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Messages - David McKeown

#46
General discussion / Re: The DUP thread
April 02, 2024, 11:40:27 AM
Quote from: general_lee on April 01, 2024, 04:13:58 PMI'm no legal expert but surely the fact the Mrs has also been charged with aiding and abetting suggests there's a strong chance of a successful conviction?

Quote from: AustinPowers on April 01, 2024, 01:07:31 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on April 01, 2024, 12:37:24 PMHe could end up in jail here. I think there is a strong chance he will.

The fact he was  charged suggests to  me that he will. 

Statistically there's more likelihood of you being convicted if you have been reported and prosecution decision issues to go by way of summons albeit the differences aren't startling in the grand scheme of things.  Statistics would show about 81% of charge sheet decisions result in successful prosecutions and about 89% of cases that go by way of summons do.
#47
I think there is also an element of the nature of the rulebook itself.  The fundamental rules of for example association football haven't really been tweaked much over the years.  A few interpretations have but the rules themselves have remained pretty consistent.  Its the same in most sports.  In the GAA it seems like it changes on an annual basis. Sometimes only subtly yet those minor tweaks can have significant effects.

It can be hard for most people to keep up. I remember most of the Armagh fans around me being very curious why Armagh were awarded a penalty against Cavan when the foul was clearly outside the large square, it was due to it being a black card offence denial of goalscoring opportunity within the 21.

On top of that the association's approach to how to tweak rules has been inconsistent over the years with the make up of the relevant committees changing drastically over the years. As a result it can lead to questions over what is intended by some of the rules and the approach that should be used to interpreting them. The double bounce that wasn't a double bounce for that goal by Kerry v Dublin (i think it was last year) being a prime example.

Finally I don't think there's a permanent committee or person whose job it is to officially explain a decision or an interpretation the way there is in the NFL or association football.  I think someone like that would help as well
#48
GAA Discussion / Re: Division 2 2024
April 01, 2024, 11:09:29 AM
Quote from: statto on April 01, 2024, 10:29:29 AM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 31, 2024, 03:48:00 PMDonegal deserved to win but Armagh were awful. Falling back in to all the old habits I thought they had moved away from this year (Louth match excepted).

The manner of the defeat against a Donegal who will get much better is hard to take. I'd no longer be confident of an Ulster final let alone hoping for something more. 
having saw down Fermanagh and antrim they should be making it with bit to spare.

In fairness I was maybe a little raw after the match but I am not as confident as I was before yesterday
#49
Quote from: Armagh18 on March 31, 2024, 06:49:53 AMI think we're capable if we played to our best of beating Derry and given Kerry are in around the same level them as well. Laugh away but we drew with Derry after 90 minutes of football last year. Would imagine the Dubs would need to have a fair off day for us (or anyone else tbh) to beat them.

Equally we could very easily lose to the likes of Tyrone or Donegal.

After today I wouldn't even be confident of getting out of the group.
#50
GAA Discussion / Re: Division 2 2024
March 31, 2024, 03:48:00 PM
Donegal deserved to win but Armagh were awful. Falling back in to all the old habits I thought they had moved away from this year (Louth match excepted).

The manner of the defeat against a Donegal who will get much better is hard to take. I'd no longer be confident of an Ulster final let alone hoping for something more. 
#51
General discussion / Re: The DUP thread
March 30, 2024, 09:58:37 AM
Quote from: red hander on March 30, 2024, 01:59:59 AM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 30, 2024, 12:49:23 AM
Quote from: screenexile on March 29, 2024, 12:10:51 PMYou're not allowed to name defendants for Sexual offences in the North.

Yes you are. You aren't allowed to name complainants

You can't name defendants if doing so identifies the complainants (ie sex offences committed within a family). However, if the complainants waive their right to anonymity, then the defendants can be named.

Yes jigsaw identification.  You cant publish any details that could lead to the identification of a complainant.  So the way that is usually done is if there's a familial relationship the press might say a man has appeared in court accused of raping his grandmother for example or Joe Bloggs has appeared in court accused of rape (but then provide no details as to the relationship with the complainant).  In the Donaldson case now that his name is out there, it will not be allowed to publish any details relating to the connection if any between him and the complainants.
#52
General discussion / Re: The DUP thread
March 30, 2024, 12:49:23 AM
Quote from: screenexile on March 29, 2024, 12:10:51 PMYou're not allowed to name defendants for Sexual offences in the North.

