26 County General Election 2020

[macdanger2]

I'd say SF now have a tranche of voters that are not very loyal to them and who'll move away if they do not deliver.

and that's the way it should be as FF and FG are finding to their cost.

The days of voting for X because you Da and his Da before him voted due to a taking of sides during the Irish Civil war allowed the DeValera years of destitution, the utter domination of the Catholic Church on civic life and the likes Haughey and the cute hoorism, brown envelopes that led to the financial collapse in the noughties.

Shinners could now have a tough decision to make if FF come knocking on their door as the small partner in government always gets shafted. Martin is a poor leader and he'll bring down any partner he takes into government with him, mark my words.

But that's the thing, SF would not be the small partner in government. They will go into any potential government with a bigger % share of the vote albeit with less TD's. It will be an equal partnership which would make it even more difficult for FF to stomach and would not be the basis on which to provide a stable government.

The number of seats won is far far more important than the number of first preferences achieved. So it won't be equal. FF will have the Taoiseach and be in charge.

But SF will end up with enough seats to demand a big representation around the cabinet table. They will surely get the Health and Housing portfolios that they crave. Probably Tanaiste. Others too. The big debate I'd guess will be whether they can get Doherty into Finance, which FF will resist. I think if they agree/compromise on that portfolio, then they'll form a government, but that won't be easy.

Doherty is probably more capable than anyone on the FF benches

[Franko]

I'd say SF now have a tranche of voters that are not very loyal to them and who'll move away if they do not deliver.

and that's the way it should be as FF and FG are finding to their cost.

The days of voting for X because you Da and his Da before him voted due to a taking of sides during the Irish Civil war allowed the DeValera years of destitution, the utter domination of the Catholic Church on civic life and the likes Haughey and the cute hoorism, brown envelopes that led to the financial collapse in the noughties.

Shinners could now have a tough decision to make if FF come knocking on their door as the small partner in government always gets shafted. Martin is a poor leader and he'll bring down any partner he takes into government with him, mark my words.

But that's the thing, SF would not be the small partner in government. They will go into any potential government with a bigger % share of the vote albeit with less TD's. It will be an equal partnership which would make it even more difficult for FF to stomach and would not be the basis on which to provide a stable government.

The number of seats won is far far more important than the number of first preferences achieved. So it won't be equal. FF will have the Taoiseach and be in charge.

But SF will end up with enough seats to demand a big representation around the cabinet table. They will surely get the Health and Housing portfolios that they crave. Probably Tanaiste. Others too. The big debate I'd guess will be whether they can get Doherty into Finance, which FF will resist. I think if they agree/compromise on that portfolio, then they'll form a government, but that won't be easy.

And ironically, he's probably the best man/woman for the job. (IMO)

[five points]

Doherty is probably more capable than anyone on the FF benches

Not exactly a high bar right now though.

[weareros]

Either FF/SF with a smaller grouping to get them past 80, or months of wrangling and another election in April, or lo and behold, Leo gets his preferred May election.

[Franko]

Also, which Shinner thought it was a good idea to produce the tricolours and sing 'Come Out Ye Black and Tans'?

What a moron.

On a day when everything they touched turned to gold, this bunch of idiots managed to give the perennial naysayers a penalty kick.

[five points]

Either FF/SF with a smaller grouping to get them past 80, or months of wrangling and another election in April, or lo and behold, Leo gets his preferred May election.

Throw a few bob to Kerry and Tipp and they've suddenly four more seats. Far less bother than the Greens would bring.

[Jim_Murphy_74]

I'd say SF now have a tranche of voters that are not very loyal to them and who'll move away if they do not deliver.

and that's the way it should be as FF and FG are finding to their cost.

If you promise €5 on the pension you can do that soon enough, you can even allow people get the pension at 65. If you promise more houses and better transport you cannot easily bring these things into existence quickly. You can take long term decisions that help these things, it isn't clear that this class of voter looks at the planning or long term which is why we are where we are.

For health all parties are locked into Sláinte-care.  In the short-term firing money at new hires may or may not reap dividends.   The quickest way is to use National Treatment Purchase fund to clear waiting lists.  However, I am guessing that would be anathema to Shinners as it's supporting private medicine. 

