6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

For what reason? Abortion?

I know of 2 older relatives who always voted Sinn Fein but said never again after the abortion issue. however they had never heard of Aontu and there are bound to be more like them. therefore if Aontu were to get their act together over the coming weeks they might do better than people think.

I know of a few people as well but they changed their stance straight away i.e. a few years ago and went with Aonytú ever since. Older people obviously but conversely young people new to voting will cancel that out I'd say.

Anybody voting Aontú for that one issue, should by extension, be giving a preference to the DUP and TUV etc..

PBP seem to be city based and be interesting to see how Gerry Carroll goes in WB and Fergusion in NB. I think they were for Brexit but never seem to be questioned on it.

The 4th and 5th seat in a lot of areas will be interesting. I think the DUP, as time goes along towards the election, will do grand. They've cut back on their seat numbers as such.

Not many doing that, the constitutional question is still important.

[marty34]

Sectarian politics. Stupid eejits voting for these gobshites

Do you not support Aontu?

How will they do?  The TUV of the green side?

With Toibín, like Jim Allister, they seem to be a one man band. They haven't really progressed and polling very low in the opinion polls recently. 

Big election for them but they're not getting their message across or maybe people not interested in their right wing type politics.

Watch this space.

With regards Mid Ulster they got 8% in Carntogher in 2019.
Dan Kerr in Torrent got nearly 17%, costing SF a council seat. He is not Aontú of course but I believe alot of that vote will go to Aontú this time as the pro-life lobby will have nowhere else to go to give SF a bloody nose. These numbers will need to be improved to get a seat but I think they may be closer than what alot of people think.

Haven't looked at other constituencies yet so couldn't comment.

I will say I have been talking to people who voted SF their whole life who are voting Aontú this time.

All this is good but not showing in the opinion polls so far. You'd think it'd show up. Is Kerr not an independent republican? So it it not more of an anti SF vote moreso than a pro Aontú vote? 

Has Aontú's time come and gone?  Obviously they might pick up a council seat or two here and there  but it's a slow build.

I'm nearly sure Kerr was openly pro life last time out. He won 17% in Michelle Oneills electoral ward which is impressive.

Haven't seen much electioneering by the Aontú candidate in mid ulster though.

Tóibín claims their membership has doubled in the north in recent weeks. Who knows.

I find it strange that they double their membership a few weeks before an election. They've been about this past 3 or 4 years now.

Really standing on one issue.

[trueblue1234]

For what reason? Abortion?

I know of 2 older relatives who always voted Sinn Fein but said never again after the abortion issue. however they had never heard of Aontu and there are bound to be more like them. therefore if Aontu were to get their act together over the coming weeks they might do better than people think.

I know of a few people as well but they changed their stance straight away i.e. a few years ago and went with Aonytú ever since. Older people obviously but conversely young people new to voting will cancel that out I'd say.

Anybody voting Aontú for that one issue, should by extension, be giving a preference to the DUP and TUV etc..

PBP seem to be city based and be interesting to see how Gerry Carroll goes in WB and Fergusion in NB. I think they were for Brexit but never seem to be questioned on it.

The 4th and 5th seat in a lot of areas will be interesting. I think the DUP, as time goes along towards the election, will do grand. They've cut back on their seat numbers as such.

Not many doing that, the constitutional question is still important.

Would that not make them part of the sectarian headcount as well then as much as anyone voting SF or DUP if the constitutional question trumps policy?
From the polls recently it doesn't look like many are leaving SF. Unless they are being replaced by new SF voters. But I think the more likely is that SF are holding the majority of their voter base. Next few weeks will be interesting but I can't see anything other than a SF FM (Whether they'll get a chance to take up that position is another thing). And I think that's a bad reflection on DUP in comparison who have fallen badly in the polls. Their mis-management was always going to have an impact given the scale of it this time. They are losing voters from either end of the unionist spectrum.

[marty34]

Aontú are doing better south of border so far, up to 3%. , ahead of PBP(Brexiteers-AI party btw) and same as greens in latest poll. We have a lot of work to do north due to the battle SF v DUP

I'd say Aontú's boat has sailed in the 26 counties - it's a totally changed place this past 20 years. As can be seen from repeal and the lack of influence of the CC. Times have changed.

[marty34]

For what reason? Abortion?

I know of 2 older relatives who always voted Sinn Fein but said never again after the abortion issue. however they had never heard of Aontu and there are bound to be more like them. therefore if Aontu were to get their act together over the coming weeks they might do better than people think.

I know of a few people as well but they changed their stance straight away i.e. a few years ago and went with Aonytú ever since. Older people obviously but conversely young people new to voting will cancel that out I'd say.

Anybody voting Aontú for that one issue, should by extension, be giving a preference to the DUP and TUV etc..

PBP seem to be city based and be interesting to see how Gerry Carroll goes in WB and Fergusion in NB. I think they were for Brexit but never seem to be questioned on it.

