Brexit.

[easytiger95]

Upshot of the GFA was that Northern Irish residents could choose to be either British or Irish or both - that was the essential fudge that got it over the line. With Brexit that now changes to being British or European or both.

If a hard border materialises (and whilst I'd say the odds of it appearing are slightly increasing, the odds of it being permanent are vanishingly small) than the first thing that will happen is that NI nationalists will sue for their rights as European citizens, which were guaranteed under the GFA. Than you would have the spectacle of HM Government defending itself for repudiating a treaty it signed and ratified under international law. It won't go that far, even in a world of Trump, Johnson and disrespect for institutions. The pendulum swings slow but it does swing, and a revitalised international system a la the post WWII settlement may just be the result of all the facist flirtations of the past decade. And the UN won't want a permanent member of the security council reneging on UN registered treaties.

The "backstop" is a fact. The DUP are now prepared to sacrifice Brexit to maintain the Union. The irony here is delicious - if the DUP support a no-deal Brexit, they precipitate a border poll. If they support a soft Brexit, they risk being knifed in the back by the ERG and cut adrift by the Conservatives, and facing the possibility of the most left wing and republican-sympathetic Prime Minister ever - who might just call a border poll.

It is remarkable that the only principled stand they could have made, was also the one that was most effective for protecting the status quo - opposing Brexit from the outset. They took Arron Bank's soup despite knowing that leaving the EU, in any form, was poisonous for NI business and agriculture and they did it because they could foresee no consequences - Brexit would be defeated but they would be poster children for the burgeoning far right with dark money for all. Unfortunately for them, they won. And now they are squirming.

If I was Sinn Fein, I wouldn't be doing anything. When your opponents are setting themselves on fire, do not hand them a bucket of water. Theresa May said last week that NI was unprepared for a hard Brexit because of the lack of an assembly. The DUP cried foul straight away. Because they know what it coming. There will be a reckoning after all this is over, and the hegemony the Unionists currently enjoy in NI because of their numbers in Westminster will come to an end, and the Tories will be looking for any scape goat they can find.

Stay out of the way and let them at it.

So let a "no deal" Brexit happen and f**k all the people in NI? Is that what you think is a good plan?

I'd say the first element of any plan is learning to read. I did not suggest the above. I said that I think that the risk of a No Deal has only increased slightly and even if it does happen, it is completely unsustainable under international law and would not be permanent. Given that, there is no political advantage to Sinn Fein intervening.

The right of all people in Northern Ireland to declare themselves European (Irish) is guaranteed under international law, and can be prosecuted under that law. Which means no deal Brexit for NI is a non runner. And no amount of Brexiteer bluster is going to change that.

The immovable force of the DUP/ERG is about to be introduced to the irresistible force of reality. Stay out of the way of the collision and make sure that you are ready to exploit the situation after the smoke clears.

Which international law are you referring to? Is there a clause, page or section you can refer us to?

What part of a hard Brexit would stop people declaring themselves Irish?

GFA became international law when it was registered with the UN. Any breach of it can be prosecuted at the International Court of Justice in the Hague, which is under the auspices of the UN.

GFA presents two main problems to proponents of a hard brexit - firstly it states that there must be regulatory alignment between ROI and NI, plainly impossible under the no deal Brexit envisaged by the ERG.

Secondly, and dealing with your last question, the paradox presented by the GFA's solution to identity is incompatible with a hard brexit. Look at this way, a Northern Irish person declares themselves as Irish and gets an Irish passport. However, the holding of that passport, under the GFA,  in no way takes away their right to citizenship of the UK. Are they to be considered like Polish ex pats in London, where it is envisaged there will be a derogation of their standing or the rights accruing to them under UK law as EU citizens living in the UK? Do they still have full access to the welfare state as UK citizens do? But as Europeans, do they have the right to access the EU legal system whilst living in NI, all the way up to and including the ECJ and the ECHR?

