A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

Started by winghalfback, May 27, 2015, 03:16:23 PM

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weareros

Quote from: Pub Bore on Today at 02:50:02 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on Today at 02:40:56 PMThe calling of a "Border poll" is in the hands of the Brit Sec of State if it appears to him/her there might be a majority in the North in favour of a UI.

All very vague and subjective, probably deliberately so in the context of 1998.
No guidelines or criteria laid down anywhere.
Different Secs of State will have varying ideas of what might appear to them as a majority in favour.

Possibly only come about as a result of Court proceedings taken by someone from the Nationalist community.

Yes, as I've said before this was the part of the GFA where SF/SDLP were asleep, though maybe the vagueness of this was the price for prisoner release and SF realising they would have to play the long game, who knows?  But trying to force the SoS into calling a border poll is like trying to eat soup with a fork.  There are no solid criteria.  Labour (the British version) have already said a poll won't be called during their tenure, so there's no chance before 2030.

Apart from giving sole power to the British Secretary of State (who often tends to be a thick bollocks), the agreement is clear enough on the conditions:

'Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power
under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of
those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to
be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.'

To me that is a few things.

1) Opinion polls would need to consistently start showing a majority in favour. The problem with opinion polls is that the ones the SOS tends to heed the most (eg Arins, University of Liverpool) are using biased panels and face to face interviews, which IMO undercount the UI vote. The one that captures it the most, ie LucidTalk, will only run United Ireland polls when contracted by the Belfast Telegraph. The BelTel makes headlines out of the "if a vote was held tomorrow" and ignores the aspiration vote. For example in the poll they ran in February, United Ireland led 51% to 44% if a vote was held in 15-20 years, but only at 39% if held tomorrow. No vote is going to be held tomorrow so that is just stupid.

2) Nationalist vote comfortably starts to exceed the Unionist vote. That has only happened once so far in the local elections last year. Again, the SOS tends to look more at the parliament vote, and the nationalist vote is hindered by ceding to Alliance to keep a Unionist out. While it may be good to have Sorcha Eastwood in parliament to counter the likes of Jim Allister, all I see is her taking selfies in London. SF/SDLP should stop this, and just focus on increasing the nationalist vote. The harsh reality is that it was 39% in 1998 and it is still 39%. The local election result of 44% is probably more accurate - and that is getting close.
 
3) In a Stormont vote, a majority of MLAs vote for a border poll. This would require Alliance siding with nationalism, and a way get such a vote on the agenda, and for the SOS to respect it.