Messages

1

General discussion / Re: Cost Of Living

« on: September 30, 2022, 05:15:41 PM »

I see the scams are out already for cost of living benefits!! Had two messages sent to phone already today! 

Some parasites about

My daughter got them to her phone. Looking gullible people to fleece

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General discussion / Re: BEST/MOST DISAPPOPINTING PLACES YOU HAVE VISITED

« on: September 30, 2022, 02:50:38 PM »

Seeing 5 Sams in a thread brings me back to a bad place. Hard to believe it’s 5 years since we lost him….

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General discussion / Re: Mortgages - Help!

« on: September 27, 2022, 10:38:05 AM »

We are having the very same discussions at the minute. Fixed rate runs out next November and it would have cost us £3500 to break it a few months back with redemption charges. Decided against it. The predictions for the interest rate hikes mean we have to really look at the options. I would suspect that most fixed rate deals will be in the 4.5% range but you might get better on a discounted rate for 12-24 months. Much will depend on the volatility of the world next year but you really can’t predict what will be happening next week nevermind next year.

I bought my first house in 1999. Base rate was 5.5%. Over the next few years it varied between that and 4.25. I remember buying a house at the same level mortgage that we presently have where the base was 4.75%. If it goes up to 5.5 or 6 the world isn’t gonna collapse. People need to be mindful of their lives and adjust accordingly because they will go back down.

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GAA Discussion / Re: Underage Amalgamations

« on: September 26, 2022, 05:49:42 PM »

In Armagh amalgamated underage teams can play in whatever division they believe they are at. There are amalgamated teams at all levels. Amalgamated teams wouldn't normally be of the quality required to play Division 1, but it does happen now and again; eg Patrick Rankin (Shane O'Neill's, Corrinshigo O'Hanlon's, I think) are Division 1 at U17 this year

That Patrick Rankins team have been consistently strong up through the ages, just don’t have the numbers for each club to go it alone.

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General discussion / Re: What is the most likely future of Northern Ireland ?

« on: September 25, 2022, 05:01:41 PM »

This can't fail if it does go ahead. Same as the 2002 final. 
So it will need a Citizens Assembly

Birth registrations 2014-2017 coupled against deaths over the next decades will show where the demographic will end up

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General discussion / Re: Six County Census Results 2021

« on: September 25, 2022, 04:53:14 PM »

A huge stat from yesterday were the children starting school, 50% catholic, 31% Protestant, 19% other. They are voters by 2035/36. It’s happening and it will speed up exponentially over the next decade and there is nothing anyone can do to stop the changing demographic. God Bless the Catholic Church and their approach to contraception is all I’ll say!

Where did you see that, I couldn't find any religion/age breakdown information?

This wasn’t in the census but in the new school enrolment details for September. Essentially 50 % of 4-5 year olds were catholic. All voters by 2035,  could we wait till then?  There’ll be 2 GEs north and south at least by the next census you’d have to think if SF built in the north and south and the trends in the current census maintain then there can only be one outcome

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General discussion / Re: What is the most likely future of Northern Ireland ?

« on: September 25, 2022, 04:44:52 PM »

Would be a big mistake to let the Brits define the terms of when a border poll can be called, because they will be sure to set a high bar. Even demanding that Nationalist parties secure more than 50% of votes in Assembly election is an impossibility with the growing share of the non-aligned parties. Once nationalist parties start outpolling Unionist or a UI trend in opinion polls asking how you would vote in 5-10 years should be enough to start setting and preparing for that date.

Completely agree. I know dec asked me earlier in the census thread about a stat I got. It was not part of the census but it was a education board stat of new school enrolments in September. 50% catholic, 31% Protestant, 19 % other. That’s 50% of potential new voters by 2035 being catholic. Given the demographic changes the whole change in population will exponentially change over the next 10 years and the next census will be a lot different from now with it only going 1 way. If SF sustain their position both sides of the border in the next general elections and build on the local and Stormont elections then the inevitable will happen. Pray for a Labour win at the next GE and let’s get the ball rolling.

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General discussion / Re: Six County Census Results 2021

« on: September 23, 2022, 12:29:06 PM »

First time since the early 1600s that the Catholics have had a majority. It's interesting that an O'Neill is heading the biggest party.

And one from Tyrone….reversal of the flight ….

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General discussion / Re: Lawless Republic

« on: September 23, 2022, 11:26:47 AM »

And that’s the problem in a single post Trailer. I understand your mindset and I also think that at times but locking up and throwing away the key is not the answer either as that creates inter generational crime and poverty, which there has been for many generations across all societies. What happened at Ballyfermot is no different than what was happening with joyriding on the Falls in the late 80’s early 90’s. That is no where near as bad as it was. There has been a lot of work on the ground in respect of community policing and the communities themselves taking more control. That is not through play parks and leisure centres but through active participation. That’s what needs to happen but it is a very slow process.

Two processes have to work in tandem, crime has to be punished,  end of. Society would break down completely if it was not. I agree that some form of group with social workers etc have to work with poorer communities & create mentors/ community leaders to improve anti social behaviour & make people feel positive about their community.
But to be clear, what happened in the video needs to be punished.

Agree 100%. I am not a tree hugging liberal who let’s all go and blames society for others bad behaviour. I have been in prison cells with bad wee bastards and I know that some are beyond redemption and there has to be punishment. The key is prevention through better structures and a greater focus on restorative work to try to prevent reoffending and breaking cycles. Prison creates more dangerous criminals, not the other way around.

