HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IN A BORDER POLL?

[keep her low this half]

Wouldn't be a big fan of Bruton but I thought he was very sensible

Brolly flunked that big time

Went the Angelo route

Didn't work at all, unsurprisingly

Claire Byrne is very distracting, a standing ovation indeed, but make sure not to stand up

To be fair Brolly was pointing out the anti abortion homophobia of the DUP and should have been asked to provide examples, which he did today on twitter.

He was right. People like Campbell are horrid individuals. But there's lots of Catholics North and South, and in the GAA who are homophobic. There's still a huge number who are anti-abortion in the South. And many Catholic Sinn Fein and SDLP voters in North and FF/FG voters in South are anti-abortion. Northern Catholics are more conservative. The Dana's of the world. In an eventual United Ireland there will be a bigger population of anti-abortion and anti-marriage equality. So not sure what Joe's point was. Those Gregory Campbell views won't go away in a UI - they will only get stronger. And the left/right divide on social issues will grow more intense.

Thought it was a good show overall. Was a bit surprised that both Mary Lou and Leo were cagey on the flag question and anthem. It's as well to be honest with the people and say there will be a new flag. But I suppose neither wanted a headline that they were getting rid of it. Got to protect those Southern votes.

To be honest I think the politicians are behind the people on this. Every opinion poll in the south has re-unification over 70% when don't knows are excluded. FF and FG are playing it long due to party political interests but recent contributions from Jim O Callaghan and Bertie Ahern as well as Leo's nuanced performance last night tend to suggest both parties are adjusting their position. Very surprised that a citizens assembly was not discussed last night during all the talk of planning. Micheal has hung himself on a hook saying no border poll during this Dail and as a result is the most negative Southern politician at present (excluding the retired John Bruton). Decent program overall although I thought Byrne was too keen to talk about flags for a headline and not address schools, health, economy which are the actual things that will affect the floating vote.

[five points]

RTE had to pay out 20k just last week because of what that far right troll I won't name said when he was on PrimeTime recently

They didn't have to. There is no such thing in law as defaming a political party.  RTE freely chose to pay out that money.

[sid waddell]

I've seen a lot of people saying 'we can't afford the North' but surely on an island our size we'd be better off having an All Ireland economy? Are studies like the following nonsense?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/arid-20388959.html

I'm not an economist but surely it stands to reason that after 100 years, most of which has been spent as an economic failure, the move towards an all-island economy can only benefit the North.

I don't think anyone denys that this will improve production in the North. However, consumption in the North is supported by a bung from Westminster every year, and therein lies the debate.

If an agreed Ireland can be achieved the costs associated will be resolved. Britain would pay to be rid of us.

I agree that Britain will be glad to get rid of us and should chip in accordingly. However, there is a confounding factor in that they do not want rid of Scotland and a careful formula is needed if NI is to get a lot of money after leaving and Scotland is not.

One thing people forget is that Westminster will want to saddle the north with a portion of the debt which the UK currently has built up. This will happen with Scotland as well if they do vote to leave, do not think for one minute that Westminster will just say "ok chaps off you go"

As I said if NI was alone I suspect the British would be open to negotiation on these matters, as NI contributes nothing to the ability to pay the debt at present,  but Scotland confuses things.

Perhaps the debt could be taken on by anyone wanting to remain British in the 6 counties, that should cause some thought among some.

Scotland will be gone before they turn to here.

That's a scenario, that Scotland heads off soon and that they are sorted. Then Scotland leaving is bound to rev things up here.
However, it would be wise if some smart person devises a financial model that gives the right answer for Scotland and NI, and if that was used for Scotland to avoid any disputes afterwards. The only other observation is that model based on the present contribution of the place would also be quite favourable to Wales. The Welsh will not head off on their own, but if Scotland and NI both leave they might well want to do so as well.

Personally I think Scotland leaving is a prerequisite for NI voting for unification, at least in say, the next 30/40 years or so

NI Unionists have a much bigger identification with Scotland than with England

In the same way that Brexit was a major sea change in terms of making the environment for Scottish independence much more favourable, if the Scots leave, it could cause a sea change in how a lot of Unionists think about the Union - because the Union would effectively no longer exist - it would likely cause a domino effect, with the Welsh maybe wanting to leave too,

And whatever happened NI and Scotland would be in separate states for ever more

Sturgeon being cleared yesterday could be an important event in terms of the future history of this island

[weareros]

Wouldn't be a big fan of Bruton but I thought he was very sensible

Brolly flunked that big time

Went the Angelo route

Didn't work at all, unsurprisingly

Claire Byrne is very distracting, a standing ovation indeed, but make sure not to stand up

To be fair Brolly was pointing out the anti abortion homophobia of the DUP and should have been asked to provide examples, which he did today on twitter.