The pension increase should be doable in "fiscal space" and any coalition partner would let it go.  The pension age is a longer term item.  In the short-term it wouldn't have a huge impact.  Looking at social welfare spend and demographics in the Republi it is a huge ticking time bomb though.

I think anyone other than Fine Gael would happily accept investment in social housing.  However 6.5billion will not give 100,000 houses plus I don't think you could even find the builders for that kind of volume.  I would guess the likes of FF would certainly agree to some kind of injection there.

Property tax:  You cannot pull that from local authorities without giving them some sort of central money.  Otherwise you will see the roads in rural Ireland going back to the sh1t we had in the past.   Some kind of exemption for lower paid people might wash but completely removing such a source of funding for local government would be calamitous.  It's also strange to see a left-wing party against taxing such an obvious wealth asset as property.

Income tax:  cutting the lower parts of USC could be done but will leave a hole to be filled.   Raising tax on high earners may not sit well with the 1,000 doctors and consultants they want to hire for the health service but I think some comprise could be made.

The hiring spree for health, justice and Gardai will be problematic unless the wealth tax truly delivers but I would see potential coalition partners agreeing an increase of some sort in all those areas.

Special Criminal Court:  Not a hope of carrying that.

Border Poll:  Being in government could help pressure the Brits but it's in the gift of the Secretary of State.  I think Brexit and Scotland will have a lot more influence on this than the Irish Government.

I think a rent-freeze could be done.

Stopping the insurance rip off - remains to be seen what can be done there.   I note in child-care that two of the biggest players have left Ireland altogether.  That doesn't suggest that they were making huge profits from their high premiums. 

I would say in any negotiations they can get more spending on services but no way will there a hope of running deficits so it will have to be done within fiscal limits and with whatever wealth tax income they can get.

Dealing with the private businesses like banks, insurance companies may prove problematic.   They can push more scrutiny but it's a difficult one to legislate for.  As for multi-nationals any changes to corporate tax rates will be watched with interest by London.   Boris is a weasel and if he senses a chance it's no problem to move all those brass-plates from Dublin docklands to London.


Gestures towards pensions, USC etc.. will be made but not fully to the level in Shinners' manifesto.

Unity stuff will be optics.

Special Criminal Court:  Neither FG or FF (even some of smaller parties) will countenance abolition.   Neither FF or FG would allow Shinners hold Justice or Defence portfolio as it would tear their own internal party support apart.

FG are running away and painting Meehawl and FF into a corner here.  After 9 years in government (mostly doing the heavy lifting of austerity) they would prefer to be largest opposition party, critiquing from the sidelines.

FF will be faced with coalition with Shinners or going back to the country and the Shinners becoming the largest party by popularity and seats.

/Jim.

[Snapchap]

Also, which Shinner thought it was a good idea to produce the tricolours and sing 'Come Out Ye Black and Tans'?

What a moron.

On a day when everything they touched turned to gold, this bunch of idiots managed to give the perennial naysayers a penalty kick.

I don't see why it's controversial which is probably why I don't see too many people getting worked up about it. Why would anyone get worked up about it outside of the blueshirts who realise it's a dig at them over the RIC commemoration? Why would any other self respecting Irish citizen be upset/offended by a song celebrating the fight for independence?

[Rossfan]

About the wealth tax and higher rate of PAYE for high earners,
The USC is already charged at 8% on all income over €75k per annum.
A Hospital consultant hoping full time public getting an extra €70k gross would be lucky to take home €30k of that (40% tax, 8% USC, 6% pension, 10% pension levy, 4.9% PRSI).
Hard to see many giving up their private practices for that.

[yellowcard]

I'd say SF now have a tranche of voters that are not very loyal to them and who'll move away if they do not deliver.

and that's the way it should be as FF and FG are finding to their cost.

The days of voting for X because you Da and his Da before him voted due to a taking of sides during the Irish Civil war allowed the DeValera years of destitution, the utter domination of the Catholic Church on civic life and the likes Haughey and the cute hoorism, brown envelopes that led to the financial collapse in the noughties.

Shinners could now have a tough decision to make if FF come knocking on their door as the small partner in government always gets shafted. Martin is a poor leader and he'll bring down any partner he takes into government with him, mark my words.

