6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[Feckitt]

Upper Bann could be interesting, I wouldn't be surprised if Eoin Tennyson takes a seat at the expense of Diane Dodds.

Upper Bann is a classic case of why everyone should vote down the ballot paper.  If you are a SF or SDLP voter you must give a lower preference vote to Alliance, because there is a good chance that the Alliance candidate could knock out the execrable Diane Dodds of the DUP.
Even if you are not a fan of Alliance, your transfer will only go to them after your preferred candidate is either elected or eliminated.

[marty34]

Upper Bann could be interesting, I wouldn't be surprised if Eoin Tennyson takes a seat at the expense of Diane Dodds.

Upper Bann is a classic case of why everyone should vote down the ballot paper.  If you are a SF or SDLP voter you must give a lower preference vote to Alliance, because there is a good chance that the Alliance candidate could knock out the execrable Diane Dodds of the DUP.
Even if you are not a fan of Alliance, your transfer will only go to them after your preferred candidate is either elected or eliminated.

Yeah, I think a lot of people don't understand that you should go all the way down the paper and give a preference to the candiates you like/agree with and then stop at the people who you're not giving a preference to.

[Armagh18]

Upper Bann could be interesting, I wouldn't be surprised if Eoin Tennyson takes a seat at the expense of Diane Dodds.

Upper Bann is a classic case of why everyone should vote down the ballot paper.  If you are a SF or SDLP voter you must give a lower preference vote to Alliance, because there is a good chance that the Alliance candidate could knock out the execrable Diane Dodds of the DUP.
Even if you are not a fan of Alliance, your transfer will only go to them after your preferred candidate is either elected or eliminated.

Yeah, I think a lot of people don't understand that you should go all the way down the paper and give a preference to the candiates you like/agree with and then stop at the people who you're not giving a preference to.

Yeah have heard plenty of examples of that myself, try and put as many numbers down as possible (obviously none to DUP/UUP/TUV)

[RedHand88]

I gave 10th or 11th preference to Buchanan the DUP candidate in mid ulster who wasn't Mccrea. I thought the DUP will have 1 seat no matter what, might as well not be mccrea.
Buchanan beat McCrea by a handle of votes and hasn't been seen since.

It pays to go right down the ballot folks.

[seafoid]

Susan McKay kicks the DUP up and down the road in this Guardian piece: https://t.co/h8v6FFn4mQ

Good article

Reminded me of this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eY2FgX6dhCc&t=7s

[dec]

Upper Bann could be interesting, I wouldn't be surprised if Eoin Tennyson takes a seat at the expense of Diane Dodds.

Upper Bann is a classic case of why everyone should vote down the ballot paper.  If you are a SF or SDLP voter you must give a lower preference vote to Alliance, because there is a good chance that the Alliance candidate could knock out the execrable Diane Dodds of the DUP.
Even if you are not a fan of Alliance, your transfer will only go to them after your preferred candidate is either elected or eliminated.

Yeah, I think a lot of people don't understand that you should go all the way down the paper and give a preference to the candiates you like/agree with and then stop at the people who you're not giving a preference to.

Yeah have heard plenty of examples of that myself, try and put as many numbers down as possible (obviously none to DUP/UUP/TUV)

I always went all the way down, including expressing a preference between themmuns. I once took great pleasure in giving Paisley the last preference in a European election. If you go all the way down, including DUP/TUV, that will never hurt one of your more preferred candidates, because the candidates at the bottom of your list will not get your vote until all your more preferred candidates have either been elected or eliminated.

[Pub Bore]

As always Fermanagh & South Tyrone will be interesting to watch.  Currently 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP on a 71.5% turnout in 2017.

Arlene Foster isn't running this time and I'd expect that Deborah Erskine who was coopted into Foster's seat should pick that up.  Paul Bell who resigned from the DUP live on TV is the other DUP candidate but with current polling it's hard to see him pick up the seat that Maurice Morrow lost in 2017.  The TUV is running Tom Elliott's cousin Alex and it'll be interesting to see how he does (780 1st prefs in 2017) For SF, big hitters Michelle Gildernew and Sean Lynch aren't running this time, but I'd expect Michelle's brother, Colm, to take that seat.  He was coopted in 2017 after she became an MP and he has fairly high profile being the health spokesperson and the Gildernew name brings a load of votes with it.  Jemma Dolan was a surprise package in 2017 benefitting from the 'surge' to SF on the day and I'd be surprised if she's not elected.  Newcomer Aine Murphy is hoping to take the 3rd seat but will be under pressure.  Nationality campaigner Emma DeSouza is running as an independent and former SF now Socialist councillor Donal O Cofaigh is running.