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General discussion / Re: Lawless Republic

« on: September 23, 2022, 10:48:50 AM »

And that’s the problem in a single post Trailer. I understand your mindset and I also think that at times but locking up and throwing away the key is not the answer either as that creates inter generational crime and poverty, which there has been for many generations across all societies. What happened at Ballyfermot is no different than what was happening with joyriding on the Falls in the late 80’s early 90’s. That is no where near as bad as it was. There has been a lot of work on the ground in respect of community policing and the communities themselves taking more control. That is not through play parks and leisure centres but through active participation. That’s what needs to happen but it is a very slow process.

11

General discussion / Re: Lawless Republic

« on: September 23, 2022, 10:04:31 AM »

No fear of the Guards is the biggest problem.
The weak justice system and the guards not being arsed feeds that.
The arrests in Ballyfermot shows the Gardai could tackle this head on if they were motivated to do so.

The problem is not whether the guards are arsed or not, or whether the justice system is strong enough or not, as that is a top down solution as opposed to a bottom up. Where there is deprivation and poverty you will always have more crime. Places like Ballyfermot are no different than areas of east or west Belfast, Moss Side in Manchester, or any deprived areas in major cities across the world. These types of crimes have been happening for generations, but populations have exploded in the last 2 decades, along with the advent of camera phones and social media, there is a perception that it is now worse than it was. It isn’t.

This crime does not start when these kids, generally boys, reach 12-13. They come from homes that are broken beyond repair from a very young age,  they generally have no father in their lives, if they do he is generally involved in crime/physically abusive/alcohol or drug addict or all of the above. They fall into gang life as that’s the only way to survive. There’s insufficient funds being pumped into the cause of this happening at an early age and too much pumped into law enforcement. Break the cycle before it happens. This will take generations but is the only way. Criminal justice is purely a sticking plaster

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General discussion / Re: Six County Census Results 2021

« on: September 23, 2022, 08:37:30 AM »

To remove the census they’d need to be working in the replacement process already and I suspect there are too many vested interests in keeping the status quo in terms of the data collection.

I believe the next election will be very very telling, that is if Stormont gets up and running again. If the most recent election results are honoured or if there’s a re-run in the next few months and they are honoured I suspect it will be a tumultuous time for M O’N as first minister but I think she will hold her own. The next election in the north and south will have a larger core of young voters, the current 15-18 year olds, many of whom will vote SF more so than other parties. I can see this having a big impact, particularly in the South. If you have SF with a majority, or at least a significant vote share on both sides of the border for a few elections on a row then there is a clear mandate. A huge stat from yesterday were the children starting school, 50% catholic, 31% Protestant, 19% other. They are voters by 2035/36. It’s happening and it will speed up exponentially over the next decade and there is nothing anyone can do to stop the changing demographic. God Bless the Catholic Church and their approach to contraception is all I’ll say!

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General discussion / Re: Queen Elizabeth II 1926 - 2022

« on: September 21, 2022, 08:13:38 AM »

There's a lad in front of the navy (carrying the coffin,) must be over 7ft

Past pupil of Sullivan Upper apparently

“Much ado on Twitter about the very tall gentleman that was part of Queen Elizabeth’s funeral procession today. That is Matthew Magee, former Sullivan pupil (Class of 2003) and Private Secretary to Her Majesty.”

now that he's a bit of spare time on his hands, would he mind lining out at full forward for St Pauls of Holywood?

Surely East Belfast would scoop him up….

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General discussion / Re: The official Everton FC Supporters thread

« on: September 20, 2022, 10:09:28 AM »

Tbf to Lampard who I have my doubts about at times I think he has done a great job there. Played in the right position now and a bit of man management and he's starting to look worth what was paid. If he could add a few goals now.

Completely different player. He was always big and strong and had skill but he seemed to be a bit brainless by times. The freedom in a more central role probably has allowed him to flourish and Lampard must be able to get through to him.

In fairness Lampard has steadied the ship but you will still struggle to score goals. Coady and Tarkowski have brought a lot of organisation to the back and that has helped.

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General discussion / Re: Scottish independence referendum thread

« on: September 19, 2022, 10:49:27 AM »

I think these are just 2 things that need to be addressed :

1. Stormont needs to be depolarised and less amenable to being blown up by the DUP. This is a structural issue.

2.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/diarmaid-ferriter-peace-process-offers-lessons-for-those-who-seek-united-ireland-1.4520277
"What is needed at the very least is a north-south citizen’s assembly over the long-term to discuss what both sides of the island have, or need to have, in common along with confronting what divides them."

Even if nationalists were 51% there wouldn't be a majority. A certain portion would be more comfortable with the status quo.
The Scottish Referendum is a great example. You have to be prepared, you have to bring the people with you  and you have to win first time.

There has to be a dialogue about how it is going to happen before it happens. Learn from the mess of Brexit. Don’t just say ‘we are going to have a border poll’ and then bill on ahead. SF actually are poor when it comes to what they see as the way forward. All they ever say is that it’s going to happen. They should appoint a single spokesperson on it, so the research on how the notion of a ‘new Ireland ‘ would work, build on that research so that when the inevitable border poll comes people are making an informed choice as opposed to a straight forward sectarian head count. That’s the only way they will bring the middle/soft unionists with them