Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[screenexile]

Iv all the non tories voted as a single bloc. would they have enough to vote down a gov. bill?

Sure there are Tories that are pro remain

Not anymore!

[Milltown Row2]

Nor Ballymena or east Belfast but I'd imagine it'll be a a straight poll and anything over 50% will be enough. Though it's at least 10 years away in my opinion

You can add a zero to that, in my opinion. In the meantime, DUP voters switching to Alliance doesn't change anything.

Sorry what I meant to say, was that was just to have a poll, I can't see it being passed first or second time around

Milltown out of curiosity what do you think the % would be in a border poll??

Difficult to predict, you are in the reality of a sectarian head count and who'll win those middle ground unionists votes and happy where they are catholic's !

The first poll could be as bad as 60/40.

[Mourne Red]

Nor Ballymena or east Belfast but I'd imagine it'll be a a straight poll and anything over 50% will be enough. Though it's at least 10 years away in my opinion

You can add a zero to that, in my opinion. In the meantime, DUP voters switching to Alliance doesn't change anything.

Sorry what I meant to say, was that was just to have a poll, I can't see it being passed first or second time around

Milltown out of curiosity what do you think the % would be in a border poll??

Difficult to predict, you are in the reality of a sectarian head count and who'll win those middle ground unionists votes and happy where they are catholic's !

The first poll could be as bad as 60/40.

I was thinking around those figures myself, if that's the case could be a couple of generations before a United Ireland would be good odds to happen - Probably comes down too where people are going to get the most money from?

[Milltown Row2]

Nor Ballymena or east Belfast but I'd imagine it'll be a a straight poll and anything over 50% will be enough. Though it's at least 10 years away in my opinion

You can add a zero to that, in my opinion. In the meantime, DUP voters switching to Alliance doesn't change anything.

Sorry what I meant to say, was that was just to have a poll, I can't see it being passed first or second time around

Milltown out of curiosity what do you think the % would be in a border poll??

Difficult to predict, you are in the reality of a sectarian head count and who'll win those middle ground unionists votes and happy where they are catholic's !

The first poll could be as bad as 60/40.

I was thinking around those figures myself, if that's the case could be a couple of generations before a United Ireland would be good odds to happen - Probably comes down too where people are going to get the most money from?

I think money is a factor, but can you imagine being an Irishman, going to the polling station and placing that x in they stay box? There's no way you can look at yourself in the mirror after that without feeling a little ashamed, so there would be some last minute decisions on the day

[Tony Baloney]

Personally quite gutted at the results in England and Wales. It's clear this was about Brexit and the people in those areas are steadfastly determined to jump off the cliff. I find it astonishing but I can understand it given the wall to wall coverage it has received.

As usual some unfair and inaccurate comment on Corbyn. I think he has done a tremendous job in making Labour stand for something again. I believe completely in the policies put forward and I know they are the only solution to growing wealth inequality, the jobs timebomb and the climate crisis. Eventually the people will realise this - hopefully before it's too late. I don't think he lost the election on his policy platform - the policies are popular. Brexit meant all bets were off. The Tories, like Trump in 2016, worked out what had to be said to win and the did it relentlessly. A winning strategy perhaps but that's a sad reflection on where we're at I'd say. Corbyn will go but Labour must stay the course with a modern social democratic alternative. Nothing worse than a country with two main parties offering the same.

The silver lining to the cloud is that a United Ireland is closer. I only hope and pray when it comes about we've moved away from the Varadkar/Murphy Tory style politics on this island and our kids get the United Ireland that brave people a century ago envisioned.

Its not about Brexit, its about racism and the uneducated little englander blaming Johnny Foreigner for all his woes.

Corbyn's policies were so popular he lost the election by a massive margin! A hard left Labour is going nowhere fast. Only a centre left Labour will be returned to power anytime soon. They should write this off as a failed experiment.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Milltown out of curiosity what do you think the % would be in a border poll??

Difficult to predict, you are in the reality of a sectarian head count and who'll win those middle ground unionists votes and happy where they are catholic's !

The first poll could be as bad as 60/40.

I think the main obstacles to swing voters UI in any border poll right now would be:

1 NHS
2 Cost of living increase
3 Fear of job security for private sector
4 Fear of job security for public sector

Are there any others?  [I've split 3 & 4 as they are driven by different factors]


Conceivably:
1. Boris could be about to sell the NHS out to the yanks. That'll f**k the NHS before taking into account tory cuts (especially tory cuts to areas that are not tory voting england)
2. He could be about to fire up tariffs and trade borders which will increase the cost of living.
3. Those tariffs and borders will lead to job losses in private sector.
4. They had on the side of a bus "We send £10 billion a year to the EU, lets fund our NHS instead" - how hard is it to paint out EU and write up NI on the same bus? The starting point to that would be public sector job cuts.

[five points]

In theory, yes. In practice, when push comes to shove, hard to see it happening.

In practice - when it comes to putting food on the table - it is easy to see it happening.

Rugby types rarely have to worry about putting food on the table.

[RadioGAAGAA]

In theory, yes. In practice, when push comes to shove, hard to see it happening.

In practice - when it comes to putting food on the table - it is easy to see it happening.

