and how soon.

[muppet]

What do people think will be the first real impact that Joe blogs is going to suffer because of the brexit and how soon.

If the exchange rate matters to you or your work, then that might be the first effect.

Otherwise recession and all that goes with it (rising unemployment, more austerity etc.).

When? in the next few months, possibly before the Brexit talks even begin.

[armaghniac]

What do people think will be the first real impact that Joe blogs is going to suffer because of the brexit and how soon.

If the exchange rate matters to you or your work, then that might be the first effect.

Otherwise recession and all that goes with it (rising unemployment, more austerity etc.).

When? in the next few months, possibly before the Brexit talks even begin.

With sterling having dropped, inflation in the UK will kick up fairly quickly, with all of  the uncertainty around wages etc will not necessarily follow.
The pensioners who voted for Brexit will find their pensions/annuities etc going down, while prices tend to go up.

[bennydorano]

Big week for the UK, a lot of 'post brexit' data due. Just reading there about Retail sales in the period expected to be very good, would expect a Sterling currency bounce if true. Plenty of other factors to negate that I'm sure but sterling's  bound to be in the bottomed out zone now (especially with plenty of Eurozone woes).

[armaghniac]

Big week for the UK, a lot of 'post brexit' data due. Just reading there about Retail sales in the period expected to be very good, would expect a Sterling currency bounce if true. Plenty of other factors to negate that I'm sure but sterling's  bound to be in the bottomed out zone now (especially with plenty of Eurozone woes).

Sterling down half a cent this morning, so it might pause sometime soon. I'm not sure that more retail sales should cause a bounce, it just means more imports and a bigger trade deficit.

[screenexile]

What do people think will be the first real impact that Joe blogs is going to suffer because of the brexit and how soon.

If the exchange rate matters to you or your work, then that might be the first effect.

Otherwise recession and all that goes with it (rising unemployment, more austerity etc.).

When? in the next few months, possibly before the Brexit talks even begin.

That is your first effect and has been a nightmare since the vote in all honesty.

Spoke to a few people who have their weddings booked this summer in the South... a 15% hike for that as well doesn't help things!!

[seafoid]

What do people think will be the first real impact that Joe blogs is going to suffer because of the brexit and how soon.

If the exchange rate matters to you or your work, then that might be the first effect.

Otherwise recession and all that goes with it (rising unemployment, more austerity etc.).

When? in the next few months, possibly before the Brexit talks even begin.

With sterling having dropped, inflation in the UK will kick up fairly quickly, with all of  the uncertainty around wages etc will not necessarily follow.
The pensioners who voted for Brexit will find their pensions/annuities etc going down, while prices tend to go up.

UK wages have been falling in real terms since 08. Productivity growth is chronic. The UK is fucked.

[AZOffaly]

If you are an exporter to the UK, of goods or services, then you will be hit by the poor pound straight away. If I am selling services for €1000 per day to a company in the UK, that will cost that company £868 today. Last year it may have been £800 or less. That's a significant difference when you start to add zeroes to the amount.

[bennydorano]

Big week for the UK, a lot of 'post brexit' data due. Just reading there about Retail sales in the period expected to be very good, would expect a Sterling currency bounce if true. Plenty of other factors to negate that I'm sure but sterling's  bound to be in the bottomed out zone now (especially with plenty of Eurozone woes).

Sterling down half a cent this morning, so it might pause sometime soon. I'm not sure that more retail sales should cause a bounce, it just means more imports and a bigger trade deficit.

All about the great Economic intangible - Confidence  (presumably).