Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[imtommygunn]

You say they are now... were they not always or what said they weren't?

The dup weren't yes but that was the party not the voters surely?

[seafoid]

Lucid Talk poll in todays Sunday Times:

Nationalists: 2% want to leave EU & 74% want to remain
Unionists: 38% want to leave EU & 41% want to remain

6% of Unionists & 7% of nationalists are in favour of Boris Johnsons deal.

The big take from this is that Unionists are now majority in favour of remain. How will this translate into election votes. Logically you would think that this would translate into a backlash against the DUP but I'm not sure that this will actually happen at all.

You might see last minute switching if the Tories are doing well in the polls.
A Tory pro Brexit majority would really hurt NI. The DUP made a horse's arse of Brexit before getting shafted. Normally you would expect the alternatives to benefit.

[yellowcard]

You say they are now... were they not always or what said they weren't?

The dup weren't yes but that was the party not the voters surely?

The Brexit referendum itself.

[imtommygunn]

Ni said no to brexit though? Were there polls or something to say this?

[playwiththewind1st]

Ni said no to brexit though? Were there polls or something to say this?

Doesn't really matter. DUP wanted 'out' & 'out' it will be. EU, Treaty of Rome, ergo massive Papish plot, from the outset. That's democracy N Ireland style for ya.

[imtommygunn]

Yeah they say out but i never thought unionism ion the whole said out. They just say what their backers say.

[Jell 0 Biafra]

https://www.jewishvoiceforlabour.org.uk/article/when-jews-are-just-fodder-for-the-tory-propaganda-machine/

Excellent piece by Antony Lerman (former founding director of the Institute for Jewish Policy Research, Associate Editor of the international academic journal on racism Patterns of Prejudice)

[bennydorano]

Latest Survation poll
Con 45%
Lab 31%
Lib 11 %
Brex 4%

[seafoid]

Latest Survation poll
Con 45%
Lab 31%
Lib 11 %
Brex 4%

If the perceived Tory lead is too big Lib Dem voters will switch to Labour to stop Brexit.

[maddog]

Latest Survation poll
Con 45%
Lab 31%
Lib 11 %
Brex 4%

If that is anywhere near the result this place has lost it's marbles. Maybe time to get out.

[seafoid]

Latest Survation poll
Con 45%
Lab 31%
Lib 11 %
Brex 4%

If that is anywhere near the result this place has lost it's marbles. Maybe time to get out.

https://www.ft.com/content/4cc8e70c-0c4f-11ea-b2d6-9bf4d1957a67

"Yet the recent record of the pollsters is not strong. Blindsided by the Conservative majority in 2015, some polling companies overcorrected in 2017, resulting in an underestimation of the Labour vote share by five points. Add to that the mixed bag of results on the 2016 EU referendum, and it means that the stakes are also high for the polling industry."

[LeoMc]

Latest Survation poll
Con 45%
Lab 31%
Lib 11 %
Brex 4%

If the perceived Tory lead is too big Lib Dem voters will switch to Labour to stop Brexit.

Another way of looking at it

Tories on 41. Labour on 33. LD on 12 is key.  Remain is thus 45. 45> 41



To guarantee Remain , a last minute surge to Labour would be necessary. All down to tactical voting now.

Why swing to Labour, why not swing to the LD's where they have the best chance of unseating the Tories?

[imtommygunn]

How will swinging to labour stop brexit??

[Saffrongael]

How will swinging to labour stop brexit??

It won't

[imtommygunn]

How will swinging to labour stop brexit??

It won't

Exactly. Basically what is SF talking about.