The Many Faces of US Politics...

[Blowitupref]

Count the votes!' and Stop the count!'  says Trump supporters.

https://mobile.twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1324371145735491586?

[armaghniac]

Down to a 120k gap in PA, but only 35k votes left in Pittsburgh's county, which are just subject to investigation.

Georgia gap down to 14k, but 98% now in.

Nailbiter.

2% of Georgia is almost 100,000. so Biden would need 60% of the vote. Some of the Atlanta suburbs have a bit to go and he has been getting that percentage.

[Gabriel_Hurl]

[gallsman]

Looks like Biden will take PA pretty handily in the end. Everything else moot.

[omochain]

I guess that would be 67 million or so votes to none.

[sid waddell]

Down to a 120k gap in PA, but only 35k votes left in Pittsburgh's county, which are just subject to investigation.

Georgia gap down to 14k, but 98% now in.

Nailbiter.

2% of Georgia is almost 100,000. so Biden would need 60% of the vote. Some of the Atlanta suburbs have a bit to go and he has been getting that percentage.

Of the 61,367 votes that were announced to be outstanding a couple of hours back (I know a small amount of votes have come in since that), we have a detailed knowledge of which counties they come from and how much from each county

If the mail in ballots broke at the exact same rates that the current total votes in the relevant counties are at, Biden would get 34,294 out of those 61,367

That would not be enough

He has to hit 39,756 out of 61,367 - I make that 64.7%

But mail in ballots are breaking disproportionately for Biden compared to the total vote

So it's doable

Not certain, but doable

[J70]

Had a few minutes to spare at lunch, so I looked at the Arizona numbers here from late last night: https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/latest-batch-trump-gets-share-votes-he-would-need-reclaim-arizona-next-rounds-present-challenges/6169183002/

Did a few calculations based on the votes reported to date and those left in each county.

Came up with 228K more for Biden, 216K more for Trump, for total of 444K.

Now the reported numbers have Biden getting 52% in Maricopa county, which apparently the Trump campaign thinks is not going to hold with these later votes, so probably a waste of ten minutes on my part.

But if the percentages did hold in each county, Biden would have it, albeit fairly narrowly.

[J70]

What are the AP, but especially, Fox News, going to do later on if things, as it looks like they will, progress to the point that Biden has Nevada?

If they call Nevada and don't retract Arizona, which they haven't yet, then that will be that, according to their decision team.

[armaghniac]

Gap now 13,540 votes in Geogria. The secretary of state said that about 50,000
But if 10,000 votes only reduced the gap by 500, then 50,000 votes might only reduce the lead by 5 x 500 = 2500.
So the detail of the counties would be very much needed to make any estimate.

[J70]

County Registrar in Vegas getting a little concerned about the safety of his family and staff.

https://twitter.com/eliza_relman/status/1324417368580304897?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1324417368580304897%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2F2020-election-results-coverage%2F

[Eamonnca1]

Nate Silver:

This sort of data is a big problem for Trump in Georgia. Even in a place like Bryan County, where Trump won by 43 points in 2016, Biden is actually winning by 15 in mail votes that were processed today. Those mail votes are just coming in very blue, sometimes even in red counties.

Jon Ralston:

Biden is up by 11.4K right now in NV.

Dems are going to win these mail ballots coming in from Election Day and yesterday -- 63K. And they should win them decisively. That leaves 60K provisionals, which have been evenly split.

I see no path left for Trump here.

[sid waddell]

Gap now 13,540 votes in Geogria. The secretary of state said that about 50,000
But if 10,000 votes only reduced the gap by 500, then 50,000 votes might only reduce the lead by 5 x 500 = 2500.
So the detail of the counties would be very much needed to make any estimate.

When it was announced a few hours ago that 61,367 votes were outstanding, the gap was 18,146

Now the gap is 13,540 with, it seems, around 50k votes left

If that's so, Biden is running ahead of where he needs to be

This tweet gives the precise breakdown of where the 61,367 votes come from:

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1324363353914036224

I make it that about 45k of the 61k come from Biden supporting counties, with around 15-16k coming from Trump supporting counties

[RedHand88]

What are the AP, but especially, Fox News, going to do later on if things, as it looks like they will, progress to the point that Biden has Nevada?

If they call Nevada and don't retract Arizona, which they haven't yet, then that will be that, according to their decision team.

Was wondering this myself. Theres no way CNN will want to haemorrhage viewers to the network that has called the election, would it prompt them to call Arizona blue?

[armaghniac]

500,000 to be counted in PA, and a gap of 114,000. So Biden would need to get 62%+ of these, if my sums are right. Very doable to get 63% on mail ins mostly in the cities.

[RedHand88]

500,000 to be counted in PA, and a gap of 114,000. So Biden would need to get 62%+ of these, if my sums are right. Very doable to get 63% on mail ins mostly in the cities.

Hes hit 75% over the last 24hours. And pennsylvania have said they could finish today. This could be over tonight.