6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[sensethetone]

As always Fermanagh & South Tyrone will be interesting to watch.  Currently 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP on a 71.5% turnout in 2017.

Arlene Foster isn't running this time and I'd expect that Deborah Erskine who was coopted into Foster's seat should pick that up.  Paul Bell who resigned from the DUP live on TV is the other DUP candidate but with current polling it's hard to see him pick up the seat that Maurice Morrow lost in 2017.  The TUV is running Tom Elliott's cousin Alex and it'll be interesting to see how he does (780 1st prefs in 2017) For SF, big hitters Michelle Gildernew and Sean Lynch aren't running this time, but I'd expect Michelle's brother, Colm, to take that seat.  He was coopted in 2017 after she became an MP and he has fairly high profile being the health spokesperson and the Gildernew name brings a load of votes with it.  Jemma Dolan was a surprise package in 2017 benefitting from the 'surge' to SF on the day and I'd be surprised if she's not elected.  Newcomer Aine Murphy is hoping to take the 3rd seat but will be under pressure.  Nationality campaigner Emma DeSouza is running as an independent and former SF now Socialist councillor Donal O Cofaigh is running.

Alliance is hoping to nick a seat here with Matthew Beaumont and there was a surprise move from the UUP to field two candidates here for one seat and I'd say Tom Elliott will probably win a seat at the expense of sitting MLA Rosemary Barton who was elected by SDLP transfers in 2017.

Hard to predict what'll happen here.  If SF can hold the 3 seats then they've had a very good day.  But I've a feeling that Alliance will take a seat in front of SF and SDLP.

Prediction: 2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 All.

Good constituency Profile Pub Bore.  But I don't think Alliance can win here.  There should be 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 2 SF and the final seat will be between the 3rd SF candidate and the SDLP

Not certain but i think the UUP got in the last time due to the vote for Colm get Mike campain.

[Armagh18]

As always Fermanagh & South Tyrone will be interesting to watch.  Currently 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP on a 71.5% turnout in 2017.

Arlene Foster isn't running this time and I'd expect that Deborah Erskine who was coopted into Foster's seat should pick that up.  Paul Bell who resigned from the DUP live on TV is the other DUP candidate but with current polling it's hard to see him pick up the seat that Maurice Morrow lost in 2017.  The TUV is running Tom Elliott's cousin Alex and it'll be interesting to see how he does (780 1st prefs in 2017) For SF, big hitters Michelle Gildernew and Sean Lynch aren't running this time, but I'd expect Michelle's brother, Colm, to take that seat.  He was coopted in 2017 after she became an MP and he has fairly high profile being the health spokesperson and the Gildernew name brings a load of votes with it.  Jemma Dolan was a surprise package in 2017 benefitting from the 'surge' to SF on the day and I'd be surprised if she's not elected.  Newcomer Aine Murphy is hoping to take the 3rd seat but will be under pressure.  Nationality campaigner Emma DeSouza is running as an independent and former SF now Socialist councillor Donal O Cofaigh is running.

Alliance is hoping to nick a seat here with Matthew Beaumont and there was a surprise move from the UUP to field two candidates here for one seat and I'd say Tom Elliott will probably win a seat at the expense of sitting MLA Rosemary Barton who was elected by SDLP transfers in 2017.

Hard to predict what'll happen here.  If SF can hold the 3 seats then they've had a very good day.  But I've a feeling that Alliance will take a seat in front of SF and SDLP.

Prediction: 2 SF, DUP, 1 UUP, 1 All.

I'd love to see Alliance get a seat but I just can't see it - hope I'm wrong

FST is certainly somewhere where Alliance should be pushing for more exposure though, as having lived there for many years I found most people I encountered to be fairly moderate when it comes to politics and things of that nature

Cute hoors.  They elected 3 SF and 1 DUP last time.

you all know that alliance are unionists and committed to the status quo??? 

neverneverland incoming again on may 5th

They are getting quite a big pale green vote these days but I agree they are essentially pro status quo or unionist. A border poll would certainly be interesting to see what Alliance do

Certainly would. I wonder would they end up like Labour on Brexit and fall to shite with no clear policy one way or the other.

[Pub Bore]

As always Fermanagh & South Tyrone will be interesting to watch.  Currently 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP on a 71.5% turnout in 2017.

