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The calling of a "Border poll" is in the hands of the Brit Sec of State if it appears to him/her there might be a majority in the North in favour of a UI.

All very vague and subjective, probably deliberately so in the context of 1998.
No guidelines or criteria laid down anywhere.
Different Secs of State will have varying ideas of what might appear to them as a majority in favour.

Possibly only come about as a result of Court proceedings taken by someone from the Nationalist community.

Yes, as I've said before this was the part of the GFA where SF/SDLP were asleep, though maybe the vagueness of this was the price for prisoner release and SF realising they would have to play the long game, who knows?  But trying to force the SoS into calling a border poll is like trying to eat soup with a fork.  There are no solid criteria.  Labour (the British version) have already said a poll won't be called during their tenure, so there's no chance before 2030.

Apart from giving sole power to the British Secretary of State (who often tends to be a thick bollocks), the agreement is clear enough on the conditions:

'Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power
under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of
those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to
be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.'

To me that is a few things.

1) Opinion polls would need to consistently start showing a majority in favour. The problem with opinion polls is that the ones the SOS tends to heed the most (eg Arins, University of Liverpool) are using biased panels and face to face interviews, which IMO undercount the UI vote. The one that captures it the most, ie LucidTalk, will only run United Ireland polls when contracted by the Belfast Telegraph. The BelTel makes headlines out of the "if a vote was held tomorrow" and ignores the aspiration vote. For example in the poll they ran in February, United Ireland led 51% to 44% if a vote was held in 15-20 years, but only at 39% if held tomorrow. No vote is going to be held tomorrow so that is just stupid.

2) Nationalist vote comfortably starts to exceed the Unionist vote. That has only happened once so far in the local elections last year. Again, the SOS tends to look more at the parliament vote, and the nationalist vote is hindered by ceding to Alliance to keep a Unionist out. While it may be good to have Sorcha Eastwood in parliament to counter the likes of Jim Allister, all I see is her taking selfies in London. SF/SDLP should stop this, and just focus on increasing the nationalist vote. The harsh reality is that it was 39% in 1998 and it is still 39%. The local election result of 44% is probably more accurate - and that is getting close.
 
3) In a Stormont vote, a majority of MLAs vote for a border poll. This would require Alliance siding with nationalism, and a way get such a vote on the agenda, and for the SOS to respect it.

Of course there's a lot of contradictions in throwing about terms like blueshirts and west Brits. The blueshirts were founded by right wing fascist Eoin O'Duffy. Eoin of course was first a Sinn Fein TD and Chief of Staff of IRA. Michael Collins considered him one of the best soldiers in the  Irish War of Independence and it was him he sent to protect Catholics in Belfast from sectarian Unionist attacks after his notable victories against the Brits. There's been plenty of claims by Mary Lou and Pearse Doherty that current Sinn Fein are 1905 Sinn Fein, the same Sinn Fein that voted 64/57 for partition then. That would make my fellow Rossie Matt Carthy heir to Eoin o'Duffy's seat. Eoin went on to help found Fine Gael before quickly leaving them because they were too "British." His final act was to help set up meetings for the IRA with the Nazis. He was a right wing Catholic nutter but he always wanted to complete some unfinished business against the Brits.

Of course part of the reason - and this won't go down well here - is that Sinn Fein constantly talk down the success of the 26 county state. To many the narrative is of a failed state. Yet one gets the sense the minute they govern for a few years in Dublin, it will suddenly be utopia, the best little country on earth. 

That's hardly unique to SF though. It's just standard politics. Any opposition seeking to be elected will criticise the job the incumbents have done. And of course you're right, as soon as they get into power everything will be rosey (even though it will hardly have changed any). Again, standard politics.

I've zero doubt that if the North voted for a UI, then the South would as well.

Agree on all that. In fact Michele O'Neill who is not trying to get elected in South talks up the better economy and wages of south while Mary Lou trying to get into gov in south lists everything wrong about it. But south will vote for unity by overwhelming majority. Won't even be close. Some say the Irish gov won't even need to hold a referendum, but they will.

