Westminster Election 12th December 2019

Started by Ambrose, October 29, 2019, 02:24:04 PM

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seafoid

Quote from: yellowcard on November 06, 2019, 07:03:35 PM
That's a seat now likely going to a pro Brexit DUP voter so will negate any loss that DUP will suffer in South Belfast or elsewhere.

General election 2017: North Down Party    Candidate    Votes    

   Independent..........Sylvia Hermon..........16,148    
   DUP.........................Alex Easton..............14,940    
   Alliance...................Andrew Muir..............  3,639    
   Green (NI)..............Steven Agnew.............2,549    
   NI Conservatives....Frank Shivers.............    941    
   Sinn Féin.................Thérèse McCartney........531    
   SDLP........................Caoímhe McNeill.............400    
   Independent...........Gavan Reynolds.................3

Looks nailed on for a DUP candidate now.
The DUP made an arse of Brexit. £60 customs charges
for consignments going between NI and GB and vice versa. This will hurt them
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

marty34

Quote from: yellowcard on November 06, 2019, 05:08:19 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on November 06, 2019, 04:13:05 PM
The UDA/UVF probably have a reasonable say in who "working class" loyalists vote for in certain areas at least. If they don't appease them then they will lose voters.

That being said the last time they paired up was round the time of their "graduated response" around parades which still hasn't happened.

They will team up with the UDA/UVF if it is expedient for them to do so. That's fine but they can't then claim some high principled moral stance over paramilitarism links which is what they are doing in the case of Sean Kelly and SDLP. It is fairly clear already that Finucane will be the subject of a continual smear campaign in North Belfast which is just indicative of how much pressure that Dodds is under to hold that seat. I think Finucane is too clever to get involved in the mud slinging of personal attacks and needs to keep it about Brexit and Dodds record over the last 2-3 years as an arch Brexiteer/ERG apologist.

True, softly spoken and will do well with pulling in a few SDLP/Alluance and Green voters who are against Brexit - just to get Dodds out.

Rossfan

Quote from: yellowcard on November 06, 2019, 07:03:35 PM


General election 2017: North Down Party    Candidate    Votes    

   Independent..........Sylvia Hermon..........16,148    
   DUP.........................Alex Easton..............14,940    
   Alliance...................Andrew Muir..............  3,639    
   Green (NI)..............Steven Agnew.............2,549    
   NI Conservatives....Frank Shivers.............    941    
   Sinn Féin.................Thérèse McCartney........531    
   SDLP........................Caoímhe McNeill.............400    
   Independent...........Gavan Reynolds.................3

Looks nailed on for a DUP candidate now.

Will Gavan Reynolds be standing again?
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

marty34

Quote from: Harold Disgracey on November 06, 2019, 07:08:38 PM
Alliance did very well in the most recent council elections in North Down and Ards so they would have a decent chance.

Maybe more of a chance in north Down than east Belfast?

seafoid

North Down is the wealthiest constituency in NI afaik
They are not going to elect a DUP hard Brexit goon. The UDA vote wouldn't
be strong enough to swing it.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

imtommygunn

Sf I don't think you understand the no electorate. Economics not that big a concern.

dec

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-50316764

The DUP's David Simpson is standing down as MP for Upper Bann after a reported affair with a party colleague. He first won the seat in 2005 and has been a member of the party for decades. In a statement, he said: "In recent times it has been well publicised that I made a mistake that brought hurt to my wife and family as well as bringing heartache to another family." Mr Simpson said he was sorry for his "mistakes" and that his family had given him a "precious second chance".

"These were my mistakes and for them I am truly sorry," he said. "I have learned from my failings and my wife and children have given me a precious second chance and together we intend to look to the future together." Before becoming an MP, Mr Simpson was a member of the Stormont assembly and had also been a councillor for the party.
Image caption Mr Simpson was a member of the Stormont assembly before becoming an MP. He said the time was right to "pass the baton on".

DUP leader Arlene Foster thanked Mr Simpson for his years of consistent public service to voters and the party. "His service has been characterised by dedication to the people who elected him and his business skills and experience were used to the benefit of Upper Bann," she said. "I wish him well as he takes a new direction in life and I know that he will continue to use his many talents to the benefit of the party and the wider Northern Ireland cause."