He was right. People like Campbell are horrid individuals. But there's lots of Catholics North and South, and in the GAA who are homophobic. There's still a huge number who are anti-abortion in the South. And many Catholic Sinn Fein and SDLP voters in North and FF/FG voters in South are anti-abortion. Northern Catholics are more conservative. The Dana's of the world. In an eventual United Ireland there will be a bigger population of anti-abortion and anti-marriage equality. So not sure what Joe's point was. Those Gregory Campbell views won't go away in a UI - they will only get stronger. And the left/right divide on social issues will grow more intense.

Thought it was a good show overall. Was a bit surprised that both Mary Lou and Leo were cagey on the flag question and anthem. It's as well to be honest with the people and say there will be a new flag. But I suppose neither wanted a headline that they were getting rid of it. Got to protect those Southern votes.

To be honest I think the politicians are behind the people on this. Every opinion poll in the south has re-unification over 70% when don't knows are excluded. FF and FG are playing it long due to party political interests but recent contributions from Jim O Callaghan and Bertie Ahern as well as Leo's nuanced performance last night tend to suggest both parties are adjusting their position. Very surprised that a citizens assembly was not discussed last night during all the talk of planning. Micheal has hung himself on a hook saying no border poll during this Dail and as a result is the most negative Southern politician at present (excluding the retired John Bruton). Decent program overall although I thought Byrne was too keen to talk about flags for a headline and not address schools, health, economy which are the actual things that will affect the floating vote.

Agreed on pols behind. In fact if Martin had an ounce of strategic sense, he'd be eager to get all this sorted including the border poll date before he leaves government - and be remembered for something groundbreaking. In fact, if Leo survives the leak scandal I'd be willing to bet he will do it in his 2 year term and part of his reelection pitch will be, the middle minority in North will only vote for a UI (let's say it's 2029/9 which would fall in term of next gov if current survives full term) if FG are in power as we are not threatening to the Middle. Not saying he's right, but that is how it could play out providing British are willing to play ball.

[armaghniac]

Personally I think Scotland leaving is a prerequisite for NI voting for unification, at least in say, the next 30/40 years or so

NI Unionists have a much bigger identification with Scotland than with England

In the same way that Brexit was a major sea change in terms of making the environment for Scottish independence much more favourable, if the Scots leave, it could cause a sea change in how a lot of Unionists think about the Union - because the Union would effectively no longer exist - it would likely cause a domino effect, with the Welsh maybe wanting to leave too,

And whatever happened NI and Scotland would be in separate states for ever more

Sturgeon being cleared yesterday could be an important event in terms of the future history of this island

Scotland leaving would be influential, but I would still wonder if they will. I have no doubt Scotland will thrive if independent but they have to get from here to there and the UK will definitely be giving them debt and expecting them to pay their own pensions.

If Scotland does not leave I would expect NI to still leave within 30 years. When the core unionist vote becomes one third then all it requires is for nationalists to get organised once.

[seafoid]

The 6 counties are always going to be treated differently because of the polarisation. Currently they are neither fully Irish nor fully British but something in between.
In a United Ireland that would not change.
It will be heartbreaking  for Northern Shinners to live in a country that is not a romantic republic straight out of the Wolfe Tones. 

[sid waddell]

Economics are going to win this argument, people like Bryson who wrap themselves in the flag are not worth wasting time talking to and Gregory will have his house on the market within days of a referendum and relocate to Surrey or somewhere. Its the Andrew Trimble's of this world, educated with young families from both sides need convincing.

I'm working in Dublin with a lad from Portadown who comes from a very loyalist family, would be aware of their history. He was working in London Monday - Friday but wanted to come home for his kids. He was offered a role with the two leading contractors in the North both offering him 50k. He took a role with us in Dublin on 80K euro, I was keeping him going about coming down to Dublin to take Irish money, his answer was "as Neil Diamond said Money Talks ".

I would also notice this boom in the south there is a lot more protestant lads coming down to work Monday to Friday than the Boom of 03-08, we have 3 crews on site one from Bangor, one from Ballymena and one from Enniskillen, wouldn't have seen them before. They are seeing the prosperity and want a bit of the action.