I may be reading the situation wrong but it's my understanding that the only thing we have in common with the south is GAA games and even at that I believe they'd be happy enough if we disappeared. They don't want a united Ireland and are happy with the current situation, if anything they can't stand the north hence MM's comments.
Should the north be a separate country of its own away from the south and the Brits and have their own identity, I know it couldn't sustain itself and would never agree on anything but what other things are on the table to us? London would get rid of us in the morning and the south wouldn't piss on us...We're pretty much f**ked and stuck in this current situation for another few generations yet

You pretty much nailed it there.

I don't think that's the case.
In fact, polls have always shown a majority in the 26 in favour of unity.
Obviously, you don't get the same overall results in the north, but even among the 'nationalist' community, there seems to be a large element who aren't in favour of unity.
So you'd wonder what the hell DO they want?
People in the south get labelled as traitors, west brits, blueshirts, free staters etc.
If you're wondering why there's not a greater clamour for a border poll, maybe start by looking at yourselves.

Big part of the problem. In most recent census only 29% were Irish only and only goes up to 33% for Irish and Northern Irish. Now Brian Feeney makes the point that many of the 19% who say they are "Northern Irish only" are Irish who think they have to check that. But they have the option of Irish and Northern Irish only, so why not check that? Most opinion polls only show Irish unity in low 30s apart from LucidTalk which is at 39%. It's amazing given the respective states of the economies that more are not putting their hand up. The covid payments from Irish government far exceeded what Uk offered, flood payments far exceeded what UK offered, winter fuel allowances far exceed what UK offered, energy help far exceeded what UK offered. Education and employment opportunities far exceed the wee statelet. Quality of health service far exceeds NHS. Roads are better, less pollution. People live longer. So why the hesitation from the Catholic gene pool for unity and to even declare themselves Irish? Is it the lack of potato bread in the Irish breakfast? Of course part of the reason - and this won't go down well here - is that Sinn Fein constantly talk down the success of the 26 county state. To many the narrative is of a failed state. Yet one gets the sense the minute they govern for a few years in Dublin, it will suddenly be utopia, the best little country on earth. 

The FAI publish a map in a Match programme with the 6 counties a different colour and Derry labeled "Londonderry", makes me wonder why I even aspire to a United Ireland, well always just be Brits to the Free Staters

I wouldn't judge us all based on FAI. Clearly some clown grabbed a map from Google. Earlier in the year, they had to apologise to Latvia after their effort to translate the names of the Latvian u21 players. This is a grab of the program.

https://x.com/jzigajev/status/1833588673776128208?s=46&t=upCstAqzkTQY5JtOIziaYg

Players include:

Robert the Liar
Bruno the Black
Dario shit
Gleb liked it

It's not just the FAI, it's RTE, it's Micheal Martin, it's our fellow gaels when they call us Brits at matches etc

The general election thread is also grim reading. You do wonder sometimes how many people down south give a shite about people up north    You would just hope it's representative of the minority and not the majority. I am not convinced those two, non SF, major parties are all that bothered.

Depends how you look at that. A huge effort was put in by Varadkar and Coveney to keep north in EU internal market after Brexit. Ireland (26 county part) is now a net contributor to EU and is paying for the whole island. They wasn't worth one vote in 26 but is helping business and farmers in north and annoying greatly the TUV. Dublin continues to fund Erasmus for students north of border. 50 million was given to Magee, another 50 committed to Casement, 600 million going to A5, 25 million to train service from Belfast to Dublin, funding for nurses.

Yes, they are poor on outlining a plan for unity but now that south has a bit of money and clout in the world (ie Brexit negotiations), they have made some effort at last. Will never make up for 90 years of neglect, of course. And Martin's comments were a disgrace. But things are changing overall with the parties as Brian Feeney's column today outlined.

The FAI publish a map in a Match programme with the 6 counties a different colour and Derry labeled "Londonderry", makes me wonder why I even aspire to a United Ireland, well always just be Brits to the Free Staters

I wouldn't judge us all based on FAI. Clearly some clown grabbed a map from Google. Earlier in the year, they had to apologise to Latvia after their effort to translate the names of the Latvian u21 players. This is a grab of the program.

https://x.com/jzigajev/status/1833588673776128208?s=46&t=upCstAqzkTQY5JtOIziaYg

Players include:

Robert the Liar
Bruno the Black
Dario shit
Gleb liked it

Katie is still a great player. She and Denise are a cut above the rest. She's passionate. The way she fucked the lineswoman out of it as she was trying to take the corner that led to the goal typifies her. It's a flaw too because Wales targeted her, constantly tried to get a rise out of her, and she lost the cool early on. Sounds like the Irish bench and management came in for some taunting too. The Welsh were cynical and knew how to kill the game with timewasting. But overall the Irish women had very little structure in their play. They do need to bring in some foreign coaches from top tier nations, and has been said before maybe get one or two Irish-Americans to declare.

