Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[gallsman]

Final YouGov poll gives the Tories a majority of 28, which is within the margin of error.

Tory 339
Labour 231
SNP 41
Lib Dem 15

Polling comes with 2 health warnings

1. Polling error
2. Tactical voting

Of course taking polling numbers as gospel would be absolutely idiotic. Ignoring them altogether would be even more so.

The possibility of a hung parliament being within the margin of error is significant and grounds for some small optimism though.

[seafoid]

Final YouGov poll gives the Tories a majority of 28, which is within the margin of error.

Tory 339
Labour 231
SNP 41
Lib Dem 15

Polling comes with 2 health warnings

1. Polling error
2. Tactical voting

The tories are getting back in. It's going to happen SF. I don't want it, you dont want it but we didn't want brexit either.

There is interesting stuff happening in places like Workington (8% Brexit Party expected to split the leave vote and keep the tory out and Putney (intensive Labour canvassing expected to keep the Tory out)

[seafoid]

https://dorseteye.com/jonathan-pie-speaks-more-truth-in-5-minutes-than-laura-kuenssberg-and-robert-peston-have-in-their-whole-careers/

[yellowcard]

Hung parliament was 4/1 now moved into 2/1 so it is increasingly likely although a small Conservative majority is still most likely on the markets. 

[gallsman]

Final YouGov poll gives the Tories a majority of 28, which is within the margin of error.

Tory 339
Labour 231
SNP 41
Lib Dem 15

Polling comes with 2 health warnings

1. Polling error
2. Tactical voting

The tories are getting back in. It's going to happen SF. I don't want it, you dont want it but we didn't want brexit either.

There is interesting stuff happening in places like Workington (8% Brexit Party expected to split the leave vote and keep the tory out and Putney (intensive Labour canvassing expected to keep the Tory out)

The problem is that any Labour gains from the Tories are doing to be outnumbered by seats going the other direction by a factor of 10.

[bennydorano]

Really shitty day weather wise forecast for the majority of England 2moro, could be a big factor.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Jesus Christ, Kuenssberg tweeted what she had heard. Just like Peston and even f**king Tom Newton Dunn. This is how Twitter works. They didn't report it as fact and when it was apparent that it wasn't true, I know Kuenssberg at least apologised.

Her job is not to be an investigative reporter and tell you the truth. Her job is to report on the politics going on around everything. The conservatives making false claims about someone getting punched is clearly politics.

Going back to your example of the weather, if it's raining outside, her job isn't to tell you it's raining outside. Her job is to tell you that there's a clampet who claims it isn't.

If people want live, rolling fast-paced Twitter style news they have to accept that tweets on live, unfolding events won't have had the benefit of editorial scrutiny. That's just simply the world we live in, not evidence of a pro Tory media conspiracy.

WISE UP FFS.

Its her job to report the truth. She cannot do the 2nd bolded bit without identifying what is the truth!

If she wants to just report what a political party tells her - then she needs to resign and join the PR dept of said party.

[Hound]

Final YouGov poll gives the Tories a majority of 28, which is within the margin of error.

Tory 339
Labour 231
SNP 41
Lib Dem 15

Polling comes with 2 health warnings

1. Polling error
2. Tactical voting

Of course taking polling numbers as gospel would be absolutely idiotic. Ignoring them altogether would be even more so.

The possibility of a hung parliament being within the margin of error is significant and grounds for some small optimism though.

Very worst for Ireland is a hung parliament with DUP supporting BJ, with the caveat that Brexit border moves from Irish Sea to Ireland.

Tory small majority means current Brexit deal goes through.

Tory big majority could see BrINO as a runner. Taking business concerns on board and delaying implementation of WTO until a trade deal is done, and staying within customs union until the trade deal is signed and sealed. Aiming for it all to be done during the life of the government.

Hung parliament with Corbyn as leader of a rainbow coalition would be very interesting. New referendum. If Brexit wins again (likely) then current deal goes through IMO. If Remain wins, then all is well again in the world 

I'd love to see Corbyn win to see what happens to the UK economy.
   