Another big thing coming down the tracks which will have a major impact is as soon as the Pandemic is over the Tories are going to privatise/sell of the NHS, American health providers are already circling. Free Health Care is about the only argument Ian Og or Jim Allister can role out.

Don't think you can draw conclusions that they would vote Yes in a border poll from any of that though

Like, many Irish who have a vote here work in England but if there was a referendum on whether Ireland should leave the EU and join the same economic zone as Britain I highly doubt they'd be voting Yes

People's personal economic decisions about where to live or work remain very much divorced from the united Ireland issue I think

Economic arguments always favour the status quo - the status quo is a known quantity - to change the status quo is a leap of faith

Economic arguments favoured the status quo in the Scottish referendum, the 1995 Quebec independence referendum, and they did with Brexit too - it was blood and soil nationalism and the dangling of fantasy, not solid economic arguments, that won the referendum for Brexit

[yellowcard]

I've seen a lot of people saying 'we can't afford the North' but surely on an island our size we'd be better off having an All Ireland economy? Are studies like the following nonsense?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/arid-20388959.html

I'm not an economist but surely it stands to reason that after 100 years, most of which has been spent as an economic failure, the move towards an all-island economy can only benefit the North.

I don't think anyone denys that this will improve production in the North. However, consumption in the North is supported by a bung from Westminster every year, and therein lies the debate.

If an agreed Ireland can be achieved the costs associated will be resolved. Britain would pay to be rid of us.

I agree that Britain will be glad to get rid of us and should chip in accordingly. However, there is a confounding factor in that they do not want rid of Scotland and a careful formula is needed if NI is to get a lot of money after leaving and Scotland is not.

One thing people forget is that Westminster will want to saddle the north with a portion of the debt which the UK currently has built up. This will happen with Scotland as well if they do vote to leave, do not think for one minute that Westminster will just say "ok chaps off you go"

As I said if NI was alone I suspect the British would be open to negotiation on these matters, as NI contributes nothing to the ability to pay the debt at present,  but Scotland confuses things.

Perhaps the debt could be taken on by anyone wanting to remain British in the 6 counties, that should cause some thought among some.

Scotland will be gone before they turn to here.

That's a scenario, that Scotland heads off soon and that they are sorted. Then Scotland leaving is bound to rev things up here.
However, it would be wise if some smart person devises a financial model that gives the right answer for Scotland and NI, and if that was used for Scotland to avoid any disputes afterwards. The only other observation is that model based on the present contribution of the place would also be quite favourable to Wales. The Welsh will not head off on their own, but if Scotland and NI both leave they might well want to do so as well.

Personally I think Scotland leaving is a prerequisite for NI voting for unification, at least in say, the next 30/40 years or so

NI Unionists have a much bigger identification with Scotland than with England

In the same way that Brexit was a major sea change in terms of making the environment for Scottish independence much more favourable, if the Scots leave, it could cause a sea change in how a lot of Unionists think about the Union - because the Union would effectively no longer exist - it would likely cause a domino effect, with the Welsh maybe wanting to leave too,

And whatever happened NI and Scotland would be in separate states for ever more

Sturgeon being cleared yesterday could be an important event in terms of the future history of this island

Personally I don't think it is a prerequisite at all. Yes, it would make a border poll here virtually inevitable almost immediately but I'd be very surprised if there isn't a border poll here within 30/40 years even if Scotland voted to stay in the UK. It makes far more sense for Scotland to stay inside the UK given the potential issues of a land border which we know all about from the outworkings of Brexit.

[Lar Naparka]

Does anyone here recall Nell McCafferty?
Years ago when Mary Harney was a government minister, Nell appeared on a current affairs program and government policies came up in the discussion. Without warning she passed a sneering remark about Harney's ability to do her job properly since she was more concerned with her drink than her duties.  (These may not have been her exact words but this what she was inferring.)
The presenter cut her off immediately and apologised to her audience, saying RTE dtd not condone her remarks but Mary H sued for defamation and won her case. RTE was also sued and lost heavily.
Ever since then the station has had a very rigid set of protocols. I suppose all stations have their own guidelines for guests appearing on their programs but  Donnybrook is paranoid about this.
So Brolly knew full well that he could not accuse a named, living person who wasn't there to defend himself. IMO, he just might have gotten away with if he'd retracted his remark and maybe passed it off as a slip of the tongue but he didn't and continued to remonstrate even after his sound was cut off. He's been on that station long enough to know the ropes. He had already been taken off the Sunday Game for another breach of RTE guidelines so I can't feel sorry for him.

