6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

Started by Snapchap, February 23, 2022, 10:18:43 AM

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Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

Quote from: Man Marker on April 05, 2022, 12:08:49 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on April 05, 2022, 12:01:36 PM
Quote from: marty34 on April 05, 2022, 11:28:38 AM
Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 10:30:55 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 04, 2022, 07:04:49 PM
Sectarian politics. Stupid eejits voting for these gobshites
Do you not support Aontu?

How will they do?  The TUV of the green side?

With Toibín, like Jim Allister, they seem to be a one man band. They haven't really progressed and polling very low in the opinion polls recently. 

Big election for them but they're not getting their message across or maybe people not interested in their right wing type politics.

Watch this space.

With regards Mid Ulster they got 8% in Carntogher in 2019.
Dan Kerr in Torrent got nearly 17%, costing SF a council seat. He is not Aontú of course but I believe alot of that vote will go to Aontú this time as the pro-life lobby will have nowhere else to go to give SF a bloody nose. These numbers will need to be improved to get a seat but I think they may be closer than what alot of people think.

Haven't looked at other constituencies yet so couldn't comment.

I will say I have been talking to people who voted SF their whole life who are voting Aontú this time.

agreed we will.

Aontú Abú

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 10:30:55 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 04, 2022, 07:04:49 PM
Sectarian politics. Stupid eejits voting for these gobshites
Do you not support Aontu?

Yes. Proving my point for me there lad, i am prepared to vote on principle and policy rather than "to make sure we get FM and they dont"










"

RedHand88

Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 12:07:33 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on April 05, 2022, 12:01:36 PM
Quote from: marty34 on April 05, 2022, 11:28:38 AM
Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 10:30:55 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 04, 2022, 07:04:49 PM
Sectarian politics. Stupid eejits voting for these gobshites
Do you not support Aontu?

How will they do?  The TUV of the green side?

With Toibín, like Jim Allister, they seem to be a one man band. They haven't really progressed and polling very low in the opinion polls recently. 

Big election for them but they're not getting their message across or maybe people not interested in their right wing type politics.

Watch this space.

With regards Mid Ulster they got 8% in Carntogher in 2019.
Dan Kerr in Torrent got nearly 17%, costing SF a council seat. He is not Aontú of course but I believe alot of that vote will go to Aontú this time as the pro-life lobby will have nowhere else to go to give SF a bloody nose. These numbers will need to be improved to get a seat but I think they may be closer than what alot of people think.

Haven't looked at other constituencies yet so couldn't comment.

I will say I have been talking to people who voted SF their whole life who are voting Aontú this time.
For what reason? Abortion?

Mostly over the very liberal abortion framework in place in the North that was cheered on by SF. Moves like that might play well in Belfast and Dublin but not in rural areas.

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

Quote from: marty34 on April 05, 2022, 11:28:38 AM
Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 10:30:55 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 04, 2022, 07:04:49 PM
Sectarian politics. Stupid eejits voting for these gobshites
Do you not support Aontu?

How will they do?  The TUV of the green side?

With Toibín, like Jim Allister, they seem to be a one man band. They haven't really progressed and polling very low in the opinion polls recently. 

Big election for them but they're not getting their message across or maybe people not interested in their right wing type politics.

Really? Do people in this country actually understand difference between right and left

RedHand88

Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 05, 2022, 12:26:17 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 10:30:55 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 04, 2022, 07:04:49 PM
Sectarian politics. Stupid eejits voting for these gobshites
Do you not support Aontu?

Yes. Proving my point for me there lad, i am prepared to vote on principle and policy rather than "to make sure we get FM and they dont"

SF could get 50 seats and they won't get the FM role because there is not a chance in hell of Unionists electing a deputy. The house of cards falls and then who knows what happens next.

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

Quote from: RedHand88 on April 05, 2022, 12:29:31 PM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 05, 2022, 12:26:17 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 10:30:55 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 04, 2022, 07:04:49 PM
Sectarian politics. Stupid eejits voting for these gobshites
Do you not support Aontu?