Yes you are. You aren't allowed to name complainants
#53
GAA Discussion / Re: Sam Maguire permutations 2024
March 26, 2024, 11:45:03 AM
Quote from: Muck Savage on March 26, 2024, 01:11:07 AM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 25, 2024, 06:52:43 PM
Quote from: Blowitupref on March 25, 2024, 01:37:33 PM

See this confuses it a bit. Unless TG4 has a crystal ball as Westmeath can still leap frog Down if they win next week. Strangely TG4 already have Armagh leapfrogging Donegal as well.


top right of the graphic, "As it stands"
Lots can change between now and the provincial final line-up


But it wasn't correct as it stood.
#54
GAA Discussion / Re: Sam Maguire permutations 2024
March 25, 2024, 06:52:43 PM
Quote from: Blowitupref on March 25, 2024, 01:37:33 PM

See this confuses it a bit. Unless TG4 has a crystal ball as Westmeath can still leap frog Down if they win next week. Strangely TG4 already have Armagh leapfrogging Donegal as well.
#55
GAA Discussion / Re: Sam Maguire permutations 2024
March 25, 2024, 12:35:25 AM
Quote from: grounded on March 24, 2024, 06:11:46 PM
Quote from: Itchy on March 24, 2024, 05:45:15 PMAccording to radio 1 today, they said Down secured All Ireland football for this season. But that's not necessarily true. A lot of people not up to speed on how this is done

On the laws of probabilities as it stands, For Down to qualify for Sam, they obviously need to win the division 3 title and are reliant on Louth reaching the provincial final in Leinster.
    Due to the Munster draw, If Cork had of continued their earlier league performances and been relegated, this would have freed up another spot.


Does the higher ranking go to the division 3 winner or the higher placed team in the league?

If it's higher placed team in the league then Down are ranked 15th. Munster will produce at least one finalist outside the top 16. Ulster and Connacht likely won't (although might) so realistically it comes down to who makes it to the final in Leinster from the non Dublin side of the draw. Anyone other than Louth would push Down out of the all Ireland unless they make the Ulster final.

Would down prefer not to be in the Tailtean?
#56
GAA Discussion / Re: RG at arms length
March 23, 2024, 09:39:23 PM
Quote from: Main Street on March 23, 2024, 08:56:47 PM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 23, 2024, 06:46:44 PMThe DRA decision on over turning the suspension is illuminating on a lot that has been discussed here.

From memory (as I haven't read the decision since it was published) RG stood down voluntarily from Derry role shortly after the allegations surfaced. Ulster GAA initially incorrectly thought this was from all GAA roles and were subsequently slow to disbar him.

RG was disbarred through rules dealing with adult safeguarding which conflicted with and did not explicitly disallow the rules in the official guide (unlike the rules relating to child safeguarding). They were therefore void.

On a more general point. The GAA are duty bound to investigate any complaint about any member to the best of their ability if that complaint has the potential to raise safeguarding issues.
Safeguarding issues do not apply to Rory Gallagher.
QuoteThe GAA are not bound by criminal court decisions where there is a higher burden of proof and will make all decisions on the balance of probabilities.

Family courts are confidential and the GAA will not be given information in respect of them. The outcome of the family courts is largely irrelevant as a result. It was mentioned here that abusive fathers are more likely to get custody than unsuitable mothers. That isn't really accurate. It's not a zero sum equation. If the court has concerns over both parents it's more likely to place children into care or into the care of other suitable family members.
It is accurate in cases  which would resemble  the type of RG v Nicola and apparently there are many of these type of cases.  RG was not charged with any abuse. We are not talking about a dodgy Davy Tweed looking for custody after being cleared of all charges on a technicality, after spending 4 years in jail and the prosecutor dropped the case due to lack of something.
In a situation where you have a determined, combatant, solid articulate father, with no case of abuse to answer to,  with boxes of references and more than competent legal representation  versus a partner who has allegedly (but crucially not proven) suffered long term abuse and has acquired an addiction of sorts. The father would  most likely gain custody even if decent testimony was offered  to support amother's claims of abuse.
What I am saying is that a father being awarded custody does not vindicate the father from allegations of spousal abuse as is being claimed by some posters here.



[/quote]

Sorry why do they not apply?  Particularly given he was disbarred by the Ulster Adult Safeguarding Panel and his appeal to the DRA was against that panel.