These are big questions and I'm not a lawyer but you can guarantee that the UK does not want to have to defend the derogation of these rights in court, no matter where it is.

[easytiger95]

I think that last reply deals with some of your questions as well trailer.

[Harold Disgracey]

This is a good bit of background reading.
https://travellermovement.org.uk/equality-human-rights?download=67:dec-2017-brexit-and-irish-citizens-how-to-safeguard-the-rights-of-irish-citizens-in-an-uncertain-future

[easytiger95]

I see Yvette Cooper is going to use tomorrow to try and kill no deal once and for all.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/02/mps-seek-to-stop-no-deal-brexit-by-tabling-article-50-bill

[Harold Disgracey]

[upmonaghansayswe]

Just going through the register of votes from last night. Sylvia Hermon voted no to the Customs Union and Common Market motions and yes to Revoke and Confirmatory Referendum. Seems strange.

https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/

[LCohen]

Upshot of the GFA was that Northern Irish residents could choose to be either British or Irish or both - that was the essential fudge that got it over the line. With Brexit that now changes to being British or European or both.

If a hard border materialises (and whilst I'd say the odds of it appearing are slightly increasing, the odds of it being permanent are vanishingly small) than the first thing that will happen is that NI nationalists will sue for their rights as European citizens, which were guaranteed under the GFA. Than you would have the spectacle of HM Government defending itself for repudiating a treaty it signed and ratified under international law. It won't go that far, even in a world of Trump, Johnson and disrespect for institutions. The pendulum swings slow but it does swing, and a revitalised international system a la the post WWII settlement may just be the result of all the facist flirtations of the past decade. And the UN won't want a permanent member of the security council reneging on UN registered treaties.

The "backstop" is a fact. The DUP are now prepared to sacrifice Brexit to maintain the Union. The irony here is delicious - if the DUP support a no-deal Brexit, they precipitate a border poll. If they support a soft Brexit, they risk being knifed in the back by the ERG and cut adrift by the Conservatives, and facing the possibility of the most left wing and republican-sympathetic Prime Minister ever - who might just call a border poll.

It is remarkable that the only principled stand they could have made, was also the one that was most effective for protecting the status quo - opposing Brexit from the outset. They took Arron Bank's soup despite knowing that leaving the EU, in any form, was poisonous for NI business and agriculture and they did it because they could foresee no consequences - Brexit would be defeated but they would be poster children for the burgeoning far right with dark money for all. Unfortunately for them, they won. And now they are squirming.

If I was Sinn Fein, I wouldn't be doing anything. When your opponents are setting themselves on fire, do not hand them a bucket of water. Theresa May said last week that NI was unprepared for a hard Brexit because of the lack of an assembly. The DUP cried foul straight away. Because they know what it coming. There will be a reckoning after all this is over, and the hegemony the Unionists currently enjoy in NI because of their numbers in Westminster will come to an end, and the Tories will be looking for any scape goat they can find.

Stay out of the way and let them at it.

So let a "no deal" Brexit happen and f**k all the people in NI? Is that what you think is a good plan?

I'd say the first element of any plan is learning to read. I did not suggest the above. I said that I think that the risk of a No Deal has only increased slightly and even if it does happen, it is completely unsustainable under international law and would not be permanent. Given that, there is no political advantage to Sinn Fein intervening.

The right of all people in Northern Ireland to declare themselves European (Irish) is guaranteed under international law, and can be prosecuted under that law. Which means no deal Brexit for NI is a non runner. And no amount of Brexiteer bluster is going to change that.

The immovable force of the DUP/ERG is about to be introduced to the irresistible force of reality. Stay out of the way of the collision and make sure that you are ready to exploit the situation after the smoke clears.

Which international law are you referring to? Is there a clause, page or section you can refer us to?

What part of a hard Brexit would stop people declaring themselves Irish?

GFA became international law when it was registered with the UN. Any breach of it can be prosecuted at the International Court of Justice in the Hague, which is under the auspices of the UN.

