26 County General Election 2020

Started by Snapchap, January 09, 2020, 06:52:51 PM

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What will be makeup of the next government?

FF/SD/Lab/Green
FG/SD/Lab/Green
FG/FF
FF/Green
FG/Independents
FG/Independents
FG/Green
FF/SF
FF/Green/Independents
FF Minority
FG Minority
FG/SF
FF/Lab/Green
FF/Lab
FF/Lab/Green/Independents

RadioGAAGAA

i usse an speelchekor

Eamonnca1

Quote from: Eire90 on February 12, 2020, 10:25:51 AM
whats the obssesion in ireland with owning a house.

That's been the policy in a lot of the English-speaking world. Governments have subsidized home ownership for ideological reasons, but it's backfired with a ton of perverse incentives that make housing more expensive overall.

Eamonnca1

Quote from: Hound on February 12, 2020, 04:32:04 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on February 12, 2020, 04:10:35 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on February 12, 2020, 04:01:50 PM
Brendan Howlin to resign as Labour leader. Leo Varadkar to do the same? Fine Gael had its worst election result since 1948.

Hopefully anyone but Alan Kelly to replace him.

Leo won't resign and I doubt he'll be pushed just yet anyway, maybe in the months ahead though

It's a funny one re the mechanics. Leo has to resign as Taoiseach when the Dail resumes in a week or two. But if there's no agreement on a coalition by then, then he has to stay on as Caretaker Taoiseach. And the Cabinet has to continue on as Caretaker Ministers, even though the likes of Ross and Zappone are no longer TDs. None of the caretakers are allowed to resign their posts until the new government is formed.

Technically Leo could resign as FG leader but he would still have to continue as Caretaker Taoiseach, so I couldn't see that happening.
So it's likely Leo has a good month left as leader of the country. Could all look a bit silly if it's the current crew representing Ireland at all the worldwide St Patrick's Day festivities, but it is what it is I suppose.

Do they not stay on as TDs until a government is formed and the new crop takes their seats?

armaghniac

Quote from: Eamonnca1 on February 12, 2020, 06:03:28 PM
Quote from: Hound on February 12, 2020, 04:32:04 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on February 12, 2020, 04:10:35 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on February 12, 2020, 04:01:50 PM
Brendan Howlin to resign as Labour leader. Leo Varadkar to do the same? Fine Gael had its worst election result since 1948.

Hopefully anyone but Alan Kelly to replace him.

Leo won't resign and I doubt he'll be pushed just yet anyway, maybe in the months ahead though

It's a funny one re the mechanics. Leo has to resign as Taoiseach when the Dail resumes in a week or two. But if there's no agreement on a coalition by then, then he has to stay on as Caretaker Taoiseach. And the Cabinet has to continue on as Caretaker Ministers, even though the likes of Ross and Zappone are no longer TDs. None of the caretakers are allowed to resign their posts until the new government is formed.

Technically Leo could resign as FG leader but he would still have to continue as Caretaker Taoiseach, so I couldn't see that happening.
So it's likely Leo has a good month left as leader of the country. Could all look a bit silly if it's the current crew representing Ireland at all the worldwide St Patrick's Day festivities, but it is what it is I suppose.

Do they not stay on as TDs until a government is formed and the new crop takes their seats?

The Dáil will meet on Thursday 20 February. and elect a Ceann Comhairle, which it might succeed in doing. It will then vote for a Taoiseach, which it will likely not succeed in doing. These ministers will not be TDs then.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

weareros

Quote from: armaghniac on February 12, 2020, 06:28:20 PM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on February 12, 2020, 06:03:28 PM
Quote from: Hound on February 12, 2020, 04:32:04 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on February 12, 2020, 04:10:35 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on February 12, 2020, 04:01:50 PM
Brendan Howlin to resign as Labour leader. Leo Varadkar to do the same? Fine Gael had its worst election result since 1948.

Hopefully anyone but Alan Kelly to replace him.

Leo won't resign and I doubt he'll be pushed just yet anyway, maybe in the months ahead though

It's a funny one re the mechanics. Leo has to resign as Taoiseach when the Dail resumes in a week or two. But if there's no agreement on a coalition by then, then he has to stay on as Caretaker Taoiseach. And the Cabinet has to continue on as Caretaker Ministers, even though the likes of Ross and Zappone are no longer TDs. None of the caretakers are allowed to resign their posts until the new government is formed.

Technically Leo could resign as FG leader but he would still have to continue as Caretaker Taoiseach, so I couldn't see that happening.
So it's likely Leo has a good month left as leader of the country. Could all look a bit silly if it's the current crew representing Ireland at all the worldwide St Patrick's Day festivities, but it is what it is I suppose.

Do they not stay on as TDs until a government is formed and the new crop takes their seats?

The Dáil will meet on Thursday 20 February. and elect a Ceann Comhairle, which it might succeed in doing. It will then vote for a Taoiseach, which it will likely not succeed in doing. These ministers will not be TDs then.

