6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Anybody got a prediction by constituency for this election? Or a link to anybody who does these?

https://vote-2012.proboards.com/board/174/northern-ireland-assembly-2022

[Farrandeelin]

Anybody got a prediction by constituency for this election? Or a link to anybody who does these?

https://vote-2012.proboards.com/board/174/northern-ireland-assembly-2022

Thanks, I'll have a look later on.

[pjm]

Anybody got a prediction by constituency for this election? Or a link to anybody who does these?

There are a series of reports by constituency on slugger

[Sportacus]

Lucid Talk have published where their poll indicates transfers will go.  Three quarters from TUV would go to DUP.  No surprise, I thought it might be higher, but that will get 2 or 3 DUP candidates over the line.
What's really interesting is to see over 50% of Alliance transfers would go to SF and SDLP.  Alliance seem to have attracted a lot of nationalist voters.  A few years ago we would have dismissed them as posh Unionists.

[LeoMc]

STV is the vote until you boke method

This

Your vote will transfer whether you indicate a preference or not.

[LeoMc]

From my understanding....

Imagine a 5 seat constituency where SF manage their vote almost perfectly. The threshold is 5000 votes and the 3 candidates all get elected on the first vote.
Candidate 1 has 5000 votes. No excess to transfer.
Candidate 2 has 5100 votes, 100 to transfer. All 5100 votes are reviewed for next preference but 5496 votes did not express a preference beyond those first 3. 4 voters did, 2 to SDLP and 2 to Alliance. In this case the 100 votes will be allocate 50 to SDLP and 50 to Alliance.
Candidate 3 has 6000 votes. 1000 to transfer. Again the majority did not vote beyond the first 3, 2 people had SDLP at 4 and similarly 2 went with Alliance. However there was 1 family of 4 gave a 4th preference to the local TUV man. A personal vote, he came to the Fathers wake and he milked the cows when the daughter go married.
Those 1000 votes would go 500 to TUV, 250 to SDLP and 250 to Alliance.

If you care what your votes does go down the list.

[HiMucker]

Unionists have always seemed to be a bit wiser to this than nationalists. Anyone plumping for one party is a tool

Yeah a lot of people don't realise that you can vote all the way down I think.

Big time. We were chatting about this the other week in the house, and only my da and one of my older brothers knew to do or that you could vote more than 3. The rest all intelligent people but hadn't a clue about it. Same amongst the mates.. Might also go somewhat to explaining that stat about sf voters being the least likely to transfer. Should political reps be explaining that better?

[Armagh18]

From my understanding....

Imagine a 5 seat constituency where SF manage their vote almost perfectly. The threshold is 5000 votes and the 3 candidates all get elected on the first vote.
Candidate 1 has 5000 votes. No excess to transfer.
Candidate 2 has 5100 votes, 100 to transfer. All 5100 votes are reviewed for next preference but 5496 votes did not express a preference beyond those first 3. 4 voters did, 2 to SDLP and 2 to Alliance. In this case the 100 votes will be allocate 50 to SDLP and 50 to Alliance.
Candidate 3 has 6000 votes. 1000 to transfer. Again the majority did not vote beyond the first 3, 2 people had SDLP at 4 and similarly 2 went with Alliance. However there was 1 family of 4 gave a 4th preference to the local TUV man. A personal vote, he came to the Fathers wake and he milked the cows when the daughter go married.
Those 1000 votes would go 500 to TUV, 250 to SDLP and 250 to Alliance.

If you care what your votes does go down the list.

didnt know that at all. Thought if you didnt indicate a preference for a candidate your vote didnt go to them regardless

[LeoMc]

It is why you see those strange stats like eg 5% of TUV votes going to PBP or SF to DUP during reallocation

[trailer]

Unionists have always seemed to be a bit wiser to this than nationalists. Anyone plumping for one party is a tool

Yeah a lot of people don't realise that you can vote all the way down I think.

Big time. We were chatting about this the other week in the house, and only my da and one of my older brothers knew to do or that you could vote more than 3. The rest all intelligent people but hadn't a clue about it. Same amongst the mates.. Might also go somewhat to explaining that stat about sf voters being the least likely to transfer. Should political reps be explaining that better?