[gallsman]

Hung parliament with Corbyn as leader of a rainbow coalition would be very interesting. New referendum. If Brexit wins again (likely) then current deal goes through IMO. If Remain wins, then all is well again in the world 

That's not the Labour position though - it's to go back to Europe (again) for another (I know) deal and then put that one to a referendum.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Hung parliament with Corbyn as leader of a rainbow coalition would be very interesting. New referendum. If Brexit wins again (likely) then current deal goes through IMO. If Remain wins, then all is well again in the world 

That's not the Labour position though - it's to go back to Europe (again) for another (I know) deal and then put that one to a referendum.

Which to me is only logical.

You don't sign on the dotted line to buy a car 3 years ahead of knowing anything about what the car will be like.

[johnnycool]

Hung parliament with Corbyn as leader of a rainbow coalition would be very interesting. New referendum. If Brexit wins again (likely) then current deal goes through IMO. If Remain wins, then all is well again in the world 

That's not the Labour position though - it's to go back to Europe (again) for another (I know) deal and then put that one to a referendum.

If Labour do get in a position then it'll be a far softer Brexit than what's currently on the table.

If there's a hung Parliament where Boris needs the DUP support, I still think he'll hammer on with his "oven ready" deal which got past the first phase last time without the DUP but he wanted it railroaded through in double quick time and that's where he came unstuck.
He'll appease the DUP with a few peerages later.

Boris with a slim majority same as above minus the DUP peerages.

Boris with a large majority I think the hoor might go full hard Brexit knowing that a few "one nation" Tories can be dropped off and he'll still get it through.

I really can't see a good outcome for the DUP on this one and TBH NI is pretty much shafted unless Labour get in.

[Aristo 60]

Hung parliament with Corbyn as leader of a rainbow coalition would be very interesting. New referendum. If Brexit wins again (likely) then current deal goes through IMO. If Remain wins, then all is well again in the world 

That's not the Labour position though - it's to go back to Europe (again) for another (I know) deal and then put that one to a referendum.

Which to me is only logical.

You don't sign on the dotted line to buy a car 3 years ahead of knowing anything about what the car will be like.

You do for really nice cars

[seafoid]

Final YouGov poll gives the Tories a majority of 28, which is within the margin of error.

Tory 339
Labour 231
SNP 41
Lib Dem 15

Polling comes with 2 health warnings

1. Polling error
2. Tactical voting

The tories are getting back in. It's going to happen SF. I don't want it, you dont want it but we didn't want brexit either.

There is interesting stuff happening in places like Workington (8% Brexit Party expected to split the leave vote and keep the tory out and Putney (intensive Labour canvassing expected to keep the Tory out)

The problem is that any Labour gains from the Tories are doing to be outnumbered by seats going the other direction by a factor of 10.

I  think the Tories took on a lot by rebranding as English Nationalists and targeting Labour seats in the North while ignoring Liberal tories in the South.
It's a risky strategy at a time when the economy is struggling.

[seafoid]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/11/revealed-49-seats-brexit-party-splitting-leave-vote-risking/

Revealed: The 49 seats where the Brexit Party is splitting the Leave vote and risking a hung parliament

Nigel Farage is under increasing pressure to stand down Brexit Party candidates


Camilla Tominey, associate editor  Jack Walters
11 DECEMBER 2019 • 11:18AM

The Telegraph has identified nearly 50 seats where the Brexit Party appears to be blocking a potential Tory victory, piling further pressure on Nigel Farage to stand candidates down after pollsters refused to rule out a hung parliament on Thursday.

The Brexit Party leader is already facing calls to put country before party after two of his prospective MPs stood down in Lincoln and Redcar - which are both on the list of viable Tory targets - to make way for the Conservatives.

Today, Brexit Party founder Catherine Blaiklock has revealed she is voting Tory and has described Mr Farage's strategy as a "disaster," saying: "Nigel has failed catastrophically, because you're not going to get a WTO Brexit. You have to compromise ... If you want Brexit, you must vote Tory now." It came after Reece Wilkes stood down in Lincoln and Jacqui Cummins said she would no longer be "actively contesting" Redcar.

Taking the projections of You Gov's latest MRP poll on Tuesday night, which predicts voting intention in every constituency in the UK, analysis suggests that there are a total of 49 seats where the Brexit Party appear to be playing into Labour's hands by splitting the Leave vote.

The constituencies - which are largely across the so-called 'Red Wall' of the Midlands and the North, include Tony Blair's old Sedgefield seat, Bolsover, which has been held by Labour's Dennis Skinner since 1970 and North West Durham which has never voted Conservative before.