Yes. Proving my point for me there lad, i am prepared to vote on principle and policy rather than "to make sure we get FM and they dont"

SF could get 50 seats and they won't get the FM role because there is not a chance in hell of Unionists electing a deputy. The house of cards falls and then who knows what happens next.

Very possible

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

Quote from: RedHand88 on April 05, 2022, 12:27:59 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 12:07:33 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on April 05, 2022, 12:01:36 PM
Quote from: marty34 on April 05, 2022, 11:28:38 AM
Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 10:30:55 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 04, 2022, 07:04:49 PM
Sectarian politics. Stupid eejits voting for these gobshites
Do you not support Aontu?

How will they do?  The TUV of the green side?

With Toibín, like Jim Allister, they seem to be a one man band. They haven't really progressed and polling very low in the opinion polls recently. 

Big election for them but they're not getting their message across or maybe people not interested in their right wing type politics.

Watch this space.

With regards Mid Ulster they got 8% in Carntogher in 2019.
Dan Kerr in Torrent got nearly 17%, costing SF a council seat. He is not Aontú of course but I believe alot of that vote will go to Aontú this time as the pro-life lobby will have nowhere else to go to give SF a bloody nose. These numbers will need to be improved to get a seat but I think they may be closer than what alot of people think.

Haven't looked at other constituencies yet so couldn't comment.

I will say I have been talking to people who voted SF their whole life who are voting Aontú this time.
For what reason? Abortion?

Mostly over the very liberal abortion framework in place in the North that was cheered on by SF. Moves like that might play well in Belfast and Dublin but not in rural areas.

Further west you go in Ulster more people are  turned off it

Armagh18

Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 05, 2022, 12:32:28 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on April 05, 2022, 12:27:59 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 12:07:33 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on April 05, 2022, 12:01:36 PM
Quote from: marty34 on April 05, 2022, 11:28:38 AM
Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 10:30:55 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 04, 2022, 07:04:49 PM
Sectarian politics. Stupid eejits voting for these gobshites
Do you not support Aontu?

How will they do?  The TUV of the green side?

With Toibín, like Jim Allister, they seem to be a one man band. They haven't really progressed and polling very low in the opinion polls recently. 

Big election for them but they're not getting their message across or maybe people not interested in their right wing type politics.

Watch this space.

With regards Mid Ulster they got 8% in Carntogher in 2019.
Dan Kerr in Torrent got nearly 17%, costing SF a council seat. He is not Aontú of course but I believe alot of that vote will go to Aontú this time as the pro-life lobby will have nowhere else to go to give SF a bloody nose. These numbers will need to be improved to get a seat but I think they may be closer than what alot of people think.

Haven't looked at other constituencies yet so couldn't comment.

I will say I have been talking to people who voted SF their whole life who are voting Aontú this time.
For what reason? Abortion?

Mostly over the very liberal abortion framework in place in the North that was cheered on by SF. Moves like that might play well in Belfast and Dublin but not in rural areas.

Further west you go in Ulster more people are  turned off it
Fair enough. Not something I really would be bothered by one way or another but can see why its a big issue for people on either side.

marty34

Quote from: RedHand88 on April 05, 2022, 12:01:36 PM
Quote from: marty34 on April 05, 2022, 11:28:38 AM
Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 10:30:55 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 04, 2022, 07:04:49 PM
Sectarian politics. Stupid eejits voting for these gobshites
Do you not support Aontu?

How will they do?  The TUV of the green side?

With Toibín, like Jim Allister, they seem to be a one man band. They haven't really progressed and polling very low in the opinion polls recently. 

Big election for them but they're not getting their message across or maybe people not interested in their right wing type politics.

Watch this space.

With regards Mid Ulster they got 8% in Carntogher in 2019.
Dan Kerr in Torrent got nearly 17%, costing SF a council seat. He is not Aontú of course but I believe alot of that vote will go to Aontú this time as the pro-life lobby will have nowhere else to go to give SF a bloody nose. These numbers will need to be improved to get a seat but I think they may be closer than what alot of people think.

Haven't looked at other constituencies yet so couldn't comment.

I will say I have been talking to people who voted SF their whole life who are voting Aontú this time.