But that's the thing, SF would not be the small partner in government. They will go into any potential government with a bigger % share of the vote albeit with less TD's. It will be an equal partnership which would make it even more difficult for FF to stomach and would not be the basis on which to provide a stable government.

The number of seats won is far far more important than the number of first preferences achieved. So it won't be equal. FF will have the Taoiseach and be in charge.

But SF will end up with enough seats to demand a big representation around the cabinet table. They will surely get the Health and Housing portfolios that they crave. Probably Tanaiste. Others too. The big debate I'd guess will be whether they can get Doherty into Finance, which FF will resist. I think if they agree/compromise on that portfolio, then they'll form a government, but that won't be easy.

I agree that the party with the bigger number of seats will have the Taoiseach. However after that, the cabinet positions would have to be fairly evenly split and I'd be fairly sure that SF would want Doherty and O'Brion in Finance and Housing as part of any cabinet since they are probably their best 2 performers. Don't think SF would be getting justice anyway!

[Main Street]

I very much doubt SF would accept anything less that equal partnership, they would be mad to accept less.

Jim O'Callaghan is challenging SF to put forward a Left coalition program for government. It's a numbers game Jim,  hard to form a government with just 60 or so TDs.

[Hound]

Doherty is probably more capable than anyone on the FF benches

Not exactly a high bar right now though.

Well, there'll be some fresh faced FF'ers in this time, so we'll see what they're made of. But can't disagree that Doherty would seem more than capable.

It could be a huge benefit in normalising the party if they got Doherty into the finance portfolio, did a decent job and didn't go all commy/marxist like SF threatened to do in the past.

[Franko]

Also, which Shinner thought it was a good idea to produce the tricolours and sing 'Come Out Ye Black and Tans'?

What a moron.

On a day when everything they touched turned to gold, this bunch of idiots managed to give the perennial naysayers a penalty kick.

I don't see why it's controversial which is probably why I don't see too many people getting worked up about it. Why would anyone get worked up about it outside of the blueshirts who realise it's a dig at them over the RIC commemoration? Why would any other self respecting Irish citizen be upset/offended by a song celebrating the fight for independence?

It was crass, triumphalist and unnecessary.

I don't think too many were offended.

[RedHand88]

I'd say SF now have a tranche of voters that are not very loyal to them and who'll move away if they do not deliver.

and that's the way it should be as FF and FG are finding to their cost.

The days of voting for X because you Da and his Da before him voted due to a taking of sides during the Irish Civil war allowed the DeValera years of destitution, the utter domination of the Catholic Church on civic life and the likes Haughey and the cute hoorism, brown envelopes that led to the financial collapse in the noughties.

Shinners could now have a tough decision to make if FF come knocking on their door as the small partner in government always gets shafted. Martin is a poor leader and he'll bring down any partner he takes into government with him, mark my words.

But that's the thing, SF would not be the small partner in government. They will go into any potential government with a bigger % share of the vote albeit with less TD's. It will be an equal partnership which would make it even more difficult for FF to stomach and would not be the basis on which to provide a stable government.

The number of seats won is far far more important than the number of first preferences achieved. So it won't be equal. FF will have the Taoiseach and be in charge.

But SF will end up with enough seats to demand a big representation around the cabinet table. They will surely get the Health and Housing portfolios that they crave. Probably Tanaiste. Others too. The big debate I'd guess will be whether they can get Doherty into Finance, which FF will resist. I think if they agree/compromise on that portfolio, then they'll form a government, but that won't be easy.

I agree that the party with the bigger number of seats will have the Taoiseach. However after that, the cabinet positions would have to be fairly evenly split and I'd be fairly sure that SF would want Doherty and O'Brion in Finance and Housing as part of any cabinet since they are probably their best 2 performers. Don't think SF would be getting justice anyway!

They said that about education in the North. They still took it, people will get over it.

[macdanger2]

I very much doubt SF would accept anything less that equal partnership, they would be mad to accept less.

Jim O'Callaghan is challenging SF to put forward a Left coalition program for government. It's a numbers game Jim,  hard to form a government with just 60 or so TDs.

He could walk to protect his seat if they do a deal with SF, sounded adamant on the radio