GFA presents two main problems to proponents of a hard brexit - firstly it states that there must be regulatory alignment between ROI and NI, plainly impossible under the no deal Brexit envisaged by the ERG.

Secondly, and dealing with your last question, the paradox presented by the GFA's solution to identity is incompatible with a hard brexit. Look at this way, a Northern Irish person declares themselves as Irish and gets an Irish passport. However, the holding of that passport, under the GFA,  in no way takes away their right to citizenship of the UK. Are they to be considered like Polish ex pats in London, where it is envisaged there will be a derogation of their standing or the rights accruing to them under UK law as EU citizens living in the UK? Do they still have full access to the welfare state as UK citizens do? But as Europeans, do they have the right to access the EU legal system whilst living in NI, all the way up to and including the ECJ and the ECHR?

These are big questions and I'm not a lawyer but you can guarantee that the UK does not want to have to defend the derogation of these rights in court, no matter where it is.

Completely agree that GFA is international and binding

The issue is that a hard Brexit is not in itself a breach of GFA. It creates the conditions and incentive to breach but that doesn't make it a breach. Remember the bulk (but not all) of the proponents of a hard Brexit or those willing to risk it don't want to never have a deal. But they think (if think is not being overly generous to them) that outside the EU and with the debt settlement and budget contribution threats removed that they can strike a better deal with EU I.e. the EU blink first. They might even be right but it's not a risk I would take. But outside the EU and with no deal they can take steps to conform to GFA whilst negotiating a future deal with the EU. They can stay within ECHR and voluntarily follow ECJ judgements and EU regulations. Remember the first step after repealing the 1972 Act is to implement a new bill that immediately puts all existing EU law into UK law.

The UK already grants right to Irish citizens that are not granted to any other non Uk national and grants other rights more quickly to Irish citizens. They can keep treating Irish differently. A hard Brexit doesn't automatically end all of this

[LCohen]

Just going through the register of votes from last night. Sylvia Hermon voted no to the Customs Union and Common Market motions and yes to Revoke and Confirmatory Referendum. Seems strange.

https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/

She wasn't alone. That is not to say if the options narrowed further - say customs union vs May's deal or vs no deal that she and others wouldn't then back a CU

[screenexile]

All a bit crazy at the minute but the votes yesterday mean nothing. The Withdrawal Agreement has to be passed regardless of Customs Union/Common Market 2.0/Norway +/Canada ++ etc.

Even if there's no deal and the UK then approach the EU for a deal the Withdrawal agreement will be the first thing ratified.

My own opinion is we'll get a longer extension and within that time there will be a General Election or peoples vote.

We're not going to hear the end of Brexit for at least another 2-3 years!

PS. Check out @NinaDschick who seems to have the whole situation sussed out.

[LCohen]

Nothing would surprise me. May could address the nation tonight announcing a general election or a no deal Brexit

[Aaron Boone]

Nothing would surprise me. May could address the nation tonight announcing a general election or a no deal Brexit

Or to give out about MP's not doing what she wants again.

[screenexile]

Nothing would surprise me. May could address the nation tonight announcing a general election or a no deal Brexit

Or to give out about MP's not doing what she wants again.

There's a statement imminent anyway!!

[Tony Baloney]

Nothing would surprise me. May could address the nation tonight announcing a general election or a no deal Brexit

General Election would be very problematic for the Conservatives considering the just about got over the line last time, with some local help and that was before they ripped themselves apart. If anyone else was in charge of Labour they'd be a shoo in for a GE, but I'm not sure a GE will help. Nor do I think a second referendum helps as it would likely result in a Remain vote (65-35 if I was guessing). Best of three?

[mouview]

Tacking to a softer Brexit...

[trailer]

Well that was clear as mud. Maybe with consensus with Corbyn the looney lefty, who lets not forget his a bigger Brexiteer than most Tories, they can get the withdrawal agreement passed. One thing which is clear is the withdrawal agreement is the only show in town.

f**king madness.