Gilmore for Taoiseach?

[barelegs]

Poll in tomorrow's Irish Times suggest Labour are now the leading party in the south.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0610/breaking70.html

Labour 32 +8
Fine Gael 28 -4
Fianna Fáil 17 -5
Sinn Féin 9 +1
Greens 3 n/c

This is an extraordinary poll by any estimations. Both Cowen and Kenny will be under serious pressure from within their own parties.
I wouldn't be convinced this poll isn't rogue. But if it holds up the Irish political system could be turned on its head.

[Rossfan]

This poll must have been taken in the Irish Times HQ.
There are I think 42 constituencies .
Labour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim, Mayo, East Galway,Laois/Offaly, Louth,West Limerick,either of the Kerrys.
Unlikely they'll get one in Sligo/Leitrim or Galway West if the poet retires.
That's 0, 1 or 2 out of 49 !!!
Could get 5 in Munster outside Cork and a possible 9 in the rest of Leinster outside Dublin.
There are about 60-63 seats in Dublin and Cork ..hard to see them getting more than 25 at best so 40 seats would be the very best they can hope for.
Gilmore for Taoiseach ....not a chance

[muppet]

This poll must have been taken in the Irish Times HQ.
There are I think 42 constituencies .
Labour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim, Mayo, East Galway,Laois/Offaly, Louth,West Limerick,either of the Kerrys.
Unlikely they'll get one in Sligo/Leitrim or Galway West if the poet retires.
That's 0, 1 or 2 out of 49 !!!
Could get 5 in Munster outside Cork and a possible 9 in the rest of Leinster outside Dublin.
There are about 60-63 seats in Dublin and Cork ..hard to see them getting more than 25 at best so 40 seats would be the very best they can hope for.
Gilmore for Taoiseach ....not a chance

Jerry Cowley is running for Labour in Mayo. Johnno and Beverly will be looking over their shoulders at him.

[Capt Pat]

Fianna fail will be back up to 40% at the next election. People down here are such drama queens, but when it boils down to it they will be voting for Fianna fail again. Idiots.

[Lady GAA GAA]

How would one from the north with Irish nationality go about voting in these potential elections?

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

This poll must have been taken in the Irish Times HQ.
There are I think 42 constituencies .
Labour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim, Mayo, East Galway,Laois/Offaly, Louth,West Limerick,either of the Kerrys.
Unlikely they'll get one in Sligo/Leitrim or Galway West if the poet retires.
That's 0, 1 or 2 out of 49 !!!
Could get 5 in Munster outside Cork and a possible 9 in the rest of Leinster outside Dublin.
There are about 60-63 seats in Dublin and Cork ..hard to see them getting more than 25 at best so 40 seats would be the very best they can hope for.
Gilmore for Taoiseach ....not a chance

Jerry Cowley is running for Labour in Mayo. Johnno and Beverly will be looking over their shoulders at him.

He ruined himself over the Shell craic. Fantastic facilities at Belmullet GAA by the way, fair play to Shell.

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

How would one from the north with Irish nationality go about voting in these potential elections?

Become resident in a constituency in the Republic. Register to vote, make sure you have done this in good time prior to an election or referendum.

[barelegs]

This poll must have been taken in the Irish Times HQ.
There are I think 42 constituencies .
Labour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim, Mayo, East Galway,Laois/Offaly, Louth,West Limerick,either of the Kerrys.
Unlikely they'll get one in Sligo/Leitrim or Galway West if the poet retires.
That's 0, 1 or 2 out of 49 !!!
Could get 5 in Munster outside Cork and a possible 9 in the rest of Leinster outside Dublin.
There are about 60-63 seats in Dublin and Cork ..hard to see them getting more than 25 at best so 40 seats would be the very best they can hope for.
Gilmore for Taoiseach ....not a chance

Don't worry Rossfan. I was playing devil's advocate with the Gilmore for Taoiseach stuff.

Having lived (and been politically active) in Dublin for the last few years I'm well aware that Fianna Fail will still poll 5-6% higher in any election than their poll ratings in the days before the election (you only needs to look at last years local and Europeans). 27-8% is likely at the minute even from that position.

