Is FF gone as a party?

[seafoid]

I think people forget how weak FG were 20 years ago. They got hammered in election after election as FF mopped up. I remember 2002 when Baldy Noonan was leader. FG were annihilated .
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Irish_general_election#Results

They had no credibility because they had no governing experience. And then 7 years later FF went into meltdown and the tables turned.
The same thing could happen to FF. Politics is always about perception.

FF went from 81 to 31 in 4 years
FG went from 51 to 76 .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Irish_general_election#Results
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Irish_general_election#Results

FG have been in power for 10 years . I don't think this happened previously.

[Itchy]

Tubberman is spot on.
The North has little to do with how most in the 26 Vote.
The 14% new voters SF gained between May 19 and Feb 20 were mainly a dissatisfied 2 fingers to the establishment younger cohort.
FF are still the Builders party going by the Housing Minister's proposed new Legislation.
They may survive as the kingmakers in Coalitions if they can maintain 15 to 20 seats.

Spoken like a true closet FF voter. This is the rare breed I'm telling you about. I dare say Lar is one too. They'll publicly agree on all their ills but when they get into the voting station they'll heat their daddy and grand daddy's whispering to them to tick FF.

The younger generation dont give a shit about this tradition but the FF boys can not bring themselves to face reality and so they talk about losing votes due to protest.

Well Itchy, one more time you are barking up the wrong tree. (And that's not the first time either!)
I voted SF in the last GF.
I taught for years in Finglas and, over the years, many of my past pupils became SF activists and through some of them I got to know Dessie Ellis. Through him I got semi-friendly with MLMD and I generallly trust  her on most things. Buit I am wary of the party's republican past and when I saw the massive turnout for Storey's funeral, with no regard for Covid restrictions, I decided that SF isn't the party for me. The links to the past are still too strong.
With regard to what I have said about SF's showing in the last GF, I ivite you to point out anything I said that is incorrect. Throwing insults all aroud like a windmill in a hurricane is no substitute for cold, hard facts.

If your moral barometer is horrified by people attending a funeral good luck finding someone else to vote for. Homeless crisis, no housing for young people, golfgate it goes on and on.

Here's the windmill in action again!
I'm still waiting...give me a single instance where you say I was wrong about SF in the last GF. Can't be simpler than that.
My moral barometer isn't bothered about funerals one way or the other. But this was no ordinary funeral at no ordinary time and damn well you know it.
Just as you can't half turn off the gas or half kick someone up the hole, you can't half observe stated government safety restrictions.

I've no idea what you are asking me to point out to you, what you said about SF in the last GF? What's this about?

As for the funeral, you've just bought a load of propaganda shoved down your throat by the usual suspects. Were you similarly outraged by John Humes funeral for example, or the garda funeral. Its totally up to you who you vote for but voting because of a funeral ranks up there as one of the daftest reasons I've heard yet.

What has John Hume's funeral got to do with alll this? Sf preached one thing about Covid restrictions but on this occasion practiced something else.
This is what I said about SF in my first post:I personally like MLMD but I don't think SF is anywhere near becoming the dominant force in the republic- not yet anyway.
Coming into the last GF, they were lagging well behind in the opinion polls. They did very well because FFG was useless. "
And this is what you had to say to Rossfan:
"Spoken like a true closet FF voter. This is the rare breed I'm telling you about. I dare say Lar is one too. "
I have asked you to prove what you have to say about me. You didn't get it from what I had said about SF's current standing in the opinion polls or anywhere else.

Ok, so GF is General Election? You mean GE? No matter

It was presumptuous of me to assume you had been a former FF voter, I based it on nothing more than your history of posts and your estimated age. No more. If I was incorrect, and you have never voted FF/FG then my apologies. I am not from Glan either.

Regarding funerals, my point was that there have been many embarrassing events on COVID for almost all parties. The government parties have made a hames for more  than anyone else. Our Taoiseach offers zero leadership. We had golf gate. We had the storey funeral then which was blown up by a media who is totally in bed with FFG. So one parties slip up (for want of a better word) was blown up 10 times the level of other parties. I threw hume and garda funerals in to show just how difficult it is to control funerals of people. For whats its worth I think SF were very wrong to support that funeral. However, would I stop voting for them based on just that when all the other parties have been up to just as bad if not worse - No.

Now on Rossfan. He declines to confirm who he voted for. Well one of the independents was Denis Naughton for example. A man of FG stock. A man who was a minister and had to resign over in appropriate meetings with bidders for the national broadband plan. He came in No 2 in the polls in Roscommon/Galway. A bit like Michael Lowry, it doesnt matter to some people the calibre of who is voted in as long as they "look after" you.

