Brexit.

[Kickham csc]

Guy at work has been trying to corner me on Brexit. I let my guard down today and he finally got me....sensible normal guy who Id be fairly firendly with... unfortunately he's badly informed on this but has a very strong opinion on it.

He reckons a hard Brexit is coming and that a Frexit and Gerexit is gonna follow shortly and if it doesnt there will be hell to pay... there will be a European army that will be used to make sure all countries toe the line.

Doesnt understand how the EU benefits anyone and cant see any comparison to the United States. Especially since there is no chance of the American army invading any of the states to put them in place. Wonder would they agree with him in Virgina?

I realised I was in a pointless escapade to inform him better? But anyway I was flabbergasted at the deluded stuff he was coming out with..... pure fantasy. I dont understand where he was even getting the half of it.

But he's not the first another guy who is a bit better informed asked me would it not also be a good idea for Ireland to exit alongside Britain, he got a quick rebuttal about that!

I also dont understand why there is such anti EU sentiment in America. I mean America has closer cultural, economic and political ties with Europe than anywhere else so can't understand how a sensible person would allow such deluded hypothetical scenarios as the basis for their opinion.

US is closer culturally with Ireland and Britain, and then there is a step change to the rest of the EU. A lot of US colleagues consider continental EU as too socialist for them.

For example, I work in a multi national, the US team are flabbergasted about the EU rules on the permissible hours worked in the working week, August shutdown holdidays, especially when deadlines are looming.

Also, European employment rules would be considered close to Marxism, length of consultancy period, layoff terms 'v' right to work rules in NJ.

[armaghniac]

US is closer culturally with Ireland and Britain, and then there is a step change to the rest of the EU. A lot of US colleagues consider continental EU as too socialist for them.

This is largely myth, people in the US may speak the same language, more or less, but their thinking is quite different.

For example, I work in a multi national, the US team are flabbergasted about the EU rules on the permissible hours worked in the working week, August shutdown holdidays, especially when deadlines are looming.

Who puts a deadline in the vicinity of the holidays? Sounds like bad planning.

[seafoid]

Crispin Odey's comments (made last week) are the reason sterling jumped last week.

The DUP have lost. The consequences for NI are massive.
Arlene bet the farm on no deal.

Seafoid, you're an awful man for the big dramatic statement.

Nobody's lost or won anything with this yet.

No deal is not going to happen, Franko
You can bet Ballymena on it
Parliament won't accept it and neither will the EU

[Hound]

Seems to be a growing confidence in the hardline Brexiteers that the EU will cave. Leave with "no deal" but an agreement to start negotiating a UK-EU trade agreement with a 2 year (extendable) deadline, and in the meantime it's a "temporary" free trade agreement leaving all UK-EU trade exactly as is. In return, UK gives all the monies it has committed (which it owes anyway!).

EU caving seemed impossible all along as there has to be something to discourage others from following the UK and leaving. But seems the Germans in particular are wavering due to the huge costs to their economy of an actual hard Brexit.

The EU can't "cave" without Ireland "caving". And there can't be a free trade deal or a temporary free trade deal wthout Ireland agreeing.

There has never been a time when the hard Brexiteers have not been "confident". Delusion does that.

There's absolutely no chance that Ireland would be the country to halt such a "deal". We need free trade with the UK more than anyone else. So barring a Brexit reversal, the best solution for us is a temporary free trade agreement leaving everything as is for the next 2 years. Pushes the border question back 2 years too at which stage perhaps DUP won't be important to the new UK government

The Withdrawl Agreement is the temporary deal.

There is no other "temporary deal".

At the moment.

Unless it's rejected and put off the table.

We'll see if the Germans put long term EU objectives ahead of short term severe national pain if No Deal crunchtime comes. They've been steadfast up to very recently, but now that a No Deal seems a possibility, there are signs of wavering. Big German business will not be happy with a No Deal, to say the least.

[Main Street]

If there was no backstop clause inserted in the Withdrawal Agreement, does anyone think that would make the difference to the agreement being voted through by a majority in parliament?

[seafoid]

If there was no backstop clause inserted in the Withdrawal Agreement, does anyone think that would make the difference to the agreement being voted through by a majority in parliament?

No

They still don't know what they want

https://brexitoptions.co.uk/diagram.html

[sid waddell]

Seems to be a growing confidence in the hardline Brexiteers that the EU will cave. Leave with "no deal" but an agreement to start negotiating a UK-EU trade agreement with a 2 year (extendable) deadline, and in the meantime it's a "temporary" free trade agreement leaving all UK-EU trade exactly as is. In return, UK gives all the monies it has committed (which it owes anyway!).

EU caving seemed impossible all along as there has to be something to discourage others from following the UK and leaving. But seems the Germans in particular are wavering due to the huge costs to their economy of an actual hard Brexit.

The EU can't "cave" without Ireland "caving". And there can't be a free trade deal or a temporary free trade deal wthout Ireland agreeing.

There has never been a time when the hard Brexiteers have not been "confident". Delusion does that.

There's absolutely no chance that Ireland would be the country to halt such a "deal". We need free trade with the UK more than anyone else. So barring a Brexit reversal, the best solution for us is a temporary free trade agreement leaving everything as is for the next 2 years. Pushes the border question back 2 years too at which stage perhaps DUP won't be important to the new UK government

The Withdrawl Agreement is the temporary deal.

There is no other "temporary deal".

At the moment.

Unless it's rejected and put off the table.

We'll see if the Germans put long term EU objectives ahead of short term severe national pain if No Deal crunchtime comes. They've been steadfast up to very recently, but now that a No Deal seems a possibility, there are signs of wavering. Big German business will not be happy with a No Deal, to say the least.

This is the delusion that Boris Johnson, David Davis et al have been labouring under for the last three years, that German car manufacturers actually have a say in whether there's a backstop or not. They don't.

[An Watcher]

Can someone tell me what a hard border looks like as Arlene Foster said there had never been one in Ireland?  I remember heavily fortified checkpoints at Newry, Strabane and Aughnacloy but they mustn't have been big enough to be termed a hard border

[imtommygunn]

The woman is a joke. She's listening to trump too much- say something is true and then people will believe it.

[armaghniac]

Can someone tell me what a hard border looks like as Arlene Foster said there had never been one in Ireland?  I remember heavily fortified checkpoints at Newry, Strabane and Aughnacloy but they mustn't have been big enough to be termed a hard border

Yet more Lies. Leaving aside the fortified checkpoints where some case can be made, there were enormous customs barriers for 40 years. In the 1920s north-south trade halved.

What does  she think these boys were at?

[Gabriel_Hurl]

Destroyed in that vote - she can't stay on, surely

[OgraAnDun]

Sterling has responded well to the vote. Markets must think there'll be no Brexit.

[gallsman]

I thought pantomime season was over. This is genuinely mortifying stuff at this stage.

[Jeepers Creepers]

if Sinn Fein had taken their seats..she would have only lost by 223 votes!!

[manfromdelmonte]

I vividly remember driving up to a checkpoint the far side of Ballyshannon when I was a child