The 4th and 5th seat in a lot of areas will be interesting. I think the DUP, as time goes along towards the election, will do grand. They've cut back on their seat numbers as such.

Not many doing that, the constitutional question is still important.

Ah, come on! That's the only reason. Are you for real?

Just take a quick glance through the last few pages re: Aontù. It's the only issue.

[HiMucker]

Aontú are doing better south of border so far, up to 3%. , ahead of PBP(Brexiteers-AI party btw) and same as greens in latest poll. We have a lot of work to do north due to the battle SF v DUP

Fear other than the abortion stance, where does Aontú differ from SF regarding policy?

[marty34]

Aontú are doing better south of border so far, up to 3%. , ahead of PBP(Brexiteers-AI party btw) and same as greens in latest poll. We have a lot of work to do north due to the battle SF v DUP

Fear other than the abortion stance, where does Aontú differ from SF regarding policy?

Aontú consistently on 2%.

[lenny]

Aontú are doing better south of border so far, up to 3%. , ahead of PBP(Brexiteers-AI party btw) and same as greens in latest poll. We have a lot of work to do north due to the battle SF v DUP

Fear other than the abortion stance, where does Aontú differ from SF regarding policy?

I know a couple of Aontu supporters. They're completely single issue ie abortion. They're both completely nuts and vulnerable to all sorts of Qanon conspiracy theories. Not sure if that's in any way representative of Aontu supporters in general. It's a wasted vote in my opinion.

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

Aontú are doing better south of border so far, up to 3%. , ahead of PBP(Brexiteers-AI party btw) and same as greens in latest poll. We have a lot of work to do north due to the battle SF v DUP

Fear other than the abortion stance, where does Aontú differ from SF regarding policy?

Why does that matter? Other than Westminster how does SF differ from SDLP

[seafoid]

Aontú are doing better south of border so far, up to 3%. , ahead of PBP(Brexiteers-AI party btw) and same as greens in latest poll. We have a lot of work to do north due to the battle SF v DUP

Fear other than the abortion stance, where does Aontú differ from SF regarding policy?

Why does that matter? Other than Westminster how does SF differ from SDLP

SDLP tend to have better quality control.

[HiMucker]

Aontú are doing better south of border so far, up to 3%. , ahead of PBP(Brexiteers-AI party btw) and same as greens in latest poll. We have a lot of work to do north due to the battle SF v DUP

Fear other than the abortion stance, where does Aontú differ from SF regarding policy?

Why does that matter? Other than Westminster how does SF differ from SDLP

Well I thought it would matter quite a lot for a party trying to win voters over from another. I asked you as I was genuinely interested to know, and I thought from your post above you were more than just a voter and an active party member and would be able to tell me of any policy differences.
Regards your point about the SDLP and SF, I would see the SDLP as more light touch with regards to the constitutional question. SDLP ones might argue against that but that's how I see it as a voter. They are probably a bit more torwards the centre on other issues than SF as well.

[Eire90]

dup putting the protocol before people starving to death.

[clarshack]

Aontú are doing better south of border so far, up to 3%. , ahead of PBP(Brexiteers-AI party btw) and same as greens in latest poll. We have a lot of work to do north due to the battle SF v DUP

I'd say Aontú's boat has sailed in the 26 counties - it's a totally changed place this past 20 years. As can be seen from repeal and the lack of influence of the CC. Times have changed.

And not for the better.

[Mikhail Prokhorov]

anti-abortion religious nuts 

get your own house in order comes to mind 

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

Aontú are doing better south of border so far, up to 3%. , ahead of PBP(Brexiteers-AI party btw) and same as greens in latest poll. We have a lot of work to do north due to the battle SF v DUP

Fear other than the abortion stance, where does Aontú differ from SF regarding policy?

Why does that matter? Other than Westminster how does SF differ from SDLP

Well I thought it would matter quite a lot for a party trying to win voters over from another. I asked you as I was genuinely interested to know, and I thought from your post above you were more than just a voter and an active party member and would be able to tell me of any policy differences.
Regards your point about the SDLP and SF, I would see the SDLP as more light touch with regards to the constitutional question. SDLP ones might argue against that but that's how I see it as a voter. They are probably a bit more torwards the centre on other issues than SF as well.

Apologies if I picked you up wrong usually everything loaded in here.

To use your language we aren't as light as SF on our approach to Britain  . We won't be inviting the commanding officer of the paras for handshakes anytime soon.
We won't be infiltrating every community organization and bleeding them dry through fraud, nepotism and greed.
We won't be protecting sex abusers and shipping boys off to Dubai as security guards, we won't bending our knees at free Derry corner for every woke cause going. We won't be blasting coke flat out. The list is endless

But that's just ethics and culture. On policy we are of course very similar, but nothing wrong with that , I'll take a more ethical , trustworthy version of SF with few tweaks any day of the week