Arlene Foster isn't running this time and I'd expect that Deborah Erskine who was coopted into Foster's seat should pick that up.  Paul Bell who resigned from the DUP live on TV is the other DUP candidate but with current polling it's hard to see him pick up the seat that Maurice Morrow lost in 2017.  The TUV is running Tom Elliott's cousin Alex and it'll be interesting to see how he does (780 1st prefs in 2017) For SF, big hitters Michelle Gildernew and Sean Lynch aren't running this time, but I'd expect Michelle's brother, Colm, to take that seat.  He was coopted in 2017 after she became an MP and he has fairly high profile being the health spokesperson and the Gildernew name brings a load of votes with it.  Jemma Dolan was a surprise package in 2017 benefitting from the 'surge' to SF on the day and I'd be surprised if she's not elected.  Newcomer Aine Murphy is hoping to take the 3rd seat but will be under pressure.  Nationality campaigner Emma DeSouza is running as an independent and former SF now Socialist councillor Donal O Cofaigh is running.

Alliance is hoping to nick a seat here with Matthew Beaumont and there was a surprise move from the UUP to field two candidates here for one seat and I'd say Tom Elliott will probably win a seat at the expense of sitting MLA Rosemary Barton who was elected by SDLP transfers in 2017.

Hard to predict what'll happen here.  If SF can hold the 3 seats then they've had a very good day.  But I've a feeling that Alliance will take a seat in front of SF and SDLP.

Prediction: 2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 All.

Good constituency Profile Pub Bore.  But I don't think Alliance can win here.  There should be 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 2 SF and the final seat will be between the 3rd SF candidate and the SDLP

Not certain but i think the UUP got in the last time due to the vote for Colm get Mike campain.

Yes, more than 33% of the SDLP transfers that day went to Rosemary Barton (UUP).  This actually led to Maurice Morrow of the DUP failing to get elected.

[red hander]

As always Fermanagh & South Tyrone will be interesting to watch.  Currently 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP on a 71.5% turnout in 2017.

Arlene Foster isn't running this time and I'd expect that Deborah Erskine who was coopted into Foster's seat should pick that up.  Paul Bell who resigned from the DUP live on TV is the other DUP candidate but with current polling it's hard to see him pick up the seat that Maurice Morrow lost in 2017.  The TUV is running Tom Elliott's cousin Alex and it'll be interesting to see how he does (780 1st prefs in 2017) For SF, big hitters Michelle Gildernew and Sean Lynch aren't running this time, but I'd expect Michelle's brother, Colm, to take that seat.  He was coopted in 2017 after she became an MP and he has fairly high profile being the health spokesperson and the Gildernew name brings a load of votes with it.  Jemma Dolan was a surprise package in 2017 benefitting from the 'surge' to SF on the day and I'd be surprised if she's not elected.  Newcomer Aine Murphy is hoping to take the 3rd seat but will be under pressure.  Nationality campaigner Emma DeSouza is running as an independent and former SF now Socialist councillor Donal O Cofaigh is running.

Alliance is hoping to nick a seat here with Matthew Beaumont and there was a surprise move from the UUP to field two candidates here for one seat and I'd say Tom Elliott will probably win a seat at the expense of sitting MLA Rosemary Barton who was elected by SDLP transfers in 2017.

Hard to predict what'll happen here.  If SF can hold the 3 seats then they've had a very good day.  But I've a feeling that Alliance will take a seat in front of SF and SDLP.

Prediction: 2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 All.

Good constituency Profile Pub Bore.  But I don't think Alliance can win here.  There should be 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 2 SF and the final seat will be between the 3rd SF candidate and the SDLP

Not certain but i think the UUP got in the last time due to the vote for Colm get Mike campain.

Yes, more than 33% of the SDLP transfers that day went to Rosemary Barton (UUP).  This actually led to Maurice Morrow of the DUP failing to get elected.

Not a problem for that bigot. They just gave him a wee ermine cloak so he could join Lady Ritchie at the British Establishment's top trough.

[marty34]

As always Fermanagh & South Tyrone will be interesting to watch.  Currently 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP on a 71.5% turnout in 2017.

Arlene Foster isn't running this time and I'd expect that Deborah Erskine who was coopted into Foster's seat should pick that up.  Paul Bell who resigned from the DUP live on TV is the other DUP candidate but with current polling it's hard to see him pick up the seat that Maurice Morrow lost in 2017.  The TUV is running Tom Elliott's cousin Alex and it'll be interesting to see how he does (780 1st prefs in 2017) For SF, big hitters Michelle Gildernew and Sean Lynch aren't running this time, but I'd expect Michelle's brother, Colm, to take that seat.  He was coopted in 2017 after she became an MP and he has fairly high profile being the health spokesperson and the Gildernew name brings a load of votes with it.  Jemma Dolan was a surprise package in 2017 benefitting from the 'surge' to SF on the day and I'd be surprised if she's not elected.  Newcomer Aine Murphy is hoping to take the 3rd seat but will be under pressure.  Nationality campaigner Emma DeSouza is running as an independent and former SF now Socialist councillor Donal O Cofaigh is running.

