Messages

To a point but this deal (~13% and no workload agreement) is going to fly over the finishing line without a bother.
I don't think, say, 4% and an agreed workload solution would.
Money talks.

I think they see the money as a given but don't want to return to the previous levels of bureaucracy.

Had pints with a few teachers over the weekend. Seems they are more interested in a workload solution which is not on the table, and the Union's are mis-reading their membership because they think getting them a few more quid is the answer to teachers woes.

SF got a review in the Financial times :
A referendum in 10 years but  only the Brits can  call one and they will only do so if there is big shift in public opinion

SF is gaslighting voters on unity. It will happen but not when SF want it to happen.

It's not completely outlandish for SF to aspire to unity in a decade. Less than a decade ago it would have seemed unlikely that Brexit would happen or Trump would get to the White House, but circumstances conspired and they did happen.

It is not under SF's control . That is the point.
They can promise all they want but they cannot deliver

That's right, it's not directly under their control, obviously, but somebody has to talk about it as a serious proposition, because it is plausible.

It will happen when the UK economy collapses, unionist pensions vaporise and house prices in Ballymena go tits up. Not before

None of those things will happen. It will happen when the majority of people are in favour of what's on offer on the island, rather than having things done to them from London. Every year that the pendulum swings a little more.

The UK economy is going to collapse. The UK is borrowing money to pay the bills.

I've been hearing this for a long time...and no word of it yet.

There is a thing called the current account deficit
It happens when a country cannot pay all of its bills.
The UK has had a current account deficit for the last decade.
Truss wanted to issue debt that wasn't backed by taxes and the markets refused to lend it to her.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/current-account-to-gdp

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/10/04/uk-governments-u-turn-on-tax-cut-wont-placate-markets-says-analyst.html
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/10/06/the-reality-is-the-uk-is-a-low-growth-ecobonmy-fund-manager.html
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/10/20/uks-political-instability-related-to-brexit-luxembourg-pm-says.html

What was ROI's current account deficit in 2010 Seafoid? And what is the UK's current deficit? Just to give a little perspective to things?

Ireland went through a very bad period and came out of it. The UK left the EU and has gone backwards.
The assessment is not based on one thing. Sterling is trading like the currency of a poor country. The UK is low growth economy. There is way too much debt.

People in Ireland were Unionist until something really shocking happened. That was 1916.
Unionists in the North will be loyal to the UK until something really shocking happens.

Did you get the figures? I can help you if you'd like.
Public dept in ROI was 100% of GDP in 2010.
Don't get me wrong things aren't rosey in the forecast for the UK. But they're still a strong market and talk of a collapse is bollix.

You don't have to agree with me but if you want to me to believe that it's bollocks you have to prove it. What data are basing your assessment on ?

The thing about the people who are calling the shots in the UK is that they don't care about anyone, not English people, not middle class people and not anyone living in the North. Unionists don't understand that yet but they will.  Brexit was not about freedom. It was about giving a small group of people the right to pump sewage into rivers.

The second verse of the UK national anthem is a warning

https://www.mylondon.news/news/uk-world-news/national-anthem-full-lyrics-including-25051609
 O Lord our God arise,
 scatter our* enemies, and make them fall!
Confound their politics, frustrate their knavish tricks,
on Thee our hopes we fix, God save us all.

lol you make a hyperbole claim. I disagreed and it's down to me to prove it?? Really?

By the way the figures you wouldn't quote earlier, ROI deficit was over 13% in 2010. Current deficit in Uk is around 3%. And reduced towards the end of 2023.

The UK is a 2.2 trillion pounds economy.  It would be some banger of a collapse.

SF got a review in the Financial times :
A referendum in 10 years but  only the Brits can  call one and they will only do so if there is big shift in public opinion

SF is gaslighting voters on unity. It will happen but not when SF want it to happen.

It's not completely outlandish for SF to aspire to unity in a decade. Less than a decade ago it would have seemed unlikely that Brexit would happen or Trump would get to the White House, but circumstances conspired and they did happen.

It is not under SF's control . That is the point.
They can promise all they want but they cannot deliver

That's right, it's not directly under their control, obviously, but somebody has to talk about it as a serious proposition, because it is plausible.

It will happen when the UK economy collapses, unionist pensions vaporise and house prices in Ballymena go tits up. Not before

None of those things will happen. It will happen when the majority of people are in favour of what's on offer on the island, rather than having things done to them from London. Every year that the pendulum swings a little more.

SF got a review in the Financial times :
A referendum in 10 years but  only the Brits can  call one and they will only do so if there is big shift in public opinion

SF is gaslighting voters on unity. It will happen but not when SF want it to happen.

It's not completely outlandish for SF to aspire to unity in a decade. Less than a decade ago it would have seemed unlikely that Brexit would happen or Trump would get to the White House, but circumstances conspired and they did happen.

It is not under SF's control . That is the point.
They can promise all they want but they cannot deliver

That's right, it's not directly under their control, obviously, but somebody has to talk about it as a serious proposition, because it is plausible.

SF got a review in the Financial times :
A referendum in 10 years but  only the Brits can  call one and they will only do so if there is big shift in public opinion

SF is gaslighting voters on unity. It will happen but not when SF want it to happen.

It's not completely outlandish for SF to aspire to unity in a decade. Less than a decade ago it would have seemed unlikely that Brexit would happen or Trump would get to the White House, but circumstances conspired and they did happen.

I had to listen very carefully to make any sense of what Feeney was trying to say.  He was trying to make points but always seemed to stop short and leave it hanging with a big 'you know what I mean', look on his face. Wasn't really clear at all what he was on about.