It was a dramatic result in 2005, when he first snatched the Upper Bann seat from the then-Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble. It proved to be a landmark victory that showed how the DUP had eclipsed the UUP. Before becoming a politician, Mr Simpson had worked in his own meat business but came to prominence as the mayor of Craigavon and later an MLA. Away from the political world, he was a keen preacher and gospel singer.

In Parliament, he was not regarded as one of the party's high-flyers but was a regular contributor in the Commons and a member of the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee. He was opposed to same-sex marriage, but in 2013 during a debate in Parliament on legalising it, he said: "In the Garden of Eden it was Adam and Steve" before correcting himself to "Adam and Eve". In 2017, he claimed in election literature that he had visited soldiers in Afghanistan in 2010, but it later emerged this had not happened because he could not fit into a flak jacket.

It is not clear who the party will select to replace him to stand as a candidate for Upper Bann in the 12 December general election.

yellowcard

Quote from: imtommygunn on November 06, 2019, 08:51:01 PM
Sf I don't think you understand the no electorate. Economics not that big a concern.

Exactly. What might seem irrational to normal voters does not apply to DUP Brexit voters who want to play the Uber Brit. The only way I can see the DUP challenged in this constituency is if the UUP put in a strong high profile pro remain candidate and even then it would be difficult to see how they could out poll Sylvia Hermon or get close to her level of popular support.

Eamonnca1

Quote from: yellowcard on November 06, 2019, 09:14:52 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on November 06, 2019, 08:51:01 PM
Sf I don't think you understand the no electorate. Economics not that big a concern.

Exactly. What might seem irrational to normal voters does not apply to DUP Brexit voters who want to play the Uber Brit. The only way I can see the DUP challenged in this constituency is if the UUP put in a strong high profile pro remain candidate and even then it would be difficult to see how they could out poll Sylvia Hermon or get close to her level of popular support.

Which the UUP are not going to do. They could tack to the left (or less orange side) of the DUP and try to reclaim the center, but they always seem to try to out-DUP the DUP instead.

Minder

"When it's too tough for them, it's just right for us"

screenexile

Maitlis annihilating Brokenshire on Newsnight... great to see!!!

marty34

On radio today, they mentioned Arlene standing in Upper Bann - was a solicitor there in bygone days!!

armaghniac

Quote from: marty34 on November 07, 2019, 12:02:40 AM
On radio today, they mentioned Arlene standing in Upper Bann - was a solicitor there in bygone days!!

If her workwomenship was like that of leading the DUP there will be people there that don't really own their houses or aren't really divorced.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

drillsergeant

Firstly, best wishes to Sylvia Hermon really sad to see her stepping down. North Down now looks a complete banker for DUP. I heard rumours few weeks ago that Diane Dodds was going to run for that seat, however her name has popped up to run for Upper Bann.

Brexit Referendum 2016
Total electorate: 65,660
Turnout: 44,211 (67.3%)
Votes to REMAIN: 23,131 (52.4%)
Votes to LEAVE: 21,046 (47.6%).

NI Assembly Election 2017
DUP 14,152 (37.5%) 2 seats
UUP 8,115 (21.5%) 1 seat
Alliance 7,014 (18.6%) 1 seat
Green 5,178 (13.7%) 1 seat
Ind 1,369 (3.6%)
SDLP 679 (1.8%)
Con 641 (1.7%)
SF 591 (1.6%)

Westminster Election 2017
Sylvia Hermon (Ind) 16,148 (41.2%)
Alex Easton (DUP) 14,940 (38.1%)
Andrew Muir (Alliance) 3.639 (9.3%)
Steven Agnew (Green) 2,549 (6.5%)
Frank Shivers (Con) 941 (2.4%)
Therese McCartney (SF) 531 (1.4%)
Caoimhe McNeill (SDLP) 400 (1.0%)
Gavan Reynolds (Ind) 37 (0.1%)

After closing analysing the figures for this there is still hope for DUP to be defeated here. Could the Pro-Remain side run a independent candidate?? Does the UUP believe they can gain back this consistency? Finally does Alliance have a chance?? Views folks

seafoid

Quote from: imtommygunn on November 06, 2019, 08:51:01 PM
Sf I don't think you understand the no electorate. Economics not that big a concern.
At some point the UUP and Alliance will start taking Westminster seats off the DUP. The DUP
would need to be weakened for this to happen. We'll see what the voters think of the DUP's Brexit efforts shortly.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU