6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[Armagh18]

Could Marty be a Shinner 
Alliance say nothing about a "Border poll".... they'll get transfers from all sides.
Alliance come out and say they're in favour of a "Border poll " they'll lose out on about 60% of transfers.

Could rossfan be FF/FG?

As stated previously, Alliance will have to state where they stand - can't sit on the fence forever.

They will have to at some point if a poll is called, but for now I'd say their best strategy is to sit on the fence and pick up transfers from both sides.

[oakleaflad]

I know a comparison is to compare Alliance to Labour who sat on the fence too long regarding Brexit, but it may be in Alliance's best interests to sit on the fence and accept the result of a poll. They could lose too many voters one way or another declaring on either side.

[Armagh18]

I know a comparison is to compare Alliance to Labour who sat on the fence too long regarding Brexit, but it may be in Alliance's best interests to sit on the fence and accept the result of a poll. They could lose too many voters one way or another declaring on either side.

They'll have nowhere to hide if a borderpoll does happen, they'll be torn to shreds by both sides if they sit on the fence.

[trueblue1234]

I know a comparison is to compare Alliance to Labour who sat on the fence too long regarding Brexit, but it may be in Alliance's best interests to sit on the fence and accept the result of a poll. They could lose too many voters one way or another declaring on either side.

They'll have nowhere to hide if a borderpoll does happen, they'll be torn to shreds by both sides if they sit on the fence.

I can't imagine they will get to wait for that. There's a election coming. If you think this won't be a key discussion in the run in to it for Alliance, your crazy. Both SF and DUP will be pushing them on this in the hope they pull back voters. The DUP in particular. They can try and sit on the fence but I think that would certainly lose them voters from the Unionist side who will want to see a commitment to the Union. 

[JPGJOHNNYG]

SF want to get rid of South Belfast now??!!

Read the room lads jesus!

Saw that had to laugh at Murphy saying you need to look at the bigger picture. I'm sure he wouldn't be saying that if a SF seat was for the axe. Any proposal is difficult but the eastern unionist seats have much smaller populations so start there. If SB did go the one plus side is it would almost certainly end the chance of any Unionist holding one of the remaining 3 Belfast seats

[Armagh18]

I know a comparison is to compare Alliance to Labour who sat on the fence too long regarding Brexit, but it may be in Alliance's best interests to sit on the fence and accept the result of a poll. They could lose too many voters one way or another declaring on either side.

They'll have nowhere to hide if a borderpoll does happen, they'll be torn to shreds by both sides if they sit on the fence.

I can't imagine they will get to wait for that. There's a election coming. If you think this won't be a key discussion in the run in to it for Alliance, your crazy. Both SF and DUP will be pushing them on this in the hope they pull back voters. The DUP in particular. They can try and sit on the fence but I think that would certainly lose them voters from the Unionist side who will want to see a commitment to the Union.

They've managed to avoid it so far and I'd say this time they'll dismiss any talk of a border poll fairly easily by saying voters care more about the state of the health service and by the disgustingly high cost of living and play to the narrative of look at the DUP and Shinners arguing over the same Orange vs Green shite, vote for us and we'll solve everything.

[Rossfan]

Interesting that only the 2 obvious Shinners here are calling for Alliance to declare where they stand on a hypothetical "Border poll".

[Armagh18]

Interesting that only the 2 obvious Shinners here are calling for Alliance to declare where they stand on a hypothetical "Border poll".

How do you think your FF/FG mates will fare out in this election? Oh wait.....

[RedHand88]

Interesting that only the 2 obvious Shinners here are calling for Alliance to declare where they stand on a hypothetical "Border poll".

Why is that "interesting"?

[marty34]

As always Fermanagh & South Tyrone will be interesting to watch.  Currently 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP on a 71.5% turnout in 2017.

