A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[Taylor]

I have not heard much about Welsh independence over the years.

Strange considering how much noise the Scots have made

[Farrandeelin]

I suspect your last sentence may well be the way it will happen.
Meanwhile we are putting up €500m in the Shared Ireland Unit to improve cross border infrastructure, A5 etc.

I know Martin had to satisfy his own crowd plus Varadkar and Ryan in naming his 11 Seanadóiri but he could have picked a "civic unionist" and a "civic nationalist" from the 6 Cos to prove his commitment to Shared Ireland.

MM doesn't want a United Ireland which is why he didn't pick a civic nationalist/unionist.

[Applesisapples]

Chief
1 only the Brit Sec of State can call it in the 6
2 if the 26 vote NO there won't be Unity.

Correct on both counts but with important qualifications:

1) The SOSNI is obliged to call it in the case a majority becomes evident - so if there is a Northern nationalist majority it happens.
2) Calling a border poll and winning it are separate things. Even if the 26 might say no, that is no basis (either in the GFA or anywhere else) to deny the people their chance to express their constitutional preferences.

For what it's worth I don't think it's a forgone conclusion at all that a border poll would be won, but my gut tells me it would.

Your gut is wrong, there is no chance of a UI vote being won in the current circumstances. Those advocating it have failed to demonstrate what the benefits are and people will only vote for change if there is something in it for them. But what a vote would do as in Scotland is give a base from which to work and allow those wanting unity to slowly build a case. Unless something cataclysmic happens that will take decades.

[Applesisapples]

I suspect your last sentence may well be the way it will happen.
Meanwhile we are putting up €500m in the Shared Ireland Unit to improve cross border infrastructure, A5 etc.

I know Martin had to satisfy his own crowd plus Varadkar and Ryan in naming his 11 Seanadóiri but he could have picked a "civic unionist" and a "civic nationalist" from the 6 Cos to prove his commitment to Shared Ireland.

No chance the gravy train has no room for anyone outside FF.

[Sportacus]

We are heading full steam for a de facto Economic United Ireland from 1 January.  I don't think the penny has dropped how severe the Irish Sea Border will be.  Customs and much more will make NI a big turn off for GB business which normally only does a small percentage of its overall trading into NI.  It just won't be worth the hassle from January.

[LCohen]

We are heading full steam for a de facto Economic United Ireland from 1 January.  I don't think the penny has dropped how severe the Irish Sea Border will be.  Customs and much more will make NI a big turn off for GB business which normally only does a small percentage of its overall trading into NI.  It just won't be worth the hassle from January.

That (if it's true) relies on there being a deal.

But you are correct on the problems the Irish Sea customs will create and they fact that a lot of people have not yet woken up to them.

Conversely I disagree with you on the business impact. Big business should have little difficulty. The impact on smaller businesses could be crippling though

[Sportacus]

We are heading full steam for a de facto Economic United Ireland from 1 January.  I don't think the penny has dropped how severe the Irish Sea Border will be.  Customs and much more will make NI a big turn off for GB business which normally only does a small percentage of its overall trading into NI.  It just won't be worth the hassle from January.

That (if it's true) relies on there being a deal.

But you are correct on the problems the Irish Sea customs will create and they fact that a lot of people have not yet woken up to them.

Conversely I disagree with you on the business impact. Big business should have little difficulty. The impact on smaller businesses could be crippling though

It actually doesn't rely on there being a deal.  The Ireland Protocol is a legal agreement already in place and stands whether there is a free trade agreement or not.  An FTA would help for example take tariffs out of the equation, but everything else still stands no matter what.

[balladmaker]

As per GFA, once the first border poll is called, it sets in train a poll every 7 years .... and that is what unionists fear the most.

I'm of the view that the first poll is winnable, with the ground work being done over the coming few years.

As for the elements who will always exist within loyalism, how they can be appeased is another question entirely.  We definitely don't want another 30+ years of sectarian violence.  But the threat of such cannot be used as an argument against having a border poll, nor can MM's view that one will be divisive.  Of course it will, it's the nature of referendums.

[Jeepers Creepers]

As per GFA, once the first border poll is called, it sets in train a poll every 7 years .... and that is what unionists fear the most.