The research comes after Mr Farage doubled down on Tuesday by urging Tory Brexit supporters to vote tactically for his party in more than 100 constituencies he said the Conservatives "have not won in living memory and are not going to win in this election".

The Brexit Party then published a list of 132 seats where they are standing candidates and the Conservatives have not won in 50 years, urging leavers "not to waste your vote".

But the Telegraph seat analysis suggests that the Tories do stand a chance of winning some of these seats if the Brexit Party was not running against them while Mr Farage's MPs appear to have no chance of being elected in any of the constituencies.

In North West Durham, for example, Labour are currently in the lead on 41 per cent, with the Conservatives trailing on 36 per cent. But if the Brexit Party's 11 per cent was taken out of the equation - and considering the fact that their supporters are leavers not remainers - the seat could feasibly swing to the Tories for the first time in half a century.

The list also shows that the Brexit Party is not in the lead in any of the constituencies. Even in Hartlepool, where Brexit Party chairman Richard Tice is the candidate, the party is on third place on 22 per cent compared to Labour on 39 per cent and the Conservatives on on 31 per cent.


Former Tory Party chairman Brandon Lewis told the Telegraph: "This election and latest polls show that if people want Brexit done there is only one way to ensure that, which is to vote Conservative. A vote for the Brexit Party will only lead to a hung parliament and a Labour victory."

This morning the Brexit Central website, set up Matthew Elliott, the former chief executive of Vote Leave, urged Brexit Party voters to support the Tories, saying it was the only way to avoid a hung parliament that would "kibosh Brexit entirely".

Writing on the website with editor Jonathan Isaby, a former Telegraph journalist, the pair of staunch Brexiteers said: "We now find ourselves at a watershed moment in which there are only two scenarios.

"The first is that Boris Johnson secures a Conservative majority at this election, puts his Withdrawal Agreement Bill in front of MPs before Christmas and then secures our withdrawal from the EU by the end of January.

"The second scenario is that Boris Johnson fails to get a Commons majority and an assembled hotpotch of Labour, SNP and Lib Dem MPs ensure that the Brexit we voted for in 2016 is blocked and a new referendum is held between Remain and a version of Remain they would call Brexit. And that referendum would in any case be rigged by giving the vote to 16-year-olds and EU nationals.


Lance Forman MEP
✔
@LanceForman
All Brexit Party candidates should follow Reece Wilkes' honourable and brave decision to ensure Brexit happens and to stop an antisemitic Marxist coming to power.

Well done Reece. 👏👏https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7774035/Brexit-Party-election-candidate-vows-stand-avoid-splitting-Leave-vote.html ...


Brexit Party election candidate vows to stand down
Brexit Party candidate Reece Wilkes, who is standing in marginal Lincoln, urged voters to back the Tory hopeful to make sure Brexit happens.

dailymail.co.uk

"We are well aware that some of our readers are not totally enamoured of the Johnson deal. Of course it isn't perfect. But it is the only form of Brexit on offer. The only alternative to the Johnson deal is no Brexit at all.

"Tempting as a vote for them may be to Brexiteers, the Brexit Party are not in a position to form a government. In fact, every vote for the Brexit Party - or any party other than the Conservatives - is simply one more vote towards creating another hung parliament that would kibosh Brexit entirely."

A Brexit Party spokesman told the Telegraph the MRP seat projections "don't translate as you are suggesting", adding: "It doesn't work like that. The people who are voting for us are not Tory voters they are Labour voters.  If we don't stand those people either stay at home or switch back to Labour - they don't go and vote for the Tories. The Brexit Party isn't an entry drug for Conservatism. If the Tory party can't win against a discredited, profligate, anti-Semitic Marxist, it's not our fault."

[RadioGAAGAA]

Hung parliament with Corbyn as leader of a rainbow coalition would be very interesting. New referendum. If Brexit wins again (likely) then current deal goes through IMO. If Remain wins, then all is well again in the world 

That's not the Labour position though - it's to go back to Europe (again) for another (I know) deal and then put that one to a referendum.

Which to me is only logical.

You don't sign on the dotted line to buy a car 3 years ahead of knowing anything about what the car will be like.

You do for really nice cars

Thats the folks with more money than sense.


Which I suppose given who will stand to gain from Brexit, makes some sense that they think its rational.