The Official Golf Thread

[Tony Baloney]

so as to jinx it, wee rory on the nose, and each way on matsuyama, woods and koepka.
money down drain

At least we know who to avoid 

I have some homework to do by lunchtime tomorrow! Kuchar, Day and A.n. Other e/w and possibly Spieth on the nose.

Forgot to put any money on today 

[Milltown Row2]

Harrington going ok on -1.
Lowry not so good on +4.

Good to know, otherwise we'd never know

[macdanger2]

Is there any money to be made in golf betting? You hear about professional gamblers in horse racing, where you can crunch the numbers or get the inside track (so to speak), but picking a winner in golf seems to be a crap shoot to me. Who would have put money on Padraig Harrington to win again?

I'd guess there's not a huge amount of people gambling professionally on golf as the tournaments are relatively infrequent. Some might include it as part of their portfolio because they have an interest but I'd be surprised if there were professional gamblers whose primary sport is golf.

Tennis and cricket are actually two of the biggest gambling sports although albeit perhaps not in Ireland.

My understanding of it is that in general, the professionals are not looking for an "inside line" as such, they're looking for the occasions where the bookie / exchange has under- or over-valued a particular bet and takes advantage of that (the idea being that if you always bet when you have better odds than the "theoretical" odds, then over time, you make a profit).

[leaveherinsir]

Im in the money already. Had Russell Henley e/w in the 1st round market at 70/1. Only got half tho as Garcia tied him in 6th. Still ok start.
I think the "smart money" would stay clear of the overall market esp before the tournament starts as a bad openning round can rule you out.
My fav bet this week is Tiger to miss the cut at 6/5.
Another big possibility is the 54 hole leader not winning. This is a big trend in golf this year.

[screenexile]

Spieth E/W @ 14s
McIlroy @ 5.5 to win
Lowry @ 13/2 best Rookie
Matsuyama E/W @ 60/1
Casey E/W @ 60/1

Still sitting OK with that although Lowry for best Rookie is looking like a long shot!

I enjoyed yesterday when him and Koepka both took on 11 and put the shot in the water. Nickalus was commentating for Lowry saying "If you've played here before you don't go left on 11!".

[deiseach]

Is there any money to be made in golf betting? You hear about professional gamblers in horse racing, where you can crunch the numbers or get the inside track (so to speak), but picking a winner in golf seems to be a crap shoot to me. Who would have put money on Padraig Harrington to win again?

I'd guess there's not a huge amount of people gambling professionally on golf as the tournaments are relatively infrequent. Some might include it as part of their portfolio because they have an interest but I'd be surprised if there were professional gamblers whose primary sport is golf.

Tennis and cricket are actually two of the biggest gambling sports although albeit perhaps not in Ireland.

My understanding of it is that in general, the professionals are not looking for an "inside line" as such, they're looking for the occasions where the bookie / exchange has under- or over-valued a particular bet and takes advantage of that (the idea being that if you always bet when you have better odds than the "theoretical" odds, then over time, you make a profit).

Thanks for the considered response. I don't gamble but I find the science of gambling, for want of a better term, to be fascinating. Tennis is a good one for the smart bet, e.g. doing an accumulator of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray in the opening rounds of the grand slam tournaments. Some of the stories you read of piles of money going on specific results suggest the players are aware of this too!

[gallsman]

What did everyone make of Sky's presentation of it yesterday? I thought it was bloody awful. I didn't realise they were only showing it live from 8 and switched on at about 7. They spent so much time talking to and about Nicklaus that by the time the actual stuff started I only managed half on hour before turning off.

[Milltown Row2]

Is there any money to be made in golf betting? You hear about professional gamblers in horse racing, where you can crunch the numbers or get the inside track (so to speak), but picking a winner in golf seems to be a crap shoot to me. Who would have put money on Padraig Harrington to win again?

I'd guess there's not a huge amount of people gambling professionally on golf as the tournaments are relatively infrequent. Some might include it as part of their portfolio because they have an interest but I'd be surprised if there were professional gamblers whose primary sport is golf.

Tennis and cricket are actually two of the biggest gambling sports although albeit perhaps not in Ireland.

My understanding of it is that in general, the professionals are not looking for an "inside line" as such, they're looking for the occasions where the bookie / exchange has under- or over-valued a particular bet and takes advantage of that (the idea being that if you always bet when you have better odds than the "theoretical" odds, then over time, you make a profit).