Alliance is hoping to nick a seat here with Matthew Beaumont and there was a surprise move from the UUP to field two candidates here for one seat and I'd say Tom Elliott will probably win a seat at the expense of sitting MLA Rosemary Barton who was elected by SDLP transfers in 2017.

Hard to predict what'll happen here.  If SF can hold the 3 seats then they've had a very good day.  But I've a feeling that Alliance will take a seat in front of SF and SDLP.

Prediction: 2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 All.

[marty34]

I gave 10th or 11th preference to Buchanan the DUP candidate in mid ulster who wasn't Mccrea. I thought the DUP will have 1 seat no matter what, might as well not be mccrea.
Buchanan beat McCrea by a handle of votes and hasn't been seen since.

It pays to go right down the ballot folks.

Yeah, I think the premise of it is you are pushing the people who don't give a preference to further and further away.

[tintin25]

As always Fermanagh & South Tyrone will be interesting to watch.  Currently 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP on a 71.5% turnout in 2017.

Arlene Foster isn't running this time and I'd expect that Deborah Erskine who was coopted into Foster's seat should pick that up.  Paul Bell who resigned from the DUP live on TV is the other DUP candidate but with current polling it's hard to see him pick up the seat that Maurice Morrow lost in 2017.  The TUV is running Tom Elliott's cousin Alex and it'll be interesting to see how he does (780 1st prefs in 2017) For SF, big hitters Michelle Gildernew and Sean Lynch aren't running this time, but I'd expect Michelle's brother, Colm, to take that seat.  He was coopted in 2017 after she became an MP and he has fairly high profile being the health spokesperson and the Gildernew name brings a load of votes with it.  Jemma Dolan was a surprise package in 2017 benefitting from the 'surge' to SF on the day and I'd be surprised if she's not elected.  Newcomer Aine Murphy is hoping to take the 3rd seat but will be under pressure.  Nationality campaigner Emma DeSouza is running as an independent and former SF now Socialist councillor Donal O Cofaigh is running.

Alliance is hoping to nick a seat here with Matthew Beaumont and there was a surprise move from the UUP to field two candidates here for one seat and I'd say Tom Elliott will probably win a seat at the expense of sitting MLA Rosemary Barton who was elected by SDLP transfers in 2017.

Hard to predict what'll happen here.  If SF can hold the 3 seats then they've had a very good day.  But I've a feeling that Alliance will take a seat in front of SF and SDLP.

Prediction: 2 SF, DUP, 1 UUP, 1 All.

I'd love to see Alliance get a seat but I just can't see it - hope I'm wrong

FST is certainly somewhere where Alliance should be pushing for more exposure though, as having lived there for many years I found most people I encountered to be fairly moderate when it comes to politics and things of that nature

[marty34]

As always Fermanagh & South Tyrone will be interesting to watch.  Currently 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP on a 71.5% turnout in 2017.

Arlene Foster isn't running this time and I'd expect that Deborah Erskine who was coopted into Foster's seat should pick that up.  Paul Bell who resigned from the DUP live on TV is the other DUP candidate but with current polling it's hard to see him pick up the seat that Maurice Morrow lost in 2017.  The TUV is running Tom Elliott's cousin Alex and it'll be interesting to see how he does (780 1st prefs in 2017) For SF, big hitters Michelle Gildernew and Sean Lynch aren't running this time, but I'd expect Michelle's brother, Colm, to take that seat.  He was coopted in 2017 after she became an MP and he has fairly high profile being the health spokesperson and the Gildernew name brings a load of votes with it.  Jemma Dolan was a surprise package in 2017 benefitting from the 'surge' to SF on the day and I'd be surprised if she's not elected.  Newcomer Aine Murphy is hoping to take the 3rd seat but will be under pressure.  Nationality campaigner Emma DeSouza is running as an independent and former SF now Socialist councillor Donal O Cofaigh is running.

Alliance is hoping to nick a seat here with Matthew Beaumont and there was a surprise move from the UUP to field two candidates here for one seat and I'd say Tom Elliott will probably win a seat at the expense of sitting MLA Rosemary Barton who was elected by SDLP transfers in 2017.

Hard to predict what'll happen here.  If SF can hold the 3 seats then they've had a very good day.  But I've a feeling that Alliance will take a seat in front of SF and SDLP.

