China Coronavirus

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

On the ethics, I think if you can help charge enough to cover your costs. If it was me I wouldn't be trying to profit in a pandemic on other peoples misery.

The companies that are paying people extra to go to work - Baxter, Tesco etc and the moronic unions that agreed it. They are a disgrace and are actually incentivising people to risk going to work who should not be going. If they put their efforts into making their work places safer they would be much better off. Baxter for a medical device company should hang their head in shame to put a global program like that in place.

Tesco need people to go to work as they are feeding the rest of us. These people are busy and working hard and an extra payment seems appropriate. Now they could do more to make their workplaces safer, to be sure, and so could most employers.

Agreed. I would love to hear Michelle O'Neills solution to how we keep the country(north or south) going. We are at the unfortunate point of having to accept that  many businesses are needed, and will need to remain open with some controls.

In fairness, I don't think that Michelle O'Neill thinks that the likes of Tesco should be closed.

No agreed, but she is peddling a line which gives the impression that many other business can and shouid close. I'm sure by now conor Murphy may have realised that HRMC need the money never mind us needing the services.

As are the SDLP. Rightly so in my eyes s well. But I wonder why you felt felt the need to hit M'ON

Mr Durkan said the enforced closures of non-essential workplaces must also be in place as soon as possible.

Because she is dfm. I am not an SDLP supporter and last time I checked Mr Durkan wasnt calling the shots here

[trueblue1234]

On the ethics, I think if you can help charge enough to cover your costs. If it was me I wouldn't be trying to profit in a pandemic on other peoples misery.

The companies that are paying people extra to go to work - Baxter, Tesco etc and the moronic unions that agreed it. They are a disgrace and are actually incentivising people to risk going to work who should not be going. If they put their efforts into making their work places safer they would be much better off. Baxter for a medical device company should hang their head in shame to put a global program like that in place.

Tesco need people to go to work as they are feeding the rest of us. These people are busy and working hard and an extra payment seems appropriate. Now they could do more to make their workplaces safer, to be sure, and so could most employers.

Agreed. I would love to hear Michelle O'Neills solution to how we keep the country(north or south) going. We are at the unfortunate point of having to accept that  many businesses are needed, and will need to remain open with some controls.

In fairness, I don't think that Michelle O'Neill thinks that the likes of Tesco should be closed.

No agreed, but she is peddling a line which gives the impression that many other business can and shouid close. I'm sure by now conor Murphy may have realised that HRMC need the money never mind us needing the services.

As are the SDLP. Rightly so in my eyes s well. But I wonder why you felt felt the need to hit M'ON

Mr Durkan said the enforced closures of non-essential workplaces must also be in place as soon as possible.

Because she is dfm. I am not an SDLP supporter and last time I checked Mr Durkan wasnt calling the shots here

So just so I'm clear, you don't think None essential businesses should be closed?

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

is this just lazy journalism or is there something else going on? - https://twitter.com/360_stan/status/1244575113003044865

the #emptyhospitals is also interesting on twitter. is it the calm before the storm?

It is the same in this country, the drunks and hypochondriacs have abandoned the A&E, while there are less accidents on sites, children's playgrounds etc. As mentioned on RTÉ radio this morning, they are worried that actual ill people are also not going to the doctor.

doesn't escape the fact that lots of people have lost their jobs and the world economy is in the shitter.

Yep. Although it was reported on RTÉ that Ireland would be one of the least badly affected, while still getting a dose.

No agreed, but she is peddling a line which gives the impression that many other business can and shouid close. I'm sure by now conor Murphy may have realised that HRMC need the money never mind us needing the services.

She is arguing for the same approach throughout Ireland, which is right and proper. Dampen down this virus and then you can have more business.

But it will not work. Sinn féin have yet to produce a list which they claim would be acceptable to them. Bring solutions not problems

Separated by a single sentence. 

It will not work because sf are calling for a much wider shut down. Any sensible shut down or solution will lead to a list similar to ROI which balances health and economic concerns. Michelle probably knows that, but as someone said, she is playing politics with the anti DUP or FG card

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

On the ethics, I think if you can help charge enough to cover your costs. If it was me I wouldn't be trying to profit in a pandemic on other peoples misery.

The companies that are paying people extra to go to work - Baxter, Tesco etc and the moronic unions that agreed it. They are a disgrace and are actually incentivising people to risk going to work who should not be going. If they put their efforts into making their work places safer they would be much better off. Baxter for a medical device company should hang their head in shame to put a global program like that in place.