My bosses nephew does very well on this type of betting, though bookies are very quick to cancel accounts when they see this pattern on their accounts... He has an account at almost every online bookmakers all separate accounts. Very complex but on a bad year takes in 90 grand

[Muzz]

Not sure its Augusta folks - I read an article not so long back on Augusta committee trying to get more TV coverage but that the agreement they had with CBS (might be wrong) wouldn't allow much more.  Will have a look for the article and paste here if I can find it.

Didn't take that long to find - http://www.golfdigest.com/blogs/the-loop/2015/04/masters-countdown-why-cbs-refu.html

[macdanger2]

Is there any money to be made in golf betting? You hear about professional gamblers in horse racing, where you can crunch the numbers or get the inside track (so to speak), but picking a winner in golf seems to be a crap shoot to me. Who would have put money on Padraig Harrington to win again?

I'd guess there's not a huge amount of people gambling professionally on golf as the tournaments are relatively infrequent. Some might include it as part of their portfolio because they have an interest but I'd be surprised if there were professional gamblers whose primary sport is golf.

Tennis and cricket are actually two of the biggest gambling sports although albeit perhaps not in Ireland.

My understanding of it is that in general, the professionals are not looking for an "inside line" as such, they're looking for the occasions where the bookie / exchange has under- or over-valued a particular bet and takes advantage of that (the idea being that if you always bet when you have better odds than the "theoretical" odds, then over time, you make a profit).

My bosses nephew does very well on this type of betting, though bookies are very quick to cancel accounts when they see this pattern on their accounts... He has an account at almost every online bookmakers all separate accounts. Very complex but on a bad year takes in 90 grand

Yeah, all the online bookies would put a reasonable amount into monitoring these types of accounts.

I believe there's a huge amount of work that goes into that kind of betting in terms of keeping your model up to date with the latest info, in-game trading, etc. I guess to make that kind of cash, you need to be putting in the hours

[Boycey]

Not sure its Augusta folks - I read an article not so long back on Augusta committee trying to get more TV coverage but that the agreement they had with CBS (might be wrong) wouldn't allow much more.  Will have a look for the article and paste here if I can find it.

Didn't take that long to find - http://www.golfdigest.com/blogs/the-loop/2015/04/masters-countdown-why-cbs-refu.html

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/04/why-does-the-masters-start-so-late-what-time-is-the-masters

[supersub]

Is there any money to be made in golf betting? You hear about professional gamblers in horse racing, where you can crunch the numbers or get the inside track (so to speak), but picking a winner in golf seems to be a crap shoot to me. Who would have put money on Padraig Harrington to win again?

I'd guess there's not a huge amount of people gambling professionally on golf as the tournaments are relatively infrequent. Some might include it as part of their portfolio because they have an interest but I'd be surprised if there were professional gamblers whose primary sport is golf.

Tennis and cricket are actually two of the biggest gambling sports although albeit perhaps not in Ireland.

My understanding of it is that in general, the professionals are not looking for an "inside line" as such, they're looking for the occasions where the bookie / exchange has under- or over-valued a particular bet and takes advantage of that (the idea being that if you always bet when you have better odds than the "theoretical" odds, then over time, you make a profit).

My bosses nephew does very well on this type of betting, though bookies are very quick to cancel accounts when they see this pattern on their accounts... He has an account at almost every online bookmakers all separate accounts. Very complex but on a bad year takes in 90 grand

Yeah, all the online bookies would put a reasonable amount into monitoring these types of accounts.

I believe there's a huge amount of work that goes into that kind of betting in terms of keeping your model up to date with the latest info, in-game trading, etc. I guess to make that kind of cash, you need to be putting in the hours

There are a small percentage of people earning a very good living from gambling, the rest are punters with gut instincts and favourites accumulators etc (which is why bookies are so rich!). To profit from it long term you need a serious model, time dedication and patience, as well as accounts with nearly every bookie out there. Matched betting and exploiting sign up bonuses and free bets are how most 'professional' gamblers will do it! Very few will make a living from straight out 'punter' betting.

[An Watcher]

I get the feeling that it's win or bust for Harrington. After winning 3 majors, second place finishes don't mean much to him. Other players would be happy with top ten finishes. The only way to explain when he blows up he really blows up

[gawa316]

Spieth running away with it

[Boycey]

Spieth running away with it

It's absolutely insane what this lad is doing at present. Big Ernie in third is nine shots behind 

Impressive as it is, it won't make for a great weekends viewing if it stays like this..