I also don't think we can generalise but my experience albeit I would not profess to be an expert in family courts is that they are particularly conservative and will nearly always not grant full custody to fathers if there has been any form of abuse alleged and certainly will not do so without a thorough and comprehensive investigation involving many specialists in the field.  The court is legally obligated to focus on the welfare of the child. The court will hear from social workers, often the children will be separately represented etc etc. That said it also shouldn't be seen as vindication because again the court is focused on the welfare of the child
#57
General discussion / Re: Insurance
March 23, 2024, 07:20:26 PM
Quote from: JoG2 on March 22, 2024, 02:33:39 PMI enjoy the fact that speeding penalty points stay on your record for 4 years, but insurance companies keep them on their records for 5 years.. Nice wee additional earner for them

In Northern Ireland penalty points will appear on your licence for 4 years if imposed at the roadside or 5 years if imposed at court.  In either scenario they will only count for 3 years from date of incident.
#58
GAA Discussion / Re: RG at arms length
March 23, 2024, 06:46:44 PM
The DRA decision on over turning the suspension is illuminating on a lot that has been discussed here.

From memory (as I haven't read the decision since it was published) RG stood down voluntarily from Derry role shortly after the allegations surfaced. Ulster GAA initially incorrectly thought this was from all GAA roles and were subsequently slow to disbar him.

RG was disbarred through rules dealing with adult safeguarding which conflicted with and did not explicitly disallow the rules in the official guide (unlike the rules relating to child safeguarding). They were therefore void.

On a more general point. The GAA are duty bound to investigate any complaint about any member to the best of their ability if that complaint has the potential to raise safeguarding issues.

The GAA are not bound by criminal court decisions where there is a higher burden of proof and will make all decisions on the balance of probabilities.

Family courts are confidential and the GAA will not be given information in respect of them. The outcome of the family courts is largely irrelevant as a result. It was mentioned here that abusive fathers are more likely to get custody than unsuitable mothers. That isn't really accurate. It's not a zero sum equation. If the court has concerns over both parents it's more likely to place children into care or into the care of other suitable family members.
#59
GAA Discussion / Re: Division 2 2024
March 17, 2024, 02:51:41 PM
Quote from: JoG2 on March 17, 2024, 11:25:07 AM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 17, 2024, 07:51:41 AM
Quote from: tintin25 on March 17, 2024, 07:43:47 AM
Quote from: SouthOfThe Bann on March 16, 2024, 09:42:34 PMBest Case Scenario is Below

Provincial Finalists & Tailteann Cup winners as follows

1. Derry
2. Armagh
3. Kerry
4. Clare
5. Dublin
6. Louth
7. Galway
8. Mayo
9. Meath

Remaining 7 Sides

10. Tyrone
11. Donegal
12. Roscommon
13. Monaghan
14. 3rd in Division 2 - Likely Cavan
15. 4th in Division 2 - Likely Cork
16. 5th in Division 2 (or 6th if Meath Finish top 5)  - or Division three winner if Louth make provincial Final - Likely Down

**Winning Division three will actually be enough in this scenario if Louth stay up in division two and get into a provincial final**



Has entry criteria changed because I don't think winning Division 3 got you in previously?

It doesn't get you in automatically but it leaves you as either the 15th or 16th ranked team depending on where the Tailtean cup winners end up. That might be good enough this year given the provincial draws.

If you're sitting around 15th / 16th in a given year and hoping to scrap into the Sam Maguire Cup, would you not be better just missing out and being one of the favourites for the Tailtean?

I suppose that varies county to county and where you are in your developmental cycle.  Do you get buy in from players and supporters for the Tailtean etc
#60
GAA Discussion / Re: Division 2 2024
March 17, 2024, 09:34:21 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on March 17, 2024, 08:08:46 AMIve lost a lot of faith & interest in Armagh this year. Near half way through D1 last season I remember discussing how we should push on and try and win the league. We ended up relegated and then doubled down on the disappointment in the USFC & AI series. This year's league cakewalk just reinforces what a waste its been. Who can tell if any lessons have been learned?

I'm actually quite the opposite, the year in Division 2 has to me at least allowed Armagh to develop and hone a new game plan as well as unearth/develop a few new players. I'm not sure that would have been possible in Division 1. The proof of the pudding Will obviously be in the eating but I'm more satisfied with a league campaign than I have been in nearly 20 years.