Tesco need people to go to work as they are feeding the rest of us. These people are busy and working hard and an extra payment seems appropriate. Now they could do more to make their workplaces safer, to be sure, and so could most employers.

Agreed. I would love to hear Michelle O'Neills solution to how we keep the country(north or south) going. We are at the unfortunate point of having to accept that  many businesses are needed, and will need to remain open with some controls.

In fairness, I don't think that Michelle O'Neill thinks that the likes of Tesco should be closed.

No agreed, but she is peddling a line which gives the impression that many other business can and shouid close. I'm sure by now conor Murphy may have realised that HRMC need the money never mind us needing the services.

As are the SDLP. Rightly so in my eyes s well. But I wonder why you felt felt the need to hit M'ON

Mr Durkan said the enforced closures of non-essential workplaces must also be in place as soon as possible.

Because she is dfm. I am not an SDLP supporter and last time I checked Mr Durkan wasnt calling the shots here

So just so I'm clear, you don't think None essential businesses should be closed?

Of course I do. But I'd love to see this magical sf list and how it differs from what we currently have

[RadioGAAGAA]

Watch a rerun of View from Stormont last night with the died in the wool Sam McConkey saying London was asleep at the wheel on CV-19.
I personally don't think they were as their herd immunity plan requires a large percentage of the population to catch it but it's got away from them particularly in London.
Boris and their CSO, CMO are out of kilter on this and Michelle was entirely right to say so.

Sorry, but 2 minutes on the back of a fag packet shows that was never going to add up.

For percentage of the population that needed to get the virus for herd immunity to kick in, given the proportion of those infected that would fall ill and need (a) hospital care and (b) intensive hospital care - it was simply never going to add up given the capacity of the NHS.

Either Cummings was calling the shots or the CSO and CMO are mentally retarded. Which do you think is more likely?

[screenexile]

Watch a rerun of View from Stormont last night with the died in the wool Sam McConkey saying London was asleep at the wheel on CV-19.
I personally don't think they were as their herd immunity plan requires a large percentage of the population to catch it but it's got away from them particularly in London.
Boris and their CSO, CMO are out of kilter on this and Michelle was entirely right to say so.

Sorry, but 2 minutes on the back of a fag packet shows that was never going to add up.

For percentage of the population that needed to get the virus for herd immunity to kick in, given the proportion of those infected that would fall ill and need (a) hospital care and (b) intensive hospital care - it was simply never going to add up given the capacity of the NHS.

Either Cummings was calling the shots or the CSO and CMO are mentally retarded. Which do you think is more likely?

I don't think herd immunity was ever a real thing... I reckon it was talked about and Cummings floated it to journo's (Downing street source") and the Govt quickly dismissed it. Look it was probably talked about/considered and then dismissed but I haven't seen anything to say it was the official policy to go with herd immunity.

There's plenty of things to beat the Govt up about but herd immunity isn't really one of them. Their disastrous communication, lack of speed in calling a full lockdown, lack of testing and PPE being the major points of focus!!

[Hound]

Watch a rerun of View from Stormont last night with the died in the wool Sam McConkey saying London was asleep at the wheel on CV-19.
I personally don't think they were as their herd immunity plan requires a large percentage of the population to catch it but it's got away from them particularly in London.
Boris and their CSO, CMO are out of kilter on this and Michelle was entirely right to say so.

Sorry, but 2 minutes on the back of a fag packet shows that was never going to add up.

For percentage of the population that needed to get the virus for herd immunity to kick in, given the proportion of those infected that would fall ill and need (a) hospital care and (b) intensive hospital care - it was simply never going to add up given the capacity of the NHS.

Either Cummings was calling the shots or the CSO and CMO are mentally retarded. Which do you think is more likely?

I don't think herd immunity was ever a real thing... I reckon it was talked about and Cummings floated it to journo's (Downing street source") and the Govt quickly dismissed it. Look it was probably talked about/considered and then dismissed but I haven't seen anything to say it was the official policy to go with herd immunity.

There's plenty of things to beat the Govt up about but herd immunity isn't really one of them. Their disastrous communication, lack of speed in calling a full lockdown, lack of testing and PPE being the major points of focus!!

It definitely was a real thing. Wasn't Boris's idea though of course, and they changed tack after no more than a few days
According to the BBC website a few days, the Dutch are taking a herd immunity approach as part of their plans

[RadioGAAGAA]

Watch a rerun of View from Stormont last night with the died in the wool Sam McConkey saying London was asleep at the wheel on CV-19.
I personally don't think they were as their herd immunity plan requires a large percentage of the population to catch it but it's got away from them particularly in London.
Boris and their CSO, CMO are out of kilter on this and Michelle was entirely right to say so.