I'm of the view that the first poll is winnable, with the ground work being done over the coming few years.

As for the elements who will always exist within loyalism, how they can be appeased is another question entirely (Money!).  We definitely don't want another 30+ years of sectarian violence.  But the threat of such cannot be used as an argument against having a border poll, nor can MM's view that one will be divisive.  Of course it will, it's the nature of referendums.

Answer in bold.

[Rossfan]

Doesn't the 7 years thing actually state that another poll may not be held within 7 years of the previous one as opposed to requiring one every 7 years?

[dec]

Doesn't the 7 years thing actually state that another poll may not be held within 7 years of the previous one as opposed to requiring one every 7 years?

Correct

[armaghniac]

Doesn't the 7 years thing actually state that another poll may not be held within 7 years of the previous one as opposed to requiring one every 7 years?

However, if the first poll was anyway close then another one is inevitable.

[LCohen]

We are heading full steam for a de facto Economic United Ireland from 1 January.  I don't think the penny has dropped how severe the Irish Sea Border will be.  Customs and much more will make NI a big turn off for GB business which normally only does a small percentage of its overall trading into NI.  It just won't be worth the hassle from January.

That (if it's true) relies on there being a deal.

But you are correct on the problems the Irish Sea customs will create and they fact that a lot of people have not yet woken up to them.

Conversely I disagree with you on the business impact. Big business should have little difficulty. The impact on smaller businesses could be crippling though

It actually doesn't rely on there being a deal.  The Ireland Protocol is a legal agreement already in place and stands whether there is a free trade agreement or not.  An FTA would help for example take tariffs out of the equation, but everything else still stands no matter what.

If there is no deal then the Single Market Bill is primed to blow a hole in the protocol. It's not through Parliament yet so there is a couple of hurdles to go yet including the inevitable legal challenge. But I certainly wouldn't say the Irish Protocol stands no matter what

[LCohen]

As per GFA, once the first border poll is called, it sets in train a poll every 7 years .... and that is what unionists fear the most.

It's how amazing how people can read into something the thing they want to hear.

Bizarre to say that the thing in the GFA that unionist fear the most isn't in the GFA

I'm of the view that the first poll is winnable, with the ground work being done over the coming few years

Who is going to do this ground work? When are they going to start? What will it look like? What makes you think it will be successful?

As for the elements who will always exist within loyalism, how they can be appeased is another question entirely.  We definitely don't want another 30+ years of sectarian violence.  But the threat of such cannot be used as an argument against having a border poll, nor can MM's view that one will be divisive.  Of course it will, it's the nature of referendums.

The divisive nature of a referendum and the threat of loyalist violence absolutely cannot be used as a reason to never have a referendum. But divisiveness and violence are pretty terrible consequences and therefore there needs to be caution in using such a referendum. A referendum shouldn't be used as a tactic to stir divisiveness. Anyway the more important issue is that those issues are unlikely to encourage a pro UI vote in RoI and its that that will probably bring about the required caution

[Sportacus]

We are heading full steam for a de facto Economic United Ireland from 1 January.  I don't think the penny has dropped how severe the Irish Sea Border will be.  Customs and much more will make NI a big turn off for GB business which normally only does a small percentage of its overall trading into NI.  It just won't be worth the hassle from January.

That (if it's true) relies on there being a deal.

But you are correct on the problems the Irish Sea customs will create and they fact that a lot of people have not yet woken up to them.

Conversely I disagree with you on the business impact. Big business should have little difficulty. The impact on smaller businesses could be crippling though

It actually doesn't rely on there being a deal.  The Ireland Protocol is a legal agreement already in place and stands whether there is a free trade agreement or not.  An FTA would help for example take tariffs out of the equation, but everything else still stands no matter what.

If there is no deal then the Single Market Bill is primed to blow a hole in the protocol. It's not through Parliament yet so there is a couple of hurdles to go yet including the inevitable legal challenge. But I certainly wouldn't say the Irish Protocol stands no matter what

Yes that's all true, the British Government could opt for chaos. To what end I don't know other than pleasing their hardliners.