[Rossfan]

It might upset Itchy and other Shinners but in a democracy people can vote in order of preference for any candidate on the ballot paper.
This applies to Roscommon/Galway as well as all other Constituencies.
Also the ballot is secret and we're under no obligation to accede to Itchy/Shinner demands (no less) to say who we gave our votes to.
Itchy getting very "Sidish" in his generalisations.

[Itchy]

It might upset Itchy and other Shinners but in a democracy people can vote in order of preference for any candidate on the ballot paper.
This applies to Roscommon/Galway as well as all other Constituencies.
Also the ballot is secret and we're under no obligation to accede to Itchy/Shinner demands (no less) to say who we gave our votes to.
Itchy getting very "Sidish" in his generalisations.

Thats all true Rossfan, I just think you are a bit of a coward not telling us. It doesnt upset me in the least, I think our democracy is one of the best their is.  Its not like I know who you are or anything. You go to fair lengths criticising other parties and posters and I suppose one way of preventing anyone shining a light on your own electoral choices is to keep them a secret. But like you say, its up to you if you want to vote No1 for an ex FG corrupt former minister and No2 for a fella who has one interest in politics and that is protecting Turf cutting.

[trailer]

Firstly I haven't read all of this thread but a few very general points as a nosey nordie.

FF come across rightly or wrongly as a fly boy party. Their TDs must be 90% male. A lot of their Politicians appear to want to be Politicians for the trappings and standing that goes with it without actually wanting to do any work. That doesn't work nowadays and it is one of the key reasons that their voter base is going to SF. SF know how to be active and be seen in the community.

They seem to be lacking real talent. Donnelly, Foley and Darragh O'Brien just don't seem up to it. Stephen Donnelly is a car crash every time he opens his mouth.

The youth in Ireland would appear to see Housing as one of the key issues in the South, yet this government stopped construction? If they are serious, like really serious about effecting real change to young peoples lives then surely this is an area they make and exception for? That just something simple that demonstrates you're on the side of the people.

SF will win a landslide next time out and who could blame people for voting for them? FF and FG have been terrible at managing certain aspects of the State. Especially housing.

FF are in real bother. If SF can drop the "Up the RA" angle and become a bit more palatable then 55 - 65 seats, maybe even more, is highly likely.

[Lar Naparka]

Firstly I haven't read all of this thread but a few very general points as a nosey nordie.

FF come across rightly or wrongly as a fly boy party. Their TDs must be 90% male. A lot of their Politicians appear to want to be Politicians for the trappings and standing that goes with it without actually wanting to do any work. That doesn't work nowadays and it is one of the key reasons that their voter base is going to SF. SF know how to be active and be seen in the community.

They seem to be lacking real talent. Donnelly, Foley and Darragh O'Brien just don't seem up to it. Stephen Donnelly is a car crash every time he opens his mouth.

The youth in Ireland would appear to see Housing as one of the key issues in the South, yet this government stopped construction? If they are serious, like really serious about effecting real change to young peoples lives then surely this is an area they make and exception for? That just something simple that demonstrates you're on the side of the people.

SF will win a landslide next time out and who could blame people for voting for them? FF and FG have been terrible at managing certain aspects of the State. Especially housing.

FF are in real bother. If SF can drop the "Up the RA" angle and become a bit more palatable then 55 - 65 seats, maybe even more, is highly likely.

+1
That's a truly excellent post. I'd only quibble with your assessment of SF's prospects at the next GE.
I'm not going by my personal views here, btw, I'm looking at the polls.
SF were taken completely by surprise with the returns of the last GE. As someone else pointed out, one of their successful candidates was on holidays on the day of the election. He, and most of the country, hadn't seen this coming. The hard fact is that  SF did extremely well by default- not on the merits of their policies.
At best, the consensus was that they'd tail in behind FF, FG in that order and a bit of a gap behind the big two.
That is going by polls and the views of political correspondents.
The Bobby Storey episode seems to have done them serious damage- this may only be short term btw. They had been trying to impress on the electorate that they had become a fully constitutional party that had severed its connections with its paramilitary roots. Then along came Bobby Storey and the party reverted to type. Again this isn't just my opinion, the polls reflected this.
How successful will they be at the next CE?
Again, it's hard to predict as we have no way of knowing what's going to happen between the present and the election. However, the party is running neck and neck with FG in current polls and have been so for sometime. (Both are around 32%.)
If that holds true going into the next GE, you would have to fancy FG finishing well ahead.
Why? Because of our Single Transferable Vote system.
SF isn't transfer friendly - a lot of their votes are "plumpers," People who plump for SF are not inclined to give their lower preference votes to any other candidates - and the same is true in reverse.  Unless SF gets a very high % of first and second preferences, they won't pick up enough third and lower preferences to stay in the race. The odds are that if a candidate is elected without reaching the quota, it won't be a SF candidate.
Another big issue is that FG and FF have well established party electoral systems in every constituency in the land. SF is still building a party structure in all electoral areas. It will be a case of waiting and seeing but going by the results of the last GE, I wouldn't bet the family silver on SF being the biggest party in the republic next time out.