I'm all for pay rises for front line workers. Pity though that so much public money is wasted on bluffers and red tape.

Totally agree. Looking at the team sheet there are some very good footballers in that team. But there are levels - good players in their own club environment, but collectively against a Tyrone or a Derry we are miles off.  I still think Conchuir Johnston is our best chance and he would've been a big miss yesterday.  He can't turn the ship around single handedly, but he's the nearest thing we have to a special player that a team could be built around.

I might be wrong, but I think that age group got wiped out by Donegal in the minor championship a couple of years ago and we had the same debate

Regardless of the opposition, it's a desperate score line.  Many many factors including a half-arsed U20 club competition dogged by apathy.

Missed a couple of conversions, lost a couple of important lineouts and never hit the heights. A recipe for being pipped at the post.

[I can't see how the British are let off with putting in no more money here, Euros or not.]

If the Euro soccer doesn't happen due to no more £s from the Brits then provide what you can with the funds available..new pitch, 5,000 seat stand, some terracing.

Imagine thinking a GAA style stadium straight from the 60s would be sufficient going forward for years... Clones needs replaced, an Ulster final location is needed. Your suggestion ain't it

No Brit money = no Euro soccer = GAA have £80m (possibly plus our €50m).
Who then is going to pay the extra £75m to build a 34k capacity Ulster Final Stadium?
Just asking a realistic question

First off, the GAA requirements are not the full cost of the stadium. GAA needs are far less than the UEFA standard, so if no Euros, or they don't want to host UEFA matches or such in future, then the cost gets revised down quite a bit from the silly figures being bandied about the place. I can't see how the British are let off with putting in no more money here, Euros or not. The original NI executive allowance is very far below inflation levels, and in order for some sort of stadium to be built, they will come in with something. I can't see how it will be swallowed politically if Ireland chumps in with 50million a few weeks ago and they do nothing, yet will get the tax proceeds of a stadium there. A very good stadium can be built with no Euros, but the point being is for a little bit more, the Euros can be done and you leave a modern legacy stadium there for all and paid off nearly immediately.

Well, they have continually underfunded the north  for years , so  not stumping up money for Casement would be  nothing new.

Oh absolutely, but getting one upped by the Irish government? I can't see it

Heaton Harris' change of tone was to say we changed our mind on HS2 because costs spun out of control, so we may have to change our mind here - and there were a hell of a lot of votes at risk with HS2. It's election year and everything the Tories say will be put through the election filter first, not that Casement would register on any British voters list of worries. If they renege, it will have zero consequences for their vote in Britain.

[If there's grounds for the GAA to negotiate on the grounds that this additional spend to upgrade to UEFA specification is not something they should have to foot then IMO they'd be well within their rights]

How can it go from £80m to over £300m in a few years?

That's mad Ted.

It's only a 30, 000 seater stadium.  Imagine if it was 60 000.

Begs the question, how much would a 20, 000 seater cost to build?

Well Spurs stadium is 60k and it cost over a billion!! Not saying this is similar spec but gives you an idea.

Evertons new stadium is 55K and it's costing £500M.

Some QS or other reckons it would cost just over £200M to build Casement if it was purely specified for GAA games, but if you add in the additional requirements for a UEFA spec'd stadium then it could cost closer to £300M to complete.

If there's grounds for the GAA to negotiate on the grounds that this additional spend  to upgrade to UEFA specification is not something they should have to foot then IMO they'd be well within their rights.

Obviously they aren't footing it. They aren't budging beyond £15m.

They are also treading a tightrope of "No bother, we'll use one of the good to go grounds we have on the reserve list."

That's a starting position that £15M, I'd hardly expect Jarlath to come out and say that Antrim GAA are going to cough up another £30M or the likes.

A decade later, this is our "starting position"?

[If I'm wrong and it is £300m (which i doubt) then lets look at it again and reduce it or whatever it takes]

You are all getting your knickers in a twist...the cost is pure speculation and people have added £120m to it in 2 weeks, I'll not be surprised it's Unionist led. The cost will more likely be £180-£200m which is estimated, the Principal Contractor will likely get a few more million from CE's and EW's etc. Until it's tendered and prices come back everyone is just picking a number and doubling it.
If I'm wrong and it is £300m (which i doubt) then lets look at it again and reduce it or whatever it takes but until then stop guessing the price and wait and see. Material prices have roughly doubled and salaries too in 12 years or so, on that basis and the initial costing of £80m i'm guessing (and adding another bit to it) is between £180m-£200m

Why do you say that? Do you have a figure that you wouldn't go past? No, the cost does not bother me.

I'm taking from your post that it's somewhere between £200m and £300m? I'm basing my estimate on salaries and material costs from it's initial costing. As above i'm going for £180m - £200m

My view is the stadium needs built. For Antrim and for West Belfast, I would love to have what they're proposing and be proud of it. Showing it off to the World. However, if that is not feasible then get something built that is. I would love nothing more than the Irish Government to stomp up the additional money for this just to rub the bitter bastids noses in it, that would send them over the edge.
If this stadium is never built as stated above this money will not go to Health and infrastructure as it's a different pot of money, if they were to do that it would be a grain of sand to their budget and wouldn't change a thing.

Lovely sentiment, but Antrim GAA leadership gave it away which was unforgivable.  I see no guarantee that Antrim will have much access to it in future. It really is a shambles of the highest order.  The posters who said it 'will' be built and the money 'will' be found - it looks like a bigger mess than ever now.