Rugby types rarely have to worry about putting food on the table.

Are you for real?

Get your head out of your hole.

[five points]

Are you for real?

Get your head out of your hole.

[Milltown Row2]

Milltown out of curiosity what do you think the % would be in a border poll??

Difficult to predict, you are in the reality of a sectarian head count and who'll win those middle ground unionists votes and happy where they are catholic's !

The first poll could be as bad as 60/40.

I think the main obstacles to swing voters UI in any border poll right now would be:

1 NHS
2 Cost of living increase
3 Fear of job security for private sector
4 Fear of job security for public sector

Are there any others?  [I've split 3 & 4 as they are driven by different factors]


Conceivably:
1. Boris could be about to sell the NHS out to the yanks. That'll f**k the NHS before taking into account tory cuts (especially tory cuts to areas that are not tory voting england)
2. He could be about to fire up tariffs and trade borders which will increase the cost of living.
3. Those tariffs and borders will lead to job losses in private sector.
4. They had on the side of a bus "We send £10 billion a year to the EU, lets fund our NHS instead" - how hard is it to paint out EU and write up NI on the same bus? The starting point to that would be public sector job cuts.

You've left out ones who are reliant on benefits, free housing, pensions and so on.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Are you for real?

Get your head out of your hole.

Do you honestly think folks that go along to rugby matches don't have the same living problems everyone else does?

[five points]

I think the main obstacles to swing voters UI in any border poll right now would be:

1 NHS
2 Cost of living increase
3 Fear of job security for private sector
4 Fear of job security for public sector

Are there any others?  [I've split 3 & 4 as they are driven by different factors]

All good points. The NHS one particularly, the southern health service is in rag order and won't be getting better anytime soon.

Conceivably:
1. Boris could be about to sell the NHS out to the yanks. That'll f**k the NHS before taking into account tory cuts (especially tory cuts to areas that are not tory voting england)
2. He could be about to fire up tariffs and trade borders which will increase the cost of living.
3. Those tariffs and borders will lead to job losses in private sector.
4. They had on the side of a bus "We send £10 billion a year to the EU, lets fund our NHS instead" - how hard is it to paint out EU and write up NI on the same bus? The starting point to that would be public sector job cuts.

Nos. 1 to 3 would all be irrational actions. No rational leader goes out deliberately to screw the people who put him there.

No. 4 is possible in theory but in practice GB exiting NI would cost them a fortune.

[RadioGAAGAA]

I think the main obstacles to swing voters UI in any border poll right now would be:

1 NHS
2 Cost of living increase
3 Fear of job security for private sector
4 Fear of job security for public sector

Are there any others?  [I've split 3 & 4 as they are driven by different factors]


Conceivably:
1. Boris could be about to sell the NHS out to the yanks. That'll f**k the NHS before taking into account tory cuts (especially tory cuts to areas that are not tory voting england)
2. He could be about to fire up tariffs and trade borders which will increase the cost of living.
3. Those tariffs and borders will lead to job losses in private sector.
4. They had on the side of a bus "We send £10 billion a year to the EU, lets fund our NHS instead" - how hard is it to paint out EU and write up NI on the same bus? The starting point to that would be public sector job cuts.

You've left out ones who are reliant on benefits, free housing, pensions and so on.

Good point.

But I think that probably would be dealt with under the same as (4). If Johnson is getting it tight at home, he ain't gonna be pandering to folks in NI for benefits.


Regarding public sector pensions - any deal for a UI will involve the UK continuing to remain responsible for public sector pension accrued during service to the UK. If you emigrate to another country after working in your original country's public sector - your pension isn't funded by where you arrive at.

[five points]

Are you for real?

Get your head out of your hole.

Do you honestly think folks that go along to rugby matches don't have the same living problems everyone else does?

Calm down. It wasnt me who introduced the distinction here between "IRFU areas" and "IFA areas".

[weareros]

Nor Ballymena or east Belfast but I'd imagine it'll be a a straight poll and anything over 50% will be enough. Though it's at least 10 years away in my opinion

You can add a zero to that, in my opinion. In the meantime, DUP voters switching to Alliance doesn't change anything.

Sorry what I meant to say, was that was just to have a poll, I can't see it being passed first or second time around

Milltown out of curiosity what do you think the % would be in a border poll??

Difficult to predict, you are in the reality of a sectarian head count and who'll win those middle ground unionists votes and happy where they are catholic's !

The first poll could be as bad as 60/40.

Have to say I doubt that. With all the rallies the Unionists/Loyalists did in their town halls and their Ulster halls for this election, and still failed fairly miserably, it is hard to see how a Pro-UK vote would exceed 50%. While the overall nationalist vote is down, much of that can be attributed to conservative Catholics in rural areas not voting for the liberal nationalist parties. They came out in droves in the only two areas where they needed to do that: North Belfast and South Belfast. They would do the same for a border poll. The Unionist vote was not able to pull that off. Add to that the percentage of Alliance voters that would see a border poll as the only route back to EU. Then there's a few other factors, most notably that England and Scotland are going in their own separate nationalistic directions. I think a pro-UI vote would be as high as 55% if held in the morning and would match close enough the Brexit vote.But practically, the vote is 5-10 years away.