[Applesisapples]

Wouldn't be a big fan of Bruton but I thought he was very sensible

Brolly flunked that big time

Went the Angelo route

Didn't work at all, unsurprisingly

Claire Byrne is very distracting, a standing ovation indeed, but make sure not to stand up

To be fair Brolly was pointing out the anti abortion homophobia of the DUP and should have been asked to provide examples, which he did today on twitter.

He was right. People like Campbell are horrid individuals. But there's lots of Catholics North and South, and in the GAA who are homophobic. There's still a huge number who are anti-abortion in the South. And many Catholic Sinn Fein and SDLP voters in North and FF/FG voters in South are anti-abortion. Northern Catholics are more conservative. The Dana's of the world. In an eventual United Ireland there will be a bigger population of anti-abortion and anti-marriage equality. So not sure what Joe's point was. Those Gregory Campbell views won't go away in a UI - they will only get stronger. And the left/right divide on social issues will grow more intense.

Thought it was a good show overall. Was a bit surprised that both Mary Lou and Leo were cagey on the flag question and anthem. It's as well to be honest with the people and say there will be a new flag. But I suppose neither wanted a headline that they were getting rid of it. Got to protect those Southern votes.

To be honest I think the politicians are behind the people on this. Every opinion poll in the south has re-unification over 70% when don't knows are excluded. FF and FG are playing it long due to party political interests but recent contributions from Jim O Callaghan and Bertie Ahern as well as Leo's nuanced performance last night tend to suggest both parties are adjusting their position. Very surprised that a citizens assembly was not discussed last night during all the talk of planning. Micheal has hung himself on a hook saying no border poll during this Dail and as a result is the most negative Southern politician at present (excluding the retired John Bruton). Decent program overall although I thought Byrne was too keen to talk about flags for a headline and not address schools, health, economy which are the actual things that will affect the floating vote.

And to be fair to ML she did say that in any conversations she is having the health service and economy always come before flags and emblems. There is always room for agreement on Flags and emblems, but the wavering vote will be persuaded by economics. Interesting to hear Campbell admit that there was 3 minorities now.

[Itchy]

The 6 counties are always going to be treated differently because of the polarisation. Currently they are neither fully Irish nor fully British but something in between.
In a United Ireland that would not change.
It will be heartbreaking  for Northern Shinners to live in a country that is not a romantic republic straight out of the Wolfe Tones.

Lad, you don't know an awful lot about the north do you?

[Rossfan]

One thing an Independent Scotland would do is end "British" Nationality.
Wonder what the reduced United Kingdom would then call itself?

[Applesisapples]

The 6 counties are always going to be treated differently because of the polarisation. Currently they are neither fully Irish nor fully British but something in between.
In a United Ireland that would not change.
It will be heartbreaking  for Northern Shinners to live in a country that is not a romantic republic straight out of the Wolfe Tones.

The North is not as polarised as you think. Yes in working class loyalist and republican grass roots areas it probably is. But there is a large swathe on either side of the Alliance vote that would not be too far apart. They will prefer a particular outcome but will happily accept a vote either way. For a UI to succeed money will need spent in these deprived areas to  keep a lid on things. In general there is no appetite for war in either direction.

[michaelg]

I've seen a lot of people saying 'we can't afford the North' but surely on an island our size we'd be better off having an All Ireland economy? Are studies like the following nonsense?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/arid-20388959.html

I'm not an economist but surely it stands to reason that after 100 years, most of which has been spent as an economic failure, the move towards an all-island economy can only benefit the North.

Comments like this gloss over the ailing ROI economy for the first 70 odd years of its existence where high unemployment and emigration was widespread.  Coupled with the propensity for a boom and bust style economy, it's maybe not just as straightforward as people think.

No, they don't. Partition imposed a cost, greater for NI than the ROI, and still does. Those dislocations can be ameliorated. The ROI was not very prosperous after independence, but it was not prosperous before independence. The 1930s and 1940s were not great periods in world history for boosting your international trade. The ROI lost a few years at the start of the 1950s, but in the late 1950s they got the show on the road and have progressed relative to NI ever since.

I note how your response chooses to ignore the fact that NI would continue remain as part of the UK, the 6th largest economy in the world.  That may have a bearing in people's decision making when economic factors are being considered.

[balladmaker]

The good news is that the conversation is well under way, the UI train has left the station and there's no going back.  Whenever we see successive polls of reputation showing a majority for reunification, that's the time to set the border poll date.  That majority doesn't appear to be there yet.  I for one don't want to see a border poll happening too soon only for it to be lost, it needs to be won and won well at the first attempt.