Six County Census Results 2021

[trailer]

What do we know about the catholics who identify as N Irish ?What's the correlation with voting Alliance ?

I'd say those who vote Alliance live in staunchly unionist areas. Couldn't imagine many voting Alliance where a realistic Nationalist alternative exists.

You might think the Alliance rep is a good one. You should not be precluding from voting for a good MLA or Coumcillor on the basis that this will prevent a border poll, otherwise every election becomes even more of the them and us than at present.

I agree but this is NI. No one votes on the basis of someone being good or bad at their job.

[armaghniac]

What do we know about the catholics who identify as N Irish ?What's the correlation with voting Alliance ?

I'd say those who vote Alliance live in staunchly unionist areas. Couldn't imagine many voting Alliance where a realistic Nationalist alternative exists.

You might think the Alliance rep is a good one. You should not be precluding from voting for a good MLA or Coumcillor on the basis that this will prevent a border poll, otherwise every election becomes even more of the them and us than at present.

I agree but this is NI. No one votes on the basis of someone being good or bad at their job.

I think some Alliance voters do.

[Mario]

What do we know about the catholics who identify as N Irish ?What's the correlation with voting Alliance ?

I'd say those who vote Alliance live in staunchly unionist areas. Couldn't imagine many voting Alliance where a realistic Nationalist alternative exists.

That's definitely the case for me living in East Belfast. I wouldn't identify as Northern Irish though.

[johnnycool]

What do we know about the catholics who identify as N Irish ?What's the correlation with voting Alliance ?

I'd say those who vote Alliance live in staunchly unionist areas. Couldn't imagine many voting Alliance where a realistic Nationalist alternative exists.

That's definitely the case for me living in East Belfast. I wouldn't identify as Northern Irish though.

Same down here in Strangford, big nationalist vote would go to Alliance rather than the SDLP (who'd still get a big enough vote from the older nationalists) and SF who put up token candidates.

[From the Bunker]

Lads there are a plethora of Eastern Europeans living in the north, at a guess 35K and Catholic!

Do we count them as Catholics in this Census? It would throw the figures out by about 1.75%.

[Armagh18]

Lads there are a plethora of Eastern Europeans living in the north, at a guess 35K and Catholic!

Do we count them as Catholics in this Census? It would throw the figures out by about 1.75%.

Just need to make sure we get them voting in our favour in a border poll!

35k could be conservative!

[JPGJOHNNYG]

OK me and the lads at the kneebreakers have been looking over the census stats and it is quite clear the Union is safe.

1. 46% are brought up catholic but as mentioned above at least 5% of that are not Irish catholic ie Polish, Filipino etc and quite clearly these people will vote for the EU ,multicultural loving DUP so that's 5% for Unionism

2. There are 12% who are neither brought up as Catholic or Protestant, these people are ALL lapsed Protestants. It doesn't matter that you can tick religion none and then Protestant brought up as on the census, it is quite clear that this 12% are indeed lapsed Protestants who cant fill in a census form correctly and in no way could be anything else so another 12% for Unionism

3. 19% see themselves as Northern Irish. Northern IRISH quite clearly means you are not Irish and want nothing to do with Ireland and are therefore British so another 19% for Unionism

4. About 18% at the last election voted Alliance/Green/PBP. It doesn't matter that they transfer heavily to nationalist parties they just dont understand STV elections and ticked SF or SDLP by accident as second choice instead of TUV. That's another 18% for Unionism.

5. No real Poll has shown anything for Unity to be over 30%. Those lucid talk polls that have Unity at 45-50% and nail the assembly election results to 1% are clearly flawed. They are internet based and as good aul Sammy Wilson pointed out, most Protestants dont have access to the internet. The only poll in town of course is NILT. A poll that often has SF polling at around half of what they get at elections. This is very accurate as it accounts for the huge vote SF actually gets from the grave. The fact that it is face to face is also much better than an anonymous based internet poll. I mean how many elections do you go to and have an anonymous vote its quite clear that in the Donbass there is a nice Russian soldier over looking your shoulder to make sure you tick the right box.
I personally think the older the NILT survey you use the more accurate it is. I would recommend a copy of the 1973 version that will have support for the Union even higher

6. Castle Catholics. My accurate thumb in the wind strategy suggests that 70% of Catholics will vote to retain the Union. No Protestant will vote for a UI because they wont achieve anything down there and its not like any of them would get close to being president or anything else important for that matter.

7. Finally we must not forget about the 350000 garden centre Protestants who dont vote at elections but will come and save the union at referendum time. Its a shame all 350000 were too busy at the garden centre when the census man knocked on the door.

With all these stats I have entered them into a computer, obviously one I dont own but one I borrowed form Alex Maskey, he has 3.
The results show that for a Unity referendum to go ahead at the next census Catholics need to be at 174.56%.
I know this figure is below what Jamie and Jim want but I think it is accurate.

Ps If you see Ben tell him to stop copying my homework and putting it in his paper.

[armaghniac]

Lads there are a plethora of Eastern Europeans living in the north, at a guess 35K and Catholic!

Do we count them as Catholics in this Census? It would throw the figures out by about 1.75%.

Just need to make sure we get them voting in our favour in a border poll!

35k could be conservative!

There are 6% of people with "Other National Identities' so they could be material in a poll. At present a lot of them do not vote and cannot vote in some elections, so I expect some debate about exactly who could vote in a border poll.

[seafoid]

One of the most difficult aspects of a United Ireland will relate to choosing a national anthem

This
https://youtu.be/yK0Zqt8mXs4

Or this
https://youtu.be/8SwDo0ecEk8

[Itchy]

One of the most difficult aspects of a United Ireland will relate to choosing a national anthem

This
https://youtu.be/yK0Zqt8mXs4

Or this
https://youtu.be/8SwDo0ecEk8

You reckon that's really one of the most difficult things?