Poor stuff alright in particular to be knocked out by lower ranked team. Wales well coached by former Canadian player. Ireland too huff and puff.

Lucky not to go 2 down there.

We are now.

Lucky not to go 2 down there.

anyone have any stats on age profile of voters per party or what the general transfer patterns were

RTE did a bit on transfer patterns across the Big 3.

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2024/1201/1484115-count-data-shows-fg-and-ff-voters-gave-greens-no-reward-for-govt/

The Exit poll also had breakdown of demos. Might be off a slight bit given active they under estimated FF support and overestimated SF. Even so, SF have stronger support in younger demos.

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2024/1129/1483866-the-exit-poll-three-key-charts-to-understand-the-initial-details/

Looks like Social Democrats and Labour are leery of being subsumed by Sinn Fein in opposition. Both would have ambitions to be the largest left party in 5 years. One of the two may go into government but if in opposition their challenge will be to stand out as strong opposition as their own distinct party, versus Sinn Fein's eagerness to keep them as two smaller parties in a SF led left coalition in 5 years. That will be interesting to watch too. They were coy enough with Mary Lou's overtures.

Labour and SD's should be merged. Madness and egoes that they're not.

They'd have over 20 seats. Mayb more they they merged an put a plan in place.

I'd say FFG will look to solid, reliable Independent TD's, who they can trust. They'll give them a few crumbs from the table to keep them sweet.

A government will hardly be formed before Christmas. Looking at the transfers, serious high rates of transfers between the FFG party. But they gave very little to The Green Party. There's a moral to the story there!

The Green Party was treated terribly by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and by the voter. All 3 big parties have also scored terribly on climate policies. The Social Democrats at least want to end the nitrates derogation which if extended again will result in the continued pollution of Ireland's waterways by the over spreading of slurry and artificial fertilisers. I have sympathy for farmers coming from a farming background, but the madness needs to stop. We are in a dangerous situation now with the climate policies of the majority of parties and independent TDs in the Dail. The EU might come down hard on us, but that will lead to a lot of Brexit type of sentiment in rural Ireland.

Looks like Social Democrats and Labour are leery of being subsumed by Sinn Fein in opposition. Both would have ambitions to be the largest left party in 5 years. One of the two may go into government but if in opposition their challenge will be to stand out as strong opposition as their own distinct party, versus Sinn Fein's eagerness to keep them as two smaller parties in a SF led left coalition in 5 years. That will be interesting to watch too. They were coy enough with Mary Lou's overtures.

We always did the ham late on Christmas Eve, flavoured with cider, cloves and mustard. The Brandy butter was also made in advance (which would take its place with the plum pudding and custard for desert, and get doused again with whiskey or more brandy on Christmas Day). When young we were always told the animals were given the gift of speech for one minute at midnight, and the Da would ask if we heard the cats asking for ham (which at that stage was wafting all the over the house). Everyone was asking for ham, man and beast. Two glasses of whiskey and Christmas Cake and biscuits were left on the mantlepiece for Santa. We never thought to ask why two glasses of the good stuff. I must say that was a tradition I maintained myself. It was indeed a deserved reward at 2 or 3 in the morning.

I'd say tensions will emerge over rotating Taoiseach. FF will likely want it full term if they have 8-10 seats more. FG won't want to be FF's bridesmaid and will point that their transfers contributed to FF success as they were more disciplined in giving transfers to FF. When own parties excluded, it was at a rate 60% to 46%. It slightly opens the door to a FF-SF coalition. There will be some in FG that argue for opposition. They had a poor campaign, were punished for arrogance, poor seat management and will likely get less seats than SF despite a 2% higher first preference, and exit polls that showed them higher for second preference. Surprised there's little talk of how poorly they did in this regard. SF on other hand have performed well at constituency level despite a 6% decline at national level. Of course the 14 extra seats probably covers some things up for the 3 main parties.