Sorry, but 2 minutes on the back of a fag packet shows that was never going to add up.

For percentage of the population that needed to get the virus for herd immunity to kick in, given the proportion of those infected that would fall ill and need (a) hospital care and (b) intensive hospital care - it was simply never going to add up given the capacity of the NHS.

Either Cummings was calling the shots or the CSO and CMO are mentally retarded. Which do you think is more likely?

I don't think herd immunity was ever a real thing... I reckon it was talked about and Cummings floated it to journo's (Downing street source") and the Govt quickly dismissed it. Look it was probably talked about/considered and then dismissed but I haven't seen anything to say it was the official policy to go with herd immunity.

There's plenty of things to beat the Govt up about but herd immunity isn't really one of them. Their disastrous communication, lack of speed in calling a full lockdown, lack of testing and PPE being the major points of focus!!

Dunno about that:

https://www.ft.com/content/38a81588-6508-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

Britain's chief scientific adviser stoked controversy on Friday when he said that about 40m people in the UK could need to catch the coronavirus to build up "herd immunity" and prevent the disease coming back in the future.

Defending Prime Minister Boris Johnson's decision not to follow other European countries by closing schools and banning mass gatherings, Patrick Vallance said it was the government's aim to "reduce the peak of the epidemic, pull it down and broaden it" while protecting the elderly and vulnerable.

But Sir Patrick told Sky News that experts estimated that about 60 per cent of the UK's 66m population would have to contract coronavirus in order for society to build up immunity.

"Communities will become immune to it and that's going to be an important part of controlling this longer term," he said. "About 60 per cent is the sort of figure you need to get herd immunity."

In another interview with the BBC, Sir Patrick said: "If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time."

He added: "Our aim is to try to reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it."

[gallsman]

Of course herd immunity is a thing. However, as has been pointed out from the very beginning, it's not a strategy for managing the spread of a pandemic. It's a consequence of allowing that pandemic to spread.

[lfdown2]

Former World Health Organisation director Prof Karol Sikora explains why the threat from the virus should drop after the peak is reached.

"If you go to Korea tomorrow, you'll find that the majority of people have had the virus - some of them won't even know they've had the virus - but they'll still be immune to it.

"Herd immunity grows, once it gets to 50% the virus has nowhere to go.

"At the moment, a person going out onto the street has the potential to infect up to 2.5 people with the virus

"But once other people around them become immune, there's nowhere for the virus to go, so the pandemic disappears and that's always the same with pandemics.

"The difficulty is to make that judgement call about when to let social distancing relax, to allow businesses to open, to allow the economy to grow."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-northern-ireland-52069262

Could our resident experts advise whether this is dangerous and as such should the Professor be sanctioned?

[johnnycool]

Watch a rerun of View from Stormont last night with the died in the wool Sam McConkey saying London was asleep at the wheel on CV-19.
I personally don't think they were as their herd immunity plan requires a large percentage of the population to catch it but it's got away from them particularly in London.
Boris and their CSO, CMO are out of kilter on this and Michelle was entirely right to say so.

Sorry, but 2 minutes on the back of a fag packet shows that was never going to add up.

For percentage of the population that needed to get the virus for herd immunity to kick in, given the proportion of those infected that would fall ill and need (a) hospital care and (b) intensive hospital care - it was simply never going to add up given the capacity of the NHS.

Either Cummings was calling the shots or the CSO and CMO are mentally retarded. Which do you think is more likely?

A bit of A and a bit of B and a bit of keeping the economy going with Brexit imminent.

The flaws in their approach and modelling have large holes in them as was being pointed out to them by the scientific community at large and they either willfully or through ignorance ignored the experiences of what was happening in Wuhan as they knew better, I don't know but they have seemed to have done an about turn.


Whether than was time enough I don't know.

I'm working my way through this;

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/23/covid-19-special-investigation-part-one-the-politicised-science-that-nudged-the-johnson-government-to-safeguard-the-economy-over-british-lives/

[RadioGAAGAA]

According to the BBC website a few days, the Dutch are taking a herd immunity approach as part of their plans

Well, we need to be careful.

Herd immunity will become a consideration in how the lockdown is eased.

1. Lockdown throttled in severity to keep numbers admitted to hospitals within capacity of NHS.
2. As time passes, if the lockdown throttling actions were identical, numbers admitted to hospitals should drop off as immune people break more and more links in the infection transmission.
3. This means lockdown measures can be eased further in the more distant future without exceeding NHS capacity.
4. Eventually a vaccine will become available which either will go to the most vulnerable first (i.e. elderly), or go to those at greatest risk of spreading the virus (i.e. care home workers).