[seafoid]

When was the last transformational Government that actually changed things positively for ordinary people? Lemass or the 50s one that Noel Brown was part of?
SF would be very unlikely to change things enough. They would not campaign on a mandate to purge the Dept of Finance. Labour always went into Government promising a new wayof doing things and always got horsed out of it by the Department of Finance.

[trailer]

Firstly I haven't read all of this thread but a few very general points as a nosey nordie.

FF come across rightly or wrongly as a fly boy party. Their TDs must be 90% male. A lot of their Politicians appear to want to be Politicians for the trappings and standing that goes with it without actually wanting to do any work. That doesn't work nowadays and it is one of the key reasons that their voter base is going to SF. SF know how to be active and be seen in the community.

They seem to be lacking real talent. Donnelly, Foley and Darragh O'Brien just don't seem up to it. Stephen Donnelly is a car crash every time he opens his mouth.

The youth in Ireland would appear to see Housing as one of the key issues in the South, yet this government stopped construction? If they are serious, like really serious about effecting real change to young peoples lives then surely this is an area they make and exception for? That just something simple that demonstrates you're on the side of the people.

SF will win a landslide next time out and who could blame people for voting for them? FF and FG have been terrible at managing certain aspects of the State. Especially housing.

FF are in real bother. If SF can drop the "Up the RA" angle and become a bit more palatable then 55 - 65 seats, maybe even more, is highly likely.

+1
That's a truly excellent post. I'd only quibble with your assessment of SF's prospects at the next GE.
I'm not going by my personal views here, btw, I'm looking at the polls.
SF were taken completely by surprise with the returns of the last GE. As someone else pointed out, one of their successful candidates was on holidays on the day of the election. He, and most of the country, hadn't seen this coming. The hard fact is that  SF did extremely well by default- not on the merits of their policies.
At best, the consensus was that they'd tail in behind FF, FG in that order and a bit of a gap behind the big two.
That is going by polls and the views of political correspondents.
The Bobby Storey episode seems to have done them serious damage- this may only be short term btw. They had been trying to impress on the electorate that they had become a fully constitutional party that had severed its connections with its paramilitary roots. Then along came Bobby Storey and the party reverted to type. Again this isn't just my opinion, the polls reflected this.
How successful will they be at the next CE?
Again, it's hard to predict as we have no way of knowing what's going to happen between the present and the election. However, the party is running neck and neck with FG in current polls and have been so for sometime. (Both are around 32%.)
If that holds true going into the next GE, you would have to fancy FG finishing well ahead.
Why? Because of our Single Transferable Vote system.
SF isn't transfer friendly - a lot of their votes are "plumpers," People who plump for SF are not inclined to give their lower preference votes to any other candidates - and the same is true in reverse.  Unless SF gets a very high % of first and second preferences, they won't pick up enough third and lower preferences to stay in the race. The odds are that if a candidate is elected without reaching the quota, it won't be a SF candidate.
Another big issue is that FG and FF have well established party electoral systems in every constituency in the land. SF is still building a party structure in all electoral areas. It will be a case of waiting and seeing but going by the results of the last GE, I wouldn't bet the family silver on SF being the biggest party in the republic next time out.

I think you said it clearer Lar, they aren't transfer friendly and that is what is holding them back with certain sections of the electorate. I do think a lot of people voted for them last time not because they were SF but because they weren't FF or FG.

With regards to FF and their party election systems, has it fallen into decline or is the party still strong on the ground in mobilising help?

[trailer]

When was the last transformational Government that actually changed things positively for ordinary people? Lemass or the 50s one that Noel Brown was part of?
SF would be very unlikely to change things enough. They would not campaign on a mandate to purge the Dept of Finance. Labour always went into Government promising a new wayof doing things and always got horsed out of it by the Department of Finance.

