What is the most likely future of Northern Ireland ?

[Rossfan]

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/british-shadow-ni-secretary-would-call-border-poll-if-circumstances-right-42015398.html

[seafoid]

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/british-shadow-ni-secretary-would-call-border-poll-if-circumstances-right-42015398.html

How long is a piece of string ?

[weareros]

Would be a big mistake to let the Brits define the terms of when a border poll can be called, because they will be sure to set a high bar. Even demanding that Nationalist parties secure more than 50% of votes in Assembly election is an impossibility with the growing share of the non-aligned parties. Once nationalist parties start outpolling Unionist or a UI trend in opinion polls asking how you would vote in 5-10 years should be enough to start setting and preparing for that date.

[brokencrossbar1]

Would be a big mistake to let the Brits define the terms of when a border poll can be called, because they will be sure to set a high bar. Even demanding that Nationalist parties secure more than 50% of votes in Assembly election is an impossibility with the growing share of the non-aligned parties. Once nationalist parties start outpolling Unionist or a UI trend in opinion polls asking how you would vote in 5-10 years should be enough to start setting and preparing for that date.

Completely agree. I know dec asked me earlier in the census thread about a stat I got. It was not part of the census but it was a education board stat of new school enrolments in September. 50% catholic, 31% Protestant, 19 % other. That's 50% of potential new voters by 2035 being catholic. Given the demographic changes the whole change in population will exponentially change over the next 10 years and the next census will be a lot different from now with it only going 1 way. If SF sustain their position both sides of the border in the next general elections and build on the local and Stormont elections then the inevitable will happen. Pray for a Labour win at the next GE and let's get the ball rolling.

[seafoid]

This can't fail if it does go ahead. Same as the 2002 final. 
So it will need a Citizens Assembly

[brokencrossbar1]

This can't fail if it does go ahead. Same as the 2002 final. 
So it will need a Citizens Assembly

Birth registrations 2014-2017 coupled against deaths over the next decades will show where the demographic will end up

[seafoid]

This can't fail if it does go ahead. Same as the 2002 final. 
So it will need a Citizens Assembly

Birth registrations 2014-2017 coupled against deaths over the next decades will show where the demographic will end up

Sure. But if it isn't planned it'll end up like Mayo on all Ireland final day.

[grounded]

The vast majority of Unionists like EG will never vote for a UI,  no matter what the benefits are (Remember the GFA achieved only approx 56% of the Unionist electorate).   
    That is just a fact. It will come right down to the wire 50+1. That is why arguments for parallel consent are being raised now, by the likes of John Bruton and some within Unionism, they are an impossibility to achieve and a permanent barrier to a UI.
      As Weareros said earlier, but mistake to let either government define the terms of when a border poll can be called. I
   Thems not the rules in the GFA.
   

[JPGJOHNNYG]

More nationalist than unionist  MLA's should be the criteria, anything else will be nothing more than stalling tactics.

[Rossfan]

The vast majority of Unionists like EG will never vote for a UI,  no matter what the benefits are (Remember the GFA achieved only approx 56% of the Unionist electorate).   
    That is just a fact. It will come right down to the wire 50+1. That is why arguments for parallel consent are being raised now, by the likes of John Bruton and some within Unionism, they are an impossibility to achieve and a permanent barrier to a UI.
      As Weareros said earlier, but mistake to let either government define the terms of when a border poll can be called. I
   Thems not the rules in the GFA.

Does the GFA say if it appears there is/likely to be/might be?.... a majority in favour of UI the SOS shall...
Who or how will we stop either Government deciding the criteria?
Parallel Unionist and Nationalist consent is a nonsense. Unless of course Nationalists can say we don't consent to being in the UK and so North has to leave UK and presumably become some kind of Independent territory.

[Hound]

The vast majority of Unionists like EG will never vote for a UI,  no matter what the benefits are (Remember the GFA achieved only approx 56% of the Unionist electorate).   
    That is just a fact. It will come right down to the wire 50+1. That is why arguments for parallel consent are being raised now, by the likes of John Bruton and some within Unionism, they are an impossibility to achieve and a permanent barrier to a UI.
      As Weareros said earlier, but mistake to let either government define the terms of when a border poll can be called. I
   Thems not the rules in the GFA.

Ah, but what are the benefits?

It ]s easy to point to negatives like higher income tax and higher medical costs. I work in the FDI sector and know for absolute certainty that US MNCs would set up operations in the north and create high value employment - but hard to prove that it.

I don't know how true it is, but I have often heard that NI has an extremely high percentage of public sector workers- will they all be needed?

One example that comes to mind is the FAI and IFA might have 40-50 employees each. I've no clue what the real figure is, but a new combined association will only need max 60% of the combined workforce. There will be loads of bodies/associations, etc in the same position - so do we fire the 40%, or keep them on and pretend there's enough work for them all?

I think we have a few teachers in the 6 on the board. How do they feel about teaching the Leaving Cert? Big deal or no problem?

For me, everything about a UI is about potential, huge potential. And I believe that within a decade it would prove to be an overwhelming success. But a lot of the concrete, certain stuff is short term pain. That's not good for a vote. And if we lose a vote, it'll be a long time before we get another one.

[Eire90]

dup would probably want the referndum under  a labour government so they can say look the commies and leftys hate the union

[Jell 0 Biafra]

The vast majority of Unionists like EG will never vote for a UI,  no matter what the benefits are (Remember the GFA achieved only approx 56% of the Unionist electorate).   
    That is just a fact. It will come right down to the wire 50+1. That is why arguments for parallel consent are being raised now, by the likes of John Bruton and some within Unionism, they are an impossibility to achieve and a permanent barrier to a UI.
      As Weareros said earlier, but mistake to let either government define the terms of when a border poll can be called. I
   Thems not the rules in the GFA.

Ah, but what are the benefits?

It ]s easy to point to negatives like higher income tax and higher medical costs. I work in the FDI sector and know for absolute certainty that US MNCs would set up operations in the north and create high value employment - but hard to prove that it.

I don't know how true it is, but I have often heard that NI has an extremely high percentage of public sector workers- will they all be needed?

One example that comes to mind is the FAI and IFA might have 40-50 employees each. I've no clue what the real figure is, but a new combined association will only need max 60% of the combined workforce. There will be loads of bodies/associations, etc in the same position - so do we fire the 40%, or keep them on and pretend there's enough work for them all?

Given that any united Ireland would be a member of the EU, I would think there'd be EU funds to help.  There would almost certainly be US funds too, given their centrality to the GFA. 

That could then allow for using some of those funds to help pay staff who would (as in you rFAI/IFA example) be more than was strictly needed.  Or to train those staff for other employment (while retaining their current pay).

One model here would be the East/West German unification.  Short-to-medium term pain, with funds to help alleviate this, leading to long term gain.

Of course the Germans didn't have to deal with the DUP, and their fanbase, so there's that.

[seafoid]

The NI economy with its large post conflict public sector and low productivity is weaker than the Southern economy. There would be benefits in bringing the North up to speed but it would have to be carefully planned. The danger is that all the decisions are made by southerners. A cohort of leaders from the North would have to be trained.

[Milltown Row2]

The NI economy with its large post conflict public sector and low productivity is weaker than the Southern economy. There would be benefits in bringing the North up to speed but it would have to be carefully planned. The danger is that all the decisions are made by southerners. A cohort of leaders from the North would have to be trained.

As long as they don't have the Haughey and Bertie training that was given out