6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[johnnycool]

Jeffrey telling BBC The View that he didn't pull down the Executive.  Right, ok then.

And in the following breathe telling Carruthers that he showed decisive leadership by actually pulling down the Executive.

Neither of the two Unionist commentators after it felt he or the DUP were in a good position coming into the election and could lose votes to both the DUP and the UUP..

Either way Jeffrey will sulk off back to London with the more high brow clientele there.

[Sportacus]

DUP are floundering but I think they will gain votes next week as some Unionist voters take last minute cold feet at the prospect of SF winning, and they'll transfer well from the TUV, so it won't be a wipeout for them.

[marty34]

DUP are floundering but I think they will gain votes next week as some Unionist voters take last minute cold feet at the prospect of SF winning, and they'll transfer well from the TUV, so it won't be a wipeout for them.

I agree.  I think they'll get enough transfers for the TUV and the UUP to a certain extent to keep their 4th and 5 th seats in marginal areas.

Be interesting to see how they do in south Down, and Foyle and Strangford.

Ironically enough for alk the years the were saying vote DUP to keep a,SF fm out, this is actually the year where this could really be true. 

Conversely not as much talk feom the nationalist side regarding a first nationalist fm - which is significant in itself and shows how much things have changed.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

New lucid talk poll results out. SDLP vote just isn't improving. Doesn't look great for nationalism at around 36-40% hoping for a border poll. The most interesting stat is the second preference votes of Alliance voters which are overwhelming in favour of nationalist parties about 55% to 18% unionist. So as mentioned before the alliance surge certainly Isn't disillusioned Unionists but rather those from the nationalist background and would help explain why despite 20yrs of demographic change the nationalist vote has remained at around 40%.

[Armagh18]

New lucid talk poll results out. SDLP vote just isn't improving. Doesn't look great for nationalism at around 36-40% hoping for a border poll. The most interesting stat is the second preference votes of Alliance voters which are overwhelming in favour of nationalist parties about 55% to 18% unionist. So as mentioned before the alliance surge certainly Isn't disillusioned Unionists but rather those from the nationalist background and would help explain why despite 20yrs of demographic change the nationalist vote has remained at around 40%.

Be interesting to see what way those Alliance voters who transfer nationalist would vote in a border poll. If you're getting most of them voting in favour you're flying. Out of interest, if 55% of Alliance transfer Nationalist and 18% transfer Unionist, where are the rest going?

[JPGJOHNNYG]

The rest are going to greens etc or to no-one. The greens also transfer heavily in Favour of nationalist parties 40%- 18% unionist

[Rossfan]

Don't knows???
Does anyone know what percentage of actual votes only go to 1 Party with no preferences for anyone else??

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Don't knows???
Does anyone know what percentage of actual votes only go to 1 Party with no preferences for anyone else??

SF voters are the most likely to transfer to no-one at 17% which is crazy.

More stats here

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/northern-ireland-assembly-election-2022/sinn-fein-remain-on-course-to-land-first-minister-position-in-latest-lucidtalk-poll-41598340.html

[JPGJOHNNYG]

These results also look more believable than the Liverpool university toilet paper poll which had at the breakdown people voting TUV 1 and SF 2 among other ludicrous findings.

[Armagh18]

Don't knows???
Does anyone know what percentage of actual votes only go to 1 Party with no preferences for anyone else??

SF voters are the most likely to transfer to no-one at 17% which is crazy.

More stats here

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/northern-ireland-assembly-election-2022/sinn-fein-remain-on-course-to-land-first-minister-position-in-latest-lucidtalk-poll-41598340.html

Daft, always say you should vote right down the ballot sheet as many as you can. Will probably give 4th preference to Malone, then either Alliance or McNulty.

[imtommygunn]

Yeah my objective is usually to vote for who I want to and then make sure the  TUV and DUP get nothing from me and everyone else is prioritised over them.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

STV is the vote until you boke method

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Unionists have always seemed to be a bit wiser to this than nationalists. Anyone plumping for one party is a tool

[ardtole]

New lucid talk poll results out. SDLP vote just isn't improving. Doesn't look great for nationalism at around 36-40% hoping for a border poll. The most interesting stat is the second preference votes of Alliance voters which are overwhelming in favour of nationalist parties about 55% to 18% unionist. So as mentioned before the alliance surge certainly Isn't disillusioned Unionists but rather those from the nationalist background and would help explain why despite 20yrs of demographic change the nationalist vote has remained at around 40%.

Be interesting to see what way those Alliance voters who transfer nationalist would vote in a border poll. If you're getting most of them voting in favour you're flying. Out of interest, if 55% of Alliance transfer Nationalist and 18% transfer Unionist, where are the rest going?

Probably Green, followed by independent, maybe pbp. Id guess a signifigant section of alliance vote is to get away from tribal voting and out of principal dont transfer to the main parties. Only a guess though.

[screenexile]