I get your point and listen I am no SF fanboy but I can see why young people do and will vote for them. If you're trying to get started in life you need a house you own so you can get married, start a family. Everything is on hold until you are safe in a house. You can't start a family if you're living with your Mother and Father or the in laws. Even renting with the threat of being fucked out at a moments notice isn't a solution. It is a problem that's getting worse not better. It's a national scandal. Are SF the answer? Probably not, but the electorate will want to find out for themselves.

[Hound]

But if you compare where we are as a country to where we were in the 40s or 50s, it's absolute proof that the economic policies of FF and FG have been very successful.

Of course they haven't got everything right, mistakes have been made, we've had the crash, some odious individuals have been involved in both parties, but overall it's the case that Ireland is now one of the best places in the world to live. That certainly wasn't the case in the 50s! There were certainly no handouts back then, everything you got was based on hard work.

Now we all have our jobs, our cars, our XBoxes, our Netflix subs, our annual holidays abroad. All our children have the opportunity to build great lives for themselves.

There seems to be a begrudgery that not everyone gets wealthy at the same rate. I might be far better off than my parents who grew up in the 50s, but some people have miles more than me, so I deserve more.

It's easy to remember and list the mistakes they've made, but we also shouldn't forget the litany of good that FF and FG have brought. It wasn't an accident. But it also shouldn't guarantee a vote if someone else has better plans for the future.

[seafoid]

When was the last transformational Government that actually changed things positively for ordinary people? Lemass or the 50s one that Noel Brown was part of?
SF would be very unlikely to change things enough. They would not campaign on a mandate to purge the Dept of Finance. Labour always went into Government promising a new wayof doing things and always got horsed out of it by the Department of Finance.

I get your point and listen I am no SF fanboy but I can see why young people do and will vote for them. If you're trying to get started in life you need a house you own so you can get married, start a family. Everything is on hold until you are safe in a house. You can't start a family if you're living with your Mother and Father or the in laws. Even renting with the threat of being fucked out at a moments notice isn't a solution. It is a problem that's getting worse not better. It's a national scandal. Are SF the answer? Probably not, but the electorate will want to find out for themselves.

Young people wouldn't be enough for a majority. House prices suit older voters. It's very messy

[Hound]

When was the last transformational Government that actually changed things positively for ordinary people? Lemass or the 50s one that Noel Brown was part of?
SF would be very unlikely to change things enough. They would not campaign on a mandate to purge the Dept of Finance. Labour always went into Government promising a new wayof doing things and always got horsed out of it by the Department of Finance.

I get your point and listen I am no SF fanboy but I can see why young people do and will vote for them. If you're trying to get started in life you need a house you own so you can get married, start a family. Everything is on hold until you are safe in a house. You can't start a family if you're living with your Mother and Father or the in laws. Even renting with the threat of being fucked out at a moments notice isn't a solution. It is a problem that's getting worse not better. It's a national scandal. Are SF the answer? Probably not, but the electorate will want to find out for themselves.

Housing is a problem in every successful city. Not easy to afford a house in Paris, NYC, LA, Vancouver, Tokyo, etc. Decentralisation plans should help. There are many places in Ireland where housing is affordable. Covid has shown you don't need to be in your place of work to do your job (for many industries, not all of course), but hopefully it's the start of something.
I know for a fact the IDA strongly encourages new investors to have their new premises outside of Dublin, but that can be a hard sell. I think they'll also be able to use the impact of Covid as a selling point that outside of Dublin can be more efficient.

[trailer]

But if you compare where we are as a country to where we were in the 40s or 50s, it's absolute proof that the economic policies of FF and FG have been very successful.

Of course they haven't got everything right, mistakes have been made, we've had the crash, some odious individuals have been involved in both parties, but overall it's the case that Ireland is now one of the best places in the world to live. That certainly wasn't the case in the 50s! There were certainly no handouts back then, everything you got was based on hard work.

Now we all have our jobs, our cars, our XBoxes, our Netflix subs, our annual holidays abroad. All our children have the opportunity to build great lives for themselves.

There seems to be a begrudgery that not everyone gets wealthy at the same rate. I might be far better off than my parents who grew up in the 50s, but some people have miles more than me, so I deserve more.

It's easy to remember and list the mistakes they've made, but we also shouldn't forget the litany of good that FF and FG have brought. It wasn't an accident. But it also shouldn't guarantee a vote if someone else has better plans for the future.