Prediction: 2 SF, DUP, 1 UUP, 1 All.

Big turn out that at over 70%.

You'd think that Elliot will get enough to get over the line - with two candidates there, I'm sure it'll be a dogfight over areas etc. especially when they both realise there"ll be more than likely only one seat.

Be interesting to see how the TUV do overall - will they get anybody else than wee Jim elected? He still seems to be big buddies with the DUP. I thought a few months ago that he'd be full on blaming them for the Brexit/Protocol mess but he hasn't - still cosying up to them.

Hard to know how Alliance will do, especially west of the Bann and also, if the UUP will take some of their votes not Beattie has distanced himself from the rabble rousing platforms.

I didn't know that Emma De S. is standing as an independent in tbat area. Can't see her getting much traction without being in a party. She'd be high profile enough.

[Pub Bore]

As always Fermanagh & South Tyrone will be interesting to watch.  Currently 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP on a 71.5% turnout in 2017.

Arlene Foster isn't running this time and I'd expect that Deborah Erskine who was coopted into Foster's seat should pick that up.  Paul Bell who resigned from the DUP live on TV is the other DUP candidate but with current polling it's hard to see him pick up the seat that Maurice Morrow lost in 2017.  The TUV is running Tom Elliott's cousin Alex and it'll be interesting to see how he does (780 1st prefs in 2017) For SF, big hitters Michelle Gildernew and Sean Lynch aren't running this time, but I'd expect Michelle's brother, Colm, to take that seat.  He was coopted in 2017 after she became an MP and he has fairly high profile being the health spokesperson and the Gildernew name brings a load of votes with it.  Jemma Dolan was a surprise package in 2017 benefitting from the 'surge' to SF on the day and I'd be surprised if she's not elected.  Newcomer Aine Murphy is hoping to take the 3rd seat but will be under pressure.  Nationality campaigner Emma DeSouza is running as an independent and former SF now Socialist councillor Donal O Cofaigh is running.

Alliance is hoping to nick a seat here with Matthew Beaumont and there was a surprise move from the UUP to field two candidates here for one seat and I'd say Tom Elliott will probably win a seat at the expense of sitting MLA Rosemary Barton who was elected by SDLP transfers in 2017.

Hard to predict what'll happen here.  If SF can hold the 3 seats then they've had a very good day.  But I've a feeling that Alliance will take a seat in front of SF and SDLP.

Prediction: 2 SF, DUP, 1 UUP, 1 All.

I'd love to see Alliance get a seat but I just can't see it - hope I'm wrong

FST is certainly somewhere where Alliance should be pushing for more exposure though, as having lived there for many years I found most people I encountered to be fairly moderate when it comes to politics and things of that nature

Cute hoors.  They elected 3 SF and 1 DUP last time.

[Mikhail Prokhorov]

As always Fermanagh & South Tyrone will be interesting to watch.  Currently 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP on a 71.5% turnout in 2017.

Arlene Foster isn't running this time and I'd expect that Deborah Erskine who was coopted into Foster's seat should pick that up.  Paul Bell who resigned from the DUP live on TV is the other DUP candidate but with current polling it's hard to see him pick up the seat that Maurice Morrow lost in 2017.  The TUV is running Tom Elliott's cousin Alex and it'll be interesting to see how he does (780 1st prefs in 2017) For SF, big hitters Michelle Gildernew and Sean Lynch aren't running this time, but I'd expect Michelle's brother, Colm, to take that seat.  He was coopted in 2017 after she became an MP and he has fairly high profile being the health spokesperson and the Gildernew name brings a load of votes with it.  Jemma Dolan was a surprise package in 2017 benefitting from the 'surge' to SF on the day and I'd be surprised if she's not elected.  Newcomer Aine Murphy is hoping to take the 3rd seat but will be under pressure.  Nationality campaigner Emma DeSouza is running as an independent and former SF now Socialist councillor Donal O Cofaigh is running.

Alliance is hoping to nick a seat here with Matthew Beaumont and there was a surprise move from the UUP to field two candidates here for one seat and I'd say Tom Elliott will probably win a seat at the expense of sitting MLA Rosemary Barton who was elected by SDLP transfers in 2017.

Hard to predict what'll happen here.  If SF can hold the 3 seats then they've had a very good day.  But I've a feeling that Alliance will take a seat in front of SF and SDLP.

Prediction: 2 SF, DUP, 1 UUP, 1 All.