Arlene Foster isn't running this time and I'd expect that Deborah Erskine who was coopted into Foster's seat should pick that up.  Paul Bell who resigned from the DUP live on TV is the other DUP candidate but with current polling it's hard to see him pick up the seat that Maurice Morrow lost in 2017.  The TUV is running Tom Elliott's cousin Alex and it'll be interesting to see how he does (780 1st prefs in 2017) For SF, big hitters Michelle Gildernew and Sean Lynch aren't running this time, but I'd expect Michelle's brother, Colm, to take that seat.  He was coopted in 2017 after she became an MP and he has fairly high profile being the health spokesperson and the Gildernew name brings a load of votes with it.  Jemma Dolan was a surprise package in 2017 benefitting from the 'surge' to SF on the day and I'd be surprised if she's not elected.  Newcomer Aine Murphy is hoping to take the 3rd seat but will be under pressure.  Nationality campaigner Emma DeSouza is running as an independent and former SF now Socialist councillor Donal O Cofaigh is running.

Alliance is hoping to nick a seat here with Matthew Beaumont and there was a surprise move from the UUP to field two candidates here for one seat and I'd say Tom Elliott will probably win a seat at the expense of sitting MLA Rosemary Barton who was elected by SDLP transfers in 2017.

Hard to predict what'll happen here.  If SF can hold the 3 seats then they've had a very good day.  But I've a feeling that Alliance will take a seat in front of SF and SDLP.

Prediction: 2 SF, DUP, 1 UUP, 1 All.

I'd love to see Alliance get a seat but I just can't see it - hope I'm wrong

FST is certainly somewhere where Alliance should be pushing for more exposure though, as having lived there for many years I found most people I encountered to be fairly moderate when it comes to politics and things of that nature

Cute hoors.  They elected 3 SF and 1 DUP last time.

you all know that alliance are unionists and committed to the status quo??? 

neverneverland incoming again on may 5th

They are getting quite a big pale green vote these days but I agree they are essentially pro status quo or unionist. A border poll would certainly be interesting to see what Alliance do

Yeah, Alliance will have to go one way or the other.

I think Long was quizzed on this a few times re: would they be in favour of a border but didn't commit.  Or maybe their designation?

They'll have to do it sometime soon - can't keep going on. Only get so far like that.

My original general message about Alliance.

Rossfan manages to turn it into a SF rant.

#obessed

[Rossfan]

Most of the 6 Co posters here agreed with me that Alliance don't need to say anything about a hypothetical "Border poll".
2 posters say they have to take a position.
Only 1 party that I'm aware of talking a lot about a "Border poll".
I see Joe Brolly throwing his spake in.

[trueblue1234]

Interesting that only the 2 obvious Shinners here are calling for Alliance to declare where they stand on a hypothetical "Border poll".

Who were the two?

[Armagh18]

Most of the 6 Co posters here agreed with me that Alliance don't need to say anything about a hypothetical "Border poll".
2 posters say they have to take a position.
Only 1 party that I'm aware of talking a lot about a "Border poll".
I see Joe Brolly throwing his spake in.

I agree that it's not the most pressing issue in this election. But the day is fast approaching where it will be an issue, surely unless anyone but a totally blinkered Jim Allister style clown can see that. They'll have to take a side then I reckon or be torn to bits because a border poll will be the biggest issue in 100 years on this island. Anyway all immaterial to this election.

[imtommygunn]

If they state a position it will rule out us ones or them ones so others are trying to draw them out. They don't have to state their position but it would be interesting to hear them open up about it.

[Wildweasel74]

These people calling for a border poll, if one occurred and we obviously lose, cause no-one on Sinn Fein passed maths it seems. When excately would the 2nd one be? Or are u in the Scotland situation where they gearing to go again if allowed 10yrs after the last, only the situation changed and they lose again. If we won the poll on 2nd attempt, is there another poll down the line after that one to rejoin the UK, if we don't like the pup we been soon and discovered it was all Boris like promises?