By and large every country is better now than the 40s or 50s. Look there was certainly a lot of good work done by FF and FG down the years I am not denying that but like you said that doesn't guarantee a vote today. FF are finding that out. FF also lack real talent.
For sure housing is a problem everywhere but a Republic should guarantee it's people housing.

[Lar Naparka]

Firstly I haven't read all of this thread but a few very general points as a nosey nordie.

FF come across rightly or wrongly as a fly boy party. Their TDs must be 90% male. A lot of their Politicians appear to want to be Politicians for the trappings and standing that goes with it without actually wanting to do any work. That doesn't work nowadays and it is one of the key reasons that their voter base is going to SF. SF know how to be active and be seen in the community.

They seem to be lacking real talent. Donnelly, Foley and Darragh O'Brien just don't seem up to it. Stephen Donnelly is a car crash every time he opens his mouth.

The youth in Ireland would appear to see Housing as one of the key issues in the South, yet this government stopped construction? If they are serious, like really serious about effecting real change to young peoples lives then surely this is an area they make and exception for? That just something simple that demonstrates you're on the side of the people.

SF will win a landslide next time out and who could blame people for voting for them? FF and FG have been terrible at managing certain aspects of the State. Especially housing.

FF are in real bother. If SF can drop the "Up the RA" angle and become a bit more palatable then 55 - 65 seats, maybe even more, is highly likely.

+1
That's a truly excellent post. I'd only quibble with your assessment of SF's prospects at the next GE.
I'm not going by my personal views here, btw, I'm looking at the polls.
SF were taken completely by surprise with the returns of the last GE. As someone else pointed out, one of their successful candidates was on holidays on the day of the election. He, and most of the country, hadn't seen this coming. The hard fact is that  SF did extremely well by default- not on the merits of their policies.
At best, the consensus was that they'd tail in behind FF, FG in that order and a bit of a gap behind the big two.
That is going by polls and the views of political correspondents.
The Bobby Storey episode seems to have done them serious damage- this may only be short term btw. They had been trying to impress on the electorate that they had become a fully constitutional party that had severed its connections with its paramilitary roots. Then along came Bobby Storey and the party reverted to type. Again this isn't just my opinion, the polls reflected this.
How successful will they be at the next CE?
Again, it's hard to predict as we have no way of knowing what's going to happen between the present and the election. However, the party is running neck and neck with FG in current polls and have been so for sometime. (Both are around 32%.)
If that holds true going into the next GE, you would have to fancy FG finishing well ahead.
Why? Because of our Single Transferable Vote system.
SF isn't transfer friendly - a lot of their votes are "plumpers," People who plump for SF are not inclined to give their lower preference votes to any other candidates - and the same is true in reverse.  Unless SF gets a very high % of first and second preferences, they won't pick up enough third and lower preferences to stay in the race. The odds are that if a candidate is elected without reaching the quota, it won't be a SF candidate.
Another big issue is that FG and FF have well established party electoral systems in every constituency in the land. SF is still building a party structure in all electoral areas. It will be a case of waiting and seeing but going by the results of the last GE, I wouldn't bet the family silver on SF being the biggest party in the republic next time out.

I think you said it clearer Lar, they aren't transfer friendly and that is what is holding them back with certain sections of the electorate. I do think a lot of people voted for them last time not because they were SF but because they weren't FF or FG.

With regards to FF and their party election systems, has it fallen into decline or is the party still strong on the ground in mobilising help?

I think having sound party internal structures are very important. Coming upp tp an election means a party can crank into gear at a moment's notice. Printers will be waiting to lash out posters, handbills and billboards.  Cars will be on  standby for polling day. The constituency will be organised into cumann districts to fine tune activities on the ground. Canvassers will know in advance where they are likely to get votes and where they'll get doors shut in their faces.
All in all, FF and FG will have their campaigning well-tuned and ready to move when an election is called.
On the other hand, old habits may be changing and the probability that voters will invariably vote the way their parents did may not be 100% true any more. Still, the grunt work will be easier for those who are more experienced at campaigning on the hoof.
What Hound says about the achievements of FF and FG in the past is very true but we are discussing current events.  I get the impression that FG are more aware of the need for a new image and a set of policies but only time will tell.

[Rossfan]

I expect when the FG Taoiseach replaces MM end of 2022 that FF will be hoping sone issue will arise that they can jump ship on and hope to gain votes on it.
Of course they may have to have a leadership contest first.
SF will no doubt appeal to all lefty voters to transfer to them only in the next GE.
Probably the best thing any FF Government did was free secondary education back in the 60s.
Also getting away from the £sterling.