I'd love to see Alliance get a seat but I just can't see it - hope I'm wrong

FST is certainly somewhere where Alliance should be pushing for more exposure though, as having lived there for many years I found most people I encountered to be fairly moderate when it comes to politics and things of that nature

Cute hoors.  They elected 3 SF and 1 DUP last time.

you all know that alliance are unionists and committed to the status quo??? 

neverneverland incoming again on may 5th

[Rossfan]

If you give someone a very low preference they could still get your vote on a transfer.
Leave those you don't like blank and they can never get it.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

As always Fermanagh & South Tyrone will be interesting to watch.  Currently 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP on a 71.5% turnout in 2017.

Arlene Foster isn't running this time and I'd expect that Deborah Erskine who was coopted into Foster's seat should pick that up.  Paul Bell who resigned from the DUP live on TV is the other DUP candidate but with current polling it's hard to see him pick up the seat that Maurice Morrow lost in 2017.  The TUV is running Tom Elliott's cousin Alex and it'll be interesting to see how he does (780 1st prefs in 2017) For SF, big hitters Michelle Gildernew and Sean Lynch aren't running this time, but I'd expect Michelle's brother, Colm, to take that seat.  He was coopted in 2017 after she became an MP and he has fairly high profile being the health spokesperson and the Gildernew name brings a load of votes with it.  Jemma Dolan was a surprise package in 2017 benefitting from the 'surge' to SF on the day and I'd be surprised if she's not elected.  Newcomer Aine Murphy is hoping to take the 3rd seat but will be under pressure.  Nationality campaigner Emma DeSouza is running as an independent and former SF now Socialist councillor Donal O Cofaigh is running.

Alliance is hoping to nick a seat here with Matthew Beaumont and there was a surprise move from the UUP to field two candidates here for one seat and I'd say Tom Elliott will probably win a seat at the expense of sitting MLA Rosemary Barton who was elected by SDLP transfers in 2017.

Hard to predict what'll happen here.  If SF can hold the 3 seats then they've had a very good day.  But I've a feeling that Alliance will take a seat in front of SF and SDLP.

Prediction: 2 SF, DUP, 1 UUP, 1 All.

I'd love to see Alliance get a seat but I just can't see it - hope I'm wrong

FST is certainly somewhere where Alliance should be pushing for more exposure though, as having lived there for many years I found most people I encountered to be fairly moderate when it comes to politics and things of that nature

Cute hoors.  They elected 3 SF and 1 DUP last time.

you all know that alliance are unionists and committed to the status quo??? 

neverneverland incoming again on may 5th

They are getting quite a big pale green vote these days but I agree they are essentially pro status quo or unionist. A border poll would certainly be interesting to see what Alliance do

[Feckitt]

As always Fermanagh & South Tyrone will be interesting to watch.  Currently 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP on a 71.5% turnout in 2017.

Arlene Foster isn't running this time and I'd expect that Deborah Erskine who was coopted into Foster's seat should pick that up.  Paul Bell who resigned from the DUP live on TV is the other DUP candidate but with current polling it's hard to see him pick up the seat that Maurice Morrow lost in 2017.  The TUV is running Tom Elliott's cousin Alex and it'll be interesting to see how he does (780 1st prefs in 2017) For SF, big hitters Michelle Gildernew and Sean Lynch aren't running this time, but I'd expect Michelle's brother, Colm, to take that seat.  He was coopted in 2017 after she became an MP and he has fairly high profile being the health spokesperson and the Gildernew name brings a load of votes with it.  Jemma Dolan was a surprise package in 2017 benefitting from the 'surge' to SF on the day and I'd be surprised if she's not elected.  Newcomer Aine Murphy is hoping to take the 3rd seat but will be under pressure.  Nationality campaigner Emma DeSouza is running as an independent and former SF now Socialist councillor Donal O Cofaigh is running.

Alliance is hoping to nick a seat here with Matthew Beaumont and there was a surprise move from the UUP to field two candidates here for one seat and I'd say Tom Elliott will probably win a seat at the expense of sitting MLA Rosemary Barton who was elected by SDLP transfers in 2017.

Hard to predict what'll happen here.  If SF can hold the 3 seats then they've had a very good day.  But I've a feeling that Alliance will take a seat in front of SF and SDLP.

Prediction: 2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 All.

Good constituency Profile Pub Bore.  But I don't think Alliance can win here.  There should be 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 2 SF and the final seat will be between the 3rd SF candidate and the SDLP