All this is good but not showing in the opinion polls so far. You'd think it'd show up. Is Kerr not an independent republican? So it it not more of an anti SF vote moreso than a pro Aontú vote? 

Has Aontú's time come and gone?  Obviously they might pick up a council seat or two here and there  but it's a slow build.

RedHand88

#159
Quote from: marty34 on April 05, 2022, 12:52:51 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on April 05, 2022, 12:01:36 PM
Quote from: marty34 on April 05, 2022, 11:28:38 AM
Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 10:30:55 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 04, 2022, 07:04:49 PM
Sectarian politics. Stupid eejits voting for these gobshites
Do you not support Aontu?

How will they do?  The TUV of the green side?

With Toibín, like Jim Allister, they seem to be a one man band. They haven't really progressed and polling very low in the opinion polls recently. 

Big election for them but they're not getting their message across or maybe people not interested in their right wing type politics.

Watch this space.

With regards Mid Ulster they got 8% in Carntogher in 2019.
Dan Kerr in Torrent got nearly 17%, costing SF a council seat. He is not Aontú of course but I believe alot of that vote will go to Aontú this time as the pro-life lobby will have nowhere else to go to give SF a bloody nose. These numbers will need to be improved to get a seat but I think they may be closer than what alot of people think.

Haven't looked at other constituencies yet so couldn't comment.

I will say I have been talking to people who voted SF their whole life who are voting Aontú this time.

All this is good but not showing in the opinion polls so far. You'd think it'd show up. Is Kerr not an independent republican? So it it not more of an anti SF vote moreso than a pro Aontú vote? 

Has Aontú's time come and gone?  Obviously they might pick up a council seat or two here and there  but it's a slow build.

I'm nearly sure Kerr was openly pro life last time out. He won 17% in Michelle Oneills electoral ward which is impressive.

Haven't seen much electioneering by the Aontú candidate in mid ulster though.

Tóibín claims their membership has doubled in the north in recent weeks. Who knows.

Rossfan

Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 05, 2022, 12:26:17 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 10:30:55 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 04, 2022, 07:04:49 PM
Sectarian politics. Stupid eejits voting for these gobshites
Do you not support Aontu?

Yes. Proving my point for me there lad, i am prepared to vote on principle and policy rather than "to make sure we get FM and they dont"










"

And your preferences after no1.?
It's a PR Election
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

clarshack

Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 12:07:33 PM
For what reason? Abortion?

I know of 2 older relatives who always voted Sinn Fein but said never again after the abortion issue. however they had never heard of Aontu and there are bound to be more like them. therefore if Aontu were to get their act together over the coming weeks they might do better than people think.

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

Aontú are doing better south of border so far, up to 3%. , ahead of PBP(Brexiteers-AI party btw) and same as greens in latest poll. We have a lot of work to do north due to the battle SF v DUP

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

Quote from: Rossfan on April 05, 2022, 01:11:17 PM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 05, 2022, 12:26:17 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 10:30:55 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on April 04, 2022, 07:04:49 PM
Sectarian politics. Stupid eejits voting for these gobshites
Do you not support Aontu?

Yes. Proving my point for me there lad, i am prepared to vote on principle and policy rather than "to make sure we get FM and they dont"










"

And your preferences after no1.?
It's a PR Election

TBC

marty34

Quote from: clarshack on April 05, 2022, 01:18:47 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on April 05, 2022, 12:07:33 PM
For what reason? Abortion?

I know of 2 older relatives who always voted Sinn Fein but said never again after the abortion issue. however they had never heard of Aontu and there are bound to be more like them. therefore if Aontu were to get their act together over the coming weeks they might do better than people think.

I know of a few people as well but they changed their stance straight away i.e. a few years ago and went with Aonytú ever since. Older people obviously but conversely young people new to voting will cancel that out I'd say.

Anybody voting Aontú for that one issue, should by extension, be giving a preference to the DUP and TUV etc..

PBP seem to be city based and be interesting to see how Gerry Carroll goes in WB and Fergusion in NB. I think they were for Brexit but never seem to be questioned on it.

The 4th and 5th seat in a lot of areas will be interesting. I think the DUP, as time goes along towards the election, will do grand. They've cut back on their seat numbers as such.