SF don't want you to transfer. They don't want the scrutiny from another Nationalist party. Look through the posts here and all you see the SF mafia say is "all the SDLP do is attack us"

TIME FOR REAL CHANGE JUST NOT US WHO VE BEEN IN POWER FOR 15 YEARS!

[dec]

Unionists have always seemed to be a bit wiser to this than nationalists. Anyone plumping for one party is a tool

Yeah a lot of people don't realise that you can vote all the way down I think.

I always voted all the way down. In one of the European elections I took great pleasure in giving Ian Paisley my last preference.

[dec]

From my understanding....

Imagine a 5 seat constituency where SF manage their vote almost perfectly. The threshold is 5000 votes and the 3 candidates all get elected on the first vote.
Candidate 1 has 5000 votes. No excess to transfer.
Candidate 2 has 5100 votes, 100 to transfer. All 5100 votes are reviewed for next preference but 5496 votes did not express a preference beyond those first 3. 4 voters did, 2 to SDLP and 2 to Alliance. In this case the 100 votes will be allocate 50 to SDLP and 50 to Alliance.
Candidate 3 has 6000 votes. 1000 to transfer. Again the majority did not vote beyond the first 3, 2 people had SDLP at 4 and similarly 2 went with Alliance. However there was 1 family of 4 gave a 4th preference to the local TUV man. A personal vote, he came to the Fathers wake and he milked the cows when the daughter go married.
Those 1000 votes would go 500 to TUV, 250 to SDLP and 250 to Alliance.

If you care what your votes does go down the list.

No that is incorrect

If only 4 out of 5100 express a preference then each of those 4 will be worth (4/5100) x 100 and only a very small fraction of a vote will transfer.

[Feckitt]

From my understanding....

Imagine a 5 seat constituency where SF manage their vote almost perfectly. The threshold is 5000 votes and the 3 candidates all get elected on the first vote.
Candidate 1 has 5000 votes. No excess to transfer.
Candidate 2 has 5100 votes, 100 to transfer. All 5100 votes are reviewed for next preference but 5496 votes did not express a preference beyond those first 3. 4 voters did, 2 to SDLP and 2 to Alliance. In this case the 100 votes will be allocate 50 to SDLP and 50 to Alliance.
Candidate 3 has 6000 votes. 1000 to transfer. Again the majority did not vote beyond the first 3, 2 people had SDLP at 4 and similarly 2 went with Alliance. However there was 1 family of 4 gave a 4th preference to the local TUV man. A personal vote, he came to the Fathers wake and he milked the cows when the daughter go married.
Those 1000 votes would go 500 to TUV, 250 to SDLP and 250 to Alliance.

If you care what your votes does go down the list.

This is totally incorrect.  It is nowhere near as complicated as that.

But his point is valid, in that you should vote until you boke.

[LeoMc]

I take your point about the fractional values and I will put my hands up if I am wrong but it is something that was flagged up recently by Richard Bullick as an anomaly where non transferable votes were actually transferred.
https://twitter.com/richardbullick1/status/1513857016531492871?s=21

[trueblue1234]

Unionists have always seemed to be a bit wiser to this than nationalists. Anyone plumping for one party is a tool

Yeah a lot of people don't realise that you can vote all the way down I think.

Big time. We were chatting about this the other week in the house, and only my da and one of my older brothers knew to do or that you could vote more than 3. The rest all intelligent people but hadn't a clue about it. Same amongst the mates.. Might also go somewhat to explaining that stat about sf voters being the least likely to transfer. Should political reps be explaining that better?

SF don't want you to transfer. They don't want the scrutiny from another Nationalist party. Look through the posts here and all you see the SF mafia say is "all the SDLP do is attack us"

TIME FOR REAL CHANGE JUST NOT US WHO VE BEEN IN POWER FOR 15 YEARS!

SDLP shouldn't be focusing on SF. It would be hard to look past a party that stopped Brexit and delivered Casement.