Alliance is hoping to nick a seat here with Matthew Beaumont and there was a surprise move from the UUP to field two candidates here for one seat and I'd say Tom Elliott will probably win a seat at the expense of sitting MLA Rosemary Barton who was elected by SDLP transfers in 2017.

Hard to predict what'll happen here.  If SF can hold the 3 seats then they've had a very good day.  But I've a feeling that Alliance will take a seat in front of SF and SDLP.

Prediction: 2 SF, DUP, 1 UUP, 1 All.

I'd love to see Alliance get a seat but I just can't see it - hope I'm wrong

FST is certainly somewhere where Alliance should be pushing for more exposure though, as having lived there for many years I found most people I encountered to be fairly moderate when it comes to politics and things of that nature

Cute hoors.  They elected 3 SF and 1 DUP last time.

you all know that alliance are unionists and committed to the status quo??? 

neverneverland incoming again on may 5th

They are getting quite a big pale green vote these days but I agree they are essentially pro status quo or unionist. A border poll would certainly be interesting to see what Alliance do

Yeah, Alliance will have to go one way or the other.

I think Long was quizzed on this a few times re: would they be in favour of a border but didn't commit.  Or maybe their designation?

They'll have to do it sometime soon - can't keep going on. Only get so far like that.

[Rossfan]

Presumably they will wait till SofS calls such a poll?
Then let their members vote as they see fit?
Then accept the result?

[marty34]

Presumably they will wait till SofS calls such a poll?
Then let their members vote as they see fit?
Then accept the result?

Cop out.

They were against Brexit and voted accordingly.

Need to let voters know where they stand.

[Rossfan]

Presumably they will wait till SofS calls such a poll?
Then let their members vote as they see fit?
Then accept the result?

Cop out.

They were against Brexit and voted accordingly.

Need to let voters know where they stand.

They don't really as there is no proposal for a "Border poll" and only the SofS can call it.

[seafoid]

Presumably they will wait till SofS calls such a poll?
Then let their members vote as they see fit?
Then accept the result?

Cop out.

They were against Brexit and voted accordingly.

Need to let voters know where they stand.

They don't really as there is no proposal for a "Border poll" and only the SofS can call it.

There probably won't be a border poll until a large enough majority of 26 county voters are in favour and the thing has been properly planned and costed.
Brexit shows how not to do it.

[marty34]

Presumably they will wait till SofS calls such a poll?
Then let their members vote as they see fit?
Then accept the result?

Cop out.

They were against Brexit and voted accordingly.

Need to let voters know where they stand.

They don't really as there is no proposal for a "Border poll" and only the SofS can call it.

Do they not? Not get a lot of tranfers in next few elections unless they commit to say where they stand. Quite simple really.

[marty34]

Presumably they will wait till SofS calls such a poll?
Then let their members vote as they see fit?
Then accept the result?

Cop out.

They were against Brexit and voted accordingly.

Need to let voters know where they stand.

They don't really as there is no proposal for a "Border poll" and only the SofS can call it.

There probably won't be a border poll until a large enough majority of 26 county voters are in favour and the thing has been properly planned and costed.
Brexit shows how not to do it.

Definately no chance if MM and LV keep spouting their usual waffle about...it' was divisive 2 years ago, it was divisive 6 months ago and it'll be divisive in 12 months time.

Planned properly and costed....the Children's Hospital anybody?

[Rossfan]

Could Marty be a Shinner 
Alliance say nothing about a "Border poll".... they'll get transfers from all sides.
Alliance come out and say they're in favour of a "Border poll " they'll lose out on about 60% of transfers.

[johnnycool]

Could Marty be a Shinner 
Alliance say nothing about a "Border poll".... they'll get transfers from all sides.
Alliance come out and say they're in favour of a "Border poll " they'll lose out on about 60% of transfers.

Why would they come out either way?

They'll stick with the fence sitting stuff for as long as possible.

SDLP wanted a border poll after Brexit, are they still wanting one?

Shinners want one every week FFS..

Timing is key and as someone else rightly pointed out Brexit was a blueprint for what not to do albeit those pushing the Brexit poll knew only too well to keep the truth well out of the way and go with lies and nationalistic slogans based on lies.

[screenexile]

SF want to get rid of South Belfast now??!!

Read the room lads jesus!

[marty34]

Could Marty be a Shinner 
Alliance say nothing about a "Border poll".... they'll get transfers from all sides.
Alliance come out and say they're in favour of a "Border poll " they'll lose out on about 60% of transfers.

Could rossfan be FF/FG?

As stated previously, Alliance will have to state where they stand - can't sit on the fence forever.