2, 3 & 4 all contain elements of the herd immunity philosophy.


[The problem was always with letting everyone get it almost at once as a means of obtaining herd immunity. I cannot emphasis how stupid that was. We heard Johnson say that up to 20% of the workforce could be off with it at one time. That line of thought was ridiculous.]

[Franko]

is this just lazy journalism or is there something else going on? - https://twitter.com/360_stan/status/1244575113003044865

the #emptyhospitals is also interesting on twitter. is it the calm before the storm?

It is the same in this country, the drunks and hypochondriacs have abandoned the A&E, while there are less accidents on sites, children's playgrounds etc. As mentioned on RTÉ radio this morning, they are worried that actual ill people are also not going to the doctor.

doesn't escape the fact that lots of people have lost their jobs and the world economy is in the shitter.

Yep. Although it was reported on RTÉ that Ireland would be one of the least badly affected, while still getting a dose.

No agreed, but she is peddling a line which gives the impression that many other business can and shouid close. I'm sure by now conor Murphy may have realised that HRMC need the money never mind us needing the services.

She is arguing for the same approach throughout Ireland, which is right and proper. Dampen down this virus and then you can have more business.

But it will not work. Sinn féin have yet to produce a list which they claim would be acceptable to them. Bring solutions not problems

Separated by a single sentence. 

It will not work because sf are calling for a much wider shut down. Any sensible shut down or solution will lead to a list similar to ROI which balances health and economic concerns. Michelle probably knows that, but as someone said, she is playing politics with the anti DUP or FG card

I thought we were into bringing solutions not problems?

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

is this just lazy journalism or is there something else going on? - https://twitter.com/360_stan/status/1244575113003044865

the #emptyhospitals is also interesting on twitter. is it the calm before the storm?

It is the same in this country, the drunks and hypochondriacs have abandoned the A&E, while there are less accidents on sites, children's playgrounds etc. As mentioned on RTÉ radio this morning, they are worried that actual ill people are also not going to the doctor.

doesn't escape the fact that lots of people have lost their jobs and the world economy is in the shitter.

Yep. Although it was reported on RTÉ that Ireland would be one of the least badly affected, while still getting a dose.

No agreed, but she is peddling a line which gives the impression that many other business can and shouid close. I'm sure by now conor Murphy may have realised that HRMC need the money never mind us needing the services.

She is arguing for the same approach throughout Ireland, which is right and proper. Dampen down this virus and then you can have more business.

But it will not work. Sinn féin have yet to produce a list which they claim would be acceptable to them. Bring solutions not problems

Separated by a single sentence. 

It will not work because sf are calling for a much wider shut down. Any sensible shut down or solution will lead to a list similar to ROI which balances health and economic concerns. Michelle probably knows that, but as someone said, she is playing politics with the anti DUP or FG card

I thought we were into bringing solutions not problems?

That's s my point. The solution is there as good as it can be and in place. But of course Mary lou et al still looking for further shut down. Sin é

[RadioGAAGAA]

Former World Health Organisation director Prof Karol Sikora explains why the threat from the virus should drop after the peak is reached.

"If you go to Korea tomorrow, you'll find that the majority of people have had the virus - some of them won't even know they've had the virus - but they'll still be immune to it.

"Herd immunity grows, once it gets to 50% the virus has nowhere to go.

"At the moment, a person going out onto the street has the potential to infect up to 2.5 people with the virus

"But once other people around them become immune, there's nowhere for the virus to go, so the pandemic disappears and that's always the same with pandemics.

"The difficulty is to make that judgement call about when to let social distancing relax, to allow businesses to open, to allow the economy to grow."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-northern-ireland-52069262

Could our resident experts advise whether this is dangerous and as such should the Professor be sanctioned?

Everything said is widely accepted except the bit in bold. Until there is an antibody test, the bit in bold cannot be verified and is little more than a guess.


Which means the judgement call must very much err on the side of caution - and then observe how the rate of infections reacts to the relaxation. That should give a (limited) picture of transmission and from that, guesstimates at how wide the immunity already is.

Hopefully, there is an antibody test within the month and perhaps by July we'll know where actual numbers are for those that are already immune.


I would anticipate given where we are with regards lockdown today and how close antibody tests supposedly are, there will be at least population sampling antibody testing done before significant relaxation of the lockdown.