Reading the poll at face value they are 4 points ahead of Fine Gael. If they poll 32% they'll definitely pick up a seat in North Kerry (Dick Spring's nephew is running) and Louth would also be a runner. I've seen relatively scientific approaches suggesting they would take 3 seat in Dublin South East and South Central amongst others.The Labour bounce in Dublin and Cork in particular would be huge.  Fianna Fail in Dublin are in for a trouncing regardless. Labour could get 35-40 seats with those numbers. Not saying they actually will.

For Enda Kenny, he's in trouble. This poll suggests the same per centage of the vote Fine Gael polled in 2007, in spite of the Fianna Fáíl vote more than halving.

There will be alot of worried people in FF and FG HQ tomorrow morning.

[Bogball XV]

How would one from the north with Irish nationality go about voting in these potential elections?

you just have to get a form, walk down to the guards, get it signed and send it away.  You can register as a british citizen if you'd like to avoid jury duty, but then you can't vote in referendi (is that the correct plural?).

I'd prefer labour to the rest, but they've come out with some serious shite recently, I liked rabbite, but not so sure about gilmore, seems a bit populist (we'll restore salaries etc to public servants etc etc).  Nah, if that's the sort of rhetoric he's going to spout, we may as well get bert back.  The more I think about voting here, the more futile it seems tbh, i'm sure i'll go along before year end and cast my vote, but i can't see who will deserve it - certainly none of the mainstreams do.  There was an interesting candidate in my last by-election last year who was proposing direct democracy (http://www.unitedminds.ie/phpPETITION/) - not sure that it'd work, but i considered voting for him, can't mind if i went for alex king instead.

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

I see a bit of a dilema for Gilmore, if he goes with a left alliance with SF & the Greens (thats if by some miracle they got the numbers) I don't see it lasting a year. Now that leaves Glimore with option of FG or FF, can Gilmore goes into government with FF even if they are a rump party. If Fine Gael take the most seats, and its about seats not % in polls, Fine Gael will get the Taoiseach based on having more seats.

[Zapatista]

This won't last. Taking on that many FFers in such a short space of time could destroy Labour. If this leads to more recruitment within Labour we can expect more of the same. Labour need to thread very carefully here but I am fearfull Gilmores ego could jeopardise the party.

Regardless of that I'd say Enda Kenny will be wishing he never suggested a No Confidence Motion on Cowen. He'll be shitting himself

[magpie seanie]

This poll must have been taken in the Irish Times HQ.
There are I think 42 constituencies .
Labour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim, Mayo, East Galway,Laois/Offaly, Louth,West Limerick,either of the Kerrys.
Unlikely they'll get one in Sligo/Leitrim or Galway West if the poet retires.
That's 0, 1 or 2 out of 49 !!!
Could get 5 in Munster outside Cork and a possible 9 in the rest of Leinster outside Dublin.
There are about 60-63 seats in Dublin and Cork ..hard to see them getting more than 25 at best so 40 seats would be the very best they can hope for.
Gilmore for Taoiseach ....not a chance

Jerry Cowley is running for Labour in Mayo. Johnno and Beverly will be looking over their shoulders at him.

He ruined himself over the Shell craic. Fantastic facilities at Belmullet GAA by the way, fair play to Shell.

Good job all people aren't as easy bought as you.

[Rossie11]

Labour will not get a seat in Donegal NE or SW, Cavan/Monaghan,Ros /Leitrim

Rossfan, they will come very close to winning 1 in Ros/Leitrim.
The 2 FG candidates are poor and no way will they hold onto the 2 they have.
There is a seat going there for labour in my book

[magpie seanie]

There is an outside possibility in Sligo/North Leitrim for Labour. They will have a good candidate and the two sitting FF guys are dead in the water. Interestingly FG will possibly have a strong new candidate on their ticket who has a strong history of getting big votes in local elections. Are the 3 sitting TD's in bother??? Despite their travails its hard to see FF not getting one. FG will get one and the final seat will be between the lower of the two FG guys and Labour I think. FF will not seriously contend for the final seat I reckon.

Personally I'm not surprised at Labour's showing in the poll. It reflects FF's unpopularity and FG's complete inability to capitalise.

[Canalman]

Saw the chairman of Belmullet GAA giving a sensible response when asked about this on TG4 last week. Alot of lads in the club are seemingly employed with Shell so he says. Also said matter was voted on by members.