But they will still be ministers. All continue in their caretaker role, including Leo as caretaker Taoiseach, until a new government is formed. Technically he could be Taoiseach for many months including as Hound said the visit to the White House on St. Paddy's Day. Indeed, if there is a new election later if no gov can be formed, he could go to the country slightly more popular than he was in February and come back with the most number of seats. Stranger things have happened.

armaghniac

Quote from: weareros on February 12, 2020, 06:32:26 PM
But they will still be ministers. All continue in their caretaker role, including Leo as caretaker Taoiseach, until a new government is formed. Technically he could be Taoiseach for many months including as Hound said the visit to the White House on St. Paddy's Day. Indeed, if there is a new election later if no gov can be formed, he could go to the country slightly more popular than he was in February and come back with the most number of seats. Stranger things have happened.

Another election could see both FF and FG pick up seats.
They would have refined their manifestos and would have a right go at SF's fairytale.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

macdanger2

Labour apparently ruling themselves out of govt which seems to put the kybosh on (the already unlikely) possibility of a left wing govt.

Itchy

Quote from: armaghniac on February 12, 2020, 08:44:58 PM
Quote from: weareros on February 12, 2020, 06:32:26 PM
But they will still be ministers. All continue in their caretaker role, including Leo as caretaker Taoiseach, until a new government is formed. Technically he could be Taoiseach for many months including as Hound said the visit to the White House on St. Paddy's Day. Indeed, if there is a new election later if no gov can be formed, he could go to the country slightly more popular than he was in February and come back with the most number of seats. Stranger things have happened.

Another election could see both FF and FG pick up seats.
They would have refined their manifestos and would have a right go at SF's fairytale.

See that is pure rubbish! Have a right go? what do you think they did in this election. They got every media outlet in the country to attack SF, they dragged up a 13 year old murder case and manipulated a grieving mother to further their goals. And they still failed and if SF ran in an election tomorrow they could take another 6 or 7 seats. You clearly have a hatred of SF, that's fair enough, but you are talking total garbage there - the kitchen sink was already thrown at SF and it failed and done nothing but drive people towards them.

Itchy

Quote from: macdanger2 on February 12, 2020, 09:05:40 PM
Labour apparently ruling themselves out of govt which seems to put the kybosh on (the already unlikely) possibility of a left wing govt.

Hard to see how they can do that without a leader in place?

Eamonnca1

Quote from: armaghniac on February 12, 2020, 08:44:58 PM
Quote from: weareros on February 12, 2020, 06:32:26 PM
But they will still be ministers. All continue in their caretaker role, including Leo as caretaker Taoiseach, until a new government is formed. Technically he could be Taoiseach for many months including as Hound said the visit to the White House on St. Paddy's Day. Indeed, if there is a new election later if no gov can be formed, he could go to the country slightly more popular than he was in February and come back with the most number of seats. Stranger things have happened.

Another election could see both FF and FG pick up seats.
They would have refined their manifestos and would have a right go at SF's fairytale.

Nope. SF would be the big winners in that scenario, they'd have a better picture of how many candidates they can run. FF and FG would lose seats and SF would pick them up.

Rossfan

Who knows what would happen if after 3 or 4 months there's another Election.
I suspect SF would probably wipe out a lot of the other lefties as their no. 2s would stay " in house" rather than going to the likes of PBPites.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Aaron Boone

Quote from: Rossfan on February 12, 2020, 11:13:42 PM
Who knows what would happen if after 3 or 4 months there's another Election.
I suspect SF would probably wipe out a lot of the other lefties as their no. 2s would stay " in house" rather than going to the likes of PBPites.

Big example was O'Snodaigh's surplus in Dublin South-Central going to Brid Smith and the actress Joan Collins.

Rossfan

And the odious rich boy Murphy got elected on SF transfers.
Seems PBP didnt include Solidarity's 1 TD or Rise's 1 TD in their discussions with SF.
I'd say Marylou would have some craic trying to keep those 5 in line in a left wing Coalition ( which can't happen anyway)
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

mouview

Quote from: Itchy on February 12, 2020, 10:17:16 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 12, 2020, 08:44:58 PM
Quote from: weareros on February 12, 2020, 06:32:26 PM
But they will still be ministers. All continue in their caretaker role, including Leo as caretaker Taoiseach, until a new government is formed. Technically he could be Taoiseach for many months including as Hound said the visit to the White House on St. Paddy's Day. Indeed, if there is a new election later if no gov can be formed, he could go to the country slightly more popular than he was in February and come back with the most number of seats. Stranger things have happened.

Another election could see both FF and FG pick up seats.
They would have refined their manifestos and would have a right go at SF's fairytale.

See that is pure rubbish! Have a right go? what do you think they did in this election. They got every media outlet in the country to attack SF, they dragged up a 13 year old murder case and manipulated a grieving mother to further their goals. And they still failed and if SF ran in an election tomorrow they could take another 6 or 7 seats. You clearly have a hatred of SF, that's fair enough, but you are talking total garbage there - the kitchen sink was already thrown at SF and it failed and done nothing but drive people towards them.

Cullinane hurled the sink against the Shinners good and harder than any media outlet. These media outlets have minds of their own without doing the shilling for FF / FG. Too often they have unfairly attacked FG over the past few years, conveniently ignoring how things were 11 years ago or FG's impeccable handling of Brexit.

armaghniac

Quote from: Eamonnca1 on February 12, 2020, 11:06:43 PM
Nope. SF would be the big winners in that scenario, they'd have a better picture of how many candidates they can run. FF and FG would lose seats and SF would pick them up.

Sf transfers did not go to FG or FF, in general. They will take the seats off those elected on those transfers. They'd end up with 44 or 45, while still needing 81.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B