Is the union on its last legs?

[rossie mad]

With the increased support for the SNP in Scotland and talk of a possible referendum on independance in scotland,the population divide in the six counties swaying towards a nationlist majority and "home rule" parliments in scotland,wales and the six now in full operation are we looking at the union on its last legs?
Would scotland be economically viable as an independant nation or wales for that matter?
Would a united ireland be a burden or a relief?
Would the British monarchy go into extinction?
Do people really care?

[lynchbhoy]

trying to remember what I heard, but hazily recall that Scotland is actually economically self sustainable and a viable republic at least financially- as they 'own' the oil and gas reserves and many other resources plus pockets of industry around their country.
Thanks to England on the industry services etc I have to add !

They are looking for their own self determination and one  of the first things they said they would do is to copy the Irish blueprint and lower corporation tax etc and lure foreign companies to invest and set up etc.

Wales and NI are however, not independantly viable.

[Tony Baloney]

trying to remember what I heard, but hazily recall that Scotland is actually economically self sustainable and a viable republic at least financially- as they 'own' the oil and gas reserves and many other resources plus pockets of industry around their country.
Thanks to England on the industry services etc I have to add !

They are looking for their own self determination and one  of the first things they said they would do is to copy the Irish blueprint and lower corporation tax etc and lure foreign companies to invest and set up etc.

Wales and NI are however, not independantly viable.

What he said - Stormont relies on scrounging in Westminster to sustain the wee six. I'd say Wales hasn't much in the way of a viable economy either now that mining and heavy manufacturing is a thing of the past.

[lynchbhoy]

I believe that if a referendum was held in Scotland in the near future over independence from the UK, it would fail on the basis of people saying that they are heightened Scottish nationalists for polls and sports events etc. but when it comes to the actual polling booth I reckon a significant amount of voters, even those who regularly vote SNP, would be careful about the consequences of their vote, even allowing the possible sustainability of an independent Scotland. The oil and gas reserves in the North Sea won't last forever and while the SNP sees an independent Scotland within a European Union, it would certainly not get proper attention to it as a fledgling country and member nowadays compared to 10-15 years ago with the expansion eastwards of the EU.

would its population be comparable (or greater) than Irelands ?
If so, and the gas, oil money giving it the initial lift, with the plan to entice foreign companies and investment for its long term plan...I'd think it woul dhave a good chance to make the eu take notice - as money talks and they pay Ireland far more attention than a peripherally placed, low population based country should get !
Still would agree with its citizens not voting for self determination though as you say !

[Zapatista]

If there is any substansial reserve there it will not be given up by the Union.

[lfdown2]

would i be right in saying that a move to a united ireland should britian accept the €uro?

[Maguire01]

Wales and NI are however, not independantly viable.

NI wouldn't have to be independently viable. I'd assume that any breakup of the UK would result in an NI and RoI merger, rather than NI as an independent.

I believe that if a referendum was held in Scotland in the near future over independence from the UK, it would fail on the basis of people saying that they are heightened Scottish nationalists for polls and sports events etc. but when it comes to the actual polling booth I reckon a significant amount of voters, even those who regularly vote SNP, would be careful about the consequences of their vote, even allowing the possible sustainability of an independent Scotland.

NI would be the exact same. 50%+ voting for nationalist parties in an Assembly/Westminster election would not necessarily mean a majority vote for a united Ireland.

[lynchbhoy]

Wales and NI are however, not independantly viable.

NI wouldn't have to be independently viable. I'd assume that any breakup of the UK would result in an NI and RoI merger, rather than NI as an independent.

I believe that if a referendum was held in Scotland in the near future over independence from the UK, it would fail on the basis of people saying that they are heightened Scottish nationalists for polls and sports events etc. but when it comes to the actual polling booth I reckon a significant amount of voters, even those who regularly vote SNP, would be careful about the consequences of their vote, even allowing the possible sustainability of an independent Scotland.

NI would be the exact same. 50%+ voting for nationalist parties in an Assembly/Westminster election would not necessarily mean a majority vote for a united Ireland.

I am sure there woul dhave to be a referrendum in Ireland to see if they were to accept NI

also NI being financially (at least) bankrupt means that a United Ireland is not on the table unless England/Brit gov pays a handsome dowry to have us take it off their hands.
Wont happen in recession times anyhow !

[Zapatista]

I am sure there woul dhave to be a referrendum in (the South of) Ireland to see if they were to accept NI

It's the other way round



The break up of anything or the creation of anything on Nationalist grouds would be as bad as Partition.

[Main Street]

A side issue but I see Greenland voted the other day overwhelmingly for an increase in its autonomy from Denmark.

A brave decision considering oil exploration has not revealed substance yet
This level of autonomy eventually puts an end to the subvention from Denmark of $380m p/a,
approx   $7,500  per person.

In contrast the UK Gov subvents NI to the tune of  $7.5bn p/a
approx $4,000 per person

[lynchbhoy]

I am sure there would have to be a referrendum in (the South of) Ireland to see if they were to accept NI

It's the other way round


The break up of anything or the creation of anything on Nationalist grouds would be as bad as Partition.

I'd expect there may have to be one in both places , Ireland would have to have the vote to see if the consensus was to accept the north, and obv ni woul dhave to have its own vote to see if the majority wish to do so.

I'd expect that the unification would only happen with a large sweetner from England, EU and potentially UN & USA also.
(USA and UN as they have always been meddling in the politics of Ireland and will be asked to assist in its 'peaceful reunification'  -like the financing poured into Germany and Japan post 1945)
Imo

[nifan]

The americans occupied Japan after 1945, which i assume is part of the reason for the money spent there.

[Roger]

The break up of anything or the creation of anything on Nationalist grouds would be as bad as Partition.

Why would a break up of anything on Nationalist grounds be bad?  How bad is Partition?

[Donagh]

In contrast the UK Gov subvents NI to the tune of  $7.5bn p/a
approx $4,000 per person

Still considerably less than Irish government subvention of the BMW region.

[lynchbhoy]

The americans occupied Japan after 1945, which i assume is part of the reason for the money spent there.

more guilt I'd say after dropping the bomb....same with germany and the massive us investment there after ww2.